Looking ahead to 2023 Brewers

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

I would see if Suter takes like a 2 year 3 million (total) dollar deal with some incentives ( like 1/2 mill for 50 inn pitched etc.). I wouldn't pay north of 3 million for 87 mph and a good clubhouse guy.

What about James McCann at catcher? I am sure the mets would eat almost all his salary and would cost next to nothing.

But the question is why? Why should we pay $3M a year for a low leverage RP. I love Suter as a clubhouse guy. He seems like an awesome person/clubhouse personality, but his pitching role in the BP is highly replaceable and can be filled with a league minimum guy making over 4x less than Suter. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

40 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Holby Milner over Suter and...then some NRI's. 

Giving Suter 3M or more would be a bad use of resources. 

And Jake Cousins has the type of stuff to be a VERY effective middle reliever or even, as you said, SU man. He'll be cheap and they've stuck with him this long. No reason to move on now when he's back, healthy and will have all off-season to rest his arm(or more likely rebuild his arm strength, but without the stress of throwing high leverage MLB innings). 

There's obviously something to be said for clubhouse chemistry, though. We saw that firsthand this year. Suter is a glue guy in that clubhouse. That's why I felt that, unless he obviously implodes, he'll be back. 

[clancyphile]

3 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

There's obviously something to be said for clubhouse chemistry, though. We saw that firsthand this year. Suter is a glue guy in that clubhouse. That's why I felt that, unless he obviously implodes, he'll be back. 

Analytics can only go so far. There are forces other than WAR and OPS at work in baseball.

Fundamentals and clubhouse chemistry matter, too, and that is probably the lesson that Stearns and Counsell are taking from this season.

[Outlander]

In regards to catcher I imagine the Braves will be looking to dump Manny Pina and willing to eat salary since they have d'Arnaud and Contreras. Wouldn't mind him as backup over Caratini/Severino. Still need a starter. The previously mention Jansen from the Blue Jays would be a nice pickup but there will be plenty of others teams looking at him if the Blue Jays are looking to deal him. Would likely take one of the Brewers OF prospects as a starting point.

[wiguy94]

31 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

There's obviously something to be said for clubhouse chemistry, though. We saw that firsthand this year. Suter is a glue guy in that clubhouse. That's why I felt that, unless he obviously implodes, he'll be back. 

I mean I agree with this but there comes a time where you need to weigh the pros and cons. Paying $3M for a super low leverage reliever because he has good clubhouse vibes just makes filling the other 6 bullpen spots that much more important. You're lowering your margin of error in the bullpen by bringing Suter back. 

The Rays churn through RP and just their overall roster and still manage to have great team chemistry and success. 

[wiguy94]

Just for some perspective on Suter. In 2022 he had a 93 ERA- (2nd worst in career), a 110 FIP- (2nd worst in career), a 105 xFIP- (2nd worst in career), a 3.97 SIERA (worst since 2018), and a 0.67 pLI (lowest average leverage index of his career). 

 

I get he's a great clubhouse guy, but having probably the second worst season of his career while having the lowest leverage index of his career just isn't great. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Just for some perspective on Suter. In 2022 he had a 93 ERA- (2nd worst in career), a 110 FIP- (2nd worst in career), a 105 xFIP- (2nd worst in career), a 3.97 SIERA (worst since 2018), and a 0.67 pLI (lowest average leverage index of his career). 

 

I get he's a great clubhouse guy, but having probably the second worst season of his career while having the lowest leverage index of his career just isn't great. 

Relief pitching is volatile. There are plenty of instances out there of a guy having a career year, only to follow it up with one where he regularly gets lit up. Suter is a guy who has never relied on "stuff", so I wouldn't expect him, at 33, to suddenly lose it. Despite his somewhat down year (by his standards) in 2022, I would imagine that some consistency would be appreciated by the team. The guy has pitched in a lot of roles over the years, and while he's never been close to a world-beater, he's been an effective and valuable cog in what has typically been a very good pen, while also serving as a roughly league-average starter earlier in his career. So while it wouldn't necessarily shock me to see the team move on from him, I don't expect it.

