Article: Three Bad Decisions Sunk the Brewers' Playoff Run

[Robocaller]

56 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I would add to that... struggles getting clutch hits with RISP.  On Monday, the only reason why Adames hit the ball to right in the latter part of the game is because the pitch was outside.

With RISP (159 Games):

• 21st in PA 
• 26th in BAbip (.277)
• 16th in RBI
• 23rd in K% (26% -- worst is PIT at 30% and best is CLE at 21%; league average is 25%)
• tOPS+ is 121 which may be saying that the Brewers did well, or their typical OPS+ is not very good.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1&params=bases|RISP|ML|2022|bat|AB|

People need to stop bringing up hitting with RISP, because that wasn't the problem. They hit .235 overall and .246 with RISP.  So they hit BETTER with RISP.

[Robocaller]

56 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I would add to that... struggles getting clutch hits with RISP.  On Monday, the only reason why Adames hit the ball to right in the latter part of the game is because the pitch was outside.

With RISP (159 Games):

• 21st in PA 
• 26th in BAbip (.277)
• 16th in RBI
• 23rd in K% (26% -- worst is PIT at 30% and best is CLE at 21%; league average is 25%)
• tOPS+ is 121 which may be saying that the Brewers did well, or their typical OPS+ is not very good.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1&params=bases|RISP|ML|2022|bat|AB|

People need to stop bringing up hitting with RISP, because that wasn't the problem. They hit .235 overall and .246 with RISP.  So they hit BETTER with RISP.

[UpandIn]

29 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

People need to stop bringing up hitting with RISP, because that wasn't the problem. They hit .235 overall and .246 with RISP.  So they hit BETTER with RISP.

People need to stop telling people what they're allowed to talk about on here. This is probably the...5th or 6th time you've said this about a perfectly reasonable topic.

The average BA with RISP=.253
The leave average BA=.243

So...the Brewers were just as bad relative to the rest of the league with RISP as they were in BA. It most definitely WAS a problem. I don't think anyone's saying that was "THE" problem. There were multiple problems with this Brewers team. Their inability to add on runs or get runners from 2nd/3rd in with less than 2 outs, that was chief among them, PARTICULARLY the last month of the season. 

 

And obviously BA goes up with RISP. Teams play their IFs in, the pressure is on the pitchers, they're more likely to not be able to shift(tough to play a 3B or SS a couple steps to the left of 2nd with a man on 3rd). 

 

 

[UpandIn]

29 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

People need to stop bringing up hitting with RISP, because that wasn't the problem. They hit .235 overall and .246 with RISP.  So they hit BETTER with RISP.

People need to stop telling people what they're allowed to talk about on here. This is probably the...5th or 6th time you've said this about a perfectly reasonable topic.

The average BA with RISP=.253
The leave average BA=.243

So...the Brewers were just as bad relative to the rest of the league with RISP as they were in BA. It most definitely WAS a problem. I don't think anyone's saying that was "THE" problem. There were multiple problems with this Brewers team. Their inability to add on runs or get runners from 2nd/3rd in with less than 2 outs, that was chief among them, PARTICULARLY the last month of the season. 

 

And obviously BA goes up with RISP. Teams play their IFs in, the pressure is on the pitchers, they're more likely to not be able to shift(tough to play a 3B or SS a couple steps to the left of 2nd with a man on 3rd). 

 

 

[Robocaller]

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

People need to stop telling people what they're allowed to talk about on here. This is probably the...5th or 6th time you've said this about a perfectly reasonable topic.

The average BA with RISP=.253
The leave average BA=.243

So...the Brewers were just as bad relative to the rest of the league with RISP as they were in BA. 

 

And obviously BA goes up with RISP. Teams play their IFs in, the pressure is on the pitchers, they're more likely to not be able to shift(tough to play a 3B or SS a couple steps to the left of 2nd with a man on 3rd). 

 

 

You're right. I'm going to keep pimping bringing back Ryan Braun as our savior at 3B because: FREEDOM! ?
Did you see Sveum's post on the brewers hitting with RISP? It went beyond batting average and the Brewers look even better relative to other teams. What is a reasonable thing to say is the Brewers need to hit better*. Period, end of discussion. There is nothing about RISP that needs to be discussed.

*Though really they didn't hit that badly relative to other teams.

[Robocaller]

3 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

People need to stop telling people what they're allowed to talk about on here. This is probably the...5th or 6th time you've said this about a perfectly reasonable topic.

The average BA with RISP=.253
The leave average BA=.243

So...the Brewers were just as bad relative to the rest of the league with RISP as they were in BA. 

