Castillo Extension as Woodruff Comp?

[sveumrules]

Luis Castillo is a starting pitcher in his age 29 season who just signed a 5 year, 108 million dollar contract extension one year out from free agency.

Since Brandon Woodruff is a starting pitcher in his age 29 season two years out from free agency, I thought maybe we could use that as a jumping off point.

Here’s how they stack up since Woodruff’s first season as a starter in 2019…

Castillo 2019-22: 100 GS | 587 IP | 27.0 K% | 9.0 BB% | 0.89 HR9 | 77 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 14.1 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR

Woodruff 2019-22: 90 GS | 516 IP | 29.9 K% | 6.3 BB% | 0.98 HR9 | 72 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 15.0 rWAR | 13.2 fWAR

About as close as it gets, really. Brandon better on a rate basis, Luis a lil more durable.

Given Woodruff has one extra year of Arby’s & won’t be hitting FA until after his age 31 season, maybe something like 6/125 would work for both parties?

Just for the sake of comparison, here is Burnes as a SP since 2020…

Corbin 2020-22: 68 GS | 405 IP | 33.3 K% | 6.3 BB% | 0.69 HR9 | 64 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 13.1 rWAR | 13.8 fWAR

Comparable WAR to Luis/Brandon, but in about 110-180 fewer IP on account of the massive edge in ERA- and FIP-.

[Brewcrew82]

Considering how he's going to be on the older side when he hits free agency as you state, I think this might work out for both parties. Brewers don't have to quite meet the usual market rate for an elite starting pitcher, and Woodruff gets the life-changing money right now while he's in prime form. This offseason is going to be the time to get this done imo. 

[MrTPlush]

If you can get him for $20mil a year it is worth considering. Though it is important to note Castillo has a very attainable vesting option ($25mil) if he throws 180 innings in the last year of the deal.

Woodruff is probably my favorite Brewer, but I would probably let him walk over giving him a big deal...but that is just me. That being said I would much rather give Woodruff $20mil versus Burnes at $30mil. 

[patrickgpe]

I always thought between Woodruff, Hader or Burnes, Woodruff was the most singable. If he will take this deal, do it. Trade Burnes with 2 years of control to get maximum return. 

[reillymcshane]

Woodruff is interesting. I like the guy a lot. But do you extend a pitcher who is entering his age 30 season, and who you have control of for two more years? I don't know the answer. 

The Castillo comp isn't bad, although Woody doesn't have Castillo's track record. 

Again, I can see both ways on this. 

[sveumrules]

12 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

Woodruff is interesting. I like the guy a lot. But do you extend a pitcher who is entering his age 30 season, and who you have control of for two more years? I don't know the answer. 

The Castillo comp isn't bad, although Woody doesn't have Castillo's track record. 

Again, I can see both ways on this. 

Yeah, even for as good as Woody’s been (9th in rWAR & 11th in fWAR since 2019) the idea of locking any pitcher up on a big money long term extension with the Yelich contract already on the books feels like a dicey proposition.

If they were to extend anyone this off-season for big money my guess would be Adames since there is seemingly less risk in his profile as a legit defensive SS with the arm/power to slide to 3B down the road if needed plus the intangibles & leadership stuff.

But even then, you’re getting into 50 million a year tied up in Christian/Willy for like the next six seasons, which is a pretty big percentage of the payroll.

[MrTPlush]

13 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

Woodruff is interesting. I like the guy a lot. But do you extend a pitcher who is entering his age 30 season, and who you have control of for two more years? I don't know the answer. 

The Castillo comp isn't bad, although Woody doesn't have Castillo's track record. 

Again, I can see both ways on this. 

I don't have any statistics, but feels like ace level pitchers tend to fair better into their 30s. Seems like a lot of guys are still elite at 34-35. Of course, you could always end up like Jake Arrieta. But the following is a list of pretty old dudes throwing at an elite level right now. All are 34+

Kershaw

Scherzer

Verlander

Darvish

Wainwright

[Brock Beauchamp]

I thought the Mariners got a good deal on Castillo so I'd be pretty happy if the Brewers could do the same with Woodruff.