[clancyphile]

11 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Relief pitching is volatile. There are plenty of instances out there of a guy having a career year, only to follow it up with one where he regularly gets lit up. Suter is a guy who has never relied on "stuff", so I wouldn't expect him, at 33, to suddenly lose it. Despite his somewhat down year (by his standards) in 2022, I would imagine that some consistency would be appreciated by the team. The guy has pitched in a lot of roles over the years, and while he's never been close to a world-beater, he's been an effective and valuable cog in what has typically been a very good pen, while also serving as a roughly league-average starter earlier in his career. So while it wouldn't necessarily shock me to see the team move on from him, I don't expect it.

If anything, he could be due for a rebound in 2023.

They could probably work something out - say, 4 years, $9 million with some incentives. Get some cost certainly.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

If anything, he could be due for a rebound in 2023.

They could probably work something out - say, 4 years, $9 million with some incentives. Get some cost certainly.

Just god no. He's a 33 year old super low leverage reliever. Giving him a 4 year contract is crazy.

[wiguy94]

22 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Relief pitching is volatile. There are plenty of instances out there of a guy having a career year, only to follow it up with one where he regularly gets lit up. Suter is a guy who has never relied on "stuff", so I wouldn't expect him, at 33, to suddenly lose it. Despite his somewhat down year (by his standards) in 2022, I would imagine that some consistency would be appreciated by the team. The guy has pitched in a lot of roles over the years, and while he's never been close to a world-beater, he's been an effective and valuable cog in what has typically been a very good pen, while also serving as a roughly league-average starter earlier in his career. So while it wouldn't necessarily shock me to see the team move on from him, I don't expect it.

You're ignoring that he's one of the lowest leverage relievers in baseball.  It doesn't matter if he bounces back (which shouldn't be assumed because he's a soft tossing 33 year old who doesn't strike people out). Paying a super low leverage reliever $3M a year when you desperately need to improve your high leverage options is a waste of limited small market resources. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

You're ignoring that he's one of the lowest leverage relievers in baseball.  It doesn't matter if he bounces back (which shouldn't be assumed because he's a soft tossing 33 year old who doesn't strike people out). Paying a super low leverage reliever $3M a year when you desperately need to improve your high leverage options is a waste of limited small market resources. 

I'm not ignoring anything. I see your point, which is exactly why I said it wouldn't necessarily shock me to see them move on. But for the reasons listed earlier, I don't expect it. I'd be a little bummed to see him go, as he's seemingly a fun guy to have around. But you bring up a valid point as to whether that is worth his contract and the roster spot. If I were the GM, and solely basing the decision on Xs and Os, and the bottom line, he'd probably be non-tendered. But I'm not, and the team doesn't base their decisions entirely on those factors, so my best guess is that he's back. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

I mean I agree with this but there comes a time where you need to weigh the pros and cons. Paying $3M for a super low leverage reliever because he has good clubhouse vibes just makes filling the other 6 bullpen spots that much more important. You're lowering your margin of error in the bullpen by bringing Suter back. 

The Rays churn through RP and just their overall roster and still manage to have great team chemistry and success. 

You may want to take a deeper dive into the stats, before affixing labels to Suter. 

He had a rough April, but when the calendar turned to May he was a terrific relief pitcher. 60 2/3 innings, a WHIP of 1.25, a strike out to walk ratio of better than 2:1, he throws left handed and can go multiple innings. 

Frankly, the team needs pitchers who can get outs in the bullpen and keep them in games and hold leads. Suter does that, and if he was cut loose he'd have a job tomorrow if he wanted. 

Moreover, the Brewers will have a stack of hard throwers for bullpen duty in '23: Strzelecki, Gott, Cousins, Topa  with Bush and Boxberger if they want them, and even Ashby floating around too.

Given the high velocity pitchers they already have, I doubt they are willing to dip into the late inning free agent market much, not to mention they've been pretty successful in finding late inning relievers in the bargain bin: Boxberger, Strickland, David Phelps, Dan Jennings, etc. 