 

And obviously BA goes up with RISP. Teams play their IFs in, the pressure is on the pitchers, they're more likely to not be able to shift(tough to play a 3B or SS a couple steps to the left of 2nd with a man on 3rd). 

 

 

You're right. I'm going to keep pimping bringing back Ryan Braun as our savior at 3B because: FREEDOM! ?
Did you see Sveum's post on the brewers hitting with RISP? It went beyond batting average and the Brewers look even better relative to other teams. What is a reasonable thing to say is the Brewers need to hit better*. Period, end of discussion. There is nothing about RISP that needs to be discussed.

*Though really they didn't hit that badly relative to other teams.

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You're right. I'm going to keep pimping bringing back Ryan Braun as our savior at 3B because: FREEDOM! ?
Did you see Sveum's post on the brewers hitting with RISP? It went beyond batting average and the Brewers look even better relative to other teams. What is a reasonable thing to say is the Brewers need to hit better*. Period, end of discussion. There is nothing about RISP that needs to be discussed.

*Though really they didn't hit that badly relative to other teams.

Yeah...if the Braun thing was the ONLY issue I wouldn't have brought it up. Braun hasn't even been on the team for a couple years and literally ONE person ever thought that was a good idea. 

Edit--Also, I DID say about a perfectly REASONABLE topic. Feel free to use it again the next time 25 year deferred payments of 10M a year to Corbin Burnes in order to sign him to an extension is brought up.

And no, I did not see Svuem's post on the Brewers hitting with RISP. I saw him talk about a different issue with this team in this thread, but surely the point isn't that there was just ONE problem, right?
This team was bad or below average in a WHOLE lot of areas. 

How many times could we not get the run in on 2nd in extra innings? 

Just the last two games of the Marlins series they were 2 for 20 I think...fighting for their playoff life they couldn't get a runner in from 2nd with 0 outs in extra innings. 

 

This isn't a multiple choice. The Brewer are an all or nothing team. That may produce a decent OPS, but it doesn't produce consistency. Is this NOT the main cause for excitement about hitters like Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz...because they can actually help us score different ways? Their athleticism, Ruiz's ability to get down a bunt, Frelick making contact, Mitchell...we've already seen what his speed can do to teams in games. 

 

Oh...and they should DEFINITELY give Ruiz some games at 2B next year in ST'ing or AAA...

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, Robocaller said:

You're right. I'm going to keep pimping bringing back Ryan Braun as our savior at 3B because: FREEDOM! ?
Did you see Sveum's post on the brewers hitting with RISP? It went beyond batting average and the Brewers look even better relative to other teams. What is a reasonable thing to say is the Brewers need to hit better*. Period, end of discussion. There is nothing about RISP that needs to be discussed.

*Though really they didn't hit that badly relative to other teams.

Yeah...if the Braun thing was the ONLY issue I wouldn't have brought it up. Braun hasn't even been on the team for a couple years and literally ONE person ever thought that was a good idea. 

Edit--Also, I DID say about a perfectly REASONABLE topic. Feel free to use it again the next time 25 year deferred payments of 10M a year to Corbin Burnes in order to sign him to an extension is brought up.

And no, I did not see Svuem's post on the Brewers hitting with RISP. I saw him talk about a different issue with this team in this thread, but surely the point isn't that there was just ONE problem, right?
This team was bad or below average in a WHOLE lot of areas. 

How many times could we not get the run in on 2nd in extra innings? 

Just the last two games of the Marlins series they were 2 for 20 I think...fighting for their playoff life they couldn't get a runner in from 2nd with 0 outs in extra innings. 

 

This isn't a multiple choice. The Brewer are an all or nothing team. That may produce a decent OPS, but it doesn't produce consistency. Is this NOT the main cause for excitement about hitters like Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz...because they can actually help us score different ways? Their athleticism, Ruiz's ability to get down a bunt, Frelick making contact, Mitchell...we've already seen what his speed can do to teams in games. 

 

Oh...and they should DEFINITELY give Ruiz some games at 2B next year in ST'ing or AAA...

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

Edit--Also, I DID say about a perfectly REASONABLE topic.

we differ about what's reasonable. I don't think it's reasonable to complain about how the brewers are bad at something after it's proven they aren't. 

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

 

Edit--Also, I DID say about a perfectly REASONABLE topic.

we differ about what's reasonable. I don't think it's reasonable to complain about how the brewers are bad at something after it's proven they aren't. 

[UpandIn]

15 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

we differ about what's reasonable. I don't think it's reasonable to complain about how the brewers are bad at something after it's proven they aren't. 

Apparently we also differ about the word proven. 

