Looking ahead to 2023 Brewers

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yes I am suggesting we sign Chafin to a 2 year deal in the $8M per year range. We desperately need to upgrade our bullpen. We can't go into 2023 with Boxberger and Bush as our high leverage duo behind DW. We should have a little bit of money to work with Cain, Hader, McCutchen, Narvaez, and Lindblom's contracts off the books. Especially if Wong's option is declined. I'm simply suggesting we use that money to shore up the high leverage bullpen so it returns to being a strength after being one of our biggest weaknesses this year. 

Well, they traded Hader the best left handed reliever in the game over salary concerns. They’d have been better off keeping him if they then go out and give 8 million in a multi-year dew to a journeyman reliever in his 30s.

Moreover, it’s not the Brewers style. They shop the bargain bin for relief pitchers like Boxberger, etc. Almost every time they tried to make a splash with a bullpen arm it blew up in their face: Gagne, Riske, Hawkins, Matt Albers, etc.

[wiguy94]

3 hours ago, UpandIn said:

By the way, 6th Starter/LR you have Houser over Ashby. Do you have Ashby in the rotation then? 

Yes. I’d imagine the Brewers will give Ashby every possible chance to be a SP given they extended him long term. 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Well, they traded Hader the best left handed reliever in the game over salary concerns. They’d have been better off keeping him if they then go out and give 8 million in a multi-year dew to a journeyman reliever in his 30s.

Moreover, it’s not the Brewers style. They shop the bargain bin for relief pitchers like Boxberger, etc. Almost every time they tried to make a splash with a bullpen arm it blew up in their face: Gagne, Riske, Hawkins, Matt Albers, etc.

Calling Chafin a journeyman is a bit much. He’s got 400 career IP with a 3.23 ERA and 3.17 FIP. At $8M per year that’s also about half as much as Hader was projected to make in arb next year. 
 

I get it’s not the Brewers style I’m simply suggesting it’s necessary considering how underwhelming the high leverage bullpen looks going into 2023. We are going to need to bring in some quality arms and they either costs money or prospect capital.

[MNBrew]

10 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

They picked BJ Surhoff in 1985 with the first overall pick.  https://www.espn.com/mlb/draft/history/_/team/mil

Other notables:

• Ryan Braun, 2005, 5th overall
• Rickie Weeks, 2003, #2
• Prince Fielder, 2002, #7
• Gary Sheffield, 1986, #6
• Paul Molitor, 1977, #3
• Robin Yount, 1973, #3

Glad someone else caught the Surhoff omission, too.... and that I read to the end of the thread to avoid redundancy.

[nate82]

11 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

They picked BJ Surhoff in 1985 with the first overall pick.  https://www.espn.com/mlb/draft/history/_/team/mil

Other notables:

• Ryan Braun, 2005, 5th overall
• Rickie Weeks, 2003, #2
• Prince Fielder, 2002, #7
• Gary Sheffield, 1986, #6
• Paul Molitor, 1977, #3
• Robin Yount, 1973, #3

My brain always tells me that Surhoff was the 3rd or 4th pick.  I should stop trusting my brain.  

And Surhoff was my favorite player growing up and I have no idea why, I even emulated his batting stance when I was younger.  

[wiguy94]

Severino elected free agency. I hope this means the Brewers are looking to make an aggressive move for one of Jansen or Murphy and not that they have committed to Caratini/Feliciano being the MLB catcher duo next season.

[UpandIn]

4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yes. I’d imagine the Brewers will give Ashby every possible chance to be a SP given they extended him long term. 

Love that extension. I'd offer that extension to pretty much every young pitcher with even the whiff of his type of upside. I would think it's a given Burnes and Woodruff were given similar offers early on. And I'd assume Hader and Williams, probably even Houser and Lauer, though...the later already had a some service time when he got here and before his velocity had ticked up.

 

Ashby has such a wide range of potential outcomes, but he has legit Ace upside. His GB rate+ his strikes outs. He was one of the reasons I thought they had a real chance this year. Not that he'd reach that this year, but that he could have been to this team what Burnes/Woody were to the '18 team...and maybe he will next year. 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Love that extension. I'd offer that extension to pretty much every young pitcher with even the whiff of his type of upside. I would think it's a given Burnes and Woodruff were given similar offers early on. And I'd assume Hader and Williams, probably even Houser and Lauer, though...the later already had a some service time when he got here and before his velocity had ticked up.

