Esteury Ruiz Prospect Ranking Discussion

[MYaegs]

Why so low on Ruiz?  Speed, great walk rate.. major league ready?

[RedStickBrew]

1 hour ago, MYaegs said:

Why so low on Ruiz?  Speed, great walk rate.. major league ready?

I like Ruiz quite a bit.  I like the guys ranked above him even better.  The way he finished the regular season, along with questions I still have about his power and defense are why he is 8, which I don't agree is low given the quality of the Brewers top prospects

[ARobsBrewCrew]

1 hour ago, RedStickBrew said:

I like Ruiz quite a bit.  I like the guys ranked above him even better.  The way he finished the regular season, along with questions I still have about his power and defense are why he is 8, which I don't agree is low given the quality of the Brewers top prospects

Should be pointed out that Ruiz was possibly the Brewers farm system’s hottest hitter over the past three weeks.  I assume, however, you are referring to his struggles in the big leagues which is fair.

[RedStickBrew]

56 minutes ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Should be pointed out that Ruiz was possibly the Brewers farm system’s hottest hitter over the past three weeks.  I assume, however, you are referring to his struggles in the big leagues which is fair.

I was referring to the 0-20 streak he had right near the end of the season.  Not that it alone would have made a difference where I ranked him though.

[ARobsBrewCrew]

2 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

I was referring to the 0-20 streak he had right near the end of the season.  Not that it alone would have made a difference where I ranked him though.

Ruiz hit .333 at AAA in September (60 AB) with 3 HR, 14 RBI, and 15 SB.  Not sure where his 0-20 was but that means he went 20-40 the rest of the month…

[ARobsBrewCrew]

4 hours ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

3 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

I was referring to the 0-20 streak he had right near the end of the season.  Not that it alone would have made a difference where I ranked him though.

Should also point out that I don’t disagree with your ranking I just don’t quite understand that point you were making given his outstanding month of September.

[RedStickBrew]

49 minutes ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Should also point out that I don’t disagree with your ranking I just don’t quite understand that point you were making given his outstanding month of September.

The point was that a recency bias may have played a some part in my mind as I was going down the list. Ruiz's  OPS dropped from somewhere around the .950s to the .850s during that 4-5 game hitless stretch starting around September 20 and I may have dropped him down a spot or two as that was fresh in my mind regarding him.

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, RedStickBrew said:

The point was that a recency bias may have played a some part in my mind as I was going down the list. Ruiz's  OPS dropped from somewhere around the .950s to the .850s during that 4-5 game hitless stretch starting around September 20 and I may have dropped him down a spot or two as that was fresh in my mind regarding him.

You could make a VERY strong argument to put Ruiz 2 spots lower(in fact, I think I might). 

And I don't like looking at it this way. Ruiz is impressive. Those guys are more impressive. 

 

9 hours ago, MYaegs said:

Why so low on Ruiz?  Speed, great walk rate.. major league ready?

That's not low on Ruiz, that's high on the other prospects. 

1-Top 10 prospects in all MiLB
2-Top ~40 prospect in MiLB
3-Top ~75
4-A elite defensive catcher who hit VERY well in HiA.
5-Basically the build a player in a video game with all the tools who's producing at the MLB level. 
6-AAA pitcher who profiles as a #2/3 and more than held his own. Small sample size at AAA, but his stuff is elite. 
7-An elite defensive SS who added power as the year went on and is even younger.

 

So again, not about being "low" on Ruiz as he said, just a very good top 10. And if you were to put Black, -who may well be in AAA right now with the other studs if not for a fluke injury as he was playing REALLY well at the time of the injury or Misiorowski, a kid who's got a nasty, if inconsistent slider that he throws in the low 90s to go with a FB that touches 102...and he's 6'7 and skinny...meaning he's got some projection left as well as some development. Not that he'll add to his FB velo, but he may be able to maintain it deeper into games or just sit closer to the top end like an Alcantra or a deGrom.

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, ARobsBrewCrew said:

Should also point out that I don’t disagree with your ranking I just don’t quite understand that point you were making given his outstanding month of September.

He went 0-18 from Sept 20th-Sept 24th. He I don't know if he made an out in his last AB on the 19th or his first two on the 25th, but...he was at least 0-18. 

[ARobsBrewCrew]

16 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

He went 0-18 from Sept 20th-Sept 24th. He I don't know if he made an out in his last AB on the 19th or his first two on the 25th, but...he was at least 0-18. 

Just shows what an outstanding month he had I guess… wow

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

He went 0-18 from Sept 20th-Sept 24th. He I don't know if he made an out in his last AB on the 19th or his first two on the 25th, but...he was at least 0-18. 

And he got 3, 2 and 2 hits in the 3 games before those 4, and 2 and 2 hits in the two final games of the season. So in the 9-game stretch which is centered on 4 Oh-For games, he still hit about .290.

[RedStickBrew]

4 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

And he got 3, 2 and 2 hits in the 3 games before those 4, and 2 and 2 hits in the two final games of the season. So in the 9-game stretch which is centered on 4 Oh-For games, he still hit about .290.