[UpandIn]

15 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

we differ about what's reasonable. I don't think it's reasonable to complain about how the brewers are bad at something after it's proven they aren't. 

Apparently we also differ about the word proven. 

[Nola Beery]

16 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I and the person I was responding to were referring to the Yelich extension...

Ah. Thanks.

[Nola Beery]

16 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I and the person I was responding to were referring to the Yelich extension...

Ah. Thanks.

[Samurai Bucky]

14 hours ago, Robocaller said:

People need to stop bringing up hitting with RISP, because that wasn't the problem. They hit .235 overall and .246 with RISP.  So they hit BETTER with RISP.

So we are OK with them hitting .246?  Your point of them hitting .235 overall is also reflected in the fact that they were one of the worst teams in getting RISP to begin with.

I also think that you are reiterating this point:

• tOPS+ is 121 which may be saying that the Brewers did well, or their typical OPS+ is not very good.

[Samurai Bucky]

14 hours ago, Robocaller said:

People need to stop bringing up hitting with RISP, because that wasn't the problem. They hit .235 overall and .246 with RISP.  So they hit BETTER with RISP.

So we are OK with them hitting .246?  Your point of them hitting .235 overall is also reflected in the fact that they were one of the worst teams in getting RISP to begin with.

I also think that you are reiterating this point:

• tOPS+ is 121 which may be saying that the Brewers did well, or their typical OPS+ is not very good.

[NBBrewFan]

16 hours ago, Robocaller said:

People need to stop bringing up hitting with RISP, because that wasn't the problem. They hit .235 overall and .246 with RISP.  So they hit BETTER with RISP.

Well it's never a "THE" problem.  It's often "A"/"one" problem.  Their hitting with RISP is below average, but not significantly lower that it is a Major Issue.  There are probably 5 to 6 other problems with a larger impact so it is relatively low on the list.

[NBBrewFan]

16 hours ago, Robocaller said:

People need to stop bringing up hitting with RISP, because that wasn't the problem. They hit .235 overall and .246 with RISP.  So they hit BETTER with RISP.

Well it's never a "THE" problem.  It's often "A"/"one" problem.  Their hitting with RISP is below average, but not significantly lower that it is a Major Issue.  There are probably 5 to 6 other problems with a larger impact so it is relatively low on the list.

[Robocaller]

Let's think about this. I know it seems that hitting with RISP is hugely important, and it is. And it's uncontrollable, except by one way: replace bad hitters with good hitters, irrespective of the situation. Refer to Sveumrules post (in a different thread?).

1) The Brewers did not hit badly with RISP compared to how they hit overall. In fact they hit better.

2) The Brewers did not hit badly with RISP compared to other teams. In fact they did better than most teams.

3) Hitting with RISP (relative to all situations) is mostly a random event; few players are consistently bad or consistently good from year to year (and probability suggests that there should be a small number of such "lucky" and "unlucky" players) . 

4) Saying, "We need to improve our hitting with RISP," is like a Craps player saying, "I need to roll more sevens."

 

[Robocaller]

Let's think about this. I know it seems that hitting with RISP is hugely important, and it is. And it's uncontrollable, except by one way: replace bad hitters with good hitters, irrespective of the situation. Refer to Sveumrules post (in a different thread?).

1) The Brewers did not hit badly with RISP compared to how they hit overall. In fact they hit better.

2) The Brewers did not hit badly with RISP compared to other teams. In fact they did better than most teams.

3) Hitting with RISP (relative to all situations) is mostly a random event; few players are consistently bad or consistently good from year to year (and probability suggests that there should be a small number of such "lucky" and "unlucky" players) . 

4) Saying, "We need to improve our hitting with RISP," is like a Craps player saying, "I need to roll more sevens."

 

[UpandIn]

1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

1) The Brewers did not hit badly with RISP compared to how they hit overall. In fact they hit better.

Yes, but not relative to the rest of the league. 
The AVERAGE BA with RISP was ~10 points higher. So they were just as bad relative to the rest of the league at getting hits with RISP as they were getting hits to begin with. 

2 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

2) The Brewers did not hit badly with RISP compared to other teams. In fact they did better than most teams.

Not their batting average...which was the statistic both you and Svuem cited. 

They were well below league average. .246, league AVERAGE .253.
That's not better than most teams.

6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

 

4) Saying, "We need to improve our hitting with RISP," is like a Craps player saying, "I need to roll more sevens."

Ok....? 

The point was made that we struggled hitting with RISP. You said "people need to stop saying that," beacuse their BA was higher with RISP than it was on balance. And again, it is for all of Baseball. There are a myriad of reasons why it's easier to get a hit with RISP...in no small part to IF positioning. They'll often play their IF in, or they can't shift with a runner on 2nd. The pitcher is more apt to give in to a hitter so as to not put another runner on. 

