Looking ahead to 2023 Brewers

[Robocaller]

11 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

You don't need "punch" at every position.  The Brewers are #5 in MLB/#3 in NL for ISO.  They have plenty of punch.  They aren't losing any getting rid of McCutcheon as he brings the Brewers ISO down.  What they lack and severely lack is BA (and the BA component of OBP) where they are 22nd/11th in MLB/NL. You can get to the same runs scored through different routes and increasing the BA is what this offense needs (IMO).

I speak of equal WAR not 1:1 with Renfroe, but with the lineups with and without Renfroe (plus trade acquisition).  We might take a hit in the overall offense trading Renfroe, but the bullpen could take a step up to narrow the gap.  It requires the right trade partner so I am not advocating it as a must do strategy, just something they could do given the right trade.

Once you remove Renfroe, it takes a big chunk of power out of the lineup. The Brewers rank 3rd in the majors by OPS by RFs; by far the highest ranking of any position.
But, yeah, you trade anyone if you're fleecing your trading partner.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I would be VERY surprised if Keston Hiura is back next year. To me, he has been the epitome of everything that was wrong with this offense this season. A total all-or-nothing approach with tons of Ks, while running into one here and there (including some exciting clutch moments). Add in that he provides absolutely zero defensive value, and he strikes me as a guy who just needs a fresh start ... preferably with an AL team. If he figures it out and becomes the . 280/30 HR guy he should be, fine. That isn't going to happen with the Brewers, though. His approach just simply sucks.

[nate82]

37 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I would be VERY surprised if Keston Hiura is back next year. To me, he has been the epitome of everything that was wrong with this offense this season. A total all-or-nothing approach with tons of Ks, while running into one here and there (including some exciting clutch moments). Add in that he provides absolutely zero defensive value, and he strikes me as a guy who just needs a fresh start ... preferably with an AL team. If he figures it out and becomes the . 280/30 HR guy he should be, fine. That isn't going to happen with the Brewers, though. His approach just simply sucks.

I agree and I think the A's maybe a team that would take the chance on Hiura.  Something like Hiura for Puk makes some sense here.

[clancyphile]

8 hours ago, Robocaller said:

Once you remove Renfroe, it takes a big chunk of power out of the lineup. The Brewers rank 3rd in the majors by OPS by RFs; by far the highest ranking of any position.
But, yeah, you trade anyone if you're fleecing your trading partner.

At the same time... could Taylor handle the position? Wiemer isn't far off, either, a 2023 debut (depending on the scenario it could be opening day or September).

So, there is power in the form of Taylor/Wiemer.

The bigger issue, to me, is fundamentals. Even with the shift being banned, the Brewers are falling short.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I agree and I think the A's maybe a team that would take the chance on Hiura.  Something like Hiura for Puk makes some sense here.

If the A's were going to trade AJ Puk, they would get better offers than Keston Hiura. 

Puk has had some arm injuries, but is pre-arbitration eligible and has late inning stuff.

Meanwhile, there are always hitters like Hiura, who will slug .450 and struggle to make contact, readily available on cut rate short term contracts every offseason.  

At this point, another organization would have to really love Keston's game to give the Brewers much of anything for him. If in fact he is in danger of being non-tendered by Milwaukee, the return would be next to nothing like when the Brewers acquired Leo Crawford from LA for Corey Knebel. 

[clancyphile]

My thoughts for a 2023 lineup?

2b: Turang

ss: Adames

lf: Yelich

rf: Wiemer

1b: Tellez

dh: Hiura

? Caratini

3b: Urias

cf: Mitchell

bench: Feliciano, Reyes (OF/IF), Broussard (IF), Taylor (OF), Ruiz (OF)

rotation: Burnes, Woodruff, Lauer, Peralta, Ashby

bullpen: D. Williams, Boxberger, Cousins, Strzelecki, Milner, Suter, Houser, Alexander, Small

 

* - Renfore traded for prospects/lottery tickets

* - Burnes extended for 7 years, $210 million - $70 million deferred to be paid out over 20 years.

* - Adames extended for six years, $150 million - $60 million deferred to be paid out over 20 years.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

If the A's were going to trade AJ Puk, they would get better offers than Keston Hiura. 

Puk has had some arm injuries, but is pre-arbitration eligible and has late inning stuff.

Meanwhile, there are always hitters like Hiura, who will slug .450 and struggle to make contact, readily available on cut rate short term contracts every offseason.  

