Big league vs. AAA Lineup

[jay87shot]

I am not going to say the AAA lineup is better than the big league club but in a 100 game series where teams face the same pitching and defense doesn't matter. How many games do you think the AAA optimum lineup would do against the everyday big league team?

I am going to take a few liberties when building the AAA team allstars.

C- Narvaez/Caratini vs Severino/Feliciano

1B- Tellez vs. Singleton

2B- Wong vs. Mathias

SS-Adames vs. Turang

3B- Urias vs. Almont

LF- Yelich vs. Ruiz

CF- Taylor/Cain vs. Frelich

RF- Renfroe vs. Weimer

DH- McCutchen vs. Mitchell

 

[jay87shot]

C- Narvaez/Caratini vs Severino/Feliciano

Even. Narvaez and Caritini hit a wall and have been super dusappointing. Assuming Severino would hit a wall if he could play all year I will go with a wash.

1B- Tellez vs. Singleton

+3 Brewers. Singleton is a similar version of Tellez, he probably hits around .200 but with a higher obp. Rowdy's clutch gene wins a couple games.

2B- Wong vs. Mathias

+1 Brewers. Mathias has been great in Texas, I will give a slight edge to Wong based on this year's power. 

SS-Adames vs. Turang

+2 Brewers. I would bet Turang would hit better than .237 with a .299 obp. However Wilys power make up for that and then some.

3B- Urias vs. Almonte

Even. I am really down on Urias, Almonte has had a great year and even hit .333 in 25 pa's in Boston.

LF- Yelich vs. Ruiz

Even. Ruiz hits at least .260 overall and its not like Yeli had much in the way of clutch hits.

CF- Taylor/Cain vs. Frelich

+3 AAA. This could be even more towards AAA when considering how bad Cain was. I am going conservative saying Frelich would/could be a .280 hitter

RF- Renfroe vs. Weimer

+3 Brewers. Renfoe has been solid, Weimer has the upside to make this close, however his poor last month or so in AA bring my edge down.

DH- McCutchen vs. Mitchell

Evan. Mitchell is showing he could hit .237 at least with some power if he played in the bigs all year.

That puts it at +6 Brewers. So 56 Brewers to 44 for Nashville. I do feel like there could be a few arguments to give AAA A boost here or there and maybe some places to make the Brewers have a better edge.

Please don't bash this thread to much, it's just to show how solid our AAA was and the Brewers lineup underwhelmed.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I am not going to say the AAA lineup is better than the big league club but in a 100 game series where teams face the same pitching and defense doesn't matter. How many games do you think the AAA optimum lineup would do against the everyday big league team?

I am going to take a few liberties when building the AAA team allstars.

C- Narvaez/Caratini vs Severino/Feliciano

1B- Tellez vs. Singleton

2B- Wong vs. Mathias

SS-Adames vs. Turang

3B- Urias vs. Almont

LF- Yelich vs. Ruiz

CF- Taylor/Cain vs. Frelich

RF- Renfroe vs. Weimer

DH- McCutchen vs. Mitchell

 

C - Advantage Narvaez and Caratini. Severino and Feliciano are probably upgrades at the plate but both are massive downgrades behind the plate. Nashville started Navaretto at catcher in their playoff game for this reason. Feliciano had 14 passed balls and a 14.8% CS rate (7 percentage points below International league average) in 64 AAA games at catcher. Those are atrocious numbers.

 

1B - Advantage Tellez pretty easily. Big Jon struck out 28% of the time in AAA and has a career 36% SO rate in his 114 game MLB career.

 

2B - Advantage Wong pretty easily.  Sure Mathias has a 170 wRC+ in Texas but that's with a 36% SO rate and a .406 BABIP. His numbers aren't close to sustainable. 

 

SS - Adames pretty easily. He's had a brutal last 10 days but he's been an elite glove at SS and has hit 30 HR this year. 

 

3B - Urias by a landslide because Almonte doesn't even play in the infield.

 

LF - Yelich pretty easily. Like Adames he's had an awful last two weeks but for the year he has a 110 wRC+ with a .353 OBP. Ruiz in his limited 36 PA MLB sample size had a 25 wRC+.

 

CF - I'd probably lean Frelick because I'm sure high on his ability to make contact, but I think Tyrone is current better defensively than Frelick.

 

RF - Pretty easy Renfroe lean for me. Renfroe has a 124 wRC+ this year. I love Wiemer's potential but he will have some growing pains at the MLB level with his violent swing. 

