Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run

[UpandIn]

1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

You really need to look at Sveumrules' post.

Again, I really did. However as it had nothing to do with our struggles with RISP, it's not relevant to this. More than one thing can in fact go wrong during a season.

4 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

For most hitters, attempting to do so leads to worse results. Analytics has changed the way batters hit. Turning back the clock will result in worse production.

But yeah, I'd like to roll a 7 too.

Really? Trying to make contact with RISP and shortening up leads to worse results for "most hitters?"

I'd like to see anything that supports that. 

BABIP with RISP is higher than BA overall. 

So...seems like a difficult argument to make that making contact with runners in scoring position vs striking out would lead to worse results. 

But yeah, I'd rather not talk about shooting craps when talking Baseball. 

[yourout]

I blame those putrid City connect uniforms.

[yourout]

I blame those putrid City connect uniforms.

[Jim French Stepstool]

21 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

 

This isn't a multiple choice. The Brewer are an all or nothing team. That may produce a decent OPS, but it doesn't produce consistency. Is this NOT the main cause for excitement about hitters like Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz...because they can actually help us score different ways? Their athleticism, Ruiz's ability to get down a bunt, Frelick making contact, Mitchell...we've already seen what his speed can do to teams in games. 

 

Oh...and they should DEFINITELY give Ruiz some games at 2B next year in ST'ing or AAA...

Ah, consistency. It's a word I've brought up from time to time this season. There's been a lot of talk in this thread about hitting with RISP and rightfully so. But there were also many times this year there was a runner on 2B with no outs, and the inning ended with him still spot-welded there. Also the runner on 3B with less than two outs thing. Those might not have anything directly to do with RISP stats since you don't necessarily need a base hit to score the run, but I think an offense can run much more effectively when contact is made, when situations are respected. and when you have the type of skill set where it isn't out of your element to do so. That's where I become intrigued with a Frelick, a Turang, A Mitchell or Ruiz. No one knows what or how long the growing pains will be given the youth. But I get intrigued at the potential for more consistency.

Gotta say though, I'm really dubious about Ruiz getting reps at 2B.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

21 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

 

This isn't a multiple choice. The Brewer are an all or nothing team. That may produce a decent OPS, but it doesn't produce consistency. Is this NOT the main cause for excitement about hitters like Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz...because they can actually help us score different ways? Their athleticism, Ruiz's ability to get down a bunt, Frelick making contact, Mitchell...we've already seen what his speed can do to teams in games. 

 

Oh...and they should DEFINITELY give Ruiz some games at 2B next year in ST'ing or AAA...

Ah, consistency. It's a word I've brought up from time to time this season. There's been a lot of talk in this thread about hitting with RISP and rightfully so. But there were also many times this year there was a runner on 2B with no outs, and the inning ended with him still spot-welded there. Also the runner on 3B with less than two outs thing. Those might not have anything directly to do with RISP stats since you don't necessarily need a base hit to score the run, but I think an offense can run much more effectively when contact is made, when situations are respected. and when you have the type of skill set where it isn't out of your element to do so. That's where I become intrigued with a Frelick, a Turang, A Mitchell or Ruiz. No one knows what or how long the growing pains will be given the youth. But I get intrigued at the potential for more consistency.

Gotta say though, I'm really dubious about Ruiz getting reps at 2B.

 

[yourout]

55 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Ah, consistency. It's a word I've brought up from time to time this season. There's been a lot of talk in this thread about hitting with RISP and rightfully so. But there were also many times this year there was a runner on 2B with no outs, and the inning ended with him still spot-welded there. Also the runner on 3B with less than two outs thing. Those might not have anything directly to do with RISP stats since you don't necessarily need a base hit to score the run, but I think an offense can run much more effectively when contact is made, when situations are respected. and when you have the type of skill set where it isn't out of your element to do so. That's where I become intrigued with a Frelick, a Turang, A Mitchell or Ruiz. No one knows what or how long the growing pains will be given the youth. But I get intrigued at the potential for more consistency.

Gotta say though, I'm really dubious about Ruiz getting reps at 2B.

 

Need a stat for % of time a runner at 2nd with no outs or a runner at 3rd with one out end up scoring.