At this point, another organization would have to really love Keston's game to give the Brewers much of anything for him. If in fact he is in danger of being non-tendered by Milwaukee, the return would be next to nothing like when the Brewers acquired Leo Crawford from LA for Corey Knebel. 

Puk may have the late inning stuff but he doesn't have much value at all.  Value wise Hiura actually has a higher value than him though just barely.  Puk's arm injuries are very concerning and he could be done if he has another one.  The risk of Puk getting another arm injury is very high which is knocking his value down.  I don't see the A's getting anything more than what Hiura is worth which is a surplus value of about $3m.  

So no the A's are not going to get better offers than Keston Hiura for AJ Puk.

[Jopal78]

46 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Puk may have the late inning stuff but he doesn't have much value at all.  Value wise Hiura actually has a higher value than him though just barely.  Puk's arm injuries are very concerning and he could be done if he has another one.  The risk of Puk getting another arm injury is very high which is knocking his value down.  I don't see the A's getting anything more than what Hiura is worth which is a surplus value of about $3m.  

So no the A's are not going to get better offers than Keston Hiura for AJ Puk.

Do you just make this stuff up? Puk was healthy all year this year and ends the season healthy. Moreover, Puk struck out more than a batter per inning, allowed less than a hit per inning and was 3:1 in the strike out to walk ratio, and perhaps most importantly remains pre-arbitration eligible. 

Hiura, if he's not non-tendered,  is going to make at least 1.9 million next year (Hiura's numbers are almost identical to Tellez's, and Rowdy got 1.9 million his first time through arbitration).  That's already at least double Puk's salary for next year, not to mention Hiura is really only useful against RHP so he doesn't even fill a hole in another team's roster as they'll likely have to platoon him. 

No doubt, Hiura brings a nice slugging percentage, but it is also literally all he brings. He doesn't hit left handed pitching,  he struggles to make contact, he doesn't really get on base, and he's a poor defender. How do you market a guy like that?

 

[nate82]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

Do you just make this stuff up? Puk was healthy all year this year and ends the season healthy. Moreover, Puk struck out more than a batter per inning, allowed less than a hit per inning and was 3:1 in the strike out to walk ratio, and perhaps most importantly remains pre-arbitration eligible. 

I didn't say he wasn't healthy, I said if he has another arm injury.  Which is part of the calculation of the risk which will bring his value down.  Even without taking in the injury risk Puk is still going to be lower than an everyday player. An everyday bat is always going to have more value than a relief pitcher.  Puk will also be going into his final year of pre-arb at the age of 28.  So he is starting to get older and will start to get expensive for a reliever after 2023.  

Even at about $2m next year for Hiura that is still a large savings over what can be had in FA.  Hiura also provides a skill of hitting for power which is still in high demand. Even if Hiura wouldn't be enough for Puk the Brewers wouldn't have to add all that much more maybe someone like Feliciano to the mix in the trade.  

Puk's value is not all that high due to him being a reliever.  If he was still a starting pitcher he would have a higher value.  The two teams matchup even if it is not Hiura for Puk one for one this is still a very fair deal for the A's and the Brewers.  Value wise both Hiura and Puk are about the same.  If a bat is about the same as a relief pitcher their value is really low.  

[reillymcshane]

Brewers have some serious questions this off season. They could go in several directions. Just which one?

The good part is we have some young players ready to contribute in the big leagues - Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Ruiz, Wiemer all seem ready or close to ready. Rookies have growing pains - so expect that. But also give them time to gel, and hopefully be season's end they have grown into productive players. And the young outfielders allow you to move Yelich to DH. 

The downside is that catcher, 1B and 3B are weak. I'm guess we are not signing Willson Contreras to a $100M+ deal. Or Arenado to a $40m per season deal. 

Do you deal Burnes and/or Woodruff to reload with some stud minor leaguers? Or just bring back Urias, Rowdy and a couple of nondescript catchers to hold us over for another year? 

Or do you just bring back the rotation of Burnes/Woodruff/Lauer/Peralta/Ashby? That's pretty good. Maybe sign a reliable reliever or two. 

A complete blowup is possible (but I think unlikely). Deal all the vets (Burnes, Woody, Lauer, Rowdy, Renfroe) and try and retool with young guys. Burnes and Woodruff should net strong returns. Others guys are more 'meh' and I wouldn't expect a lot.

I don't know the answer. None of the options looks that appealing. Even if you bring in 2-3 rookies to start, you're still relying on so many of the same bats. Oh well, such is life.

[monty57]

The way Hiura was used this year by the Brewers, I can't imagine that he is part of their future. I expect they trade him this offseason, but I don't think they'll get more than "a bag of balls" for him. I'll go with that expectation, and be pleasantly surprised if they are able to get something of value for him.