 

Ashby has such a wide range of potential outcomes, but he has legit Ace upside. His GB rate+ his strikes outs. He was one of the reasons I thought they had a real chance this year. Not that he'd reach that this year, but that he could have been to this team what Burnes/Woody were to the '18 team...and maybe he will last year. 

Completely agree. That type of contract is basically a no-lose situation for the Brewers. It's basically just normal increases that an average-ish player would see through arb with two club options in FA. Even if Ashby doesn't make it as a SP and is just a high leverage bullpen guy that contract is still good value for the Brewers. 

[BlightyBrew]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Severino elected free agency. I hope this means the Brewers are looking to make an aggressive move for one of Jansen or Murphy and not that they have committed to Caratini/Feliciano being the MLB catcher duo next season.

I thought Severino wasn't a FA until 2024.  Thought he was arb eligible for 2023.  Where did you see he elected FA?

[wiguy94]

46 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

I thought Severino wasn't a FA until 2024.  Thought he was arb eligible for 2023.  Where did you see he elected FA?

He wasn't on the 40-man so he elected for minor league free agency. If Brewers wanted to keep him they could have put him on the 40-man roster that currently has two open spots, but them not doing that means they didn't have interest in keeping him at arb 3 or a negotiated deal to avoid arb.

[BlightyBrew]

49 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

He wasn't on the 40-man so he elected for minor league free agency. If Brewers wanted to keep him they could have put him on the 40-man roster that currently has two open spots, but them not doing that means they didn't have interest in keeping him at arb 3 or a negotiated deal to avoid arb.

Thanks.  Missed that.  

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

He wasn't on the 40-man so he elected for minor league free agency. If Brewers wanted to keep him they could have put him on the 40-man roster that currently has two open spots, but them not doing that means they didn't have interest in keeping him at arb 3 or a negotiated deal to avoid arb.

I think I could come up with a dozen guys I'd rather protect in the rule 5 alone(ignoring all the other players who'd require a 40 man spot) before I'd even care about another unreliable catcher.

 

I'm sure he'll have a big year next year given our luck. We sign him to platoon with Omar, he gets suspended, misses half the season and then bails on us. Meh, oh well...

[monty57]

Other than catcher, I don't think they'll have the money to sign a free agent position player that is a substantial upgrade over what we already have, so I think they'll spend the free agent money on a starting catcher and relief pitching. There is a list of solid-but-not-spectacular veteran catchers to choose from this offseason and one of them will probably be a Brewer next year.

As to relievers, I wish we had the resources to sign a closer so we could move Williams back to setup, but I don't think that's going to happen. Rather, I think we'll sign a guy to put in a late-inning role and hope that Williams can cut it as a closer. It's looking like he might not have the mental make-up for that role, but I think that role will be his to lose to start next year.

Any other roster upgrades will probably come through trades and minor league call-ups.

[Jopal78]

13 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Calling Chafin a journeyman is a bit much. He’s got 400 career IP with a 3.23 ERA and 3.17 FIP. At $8M per year that’s also about half as much as Hader was projected to make in arb next year. 
 

I get it’s not the Brewers style I’m simply suggesting it’s necessary considering how underwhelming the high leverage bullpen looks going into 2023. We are going to need to bring in some quality arms and they either costs money or prospect capital.

I meant "journeyman" in the context that Chafin has been with 4 different clubs already and will be looking for #5 in year 10 of his career.  Chafin is a fine relief pitcher, but the Brewers can bring back Boxberger and Bush for less financial commitment than Chafin or any other late inning free agent reliever so I doubt we see the Brewers go that way, even though they do need more talent in the bullpen. 

[Brewcrew82]

Another reliever to look into is James Karinchak from the Guardians. He'll be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and the Guardians have proven to be way more cost conscious than us. He would provide some much-needed late inning dominance alongside Devin. 

[Hopper]

5 hours ago, monty57 said:

Other than catcher, I don't think they'll have the money to sign a free agent position player that is a substantial upgrade over what we already have, so I think they'll spend the free agent money on a starting catcher and relief pitching. There is a list of solid-but-not-spectacular veteran catchers to choose from this offseason and one of them will probably be a Brewer next year.

As to relievers, I wish we had the resources to sign a closer so we could move Williams back to setup, but I don't think that's going to happen. Rather, I think we'll sign a guy to put in a late-inning role and hope that Williams can cut it as a closer. It's looking like he might not have the mental make-up for that role, but I think that role will be his to lose to start next year.