 

DH - I don't even like Cutch and disliked the idea of the signing when it was just a rumor but I'd still choose him. Mitchell's got a huge amount of potential (second highest in the system behind Chourio in my opinion) but through his first 60 PA he's rocking a 43% SO rate and has a .556 BABIP plus at DH you are taking away Mitchell's speed in the outfield which is his biggest advantage over Cutch.

 

I get it's a fun exercise to compare but pitching at the MLB level is so far above pitching in AAA, so you're overrating a lot of these AAA players and that's coming from me someone who is overwhelmingly positive and hopeful when it comes to prospects.

[Robocaller]

4 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I am not going to say the AAA lineup is better than the big league club but in a 100 game series where teams face the same pitching and defense doesn't matter. How many games do you think the AAA optimum lineup would do against the everyday big league team?

I am going to take a few liberties when building the AAA team allstars.

C- Narvaez/Caratini vs Severino/Feliciano

1B- Tellez vs. Singleton

2B- Wong vs. Mathias

SS-Adames vs. Turang

3B- Urias vs. Almont

LF- Yelich vs. Ruiz

CF- Taylor/Cain vs. Frelich

RF- Renfroe vs. Weimer

DH- McCutchen vs. Mitchell

 

1/3rd of the games, if the pitching was equal.

[damuelle]

I'd predict the Brewers' offense would go 61-39 against the Nashville offense, with a ton of frustrating 3-1 affairs.

As maligned as the Brewers have been, the offense is probably just below-average, rather than atrocious. A little better offense (e.g. a Whit Merrifield or Sal Frelick addition?) and/or one more dependable arm (e.g. better health for Woodruff, Peralta, Houser, Cousins, Rosenthal, Gustave, Luis Perdomo) should have put us in the playoffs.

Turang's .772 OPS in AAA wouldn't put him on Adames' MLB level, nor would Singleton's 24 homers in 581 AAA plate appearances match Tellez' MLB production. We know what Reyes, Feliciano and Davis would do (not a whole lot, unfortunately). And we shouldn't pretend that Wiemer or Dahl would give us anything close to Renfroe's output.

That said, the real missed opportunities, in my opinion, were not allowing switch-hitting Almonte to spell Yelich and McCutchen, Mathias to play against some lefties or Frelick to give us exceptional contact skills (16 Ks in 217 AAA plate appearances).

I can't believe we paid McCutchen $8.5 million and also gave him 571 plate appearances. What?!? I'm sure he's a wonderful human being, but he can't even steal bases (8 SB vs. 6 CS). One head-scratcher in a season full of them...

[NBBrewFan]

What was the Brewers record against the Reds, Pirates, and Marlins? Those are the 3 teams fielding AAA teams in the NL. At least the Marlins have some pitching so losing 3 of 4 must-win games isn't improbable, but these lineups should be easy shutouts or 1-run games for the pitching staff and here we are with an Elimination number of 1 and pretty much little hope because we couldn't out-talent the AAA teams in the majors.

[Jim French Stepstool]

What, no one wants to compare Ozzie Timmons/Connor Dawson to Al LeBoeuf?

[Robocaller]

22 hours ago, damuelle said:

As maligned as the Brewers have been, the offense is probably just below-average, rather than atrocious.

They're significantly better than average (10th in Runs and OPS).

[Robocaller]

14 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

What was the Brewers record against the Reds, Pirates, and Marlins? Those are the 3 teams fielding AAA teams in the NL. At least the Marlins have some pitching so losing 3 of 4 must-win games isn't improbable, but these lineups should be easy shutouts or 1-run games for the pitching staff and here we are with an Elimination number of 1 and pretty much little hope because we couldn't out-talent the AAA teams in the majors.

the worst team beats the best team about a third of the time. 

[WV Brew]

2022 vs. 1970

Phil Roof .683 OPS > Caratini .636

Hegan .701 < Telez .763  less than you'd think

Kubiak .653 < Wong .770

Pena .592 << Adames .755

Harper .899 >> Peterson .707

Walton .750 = Yelich .742

May .659 < Taylor .725

Burda .646 << Renfro .814

1970 of course lost 97 games.  Harper by far the best of the bunch.

[jay87shot]

I would argue our AAA team offensively is way better than the Pirates, Reds, and Marlins. If you look at the younger big league players that those teams brought up Oneil Cruz, Rudolfo Castro, Alejo Lopez, JJ Bleday, Lewin Diaz among others most of our AAA hitters were and have been better hitters. Also our pitching staff and defensive is much better than the reds and pirates scewing the general idea.

We are 11-8 vs. Pirates, 4-3 vs. Marlins, 13-6 vs. Reds.