Looking ahead to 2023 Brewers

[edfunderburk]

 

I hope this ongoing non-productive lineup looks considerably different next season 

I’d be delighted if we do a major roster turnover with trades, minor league promotions, & a few free agent signings 

Anything but running it back 

2022 has been a severely disappointing season overall 

I’m not in favor of replacing Counsell - he deserves another chance with a new  & improved team

[wibadgers23]

We certainly don’t need to do a full rebuild but I would welcome a shake up of sorts, especially with the offense. Let the young outfielders play, move Yelich to DH, shore up the catcher position, trade for or sign an adequate corner IF, etc. There’s lots of things Stearns can do this offseason so we’ll see. 

[MrTPlush]

It’s not often I would consider an entire trade deadline a “F”, but David Stearns could not have possibly been any more of a failure. He traded Hader instantly making a quite iffy bullpen total garbage. The guys he got to fill the void were complete disasters. The best of the bunch was Trevor Rosenthal. Who? Yah, the injured guy he traded for and didn’t throw a pitch.

What a pathetic message they sent to fans at the deadline and the bullpen blew chunks the rest of the year.

Honestly, I’m not sure where they go from here. My gut says they will go into 2023 without trading a major player (Woodruff/Burnes/Adames) and will try to create a division winning team before trading multiple if not all after 2023. Yelich to DH seems likely so Mitchell/Frelick/etc. can fill two OF spots…Renfroe needs to return. Wong is either kept or traded. My opinion is to keep Wong as three rookie starters seems like too much.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

 

I hope this ongoing non-productive lineup looks considerably different next season 

I’d be delighted if we do a major roster turnover with trades, minor league promotions, & a few free agent signings 

Anything but running it back 

2022 has been a severely disappointing season overall 

I’m not in favor of replacing Counsell - he deserves another chance with a new  & improved team

How about a guy that can hit over .260? And less all for nothing swings. You got to be kidding me with some of their approaches. And some speed on the bases. And opportunities to strategize with a bunt. The entire team is a .230 hitter with about 18 HRs and a bunch of strike outs. The baseball is pure awful to watch offensively. I literally expect nothing from any one of our hitters. 
 

I remember the days of Braun and Fielder. When the entire team struggled hitting, you still believed in those two guys for the most part. Now, it is woefully bad. Our best hitters have a worse average than Gorman.

[Axman59]

Stearns needs to go. He did well when he was exchanging Melvin's veterans for lottery tickets, some of which hit, but in the last couple of years he has shown himself to be a poor GM. Intolerable for a team like the Brewers. Fire Stearns and let Matt Arnold run the team and let's see if things improve.

[Axman59]

2 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

It’s not often I would consider an entire trade deadline a “F”, but David Stearns could not have possibly been any more of a failure. The guys he got to fill the void were complete disasters. The best of the bunch was Trevor Rosenthal. Who? Yah, the injured guy he traded for and didn’t throw a pitch.

It's true!

Trevor Rosenthal  0.0 WAR

Matt Bush -0.5 WAR

Taylor Rogers -0.6 WAR

 

The Brewers would have been better off calling up some chumps from AAA than trading for and using Bush and Rogers.

[MrTPlush]

23 minutes ago, Axman59 said:

Stearns needs to go. He did well when he was exchanging Melvin's veterans for lottery tickets, some of which hit, but in the last couple of years he has shown himself to be a poor GM. Intolerable for a team like the Brewers. Fire Stearns and let Matt Arnold run the team and let's see if things improve.

I’m not ready to put Stearns in the hot seat. You are right that a lot of the current success is thanks to being left with a really generous state of the organization and a way better Attanasio to work with than Melvin ever had.…but he still has created good teams himself and made lots of good moves. He still has the organization in a pretty good spot and a nice minor league pipeline.

However, I am kind coming to the conclusion Stearns is probably not the magical unicorn GM everyone kinda labeled him after 2018. I am getting concerned about his philosophy on winning or whatever he is trying to do. He refuses to help the team at the deadline with anything that would cost a decent prospect or two and his bullpen handling at the deadline was a joke. I’m all for trying to extend the window of competing at the expense of maybe not having a juggernaut team for a year or two…but Stearns literally torpedoed a team leading the division into an unwatchable choke job. Stearns refuses to add anything of note, but readily trades away one of the teams best players. That is simply nuts.