Any other roster upgrades will probably come through trades and minor league call-ups.

I think that if Williams starts out the 2023 season as the closer, his frame of mind will be different.  Tossing him into that role after trading hader didn't seem to work out too well, but if he enters the season with that role, hopefully he will be prepared.

[Hopper]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Another reliever to look into is James Karinchak from the Guardians. He'll be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and the Guardians have proven to be way more cost conscious than us. He would provide some much-needed late inning dominance alongside Devin. 

He could just slide right into the closer role, letting Williams go back to his comfy 8th inning spot.

[Brewcrew82]

40 minutes ago, Hopper said:

He could just slide right into the closer role, letting Williams go back to his comfy 8th inning spot.

Williams actually has experience as a closer. Karinchak does not. Williams is fine where he is as one of the best relievers in baseball. 

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Another reliever to look into is James Karinchak from the Guardians. He'll be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, and the Guardians have proven to be way more cost conscious than us. He would provide some much-needed late inning dominance alongside Devin. 

While that's a good thought, Usually the getting expensive part of Arby is Arby2/3 so he may command a bigger price tag to get him than he would in 2024 as the Indians could be ok with his Arby1 cost.

[torts]

On 10/6/2022 at 5:16 AM, wntrtxn21 said:

The lottery has been set. According to Tankathon.com the Brewers have a .02% chance of picking 1st.  .03 chance of picking 2nd or 3rd. .04% of picking 4th or 5th and .05% chance of picking 6th.  So about a 98% chance of picking 18th. 

[damuelle]

Based on my 5-second analysis of our projected 2023 lineup, we'll go big for Contreras. FanGraphs doesn't like his defense, but nobody liked Narvaez's defense before he came to Milwaukee either:

1. LHH Yelich - DH
2. LHH Frelick - LF (after spending first month or two hitting 7th or so)
3. RHH Adames - SS
4. LHH Tellez - 1B
5. RHH Renfroe - RF
6. RHH Contreras - C
7. LHH Mitchell - CF
8. RHH Urias - 3B
9. LHH Turang - 2B

Bench: Taylor, Ruiz, Caratini, Brosseau

Trade: Hiura

Option: Feliciano

[Robocaller]

19 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I meant "journeyman" in the context that Chafin has been with 4 different clubs already and will be looking for #5 in year 10 of his career.  Chafin is a fine relief pitcher, but the Brewers can bring back Boxberger and Bush for less financial commitment than Chafin or any other late inning free agent reliever so I doubt we see the Brewers go that way, even though they do need more talent in the bullpen. 

this is just semantics, so I figured I'd pull out my dictionary:
journeyman | ˈjərnēmən | noun (plural journeymen) 1 a worker or sports player who is reliable but not outstanding: [as modifier] :  a solid journeyman professional.

I know it often is used for a player who has moved from team to team, but that's not really what it means.

 

[Robocaller]

17 minutes ago, damuelle said:

Based on my 5-second analysis of our projected 2023 lineup, we'll go big for Contreras. FanGraphs doesn't like his defense, but nobody liked Narvaez's defense before he came to Milwaukee either:

1. LHH Yelich - DH
2. LHH Frelick - LF (after spending first month or two hitting 7th or so)
3. RHH Adames - SS
4. LHH Tellez - 1B
5. RHH Renfroe - RF
6. RHH Contreras - C
7. LHH Mitchell - CF
8. RHH Urias - 3B
9. LHH Turang - 2B

Bench: Taylor, Ruiz, Caratini, Brosseau

Trade: Hiura

Option: Feliciano

That makes a helluva lot of sense (though I might put Mitchell #9 as "second leadoff," but even though neither Turang nor Frelick have significant platoon splits (and Turang is slightly reversed), CC won't stack LHH.

 

[Robocaller]

On 10/6/2022 at 4:16 AM, wntrtxn21 said:

The lottery has been set. According to Tankathon.com the Brewers have a .02% chance of picking 1st.  .03 chance of picking 2nd or 3rd. .04% of picking 4th or 5th and .05% chance of picking 6th.  So about a 98% chance of picking 18th. 

remove the leading zeros. 0.23% chance of picking 1st. Or about one in 435 chance.

[Outlander]

I don't think Turang is a starter. Predict they sign Drury at 3B, Urias at 2B and have Turang as super sub. He plays a lot still because 2B, SS and 3B are right handed.