[yourout]

55 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Ah, consistency. It's a word I've brought up from time to time this season. There's been a lot of talk in this thread about hitting with RISP and rightfully so. But there were also many times this year there was a runner on 2B with no outs, and the inning ended with him still spot-welded there. Also the runner on 3B with less than two outs thing. Those might not have anything directly to do with RISP stats since you don't necessarily need a base hit to score the run, but I think an offense can run much more effectively when contact is made, when situations are respected. and when you have the type of skill set where it isn't out of your element to do so. That's where I become intrigued with a Frelick, a Turang, A Mitchell or Ruiz. No one knows what or how long the growing pains will be given the youth. But I get intrigued at the potential for more consistency.

Gotta say though, I'm really dubious about Ruiz getting reps at 2B.

 

Need a stat for % of time a runner at 2nd with no outs or a runner at 3rd with one out end up scoring.

[JohnBriggs12]

Not one mention of the lack of offense from the catching position?  

[JohnBriggs12]

Not one mention of the lack of offense from the catching position?  

[sveumrules]

55 minutes ago, yourout said:

Need a stat for % of time a runner at 2nd with no outs or a runner at 3rd with one out end up scoring.

Not sure if any place tracks % of times a run scored in each split, but with a runner on 2nd and no outs the Brewers 867 OPS ranked 5th. Only NYM, STL, PHI and HOU posted a higher OPS in the split. The Dodgers ranked 28th with a 571 OPS in this split.

Runner on 3rd and one out the Brewers 834 OPS ranked 20th, so they didn’t fare as well in that split, but it was also only 46 PAs, about 2% of the Brewers season total.

RE24 tracks how many runs a team “should have” scored if they had average performance in each of the 24 unique base/out states. Both BRef (+5.1) and FanGraphs (+8.6) had the Brewers offense slightly positive on the season.

We can try to parse different ways the offense could have done better to get those two extra wins needed to make the playoffs, but ultimately the position players improved their WAR from 18.9 in 2021 to 24.1 this year.

The pitching staff was a lot leakier, dropping from 26.3 rWAR in 2021 to 15.6 rWAR in 2022. 

[sveumrules]

55 minutes ago, yourout said:

Need a stat for % of time a runner at 2nd with no outs or a runner at 3rd with one out end up scoring.

Not sure if any place tracks % of times a run scored in each split, but with a runner on 2nd and no outs the Brewers 867 OPS ranked 5th. Only NYM, STL, PHI and HOU posted a higher OPS in the split. The Dodgers ranked 28th with a 571 OPS in this split.

Runner on 3rd and one out the Brewers 834 OPS ranked 20th, so they didn’t fare as well in that split, but it was also only 46 PAs, about 2% of the Brewers season total.

RE24 tracks how many runs a team “should have” scored if they had average performance in each of the 24 unique base/out states. Both BRef (+5.1) and FanGraphs (+8.6) had the Brewers offense slightly positive on the season.

We can try to parse different ways the offense could have done better to get those two extra wins needed to make the playoffs, but ultimately the position players improved their WAR from 18.9 in 2021 to 24.1 this year.

The pitching staff was a lot leakier, dropping from 26.3 rWAR in 2021 to 15.6 rWAR in 2022. 

[MilwaukeeBravesFan]

I would have liked to see them try Lindblom over Jason Alexander... watching him pitch in September stands out as the single least enjoyable part of this season for me. 

[MilwaukeeBravesFan]

I would have liked to see them try Lindblom over Jason Alexander... watching him pitch in September stands out as the single least enjoyable part of this season for me. 

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Really? Trying to make contact with RISP and shortening up leads to worse results for "most hitters?"

I'd like to see anything that supports that. 

BABIP with RISP is higher than BA overall. 

So...seems like a difficult argument to make that making contact with runners in scoring position vs striking out would lead to worse results. 

You have a choice. Either batters and hitting coaches have gotten more stupid or more stubborn by eschewing "shortening up" and other such things over the last 20-50 years, or they came to realize that it's not conducive to positive results. They can bunt more to move runners, but most batters suck at it (Mitchell and Ruiz are exceptions, and I hope they continue to do so when they play in the majors). They can steal more bases, though you have to be a pretty good base stealer to make it worth the risk. With so much swing and miss, I think hit-an-runs are rightfully avoided.