[shanedog19]

For me, this one was easy. My vote is to commit to the young players and let them start the season at the big league level. That includes Mitchell, Frelick, Turang, Weimer, and Ruiz. Ideally, Turang is our everyday 2B, and our outfield is some combination of Mitchell, Frelick, and Weimer. I'd look to move Renfroe for pitching help, but wouldn't be opposed to holding on to him for another year if there are no takers. Wong and Cutch are both gone, and Yelich becomes a DH exclusively. Did I read somewhere that Ruiz has also played some 2B? How about some combination of an Adames, Turang, Ruiz, and Tellez infield?

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

There's obviously something to be said for clubhouse chemistry, though. We saw that firsthand this year. Suter is a glue guy in that clubhouse. That's why I felt that, unless he obviously implodes, he'll be back. 

What happened to that glue this year? If he's around for the clown that brings the team together then he also failed this year so maybe the rest of the team is starting to tune him out.  I think his role in clubhouse chemistry is probably not as significant as a better level of communication from CC and the GM/President.

[NBBrewFan]

31 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Moreover, the Brewers will have a stack of hard throwers for bullpen duty in '23: Strzelecki, Gott, Cousins, Topa  with Bush and Boxberger if they want them, and even Ashby floating around too.

You're not the only one, but is the general consensus to just throw the same crap against the wall and hope it sticks this time? I don't have an issue with Strzelecki, Bush or Topa, but they should be men on the outside looking for someone ahead of them to fail/get injured, not part of the solution.  Gott can go as he's just another in the Boxberger-Milner group of middle relievers and we have buckets full of them (the guys that are good enough to make the MLB roster, but keep them away from mid to high leverage situations as much as possible.  We need quality to handle 7/8/9th inning and we have Devin Williams and that's it.  

[Samurai Bucky]

13 hours ago, nate82 said:

Would be their first time picking #1 also so not going to happen just because of that.

They picked BJ Surhoff in 1985 with the first overall pick.  https://www.espn.com/mlb/draft/history/_/team/mil

Other notables:

• Ryan Braun, 2005, 5th overall
• Rickie Weeks, 2003, #2
• Prince Fielder, 2002, #7
• Gary Sheffield, 1986, #6
• Paul Molitor, 1977, #3
• Robin Yount, 1973, #3

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

You may want to take a deeper dive into the stats, before affixing labels to Suter. 

He had a rough April, but when the calendar turned to May he was a terrific relief pitcher. 60 2/3 innings, a WHIP of 1.25, a strike out to walk ratio of better than 2:1, he throws left handed and can go multiple innings. 

Frankly, the team needs pitchers who can get outs in the bullpen and keep them in games and hold leads. Suter does that, and if he was cut loose he'd have a job tomorrow if he wanted. 

Moreover, the Brewers will have a stack of hard throwers for bullpen duty in '23: Strzelecki, Gott, Cousins, Topa  with Bush and Boxberger if they want them, and even Ashby floating around too.

Given the high velocity pitchers they already have, I doubt they are willing to dip into the late inning free agent market much, not to mention they've been pretty successful in finding late inning relievers in the bargain bin: Boxberger, Strickland, David Phelps, Dan Jennings, etc. 

From 5/1 through the end of the season Suter had a 107 FIP-, a 104 xFIP-, and a 3.88 SIERA. None of those numbers are good. Sure the ERA was good and that's good that he got good production, but none of the underlying numbers look good in that time which when looking towards next year is more important to look at than pure ERA.

Those type of guys worked when we had Hader and DW/Knebel/Jeffress locking down the 8th and 9th. We don't have that lockdown 8th inning guy anymore which is why we need to invest in the bullpen this offseason especially considering the BP was a major weakpoint from July on. Would you feel good about going into 2023 with Boxberger being our 8th inning guy?

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, NBBrewFan said:

You're not the only one, but is the general consensus to just throw the same crap against the wall and hope it sticks this time? I don't have an issue with Strzelecki, Bush or Topa, but they should be men on the outside looking for someone ahead of them to fail/get injured, not part of the solution.  Gott can go as he's just another in the Boxberger-Milner group of middle relievers and we have buckets full of them (the guys that are good enough to make the MLB roster, but keep them away from mid to high leverage situations as much as possible.  We need quality to handle 7/8/9th inning and we have Devin Williams and that's it.  

