What should be the top priority in the off-season

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

13 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Right, "he's not significant"; except he's very significant. If we're going to be successful, he's going to have to be a key part of the equation. His contribution is that he's a high OBP hitter on a team that is otherwise severely lacking in that department. The key is the hitters behind him actually doing something other than striking out or hitting weak grounders. Keep it up, though!

Exactly! He's a core player, whether some here want to admit it or not. With what they are paying him for the duration of his contract, they are obligated to get as much of a return on that investment as possible. That means they need to fill spot around him with players who are going to complement what he can still do well. 

[UpandIn]

14 hours ago, Sixtolezcano said:

That’s like saying build around JJ Hardy. Yeli is a minor piece/player not very significant ( except for his salary).

Is this really that important? He's going to be here the next 6 years. So when building, his role on the team needs to be taken into consideration. The Brewers have like...28M on the books for 2024 and Yelich is 22M of that. 

So yeah, they'll have to build AROUND Yelich as they're not benching a productive hitter with 6 years left at 22M per(then 10 years of 2.3M per). 

 

Also...JJ Hardy was an All Star SS who played VERY good defense and hit for power. I wouldn't say he or Yeli are "not significant."

And I still haven't given up on Yelich at least returning to 2020 type production with his BABIP normalized over a full season...and likely some more hits due to teams not being able to play 3 IFers from 2nd-1B. 

But either way, if Yelich is the same as he's been the last two years, can't get the back right, he's still...objectively speaking, a player we're building our roster around...unless we throw Adames(plus ~30M) into a trade with a team like the Dodgers so they'll just take him off our hands...and I don't see that happening. 

[UpandIn]

10 hours ago, torts said:

Break open the piggy bank, mark.  Break. The. Piggy.

If he does, I would really prefer they use the contents of said Piggy Bank to retain a couple of our own young stars.

If only the Brewers current farm system lined up with 2 more years of team control for Burnes and Woodruff. There was a...Fangraphs article I read(I believe) that placed a Burnes extension in the 5/120 range and Woodruff in the 5/100 range. Both seem a bit low, but with revenues going up across MLB, I think they could afford one of those.

Adames...I've seen Baez comps, but Baez had an MVP runner up and 2 6+ WAR seasons...and was a FREE AGENT. So I'd put him more in the 6/90 price range. Especially with SO many talented young SS and a saturated SS market. 

I'd make those offers in that order, see how it goes and it if doesn't work, if there isn't mutual interest, I'd Josh Hader them. Let people know you're taking offers, but not actively shopping, hope you get a Hader like deal...but commensurate with two aces and a ~5 WAR SS....which is what I'd value him at given his age and trajectory.  

 

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

If he does, I would really prefer they use the contents of said Piggy Bank to retain a couple of our own young stars.

If only the Brewers current farm system lined up with 2 more years of team control for Burnes and Woodruff. There was a...Fangraphs article I read(I believe) that placed a Burnes extension in the 5/120 range and Woodruff in the 5/100 range. Both seem a bit low, but with revenues going up across MLB, I think they could afford one of those.

Adames...I've seen Baez comps, but Baez had an MVP runner up and 2 6+ WAR seasons...and was a FREE AGENT. So I'd put him more in the 6/90 price range. Especially with SO many talented young SS and a saturated SS market. 

I'd make those offers in that order, see how it goes and it if doesn't work, if there isn't mutual interest, I'd Josh Hader them. Let people know you're taking offers, but not actively shopping, hope you get a Hader like deal...but commensurate with two aces and a ~5 WAR SS....which is what I'd value him at given his age and trajectory.  

 

#1 Little chance Burnes takes a 5 year deal and there is no way he is barely more expensive than Woodruff. I just don't see that. I could definitely see Woodruff taking about 5/$120mil though.

#2 I honestly want nothing to do with an Adames extension. He couldn't even muster an OBP over .300 this year....no thanks. His offense is barely above average as is. Wait till age takes down his offense and defense. Dude will tank just like Baez.

[DR28]

16 hours ago, Hopper said:

Players you build around are core, producing players that have a bright future.  Yelich is none of those things.

He is just a guy, a guy that is going to suck all the life out of this team financially for the next 6 seasons.  He is 100% NOT the type of player you build around, but rather the type of player you hope and pray we can unload, some how, some way.  (I know, not going to happen)

Jesus, Idk why I bother talking about Yelich on this site anymore... Guess I'm the only one on here that still believes in him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

21 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Jesus, Idk why I bother talking about Yelich on this site anymore... Guess I'm the only one on here that still believes in him.

To be fair, many of those who drag Yelich give the appearance of hating absolutely everything about this organization.

[torts]

20 minutes ago, DR28 said:

Jesus, Idk why I bother talking about Yelich on this site anymore... Guess I'm the only one on here that still believes in him.

Lol I know!  I still believe in him too.  He's found his stride in leadoff this season!  

[sveumrules]

Since 2020 there are 340 players with at least 500 PAs. Among that sample Yelich ranks 121st in wRC+ (109) and 117th in WAR (4.6).