[UpandIn]

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I thought the Mariners got a good deal on Castillo so I'd be pretty happy if the Brewers could do the same with Woodruff.

I think they got a very good deal on Castillo. I feel like this deal would be a no brainer for either Woodruff or Burnes...and I don't get the trepidation. There's always risk with pitchers, but these are the two best pitchers we've developed since...Teddy Higura? 

It'd be nice to be able to keep one of them(ESPECIALLY with all the position players we have coming up who will or would be on relatively cheap deals through the next ~5-6 years).

[NBBrewFan]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers offered a Castillo-like extension/contract to Woodruff soon with the intention of using that move to offset trading Burnes to the highest bidder.  Burnes is likely going to cost more than the Brewers can afford and has a higher trade value. Those moves will coincide with Frelick and Turang as intended starters for 2023 and passing on Wong's option. Depending on the Haul they get for Burnes I wouldn't be surprised if they try to extend Adames (in the 4 year range and maybe an option) to buy out 2 FA years.  If they use Ashby as a starter in 2023 that gives them 3 of their 5 SP with long-term deals so Gasser replaces one of Houser/Lauer and a Burnes trade chip replaces the other over the next several years.  

If they can't get Woodruff to extend at Castillo-like money I think they will definitely try to extend Adames.

[jerichoholicninja]

Seems like Castillo left some money on the table for whatever reason. I don't know if the contract is a comp for anything.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

I don't get the trepidation.

Mainly that every pitcher is always a risk for Tommy John or some other arm injury, and every player on the wrong side of 30 is always a risk of "hitting the cliff" and being a shadow of their former self.

We have a group of MLB ready prospects, and more that are a little further off. That should mean that we'll have a number of guys playing for league minimum in the coming years, so we could have room to sign another bigger contract. That's even more likely if we trade off some of the arby guys for more prospects. 

Others have mentioned this, but if the team decides they have the extra funds, it will probably be a choice between extending Woodruff or extending Adames. Neither would be easily replaced, but it's probably easier these days to find a good shortstop than it is to find an Ace pitcher. On the other hand, signing Woodruff would have more risk than signing Adames. 

Ideally, they could get Woodruff to sign a four-year deal, getting two extra years of service, but not taking the risk of signing a pitcher into his mid-30's. 

[nate82]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I think they got a very good deal on Castillo. I feel like this deal would be a no brainer for either Woodruff or Burnes...and I don't get the trepidation. There's always risk with pitchers, but these are the two best pitchers we've developed since...Teddy Higura? 

It'd be nice to be able to keep one of them(ESPECIALLY with all the position players we have coming up who will or would be on relatively cheap deals through the next ~5-6 years).

Why would Burnes sign this deal?  It would make no sense at all for Burnes to sign this deal when DeGrom signed a 5-year $137m deal.  That is the market for Burnes not Castillo.  

[Jopal78]

A team can't be Rays-lite, or Guardians-lite when signing aging players to contract extensions.

Woodruff represents two or three minor leaguers desperately needed to keep the pipeline of cost controlled talent continuously flowing to Milwaukee. The Brewers future is brightest trading him at some point before the expiration of his team control.

Look no further than the players the Guardians received when they ultimately traded off their pennant winning pitchers of '16 (Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger): Emmanuel Clase, Josh Naylor, Amed Rosario, Andres Giminiez, Owen Miller,  Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges. Those players are all regulars on a Division winning team,  not to mention the other useful players they acquired in those same deals like: Franmil Reyes, and Yasiel Puig et al. 

Woodruff as a trade chip is  worth more to the Brewers than the 28-32 starts a year he would make as a well paid, pitcher with a lengthy contract extension.  

[nate82]

20 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

A team can't be Rays-lite, or Guardians-lite when signing aging players to contract extensions.