Exactly. One of my suggestions was Andrew Chafin who can replace Hoby's high leverage type role and we can push Hoby into Suter's role from last year. I think Chafin would be a good 7th inning guy. We probably will need to look into a trade for an 8th inning guy. Not sure of any names, but I don't trust anyone on the staff currently to be in the 8th inning role behind DW.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Exactly. One of my suggestions was Andrew Chafin who can replace Hoby's high leverage type role and we can push Hoby into Suter's role from last year. I think Chafin would be a good 7th inning guy. We probably will need to look into a trade for an 8th inning guy. Not sure of any names, but I don't trust anyone on the staff currently to be in the 8th inning role behind DW.

Chafin made 6.5 million dollars in 2022, had a 2.83 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP. Do you think he's going to take a paycut in 2023, if not he won't be in Milwaukee? Most likely Chafin will be seeking a multi-year deal for 7-8 million AAV. 

[wiguy94]

49 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Chafin made 6.5 million dollars in 2022, had a 2.83 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP. Do you think he's going to take a paycut in 2023, if not he won't be in Milwaukee? Most likely Chafin will be seeking a multi-year deal for 7-8 million AAV. 

Yes I am suggesting we sign Chafin to a 2 year deal in the $8M per year range. We desperately need to upgrade our bullpen. We can't go into 2023 with Boxberger and Bush as our high leverage duo behind DW. We should have a little bit of money to work with Cain, Hader, McCutchen, Narvaez, and Lindblom's contracts off the books. Especially if Wong's option is declined. I'm simply suggesting we use that money to shore up the high leverage bullpen so it returns to being a strength after being one of our biggest weaknesses this year. 

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Just god no. He's a 33 year old super low leverage reliever. Giving him a 4 year contract is crazy.

I can't even be bothered anymore. 4 year deal for Suter. Why?

 

3 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Moreover, the Brewers will have a stack of hard throwers for bullpen duty in '23: Strzelecki, Gott, Cousins, Topa  with Bush and Boxberger if they want them, and even Ashby floating around too.

Those are some solid BP arms, but not really the big power arms you'd prefer. A healthy off-season by Topa and Cousins could help each of them out. 

Bush is certainly a hard thrower and I think if he can just get used to throwing his FB in the upper part of the zone, the "Keston Hiura" part of the strike zone, he could have a LOT more success. 
Strezelecki solid and very effective as a middle inning reliever. 

But we don't really have many guys who can just beat you power on power as we did with Hader, Burnes, Woodruff and that run in 2018.

Respective FB velocity;
Strezelecki 93.5
Cousins      95.7 in 30IP and 18IP
Topa          95.6 
Bush           97.4
Boxberger 92.8
Williams    94.1

For a reliever, that's...not really a lot of hard throwers. 

Compared to the Cards
Helsley 99.7
Pallante 95.3
Hicks      98.0(first year under 101)
Gallegos 94.5
Cabrera 97.9
 

Not to say we need 5 guys who can throw in the upper 90s(Gallegos average FB was a little surprising as it seemed like he was more consistently at 97-98).

If that group can stay healthy, they can get by with them, but I think one of the priorities is to try and re-stock our BP. 

If Burnes and Woodruff are brought back, I think they need to try and shore up the backend of that BP...and I don't know how exactly they do it. 

Hopefully between Ecerg, Harris, some of the harder throwers in our system, they can harness their stuff next year and prove themselves a bit more in AAA. Each showed signs this year. Ecerg has a long stretch of dominance, but would also then fall apart. But another year as a pitcher, MAYBE he's someone they could count on. Ruiz could be used to get a legitimate SU/CL. That Bautista from the Os would make sense if they weren't just getting ready to contend, but they do have several power arms and Ruiz makes a LOT of sense in their lineup. Feels like that could be a fit...unless the Brewers are higher on him than we think, in which case...trade someone else. 

But I also the Brewers to find guys who they think they can work with. Someone like Garrett Richards, a pitcher who's been a starter and who's stuff could play up in a more limited role or a Drew Pomeranz, but it's an area that I think we need improvement without obvious in-house help(as opposed to the lineup).