What your little league coach told you doesn't apply in MLB.

 

[Robocaller]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Really? Trying to make contact with RISP and shortening up leads to worse results for "most hitters?"

I'd like to see anything that supports that. 

BABIP with RISP is higher than BA overall. 

So...seems like a difficult argument to make that making contact with runners in scoring position vs striking out would lead to worse results. 

You have a choice. Either batters and hitting coaches have gotten more stupid or more stubborn by eschewing "shortening up" and other such things over the last 20-50 years, or they came to realize that it's not conducive to positive results. They can bunt more to move runners, but most batters suck at it (Mitchell and Ruiz are exceptions, and I hope they continue to do so when they play in the majors). They can steal more bases, though you have to be a pretty good base stealer to make it worth the risk. With so much swing and miss, I think hit-an-runs are rightfully avoided.

What your little league coach told you doesn't apply in MLB.

 

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Gotta say though, I'm really dubious about Ruiz getting reps at 2B.

I think it's ludicrous. OTOH, the decision to move him off 2B was a S.D. decision; I suppose it's conceivable that the Brewers have a different assessment, but if they did, they should have played him some at 2B after they acquired him.

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Gotta say though, I'm really dubious about Ruiz getting reps at 2B.

I think it's ludicrous. OTOH, the decision to move him off 2B was a S.D. decision; I suppose it's conceivable that the Brewers have a different assessment, but if they did, they should have played him some at 2B after they acquired him.

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

You have a choice. Either batters and hitting coaches have gotten more stupid or more stubborn by eschewing "shortening up" and other such things over the last 20-50 years, or they came to realize that it's not conducive to positive results. They can bunt more to move runners, but most batters suck at it (Mitchell and Ruiz are exceptions, and I hope they continue to do so when they play in the majors). They can steal more bases, though you have to be a pretty good base stealer to make it worth the risk. With so much swing and miss, I think hit-an-runs are rightfully avoided.

What your little league coach told you doesn't apply in MLB.

 

The past 50 years, huh? LOL...no, I don't have a choice. Batters and hitting coaches haven't gotten "more stupid," and eschewed "shortening," and putting the  ball in place with less than 2 outs. 

Where are you getting that from? You realize not every team is all or nothing like the Brewers, right?

That guys like Boggs, Gwynn, Altuve, Ichiro, Jeter...I mean, countless others, they all played in this time period as well?

The same time period when pitching has improved with deeper bullpen, more platoon matchup's, and a dozen other reasons, but when exactly was this conscious decision made that we're going to swing for the fences with 2 strikes, lets than 2 out and RISP? I missed that Memo?

 

But thank you for telling me what my little league coach told me in Little League doesn't apply?

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

You have a choice. Either batters and hitting coaches have gotten more stupid or more stubborn by eschewing "shortening up" and other such things over the last 20-50 years, or they came to realize that it's not conducive to positive results. They can bunt more to move runners, but most batters suck at it (Mitchell and Ruiz are exceptions, and I hope they continue to do so when they play in the majors). They can steal more bases, though you have to be a pretty good base stealer to make it worth the risk. With so much swing and miss, I think hit-an-runs are rightfully avoided.

What your little league coach told you doesn't apply in MLB.

 

The past 50 years, huh? LOL...no, I don't have a choice. Batters and hitting coaches haven't gotten "more stupid," and eschewed "shortening," and putting the  ball in place with less than 2 outs. 

Where are you getting that from? You realize not every team is all or nothing like the Brewers, right?

That guys like Boggs, Gwynn, Altuve, Ichiro, Jeter...I mean, countless others, they all played in this time period as well?

The same time period when pitching has improved with deeper bullpen, more platoon matchup's, and a dozen other reasons, but when exactly was this conscious decision made that we're going to swing for the fences with 2 strikes, lets than 2 out and RISP? I missed that Memo?

 

But thank you for telling me what my little league coach told me in Little League doesn't apply?