We’re now three calendar years, 328 games and 1,389 PAs removed from MVP calibre Yelich.

At this point, I think the best realistic hope is that he can hang on as a league average-ish player for as long as possible so his contract isn’t a complete zero.

I wouldn’t say all hope is gone that he at least returns to something like Marlins form if he gets out of the OF & moves to more of a primary DH role, but I’m definitely not counting on it either.

If he could get that wRC+ back up around the 122 it was with the Marlins he’d be a lot closer to breaking even on his salary. The only regular DHs with a higher wRC+ than that this year were Ohtani (147), Vogelbach (126), Harper (142) and Yordan (180).

[NBBrewFan]

Upgrades to the LED screens.

[sveumrules]

9 minutes ago, torts said:

Lol I know!  I still believe in him too.  He's found his stride in leadoff this season!  

In 402 PAs batting lead off this year Yelich posted a 121 wRC+, virtually identical to his career Marlins mark.

[clancyphile]

21 hours ago, sveumrules said:

In 402 PAs batting lead off this year Yelich posted a 121 wRC+, virtually identical to his career Marlins mark.

The question: Was the move to leadoff responsible, or was it the fact his back wasn't giving him as much trouble as it did in 2021?

That is something the Brewers need to figure out.

[Lou Buell]

The biggest mistake was not insisting that Yelich be a part of the Hader deal, as crazy as that may seem YES one of the big market teams would have done the deal and it would have given the team so much more off season flexibility.  He has gone from Joe DiMaggio to Joe LaHoud, remember him Brewer fans, he had similar numbers to the current Yeli.  In addition it is time to pull he plug on Huira, a defensive liability and a hitter the league has found a way to nullify.  Best move of the year for the team, Hunter Renfroe for JBJ, can't believe Stearn's pulled that one off.

[NBBrewFan]

3 minutes ago, Lou Buell said:

The biggest mistake was not insisting that Yelich be a part of the Hader deal, as crazy as that may seem YES one of the big market teams would have done the deal and it would have given the team so much more off season flexibility. 

Uhhh, No, one of the big market teams would not do that.  There's so much negative value in Yelich/his contract that you would have to package Burnes with him to get some team to take him and then you've wasted Burnes as an asset. Yes large market teams have lots of money, but the day of looking for a dumb GM to make a deal for Yelich is long gone.

[GAME05]

A combined Yelich/Hader is about $40M and not even a big-spending team would have valued them at that. Maybe $30M and even that's pushing it. It would have to be a heck of a player or prospect the Brewers would have to include to make up for that difference.

[LouisEly]

I went with health.  I think the Brewers will try to run it back in 2023 and if Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, and Houser aren't healthy not do the Brewers not stand a chance, but those players won't have good trade value either. 

Health also extends to Yelich.  Mitchell has struggled with health in his minor league career.

Regardless of whether they go for it or rebuild, have to have good health to achieve either.

[Samurai Bucky]

I went with Fixing the Bullpen.  Even with the Brewers abysmal offensive numbers, they still would have made it to the playoffs if the bullpen didn't choke so bad.

Wait... what was that?  Oh... another blown save!

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, Samurai Bucky said:

I went with Fixing the Bullpen.  Even with the Brewers abysmal offensive numbers, they still would have made it to the playoffs if the bullpen didn't choke so bad.

Offense wasn’t even all that abysmal. 10th in runs scored, 11th in wRC+, 8th in position player WAR. Multiple teams made the playoffs with worse marks in all three categories.

But yeah, the bullpen. From 2018-21 they went 146-86, a .629 W%. They ranked 4th in Win Probability Added.

This year 36-32, a .529 W%. That’s about 6-7 extra losses compared to 2018-21 (playoff calibre) levels. They were 15th in WPA.

Throw in Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer and Houser going from combining for 22.6 rWAR in 2021 to combining for 13.1 rWAR this year & it’s almost kinda impressive they managed to miss the playoffs by only two dubs.

[rickh150]

On 10/6/2022 at 6:11 PM, LouisEly said:

I went with health.  I think the Brewers will try to run it back in 2023 and if Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, and Houser aren't healthy not do the Brewers not stand a chance, but those players won't have good trade value either. 

Health also extends to Yelich.  Mitchell has struggled with health in his minor league career.

Regardless of whether they go for it or rebuild, have to have good health to achieve either.

Hader’s release tipped their hand…. they are looking to the future. So surprised if Burnes And Woodruff are with them at season’s begining. 

[UpandIn]

On 10/5/2022 at 8:46 AM, MrTPlush said:

#1 Little chance Burnes takes a 5 year deal and there is no way he is barely more expensive than Woodruff. I just don't see that. I could definitely see Woodruff taking about 5/$120mil though.

#2 I honestly want nothing to do with an Adames extension. He couldn't even muster an OBP over .300 this year....no thanks. His offense is barely above average as is. Wait till age takes down his offense and defense. Dude will tank just like Baez.