[reillymcshane]

4 minutes ago, monty57 said:

The way Hiura was used this year by the Brewers, I can't imagine that he is part of their future. I expect they trade him this offseason, but I don't think they'll get more than "a bag of balls" for him. I'll go with that expectation, and be pleasantly surprised if they are able to get something of value for him.

Totally agree. Someone will likely be intrigued by him, but no one is going to overpay for a project. He's probably needed a change of scenery for a while - so let's do him a favor and send him along.

[monty57]

2 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

Brewers have some serious questions this off season. They could go in several directions. Just which one?

The good part is we have some young players ready to contribute in the big leagues - Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Ruiz, Wiemer all seem ready or close to ready. Rookies have growing pains - so expect that. But also give them time to gel, and hopefully be season's end they have grown into productive players. And the young outfielders allow you to move Yelich to DH. 

The downside is that catcher, 1B and 3B are weak. I'm guess we are not signing Willson Contreras to a $100M+ deal. Or Arenado to a $40m per season deal. 

Do you deal Burnes and/or Woodruff to reload with some stud minor leaguers? Or just bring back Urias, Rowdy and a couple of nondescript catchers to hold us over for another year? 

Or do you just bring back the rotation of Burnes/Woodruff/Lauer/Peralta/Ashby? That's pretty good. Maybe sign a reliable reliever or two. 

A complete blowup is possible (but I think unlikely). Deal all the vets (Burnes, Woody, Lauer, Rowdy, Renfroe) and try and retool with young guys. Burnes and Woodruff should net strong returns. Others guys are more 'meh' and I wouldn't expect a lot.

I don't know the answer. None of the options looks that appealing. Even if you bring in 2-3 rookies to start, you're still relying on so many of the same bats. Oh well, such is life.

This is where I fall back to the "continually competitive" mantra the Brewers have touted since Stearns was hired.

From watching Stearns, it's my belief that if we're attempting to be "continually competitive"...

...we won't let uber-talented guys like Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames walk as free agents, so they will likely be traded before they become free agents.

...we won't trade off all of our pending free agents in one year, as that would at the very least lead to a 1-2 year "retooling."

...we will have to build from within, meaning that we will rely on having a strong farm system that can continually feed talent to the MLB team.

...although limited by payroll, we will use free agency to fill holes in the roster. This has been done longer-term with Cain, but as the farm gels, it will probably be used on shorter-term deals like Wong and McCutchen in the future.

...most trades will bring back players with a lot of team control. The only shorter-term trades are ones involving lesser prospects or bad contracts like the JBJ deal.

...most decent prospects will be offered an extension early in their pre-arby years. If they don't sign that deal, they're probably going to be here 4-5 years and then get traded away.

[NBBrewFan]

The Brewers were happy to go with this roster in 2022 so I'm not sure they see the "issues" with the players that we do.  There was no indication they weren't going to start McCutcheon every day and he was the worst starter they played.  So who knows if they've gone down a hole of custom sabermetrics that says he somehow had value or they just love 1-dimensional players (we got a roster full of them).  So until we actually see what they do it's not clear if they actually think anything was wrong with the past year.  I will say that dwindling attendance while the team was still very close to a playoff slot should be a clear signal to the organization what the fans thought about the product. So I have some hope they don't just run it back mostly intact (pick up Wong's option) with maybe adding Frelick to the OF and that's all for the offense.  I really think the extent of the Remodel will be driven by what the buyers market looks like.  If there is lots of demand for Burnes, Woodruff and/or Adames that results in really excellent deals then I think they would go toward leaving a wall up and remodeling most of the team.  If the deals don't really offer as much value or are limited to Burnes, or not "can't turn down" offers then they are likely to do some spackle work and do a new paint job, Based on Stearns past I don't see him just trading players for the sake of making a change, he looks for value in the deal.

[Robocaller]

6 hours ago, clancyphile said:

At the same time... could Taylor handle the position? Wiemer isn't far off, either, a 2023 debut (depending on the scenario it could be opening day or September).

So, there is power in the form of Taylor/Wiemer.

The bigger issue, to me, is fundamentals. Even with the shift being banned, the Brewers are falling short.

IMO, you don't trade Renfroe (through 2023) until Wiemer has proven himself to some degree as a major league hitter.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

IMO, you don't trade Renfroe (through 2023) until Wiemer has proven himself to some degree as a major league hitter.

The eagerness of some on here to rid ourselves of our only above .800 OPS hitter and veteran outfielder at a relatively low cost likewise perplexes me....