WHATEVER it is, we were below average in the league in BA AND BA with RISP and the comment wasn't made "we need to improve our hitting with RISP," it was simply pointed out...that was a problem.

It's also nothing like saying "I Need to roll more sevens." It's more like saying, "we need hitters who can shorten up, put the ball in play, and particularly with less than 2 outs, get runners over and in."

 

Kolten Wong himself talked about how he liked how in Milwaukee, they didn't ask you to shorten up with 2 strikes...and that's obviously an organizational philosophy because...we were 26th in K rate?

 

There's a reason you want power pitchers with the Manfred runner on 2nd base. Because a strikeout is huge and can help you get out of the innings...or just help you get out of trouble anytime you're dealing with runners in scoring position and fewer than 2 outs. We were 26th in that category. That's just bad baseball.  

[UpandIn]

1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

1) The Brewers did not hit badly with RISP compared to how they hit overall. In fact they hit better.

Yes, but not relative to the rest of the league. 
The AVERAGE BA with RISP was ~10 points higher. So they were just as bad relative to the rest of the league at getting hits with RISP as they were getting hits to begin with. 

2 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

2) The Brewers did not hit badly with RISP compared to other teams. In fact they did better than most teams.

Not their batting average...which was the statistic both you and Svuem cited. 

They were well below league average. .246, league AVERAGE .253.
That's not better than most teams.

6 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

 

4) Saying, "We need to improve our hitting with RISP," is like a Craps player saying, "I need to roll more sevens."

Ok....? 

The point was made that we struggled hitting with RISP. You said "people need to stop saying that," beacuse their BA was higher with RISP than it was on balance. And again, it is for all of Baseball. There are a myriad of reasons why it's easier to get a hit with RISP...in no small part to IF positioning. They'll often play their IF in, or they can't shift with a runner on 2nd. The pitcher is more apt to give in to a hitter so as to not put another runner on. 

WHATEVER it is, we were below average in the league in BA AND BA with RISP and the comment wasn't made "we need to improve our hitting with RISP," it was simply pointed out...that was a problem.

It's also nothing like saying "I Need to roll more sevens." It's more like saying, "we need hitters who can shorten up, put the ball in play, and particularly with less than 2 outs, get runners over and in."

 

Kolten Wong himself talked about how he liked how in Milwaukee, they didn't ask you to shorten up with 2 strikes...and that's obviously an organizational philosophy because...we were 26th in K rate?

 

There's a reason you want power pitchers with the Manfred runner on 2nd base. Because a strikeout is huge and can help you get out of the innings...or just help you get out of trouble anytime you're dealing with runners in scoring position and fewer than 2 outs. We were 26th in that category. That's just bad baseball.  

[Robocaller]

6 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

 

They were well below league average. .246, league AVERAGE .253.
That's not better than most teams.  

You really need to look at Sveumrules' post.

7 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

It's also nothing like saying "I Need to roll more sevens." It's more like saying, "we need hitters who can shorten up, put the ball in play, and particularly with less than 2 outs, get runners over and in."

For most hitters, attempting to do so leads to worse results. Analytics has changed the way batters hit. Turning back the clock will result in worse production.

But yeah, I'd like to roll a 7 too.

 

 

[Robocaller]

6 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

 

They were well below league average. .246, league AVERAGE .253.
That's not better than most teams.  

You really need to look at Sveumrules' post.

7 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

It's also nothing like saying "I Need to roll more sevens." It's more like saying, "we need hitters who can shorten up, put the ball in play, and particularly with less than 2 outs, get runners over and in."

For most hitters, attempting to do so leads to worse results. Analytics has changed the way batters hit. Turning back the clock will result in worse production.

But yeah, I'd like to roll a 7 too.

 

 

[UpandIn]

1 minute ago, Robocaller said:

You really need to look at Sveumrules' post.

Again, I really did. However as it had nothing to do with our struggles with RISP, it's not relevant to this. More than one thing can in fact go wrong during a season.

4 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

For most hitters, attempting to do so leads to worse results. Analytics has changed the way batters hit. Turning back the clock will result in worse production.

But yeah, I'd like to roll a 7 too.

Really? Trying to make contact with RISP and shortening up leads to worse results for "most hitters?"

I'd like to see anything that supports that. 

BABIP with RISP is higher than BA overall. 

So...seems like a difficult argument to make that making contact with runners in scoring position vs striking out would lead to worse results. 

But yeah, I'd rather not talk about shooting craps when talking Baseball.