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

I think it's ludicrous. OTOH, the decision to move him off 2B was a S.D. decision; I suppose it's conceivable that the Brewers have a different assessment, but if they did, they should have played him some at 2B after they acquired him.

Kiiinda the point. You think it's ludicrous or based on a cursory reading of scouting reports from 2019, you think he probably can't play 2B? Do YOU think that based on anything you've seen or are you just telling everyone what readily available scouting reports have said about him not having soft hands. 

SD played him at 2B up until 2020 when they were planning on playing Abrams at SS and Rosario at 2B on the same AA team while also having Tatis Jr and Crowenworth at the MLB level. 

They had the ROY runner up and a generational talent they paid 340M to playing up the middle with two elite prospects on the same team as Ruiz. 

So your observations that people can't talk about seeing if Ruiz can play 2B come from...scouting reports that are a couple years old that pretty much sound like Chase Utley or Jeff Kent's?

And he probably can't/won't play 2B, but it ain't just "Ryan Braun to SS, Sal Frelick to 3B." 

[UpandIn]

7 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Ah, consistency. It's a word I've brought up from time to time this season. There's been a lot of talk in this thread about hitting with RISP and rightfully so. But there were also many times this year there was a runner on 2B with no outs, and the inning ended with him still spot-welded there. Also the runner on 3B with less than two outs thing. Those might not have anything directly to do with RISP stats since you don't necessarily need a base hit to score the run, but I think an offense can run much more effectively when contact is made, when situations are respected. and when you have the type of skill set where it isn't out of your element to do so. That's where I become intrigued with a Frelick, a Turang, A Mitchell or Ruiz. No one knows what or how long the growing pains will be given the youth. But I get intrigued at the potential for more consistency.

Gotta say though, I'm really dubious about Ruiz getting reps at 2B.

 

This is exactly it. It's as much situational awareness, baseball intelligence, call it what you want, as anything else. A HR in the 2nd inning with a man on 2nd base is great, a strikeout...it's just an out at that point.

Not being able to get a runner in from 2nd with 0 outs and your season on the line in back to back innings...kinda summed up our season.

It wasn't just one problem, it was several problems.

As for Ruiz at 2B, I have no idea what he looks like there. I haven't watched him. But I do know he's pretty clearly our 5th rated OF prospect and we've have pretty successful teams with Ricky Weeks and Keston Hiura at 2B.
 

I don't think it's a crazy idea to get Ruiz some games at 2B if he's in Nashville to start the year. But again, I'm not pretending to know definitively if he can be a viable option to occasionally at 2B or not. Tough to do without...again, actually seeing him play it, but it'd be nice if it was at least an option.

[Jim French Stepstool]

11 hours ago, Robocaller said:

 Either batters and hitting coaches have gotten more stupid or more stubborn by eschewing "shortening up" and other such things over the last 20-50 years, or they came to realize that it's not conducive to positive results. 

 

Or maybe, just maybe, batters have come to the mindset in recent decades that hitting for more power, more OPS leads to securing a bigger contract. And that's the priority.

That doesn't mean a many of them wouldn't suck at it either way, I'll admit that. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

11 hours ago, Robocaller said:

 Either batters and hitting coaches have gotten more stupid or more stubborn by eschewing "shortening up" and other such things over the last 20-50 years, or they came to realize that it's not conducive to positive results. 

 

Or maybe, just maybe, batters have come to the mindset in recent decades that hitting for more power, more OPS leads to securing a bigger contract. And that's the priority.

That doesn't mean a many of them wouldn't suck at it either way, I'll admit that. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

9 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

but when exactly was this conscious decision made that we're going to swing for the fences with 2 strikes, lets than 2 out and RISP? I missed that Memo?

 

 

Can't say exactly when it was made, but the train probably started to leave the station in the '70s when free agency became a bigger thing. $$$$$$$$.

[Jim French Stepstool]

9 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

but when exactly was this conscious decision made that we're going to swing for the fences with 2 strikes, lets than 2 out and RISP? I missed that Memo?

 

 

Can't say exactly when it was made, but the train probably started to leave the station in the '70s when free agency became a bigger thing. $$$$$$$$.