If we rewind time back to 2015 and I tell you in a few years we would have two of the best starters in baseball (arguably three aces) and we proceeded to trade the best closer in baseball creating a net loss at the deadline this entire board would probably tell you to burn down the stadium…never to watch baseball again and demand the release of both aces for their own good.

Again, not saying Stearns hasn’t done a good job..,but his last 12 months could not have been any worse. He simply has got to be better than he has been of late and maybe we don’t need to hoard 10 OF prospects.

[Jopal78]

The question is where do they get better in the short run? They had some injuries to the starting pitching but most of their hitters performed to their career norms and it just wasn’t good enough. The bullpen was outside of Hader, Williams and Suter, and in need of a rebuild. 
 

Calling up a bunch of rookie hitters sounds great, and maybe they catch lightning in a bottle on one, but Mitchell played every bit like rookie (tantalizing moments coupled with kids of strike outs) which is the more likely scenario. 

Perhaps it’s time to take a step back next year,  shuffle the deck, and look to build a contender for ‘24.  Look to trade everyone they can  not named Burnes, Adames and Williams. Break in their rookies, add some veteran stop gaps and hope for the best in ‘23.

[DHonks]

I'm kind of at a loss with the Brewers.  They have some players to build around and they have some talent.  But they also can't afford to build long-term around their current pitchers while retaining Wong, Renfroe, etc.  I see both moving on after this year.  While the numbers show Wong and Adames had good years, they both were a let down more often than not with the eye test.  

Philosophically, they know what they value and we can only guess.  In the past I've previously said I believe the reaction from MLB to the pitching labs will be finding line-drive hitters that put the ball in play.  Guys like Mitchell, Ruiz, Turang, and Frelick fit the bill.  Basically, I believe the launch angle-led metrics worked well 4-10 years ago when guys were throwing 92 mph and didn't have the data to help them get the most out of their arsenals.  Guys that 5 years ago were hitting 30+ homers and striking out 20% of the time are now hitting fewer homers and striking out more. Two major pitching changes we've seen in the last 5 years:

• data analysis taught pitchers that 4-seamers up in the zone worked better than sinkers, especially when mixed with breaking balls down (ie using the verticality of the zone moreso than the horizontal).  Pitchers now dominate the top of the zone. 
• pitching labs helped optimize fastball velocity and pitch movement,

These made the launch angle hitting training obsolete.  Throw in the deadened ball as a factor.  How many well hit balls seemed to die at the track??  We've seen teams like the Brewers shifting to drafting good hitters that use the entire field.  

So here's what I see happening in the offseason:

• Brewers letting Narvaez test the market, unless resigned for $2M or less
• Wong let go
• Renfroe traded to attempt to land us help at 3b, or potential high impact position players.   
• Yelich is kept due to contract, but also because the analytics dept will believe that the new anti-shifting rules alone could raise his average by 20 points.  Yelich becomes primary DH option
• Brewers either trade Urias or enter 2023 with him as primary utility player
• Peterson returns as either 3b or utility player
• Fitting my suggestion of hitters that work counts, spray the ball, have speed, and play good defense, we'll open with Taylor in RF, Mitchell in CF, Ruiz in LF, and Turang at 2b.  Frelick is 4th OF playing a lot all over OF.  Knowing they have several more stud OF prospects waiting in the high minors gives some comfort.  
• This cheap lineup allows us to lock up Woodruff to a 5 year contract in the neighborhood of $100M.  The team attempts to work out deals with Lauer and Burnes.  If we're lucky, one signs for 4-6 years...most likely Lauer.  

[MrTPlush]

They aren’t punting ‘23 and hoping for ‘24. Not without trading away all of Burnes/Woodruff/Adames/Tellez. Those guys aren’t getting rode all the way to FA. Won’t happen, so anyone not extended would get traded

Can we really improve the offense? Through FA? I doubt it. Everyone is going to want to dump Wong and apparently even Renfroe. They were our two best hitter and it really wasn’t particularly close. Best way to improve the offense is A) probably not dumping both our best hitters or B) pray on the rookie or C) stop hoarding every prospect so we have don’t enough to man 3 entire OFs.

Realistically, you keep Renfroe to start. You depend on maybe two rookies getting starter ABs to start the year. Maybe find one ‘value FA’. Lastly, try to trade for a solid hitter. That’s the best route with limited funds to shake up the offense and still probably have it be competent…with some potential the rookies make it something better.