I don't trust them to bring in a cost affordable veteran to supplement the offense, but BP arms, we do alright. 

[UpandIn]

48 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yes I am suggesting we sign Chafin to a 2 year deal in the $8M per year range. We desperately need to upgrade our bullpen. We can't go into 2023 with Boxberger and Bush as our high leverage duo behind DW. We should have a little bit of money to work with Cain, Hader, McCutchen, Narvaez, and Lindblom's contracts off the books. Especially if Wong's option is declined. I'm simply suggesting we use that money to shore up the high leverage bullpen so it returns to being a strength after being one of our biggest weaknesses this year. 

I don't know about Chafin, but I'd be fine if our big signing was a high leverage reliever. 

Chafin can certainly get right handers out, Lugo was very impressive when I saw him in the Mets series. There are guys DS maybe takes a flier on in Britton...who should be full go for the start of STing next year. 

Again, IF you run it back, unless you can sign Jose Areu, I'm not seeing the FA's available who match up with our needs, or who are realistic in terms of position players. 

 

[wiguy94]

41 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

I don't know about Chafin, but I'd be fine if our big signing was a high leverage reliever. 

Chafin can certainly get right handers out, Lugo was very impressive when I saw him in the Mets series. There are guys DS maybe takes a flier on in Britton...who should be full go for the start of STing next year. 

Again, IF you run it back, unless you can sign Jose Areu, I'm not seeing the FA's available who match up with our needs, or who are realistic in terms of position players. 

 

Chafin for me is a more if a 7th inning guy. I would still be in search of an 8th inning guy to replace Boxberger’s high leverage role. Just think that would probably be through a trade. The bullpen would look like this.

9th - DW

8th - Boxberger replacement

7th - Chafin

MR - Cousins, Bush, Milner, Strzelecki

LR - 6th starter likely Houser 

[UpandIn]

47 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Chafin for me is a more if a 7th inning guy. I would still be in search of an 8th inning guy to replace Boxberger’s high leverage role. Just think that would probably be through a trade. The bullpen would look like this.

9th - DW

8th - Boxberger replacement

7th - Chafin

MR - Cousins, Bush, Milner, Strzelecki

LR - 6th starter likely Houser 

Sure...makes sense. I know I'm probably alone, but I'd like to see the Brewers be very aggressive in going after another elite, high end SU man as I don't have a great feeling about Wlliams. 

I think it's the fact that he relies SO heavily on that change and that so many of his pitches are out of the zone.  He's lost that big FB to attack hitters with, so it's just changeup's. Which in all fairness, that's worked just fine for him, but I think we need a contingency option.

I do think that can be Bush still. But again, gotta get that FB up in the zone. 

 

By the way, 6th Starter/LR you have Houser over Ashby. Do you have Ashby in the rotation then? 

Also, interesting note I just saw yesterday. Greg Maddux induced 18 Ground Balls in a game 20 times.
All active pitchers have done so 18 times TOTAL(Houser being one of them). Could also be a guy who thrives in that role. The old adage about sinker ball pitchers throwing better the most often they're used or with the less rest they get. Plus, he can also throw in the mid 90's more regularly in shorter stints. But I also still have some faith if healthy he's a viable starter. 

[Robocaller]

Suter made $2.7M this year. So $3M next year seems like a slight bargain.

I'd offer him a one year contract because I don't know what he'd get in arbitration.

I think Small is our long-term Suter replacement (perhaps pitching multiple innings more frequently than Suter's done recently). 

I'd try to bring back all our RP who did OK. Williams, Milner, Boxberger, Strzelecki, Gott, Suter, and even Bush. I'd either bring back Rogers if we can get him on a reasonable one year contract (~5M). If I didn't bring back Rogers, I'd try to sign the best reliever I could get for no more than $6M a year. If I didn't sign one of the guys I mentioned (and didn't want to go to arbitration), I wouldn't sweat it very much. Then sign 2-4 guys on the scrap heap, probably on minor league contracts with spring training invites, because I don't know if we'll have room on the 40-man. Then there are the guys who were injured much of last year: Perdomo, Urena, etc., whom I'd evaluate on a case-by-case basis, signing or cut bait.