Woodruff represents two or three minor leaguers desperately needed to keep the pipeline of cost controlled talent continuously flowing to Milwaukee. The Brewers future is brightest trading him at some point before the expiration of his team control.

Look no further than the players the Guardians received when they ultimately traded off their pennant winning pitchers of '16 (Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger): Emmanuel Clase, Josh Naylor, Amed Rosario, Andres Giminiez, Owen Miller,  Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges. Those players are all regulars on a Division winning team,  not to mention the other useful players they acquired in those same deals like: Franmil Reyes, and Yasiel Puig et al. 

Woodruff as a trade chip is  worth more to the Brewers than the 28-32 starts a year he would make as a well paid, pitcher with a lengthy contract extension.  

If the Brewers wouldn't have Yelich on the books already I think it would be fine to sign Woodruff to a deal like this.  With Yelich on the team already that is a lot of the payroll going to two players.

[NBBrewFan]

22 minutes ago, nate82 said:

If the Brewers wouldn't have Yelich on the books already I think it would be fine to sign Woodruff to a deal like this.  With Yelich on the team already that is a lot of the payroll going to two players.

The issue is the next 2 years when they will still have a lot of players that are in Arby2/3 that will be getting a lot in arbitration.  An extension of Woodruff or Adames could be backloaded with the big numbers starting in 3 years when the Brewers will likely have 5 or 6 positional players on league minimum, 2 starting pitchers with team friendly deals and 2-3 with league minimum salaries.  They have the flexibility, it's whether they should go that route.  I think if they decide to trade one of Burnes/Woodruff and don't extend Adames then they should trade both Burnes and Woodruff.  Take a year to step back then have the gains from trading both entering the starting lineup/rotation in 2024 to augment most of the current prospects coming up.  They may not be a playoff team in 2024, but they would have a very talented young team that could be competitive in 2025 and better than anything they've had in the last 3-4 years.

[owbc]

 

4 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

Seems like Castillo left some money on the table for whatever reason. I don't know if the contract is a comp for anything.

The Mariners were smart to get the papers ready quickly after bringing Castillo over from Cincinnati. It's a big change to go from a team that is tanking to a team that is just entering a competitive window. Castillo just noted in his press conference that he saw the clubhouse chemistry and "had to be a part of it". 

The Brewers obviously don't have the money to throw around that the Mariners do and their competitive situation is different. The clubhouse situation is also different. My instinct would be to wait and consider a deadline trade of Woodruff in 2023. 

 

[bjkrautk]

...am I the only one who worries about giving a 5+ year extension to a pitcher who missed starts this season due to a lack of feeling in his pitching fingers?

I've been following Brewers baseball long enough to have learned the phrase Vestibular Neuritis, and how it was unlikely to happen again to one player (before it happened the second time).  Likewise, it's relatively common for a pitcher to go through a "dead arm" period when stretching out their workload in spring.  I do not recall a player losing feeling in his pitching hand.  Is the "injury" at all tied to his throwing motion, and should the team expect he's going to need to be shut down periodically over the rest of his career?  Is it going to happen more often as he ages?

I'm worried the medical opinions necessarily temper the business decisions on any future contract.

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, bjkrautk said:

...am I the only one who worries about giving a 5+ year extension to a pitcher who missed starts this season due to a lack of feeling in his pitching fingers?

I've been following Brewers baseball long enough to have learned the phrase Vestibular Neuritis, and how it was unlikely to happen again to one player (before it happened the second time).  Likewise, it's relatively common for a pitcher to go through a "dead arm" period when stretching out their workload in spring.  I do not recall a player losing feeling in his pitching hand.  Is the "injury" at all tied to his throwing motion, and should the team expect he's going to need to be shut down periodically over the rest of his career?  Is it going to happen more often as he ages?

I'm worried the medical opinions necessarily temper the business decisions on any future contract.