[Jopal78]

34 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

They aren’t punting ‘23 and hoping for ‘24. Not without trading away all of Burnes/Woodruff/Adames/Tellez. Those guys aren’t getting rode all the way to FA. Won’t happen, so anyone not extended would get traded

Can we really improve the offense? Through FA? I doubt it. Everyone is going to want to dump Wong and apparently even Renfroe. They were our two best hitter and it really wasn’t particularly close. Best way to improve the offense is A) probably not dumping both our best hitters or B) pray on the rookie or C) stop hoarding every prospect so we have don’t enough to man 3 entire OFs.

Realistically, you keep Renfroe to start. You depend on maybe two rookies getting starter ABs to start the year. Maybe find one ‘value FA’. Lastly, try to trade for a solid hitter. That’s the best route with limited funds to shake up the offense and still probably have it be competent…with some potential the rookies make it something better.

The ‘22 Brewers will finish last in the NL amongst the teams actively trying to compete. The above scenario basically would tow the line, with a chance to maybe be better if they’re lucky. 
 

There’s nothing wrong with that, but my point is why waste a year spinning their wheels? They need to have a plan for the future, they would win enough in the short run with Burnes, Peralta, Williams, Yelich, etc. to remain relevant and could start laying pierces for a serious contender in ‘24.

I’d exercise Wong’s option, but I expect the Brewers to let him go. Renfroe is an .800ish OPS corner OFer who will make 10 million dollars next year. Not necessarily a bargain and not necessarily a hitter they can’t live without which leads me to believe he should be non-tendered especially with the glut of minor league outfielders the Brewers have in AAA.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The ‘22 Brewers will finish last in the NL amongst the teams actively trying to compete. The above scenario basically would tow the line, with a chance to maybe be better if they’re lucky. 
 

There’s nothing wrong with that, but my point is why waste a year spinning their wheels? They need to have a plan for the future, they would win enough in the short run with Burnes, Peralta, Williams, Yelich, etc. to remain relevant and could start laying pierces for a serious contender in ‘24.

I’d exercise Wong’s option, but I expect the Brewers to let him go. Renfroe is an .800ish OPS corner OFer who will make 10 million dollars next year. Not necessarily a bargain and not necessarily a hitter they can’t live without which leads me to believe he should be non-tendered especially with the glut of minor league outfielders the Brewers have in AAA.

Look at some of the contracts that players much, much worse than Renfroe get on the open market. He won't be non-tendered. If he isn't in RF opening day next year, it means they dealt him. The return wouldn't be spectacular, but it should be decent.

[MrTPlush]

7 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The ‘22 Brewers will finish last in the NL amongst the teams actively trying to compete. The above scenario basically would tow the line, with a chance to maybe be better if they’re lucky. 
 

There’s nothing wrong with that, but my point is why waste a year spinning their wheels? They need to have a plan for the future, they would win enough in the short run with Burnes, Peralta, Williams, Yelich, etc. to remain relevant and could start laying pierces for a serious contender in ‘24.

I’d exercise Wong’s option, but I expect the Brewers to let him go. Renfroe is an .800ish OPS corner OFer who will make 10 million dollars next year. Not necessarily a bargain and not necessarily a hitter they can’t live without which leads me to believe he should be non-tendered especially with the glut of minor league outfielders the Brewers have in AAA.

If you move Yelich to DH, why not keep Renfroe in the OF? We aren't going to trot out 3 rookie OFers, I just don't really see that happening. 

Your concept of punting '23 is fine...but only if they use DHonks logic of extending Woodruff. If they aren't extending Burnes or Woodruff, neither should be on the '24 to begin with (along with Adames). If you don't want to compete and aren't extending one of those guys, you might as well rebuild now and shoot for '25. Hopefully Peralta can be made out of something sturdier than glass and Ashby can form into something solid...and by then hopefully these young guys aren't only on the team, but also hitting. 

[Hacksaw Jim Duggan]

Forget about fixing the offense.  If the bullpen would have done its job the Brewers would have made the playoffs this year.  The arms are tired.  Too many pitches are getting too much of the plate suggesting the pitchers are mentally worn.  Stearns needs to completely revamp the bullpen.  Everyone has failed including Williams.  He has not earned the closer role since the Hader trade.  Closers are lights out, when he pitches the game is anything but secured.  