[clancyphile]

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The eagerness of some on here to rid ourselves of our only above .800 OPS hitter and veteran outfielder at a relatively low cost likewise perplexes me....

Based on the last two seasons, I think the Brewers get comparable performance from a Wiemer/Taylor platoon for a few million dollars less.

[Hopper]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The eagerness of some on here to rid ourselves of our only above .800 OPS hitter and veteran outfielder at a relatively low cost likewise perplexes me....

Same here, I just don't get it.

 

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Based on the last two seasons, I think the Brewers get comparable performance from a Wiemer/Taylor platoon for a few million dollars less.

Maybe. BUT, you're going to need proven production while the rookies take time to develop. Maybe they develop faster than expected and we can trade Renfroe for a reliever or something at the deadline. But getting rid of him now with our lack of upper-tier hitting options is incredibly risky at only a few extra million dollars in savings. Not worth it. 

And what's the point of platooning Wiemer and Taylor when they both hit from the same-side...

[NBBrewFan]

27 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The eagerness of some on here to rid ourselves of our only above .800 OPS hitter and veteran outfielder at a relatively low cost likewise perplexes me....

I agree he has value even with an arbitration raise and you can't replace every player so you work with where you can get the biggest upgrade.  Where I kinda understand the apathy for most of the players is that this was a very dysfunctional offense.  The team was 21st in MLB in hits and 22nd (30=worst) for K% so we were entertained by tanking level hitting performance.  I get that they still scored a lot of runs, but it was a very boring, frustrating team that was either hitting an extra base every few innings, or putting multiple runners on then striking out multiple times to kill a scoring opportunity or they were hitting a solo HR.  When the failure rate goes up the perception is the team isn't good and that can paint every player as bad. I expect as we start seeing offseason moves there will be fewer knee-jerk proposals.

[NBBrewFan]

22 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Based on the last two seasons, I think the Brewers get comparable performance from a Wiemer/Taylor platoon for a few million dollars less.

In 2024.  They brought up Mitchell this year and he showed enough that I think he gets a long look for 2023.  I think Frelick will be up and manning an OF spot in 2023.  That's really 2 rookies.  If they push it they will also incorporate Turang into a significant role.  That get's you to 3 rookies. If they keep both Burnes and Woodruff that's already pushing how much offense with an uncertainty of what you will get in performance while still trying to ride them to a playoff appearance.  I really don't see Wiemer in the 2023 plans and if they do have Frelick and Turang in the plans for 2023 then I am fine waiting to bring up more.  Now if they decide to trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames or 2 of 3 then Renfroe might be on the market too, but even in that scenario I think they keep Yelich in LF and have Mitchell/Frelick handle CF/RF.

[NBBrewFan]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

And what's the point of platooning Wiemer and Taylor when they both hit from the same-side...

While Clancy has proposed some "interesting" position changes he hasn't gone so far as to propose a batter change from hitting left handed to right handed (or vice versa). I called it first if he does.

[UpandIn]

53 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

IMO, you don't trade Renfroe (through 2023) until Wiemer has proven himself to some degree as a major league hitter.

I definitely agree on this. Wiemer has too many moving parts and too much swing and miss to count on him as a rookie. I could see him jumping out to a hot start like Hiura and then having to adjust, but I think it's more likely he just struggles to hit for average as a rookie.

If they could swing a trade for a big bat at 3B/1B or even just an everyday DH, then I'd be more inclined to roll the dice with Wiemer, but as it stands, you're already likely counting on 3 rookies to contribute(Frelick, Mitchell, Ruiz) unless you make a trade. That's a lot. 

I also hate the idea of getting rid of Hiura and if they do so, I really hope they at least get back someone who has similar skill and talent. This is a guy who hit ~300 with a .940 OPS as a rookie hitting 38 HRs(19AAA, 19 MLB). I know that'll be 4 years old, but he made a LOT of adjustments this past year. So if you're just getting the proverbial bag of balls for him, then the risk/reward to bringing him back definitely skews toward keeping him. 

Of course it's pretty clear the Brewers are not high on him.

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

Based on the last two seasons, I think the Brewers get comparable performance from a Wiemer/Taylor platoon for a few million dollars less.

That is pie in the sky thinking. Renfroe has literally been our best hitter this year. Wiemer shouldn't be on the opening day roster. Renfroe shouldn't be traded unless the Brewers get a great offer for him that brings back a good bat..

 

 

[Robocaller]

How do we get Rowdy to play less 1B and more DH?