It was a flareup of Raynaud's Syndrome. It has nothing to do with his pitching mechanics, and it's something that can be managed. Glavine was diagnosed with it in 1990 and pitched until 2008.

[MrTPlush]

I think the Brewers can afford to sign Woodruff or Adames from a prospect standpoint (by losing out on the players they would get in return). Just trade the other two with a year remaining on their deal or more. 

That being said, I would instantly start a mini rebuild and load the offense up with all our prospects that are ready so they can hopefully start being a solid force come 2024-2025. You want the team strong as that big extension kicks in, not scuffling through a rebuild of sorts.

The minor leagues are a pretty good wasteland of pitching for us right now. If we lose both Burnes and Woodruff, what are you going to do? Go sign a Matt Garza to fill out your rotation with a reliable arm? If you can get Woodruff for near $20mil, hardly that much more money. Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby should be a real nice trio to lead a rotation for years. Could take a chance our offensive prospects can make an impact. And again...you could still score big on Williams/Burnes/Adames. 

I just don't like the thought of extending Adames. Offense does not look to be a weakness going forward with all the offensive prospects. He is elite for his position, yes. However, from a lineup standpoint he isn't an elite impact bat. Fangraphs has Kolten Wong over him (both right around #60 in MLB). If Adames defense declines, he really isn't worth some big massive deal.

Stearns has quite an endless amount of ways he could go about the next 2 years. What he does with all these guys approaching free agency will be pretty defining 10 years from now.

[wntrtxn21]

17 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I think the Brewers can afford to sign Woodruff or Adames from a prospect standpoint (by losing out on the players they would get in return). Just trade the other two with a year remaining on their deal or more. 

That being said, I would instantly start a mini rebuild and load the offense up with all our prospects that are ready so they can hopefully start being a solid force come 2024-2025. You want the team strong as that big extension kicks in, not scuffling through a rebuild of sorts.

The minor leagues are a pretty good wasteland of pitching for us right now. If we lose both Burnes and Woodruff, what are you going to do? Go sign a Matt Garza to fill out your rotation with a reliable arm? If you can get Woodruff for near $20mil, hardly that much more money. Woodruff/Peralta/Ashby should be a real nice trio to lead a rotation for years. Could take a chance our offensive prospects can make an impact. And again...you could still score big on Williams/Burnes/Adames. 

I just don't like the thought of extending Adames. Offense does not look to be a weakness going forward with all the offensive prospects. He is elite for his position, yes. However, from a lineup standpoint he isn't an elite impact bat. Fangraphs has Kolten Wong over him (both right around #60 in MLB). If Adames defense declines, he really isn't worth some big massive deal.

Stearns has quite an endless amount of ways he could go about the next 2 years. What he does with all these guys approaching free agency will be pretty defining 10 years from now.

Depending on trading Burnes for a haul, I believe Stearns can afford both Woodruff and Adames.  Prospects have proved nothing and until Stearns fixes 3B-C, the offense remains highly questionable. That's why they can't afford to lose Adames.  The Fangraphs top players list I saw had Adames as a top 25 (#23) and Wong at #82.  I believe Adames is an elite bat and a very good defensive SS.  To me,  31+ HRs, about 100 RBIs, and 4.7 WAR is elite. 

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, monty57 said:

Mainly that every pitcher is always a risk for Tommy John or some other arm injury, and every player on the wrong side of 30 is always a risk of "hitting the cliff" and being a shadow of their former self.

Ok, I get that there are injury risks...but those are inevitable in all professional sports. Feels like Brewers fans are a bit snake bitten by Yelich...and I guess to a lesser degree by Braun(though the 2nd extension was always a little...well, stupid). You'd better be sure you can develop other pitchers into aces if you'd be willing to let both go without offering deals...IMO and without trying to reignite the Burnes thread.

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

Why would Burnes sign this deal?  It would make no sense at all for Burnes to sign this deal when DeGrom signed a 5-year $137m deal.  That is the market for Burnes not Castillo.  