1-Pitchers are getting shorter deals. He has 2 years of FA left, so he'd be selling out 3 FA years. How many years do you think he'll be looking for? Gerritt Cole was an outlier. Pitchers signing 6-7 years are not doing so with 4 years of service time AND getting anything close to market value.

He signs a 5 year deal, he'd be 32 at the end of it. He'd have no problem getting another big deal if he's still an elite pitcher(Which I think he will be). As for his value relative to Woodruff...I think people really underestimate Woodruff. 

War per year the last 3 years(so not including Burnes blow-up season). 
Burnes       2.1, 5.6, 4.1
Woodruff  2.1, 5.6, 2.7
So they've been pretty much equal. This past year Woodruff missed some time and then came back and pitched great down the stretch (which has been a reason actually cited for not extending Burnes by someone). He's also got more Playoff experience. Small sample, but 40 IP and a 1.90 FIP. 
Burnes has 15 IP and a 1.90 FIP.  

https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=woodrbr01&type=p&player_id1=burneco01&sum=0&request=1

That's again, not to say Burnes isn't better, but...just how much better and how long do you think he gets?

 

2-Adames is coming off his age 26 season and put up a WAR of 4.7 or 4.4(depending on which you like). He was objectively above average offensively DESPITE having a below average season for him. 

I don't see why this tank is coming. He had a walk rate over 10% last year(21) for the Brewers. Baez has a 4.7 for his career. He was a potential MVP candidate after trading for him...and now we don't want him?

I mean...sure, I agree, EVENTUALLY, at some point, age will impact his offense and his defense. 

He'd be my #3 priority because he's just likely to get/want a longer deal. But if they signed him for ~5 years and he was willing to play 3B and SS, I'd be thrilled with that. Disappointed because it'd probably mean we didn't or wouldn't sign one of the two aces, but he's close to a 5 WAR player. They're not real common. 

[Samurai Bucky]

On 10/9/2022 at 1:55 AM, rickh150 said:

Hader’s release tipped their hand…. they are looking to the future. So surprised if Burnes And Woodruff are with them at season’s begining. 

I think they were thinking that Williams was going to step in and be as effective as Hader.  By trading him, they cleared up money for next year and were hoping one of the guys they brought in would be the eighth-inning guy.

So, I think they were looking at the future, but I don't think they were trying to blow things up.  Although, the result was a failure for sure. 

[MrTPlush]

On 10/6/2022 at 11:44 AM, GAME05 said:

A combined Yelich/Hader is about $40M and not even a big-spending team would have valued them at that. Maybe $30M and even that's pushing it. It would have to be a heck of a player or prospect the Brewers would have to include to make up for that difference.

I honestly don't even know if a team would take Yelich with Burnes. 

David Stearns would have revived the concorde to fly Yelich with Hader if a team was that stupid to agree to that. 

[Thurston Fluff]

On 10/6/2022 at 11:07 AM, Lou Buell said:

The biggest mistake was not insisting that Yelich be a part of the Hader deal, as crazy as that may seem YES one of the big market teams would have done the deal and it would have given the team so much more off season flexibility.  He has gone from Joe DiMaggio to Joe LaHoud, remember him Brewer fans, he had similar numbers to the current Yeli.  In addition it is time to pull he plug on Huira, a defensive liability and a hitter the league has found a way to nullify.  Best move of the year for the team, Hunter Renfroe for JBJ, can't believe Stearn's pulled that one off.

 

I'm not trying to single you out as I've seen several talk of trading him but it's not going to happen. Yelich has a full no trade clause so it's not a matter of insisting anyone take him in a deal. It's a matter of Yelich agreeing to it. Why on Earth would he? At least here he's in a small market with fans he's built up some good will from the good he's done for our team. He's in a situation he likes. What would be the reason he uproots his entire life?

[clancyphile]

Yelich is not going anywhere. We just have to hope that he is more like the leadoff Yelich (or career-average Yelich) than 2021 Yelich.

By the way, is anyone having trouble getting baseball-reference to load?

[UpandIn]

On 10/6/2022 at 8:21 AM, clancyphile said:

The question: Was the move to leadoff responsible, or was it the fact his back wasn't giving him as much trouble as it did in 2021?

That is something the Brewers need to figure out.

It'd seem unlikely his back was healthy as he still hit for little to no power. 

And as he moved down in the order on occasion, he didn't start hitting for anymore power. 

He was just...Shin Soo-Choo after HIS bad deal and with fewer HRs and about 30 fewer slugging points. That's what he was...as our leadoff hitter. We can only hope he can at least be that moving forward.

 

I've also heard...criticism about Yelich's work ethic. I don't know how much validity there is to this, it's been vague and from people "who have heard from people," but a good healthy off-season working on his core and back, that would be great. Ryan Braun's core strength was insane. But I'd just count on Yelich putting up ~110 OPS+ playing on about 125 games and walking about 12-14% the next few years...and I'd be fine with that. Poor value, but at least some value.