Another problem that Stearns needs to own is the complete lack of bullpen options in the minor leagues.  He has drafted position players at about a 3 to 1 rate over pitchers the past 3 or 4 years.  He prefers taking flyers on pitchers for example high school arms or JUCO arms.  This finally caught up to the team this year.  Now it's a glaring weakness that he can't fix with the farm system alone.  He will need to be creative to get fresh arms and mentally strong pitchers.  I prefer Williams in an 8 inning role and Boxburger in the seventh seems the Brewers were on a role when these guys new their roles.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Look at some of the contracts that players much, much worse than Renfroe get on the open market. He won't be non-tendered. If he isn't in RF opening day next year, it means they dealt him. The return wouldn't be spectacular, but it should be decent.

Sure, but Renfroe has been with 4 organizations in his first five years of service time, the Brewers acquired him in essentially a salary dump for prospects with Boston, and Renfroe went out an put up his career line. I get it the Brewers offense sucked and he looks good amongst their other Punch and Judy hitters, but Renfroe is textbook mediocre slugger, and I wouldn’t be surprised a bit if they felt they could more effectively use the 10 million he’ll cost in ‘23. 

[nate82]

52 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I’d exercise Wong’s option, but I expect the Brewers to let him go. Renfroe is an .800ish OPS corner OFer who will make 10 million dollars next year. Not necessarily a bargain and not necessarily a hitter they can’t live without which leads me to believe he should be non-tendered especially with the glut of minor league outfielders the Brewers have in AAA.

That is just dumb.  Non-tendering someone like Renfroe is just stupid and a good way to set your franchise back 5-10 years.  There would be plenty of teams who would trade for Renfroe so non-tendering him would be just dumb and foolish to do so.  If Renfroe were a free agent he would get more than $10m a season and there would be about 5-10 teams looking to sign him.  A 124 wRC+ player is not someone you just non-tender.  

[Outlander]

What you are saying makes complete sense but Renfroe's numbers are pretty much exactly the same as last year. The Red Sox got a couple of prospects and a bad contract in Bradley in return. We may think the Brewers should get something decent in return but based on what happened last year probably not, especially since he will be even more expensive. I hope they keep him.

[MrTPlush]

Brewer Fans: Our offense was absolutely a big disgrace

Also Brewer Fans: Lets non tender our best hitter of 2022 because he will cost 1/$10mil.

[JRob1125]

I'm not sure if there's another team that's bern haunted by sabermetrics as much as the Brewers have. If this team were a hitter, he have a line like .230 AVG, 30 HR, 80 RBI, .300 OBP and 150 strikeouts in a season. I can not emphasis how much I hate this type of baseball.

We need contact hitters who can get on base. 

LF: Ruiz

CF: Mitchell

RF: Renfroe

DH: Yelich

1B: Tellez

2B: Turang

3B: Urias

SS: Adames

? No one in sight. Need a free agent or trade.

 

I'd be fine with this lineup and interested to see what they can do. I'd even be okay with bringing McCutchen back as a 4th outfielder, but they can probably put Frelick in that role. I think this would be a pretty solid team.

 

[NBBrewFan]

Mitchell has 0.6 fWAR in 60 PA.  He is above average in baserunning and defense and has the 2nd best wRC+ of any starter not Hunter Renfroe. The notion that rookies can't contribute is just a biased viewpoint that's ignorant of data.  Some players struggle during their first exposure to MLB, some don't, some never are better than their first 300 PA.  Mitchell has struggled since coming up, but he has also shown indications that he can handle a full-time role and give the Brewers better production than most of their other options. He may only be a 2-3 WAR player, but this offense needs that. As much as Stearns deserves taking some heat, they made a good decision to bring up Mitchell.

I think Frelick is a better player than Mitchell and hopefully will transition better than Mitchell, but even with some initial struggles he will likely be more productive than our $26M man (not that low a bar). Ruiz will struggle, Turang will initially, but should be able to adjust.

Let the prospects FREE!  Frelick and Mitchell in LF/CF, Renfroe in RF (Taylor as 4th). Ruiz in AAA learning more (hopefully). Turang/Urias/Adames for 2B/3B/SS based on best defensive production.  Tellez at 1B.  

Starting Pitching is a bit of an uncertainty, but they have an excellent 1-3 in Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta.  Houser and Lauer are capable, 4/5 men, with the current 1-3.  If the Brewers can't extend Woodruff they should trade him or Burnes for the best package, but some ideas have been to Mets for Baty or Texas for Jung both of which would be the 3B of the future for the Brewers or to Baltimore for Rodriguez/Holliday which brings back a SP replacement and a future SS.  If they trade one of Burnes/Woodruff then they either slot Ashby into the rotation, or look for a 1 year vet FA that can slot into the rotation and have Ashby spend another year in the bullpen.