I meant from the Brewers end and sure...deGrom is a better comp for Burnes. Also a better pitcher with a much stronger history at the time of extension.

5 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

A team can't be Rays-lite, or Guardians-lite when signing aging players to contract extensions.

Yeah, I don't agree with that. You can absolutely be the "Rays-lite" and we've been pretty much just that. The Rays draw about 9 fans a game and they're generally from the opposing teams.

We carry a payroll about 40-80M higher than the Rays or the Guardians. The Guardians for SOME strange reason didn't flip their 3B who everyone was absolutely certain they'd trade.

Also, who said we have to follow either teams  philosophy exactly to a T? 

Finally...every player is aging. There are no Benjamin Buttons in professional baseball. 5 years for pitchers the Brewers have been EXTREMELY careful about not abusing and overworking isn't quite like locking up Verlander for a 5 year deal(Which...honestly, I would bet would also work out just fine in that particular situation). 

[monty57]

Let's say Burnes is out of the question for an extension, but we could afford one of Woodruff or Adames. All else being equal, who would everyone choose to extend between those two?

I think I'd go with Woodruff. With the pitching we have in the organization, having him as an "ace of staff" should help maintain our pitching as a strength, even as some of the other guys (Lauer, Houser, etc.) are traded or leave for free agency over the next few years.

Meanwhile, most of our MLB ready prospects are position players. As they come up and help out offensively and defensively, we can move Turang to SS and still maintain a good "position player group." Even if Turang doesn't work out, I think it should be easier to find a SS than it would be to go out and sign another #1 pitcher.

[MrTPlush]

12 hours ago, wntrtxn21 said:

Depending on trading Burnes for a haul, I believe Stearns can afford both Woodruff and Adames.  Prospects have proved nothing and until Stearns fixes 3B-C, the offense remains highly questionable. That's why they can't afford to lose Adames.  The Fangraphs top players list I saw had Adames as a top 25 (#23) and Wong at #82.  I believe Adames is an elite bat and a very good defensive SS.  To me,  31+ HRs, about 100 RBIs, and 4.7 WAR is elite. 

They can't sign both, that is just out of the question. You would be pushing $70mil or so committed to 3 guys. 

You would be right the prospects have proved nothing, but they are the future and our success pretty much depends on those guys. If they fail no amount of keeping Woodruff/Adames will even matter. This is no different than years ago when our future success was hinging on the likes of Peralta/Woodruff/Burnes to break out and stay that way. So yah, the prospects may all flop...but at that point nothing will matter much as we will be in a full blown rebuild.

Adames is an elite player, I am not debating that. However, offensively, he is not elite purely just looking at his offensive stats. Adames is at risk of finishing the season with an OBP under .300. He just isn't a massive force in the lineup. It is even more notable when you consider his position. If his defense declines or he switches positions...he just becomes that much less valuable. We just watched Wong's defense go into a dumpster at 30-31. No one really wants Wong for one year at under $10mil...then we should have no business signing Adames to $100mil+ that will largely cover the years we just had Wong at. 

We only have 5 pitching prospects in our Top 30 from MLB.com. Two at AAA that are back of the rotation type guys, one is a bullpen flamethrower, and the other two are at #19 and #20 in A+ ball. Houser/Lauer are getting expensive and only have two years of control remaining. We simply don't have the reinforcements in the minors to fill all those rotational spots. So you would have to go spend Chacin/Garza type money to hopefully go find a #3 starter to compliment Peralta/Ashby. If you think about it, if we have to go the FA route, those guys are going to be just as old as Woodruff.

[Outlander]

Would certainly choose Adames over Woodruff, age 29 vs 32. Have discussed Woodruff/Burnes but not Lauer. If say he signed a 4 year contract this off season it would cover two free agent years and take him through 31. Prefer Lauer extension over Woodruff as well. Peralta/Ashby/Lauer/Gasser is okay and should get a decent SP prospect or two when they trade Burnes/Woodruff. Small could still be an okay 4/5 as well.