All the hoopla about Ruiz seems to center around the fact that I pointed out how he "finished" the season.  I based that on his final 30 ABs where he hit .200 with 2 Doubles and 8Ks and I distinctly remembered a multi-game hitless streak during that span.

The fact is he was white-hot and had his OPS above .950 at one point in mid September. Then tailed off somewhat at the end of the season.  

No matter how he finished, he had an amazing overall season and is a top prospect- some struggles are going to happen from time to time with any player.

[Robocaller]

37 minutes ago, RedStickBrew said:

All the hoopla about Ruiz seems to center around the fact that I pointed out how he "finished" the season.  I based that on his final 30 ABs where he hit .200 with 2 Doubles and 8Ks and I distinctly remembered a multi-game hitless streak during that span.

The fact is he was white-hot and had his OPS above .950 at one point in mid September. Then tailed off somewhat at the end of the season.  

No matter how he finished, he had an amazing overall season and is a top prospect- some struggles are going to happen from time to time with any player.

and you don't realize how you cherry-picked that 30AB chunk? If you increase it to his last 38 AB, it goes up to .2895.

[RedStickBrew]

19 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

and you don't realize how you cherry-picked that 30AB chunk? If you increase it to his last 38 AB, it goes up to .2895.

Yes, I realize I cherry picked the final 30AB to illustrate how he struggled over the last 30 ABs to finish the season. That was about the point that he had about a 100 point drop in his OPS which seems significant.

I also acknowledged he was "white hot" prior to those 30 ABs.  I am aware that if I continue add more at bats then his overall numbers will look better.

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Robocaller said:

And he got 3, 2 and 2 hits in the 3 games before those 4, and 2 and 2 hits in the two final games of the season. So in the 9-game stretch which is centered on 4 Oh-For games, he still hit about .290.

Ok...and? All those things can be true. You can add the games before that, but all that happened was someone stated he had an 0-20 stretch, someone else asked when and I answered and it was the final week of the regular season. 4 of the last 6 games. So he didn't like the way he ended up he said recency bias may have somewhat affected that. 

It's not a referendum on some larger point, someone asked when something happened, I stated when. 

 

This has gotten off to a weird start though with the having to justify the rankings and the defensiveness. I thought he had Ruiz pretty fairly ranked. A touch higher than I would have...and maybe a bit lower than others may have him(though it does feel like a pretty solid top 7). 

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, RedStickBrew said:

Yes, I realize I cherry picked the final 30AB to illustrate how he struggled over the last 30 ABs to finish the season. That was about the point that he had about a 100 point drop in his OPS which seems significant.

I also acknowledged he was "white hot" prior to those 30 ABs.  I am aware that if I continue add more at bats then his overall numbers will look better.

I get it. Being hitless in 4 straight games says soooo much about a player.
Wait! I know probability; no it doesn't!

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, RedStickBrew said:

Yes, I realize I cherry picked the final 30AB to illustrate how he struggled over the last 30 ABs to finish the season. That was about the point that he had about a 100 point drop in his OPS which seems significant.

I also acknowledged he was "white hot" prior to those 30 ABs.  I am aware that if I continue add more at bats then his overall numbers will look better.

Quote

I like Ruiz quite a bit.  I like the guys ranked above him even better.  The way he finished the regular season, along with questions I still have about his power and defense are why he is 8, which I don't agree is low given the quality of the Brewers top prospects

The 2nd seems like a perfectly reasonable answer. You're going to be splitting hairs. 

Had Ruiz come from a different system that wasn't SO incredibly top heavy with MIFers and if they'd kept developing him at 2B...he might have a lot more value, but with Abrams and Rosario, they moved him out to LF. 

But it appears that...ONE comment about not finishing the season strong is again, just SO egregious, we're not going to be able to let that go. I'm sorry, with absolutely no authority to make this decision, your ranking will not be taken into consideration this time around! LOL...

[Robocaller]

16 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

Ok...and? All those things can be true. You can add the games before that, but all that happened was someone stated he had an 0-20 stretch, someone else asked when and I answered and it was the final week of the regular season. 4 of the last 6 games. So he didn't like the way he ended up he said recency bias may have somewhat affected that. 

It's not a referendum on some larger point, someone asked when something happened, I stated when. 

 

This has gotten off to a weird start though with the having to justify the rankings and the defensiveness. I thought he had Ruiz pretty fairly ranked. A touch higher than I would have...and maybe a bit lower than others may have him(though it does feel like a pretty solid top 7). 

I didn't have any issue with the ranking; such rankings are arbitrary. I had issue with the "reasoning" that was given. Giving significance to 4 hitless games sandwiched between 5 multiple hit games is fatuous. The guy had 11 hits in his last 9 games.
And I'll apologize for contributing to this tangent.

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

I haven’t published my list yet, but I am going to have Ruiz 9 because someone from that tier has to be. For me, after Chourio, 2-4 are really close, and the same for 5-9, 10-11, 12-13, and 14-20.

It is nice the system has so many prospects coming off big years that the answer to “Why do you have prospect X so low?” is “I really like prospects Y and Z.”

I know I am going to be using that sentence with mine, substituting Frelick for X and Quero and Wiemer for Y and Z.