Brewers Need a Miracle... Like 2008

[BruisedCrew]

With 9 games remaining, the Brewers playoff hopes are on life support. Factoring in the tie breaker disadvantage, they are 2.5 games behind the Phillies and 4 games behind the Padres. Fangraphs lists the Brewers playoff probability at 20.7% and 538 shows a slightly more encouraging 31%. The "elimination number" for the Phillies to close out the Brewers is 8; for the Padres the number is 6. In other words, if the Phillies win 8 of their last 10 (which is certainly possible given their schedule) and the Padres win 6 of their last 9, the Brewers can win out and still be out of the playoff picture.

If you're looking for something from the past to give you hope, I would point to the wild card chase in 2008. In early September the Brewers looked to be playoff bound with a 5 game lead over the Phillies for the wild card spot. But an early September slump, capped by a 4 game sweep by the Phillies, erased that lead. Now tied with the Phillies and 12 games remaining, the Brewers fired manager Ned Yost hoping a change would bring the team out of its funk.

Popular lore would have you believe that the change to Dale Sveum inspired the Brewers to a late season charge, but it didn't exactly work that way. The Brewers lost 4 of their first 5 with Sveum at the helm and, with only 7 games to play, found themselves 3 games behind the Phillies and 2.5 games behind the Mets, who were feeling the pressure after blowing a 7 game division lead with just 17 games to play the year before.

The rest is history. The Brewers won the final game of a series in Cincinnati, then came home to sweep 3 from the hapless Pirates, and 2 of 3 from the Cubs, who were coasting into the playoffs. The Mets made it all possible by losing 5 of their last 8.

Maybe 2022 will produce a similar improbable finish. All we can do is hope.

[MrTPlush]

Okay....we aren't in that bad of shape. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

 

I don't know exactly how much popular lore exists that Sveum inspired that team. I simply believe it was more a case of getting rid of Ned than anything. His success in KC in the next decade can't be denied, but in '08 it just smelled too much to me like a repeat of 2007, when they were in position to reach the post season & fell short. All teams feel pressure, but rather than be a release valve to a team that hadn't played playoff baseball in decades I feel he added to it. They won 6 of their last 7 games in '08. I'm confident they wouldn't have done that w/o the change.

As to this season, I think 20 or 25% chance sounds about right. If they do fall short IMO it's the work of a couple recent blown leads (Colorado & at home vs NYM) added to their horrible stretch out of the trade deadline.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Is 1 in 5 (the worse of the two odds percentages) really a miracle?  If succeeding on a 31% chance is a miracle, should I sing hallelujah every time Willy Adames gets on base?  

I think they are who they've been all year, an 85-90 win team...which is a playoff team when things go well and outside looking in when they don't.  Pitching depth wasn't there when they needed it, so they're looking up at the danged Phillies, Padres, and Cardinals...considering their bad stretch after the trade deadline it's kind of surprising they have any chance at all. 

[NBBrewFan]

7 minutes ago, SoCalBrewfan said:

 If succeeding on a 31% chance is a miracle, should I sing hallelujah every time Willy Adames gets on base?

You don't?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

This is still very much alive. a 6-2 finish and a 4-5 from Philly would get the Brewers in.  Less likely than likely, but it's not in another galaxy yet or anything. Assuming we don't go on a 7-game skid right now, we should have a pretty good idea of the chances on Saturday when Phillies plays their doubleheader and is caught up on the number of games. 

I'd think we have to be 1 back by then. Tied going into the final 3 games. Hoping for better, but my random feeling has been all along that if we do take the spot it will be on the last day.

[MrTPlush]

The most realistic path starts with us going into Saturday down .5 game, them splitting, and then us winning. Then you are tied going into the last four days. That gives you a solid chance to take the last spot.

They have Woodruff/Burnes going the next two games and Friday is likely Peralta. Is it really that crazy to think we could easily pop off 3 wins in a row? That same Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta combo will cover the entire last series too.

So to put it simply, our best guys are covering 75% of the remaining games. And for all the people upset Houser faced a great pitcher...Alcantara is likely the Thursday starter against the reigning Cy Young...so y'all can back off that ledge. Alcantara will pitch nowhere near Sunday's game that likely has Houser going.

And if you really want to look ahead we unfortunately won't avoid Zac Gallen if he pitches again after tonight. He would likely face Woodruff next Monday or Burnes on Tuesday. We also will likely have to face Merrill Kelly the last game of the year. 

Of course a lot of that gets really fuzzy with non competing teams and if they even pitch who knows how long they do. 

[MrTPlush]

Looks like the Brewers have set up Burnes to pitch the season finale on Wednesday. I imagine Woodruff will pitch his scheduled day on Monday. Tuesday might be a total committee day.

Of course there is likely to be no need for Burnes to even pitch by then and we will end up just resting him to start the first WC game.

[HarveysWBs]

You asked for a miracle, and I give you the Philadelphia Phillies.

Half their remaining games against the feisty Cubs and juggernaut Astros, and all of their remaining games on the road.  This one should (SHOULD) go down to the wire.

But when has anything about this year gone the way it should for the Crew?  Here's hoping.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What the Brewers need is not a miracle, only for the Phillies to remember they're rostering 18 DHs and play accordingly.

[igor67]

For as rough as it has felt the Brewers are 14-12 so far in September. Obviously with where things stand at the moment not finishing off the sweep in Cincy hurts, but the Phillies have really been trying to help at 10-13 for the month.

[AKCheesehead]

From watching the highlights last night, the body language and feel of that Phillies team was not good.  There's definitely some blood in the water...

[Jim French Stepstool]

It would've been especially fun to nudge out SD for the last spot given the Hader deal. But overtaking Philly would be entertaining as well knowing the fan base in that town.

[RightFieldCoder]

It will feel like '08 when former Brewer Martin Maldonado hits a HR in the 8th to win the game for the Astros on Wednesday and send the Brewers to the playoffs.

[Oxy]

Go Cubs Go! (gargle spit/vomit)

[rickh150]

Mike and the Mechanics...