Relief pitching is a mess. Williams and Milner are good enough. Boxberger should be signed.  None of them are ideal closers and Milner/Boxberger are 6/7 inning options. Cousins is always hurt so I wouldn't count on him at all (if he is success in 2023 then that's bullpen upside). The rest are JAGs. Bush would be fine if they had 2 better options. So Stearns needs to find at least 2 RP arms with upside including one that has closer ability. Good luck.

Catching will not be great, but could be fine with Caratini & Severeno.  Narvaez has been pretty much useless this year and will be gone.

That leaves Yelich for DH and either Wong/Peterson as a bench bat.  Wong's defense is so bad that he really should not see the field which makes him a poor backup option for the Infield.  While Wong's bat is likely worth picking up the option, he very likely doesn't have a role as Yelich should be the fulltime DH. Picking up the option and trading him sounds interesting, but I can't think of another similar situation in baseball.

Trading Adames and both of Woodruff and Burnes should be on the table as their best trade value is this offseason, but that means losing your 2 best pitchers and best hitter and that isn't a recipe for a World Series Championship, but we aren't getting there with them and with the current bullpen and with the current hitters.  While I think they should only trade 1, I can see them Trading 2 or even all 3 if the right deal comes along.

If they decide to run it back with most of the same cast and a little tinkering with the bullpen that will just free up a lot more of my time next year.

[MrTPlush]

5 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

The notion that rookies can't contribute is just a biased viewpoint that's ignorant of data. 

1) I don't think anyone said that. 

2) The only thing that is ignorant is calling people's point of view ignorant and than providing absolutely nothing about this data that people are ignorantly ignoring according to you. Good Job.

[NBBrewFan]

2 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

1) I don't think anyone said that. 

 

10 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Calling up a bunch of rookie hitters sounds great, and maybe they catch lightning in a bottle on one, but Mitchell played every bit like rookie (tantalizing moments coupled with kids of strike outs) which is the more likely scenario.

 

3 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

2) The only thing that is ignorant is calling people's point of view ignorant and than providing absolutely nothing about this data that people are ignorantly ignoring. Good Job.

Reread what I posted, because I didn't call anyone's point of view as ignorant. The adjective for viewpoint was "biased" not ignorant. Try being less of the forum "tough guy" and you might not look like an ass so often.

[brewers888]

Is anyone interested besides me in addressing the elephant in the room which is Stearns and his contractual situation. I think its unreasonable to have the top decisionmaker in the organization as a lame duck just biding time till he can go home to the big spending Mets.

Stearns can no longer run this team without committing long term and I don't see why others don't agree. If we are being honest the guy has done a pretty terrible job since at least the 21 trade deadline with the Hader deal basically being a sign of completely waiving the white flag when the team was in first place.

I am in favor of keeping Stearns on board long term but if he is unwilling to commit let him go. If he wants out go out and get Luhnow or John Hart who are just the type of great organization builders that Stearns has been with both having the long term track records that Arnold does not have. Keeping Stearns on the last year of his deal with no extension in place should not even be a consideration for an organization that always has to have the future in mind when making moves. Personally I would bring in John Hart and keep Arnold or whoever Hart decides to choose as his eventual successor as he is probably close to retirement. No matter what letting Stearns run things on the last year of a deal is beyond foolish and something I hope the organization chooses not to do.

[MrTPlush]

Garrett Mitchell is ending the year with a nice statline at face value...but we are talking about 52 ABs. One big game will skew that to be good. The guy has been on a hot streak to end the year, but most of his time this year he was sporting a pretty ugly line. Was he just getting comfortable and now he is going to be really good moving forward? Hard to say, I have quite a bit of optimism because his hot streak also saw his K-rate plummet. His last 15 PAs feature only four Ks and no multi game performances. That still isn't great, but better than how he started. 

I don't have a problem going with Mitchell plus other rookies...but yah, it is a huge risk and they could be mega flops next year. Just depends on how hard you are trying to compete and long term intentions with the roster. 

[MrTPlush]

3 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Is anyone interested besides me in addressing the elephant in the room which is Stearns and his contractual situation. I think its unreasonable to have the top decisionmaker in the organization as a lame duck just biding time till he can go home to the big spending Mets.

 

Stearns won't go into the season as a lame duck. The Brewers will extend him or (not likely) he leaves. 

The Mets don't want him though, so I don't think that is the concern it was the past few years. I don't know that Stearns is the flashy name he was in the past.