Wisconsin @ Ohio State 9/24

[owbc]

I decided I would turn this on if it was close at halftime. 
 

I did not turn it on. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The really good Badger teams used to be able to consistently hang with more talented OSU squads, and even beat them on occasion, because they were able to hold their own at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, but primarily with their Oline and controlling the flow of the game by pounding the ball and play action.  For all the accolades recent recruiting classes have had pertaining to offensive lineman, the Badger program is a shell of what it used to be in terms of developing them into good college players.  

When your opponent and biggest competition to win a conference title gets their pick of the 5 star recruits annually, you've got to be good at developing the unheralded 2 and 3 star recruits that get overlooked but have lots of room to improve - I feel like WI has gotten away from that and instead shifted to trying to bring in more 3-4 star recruits without realizing they still aren't nearly as talented as the players OSU or MI fights over, and they may not have as much room to improve as players once they set foot on campus.

This program just feels stale

[LouisEly]

The Badgers teams that used to hang with OSU ran a 4-3 defense.  Yes, guys like O'Brien Schofield were more of the size of an OLB, but that's still more like a 3-3 and not a 2-4.  (That, and while Schofield was ~240 lbs, Herbig is under 230 lbs.)

OSU up 45-14 with 9 minutes left in the 4th and still running their 1st team offense.  Klassy.

[homer]

21 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

The Badgers teams that used to hang with OSU ran a 4-3 defense.  Yes, guys like O'Brien Schofield were more of the size of an OLB, but that's still more like a 3-3 and not a 2-4. 

OSU up 45-14 with 9 minutes left in the 4th and still running their 1st team offense.  Klassy.

Somewhere along the line OSU totally separated from the rest of the B1G in a big way. I do t think UW had gotten a ton worse as much as OSU has gotten much better. Urban effect? 

[MrTPlush]

The Badgers can’t beat OSU because they simply don’t create the type of offense to give them fits and bother them. If all we can do is run the ball, they have the talent to stop it. Many teams will struggle against Wisconsin still, but not a team like OSU. When we have zero passing game no amount of defense and running the ball to limit possessions is going to find us on top in the end.

It’s hard enough to beat OSU…but if you basically have a one dimensional offense, good luck.

[LouisEly]

4 minutes ago, homer said:

Somewhere along the line OSU totally separated from the rest of the B1G in a big way. I do t think UW had gotten a ton worse as much as OSU has gotten much better. Urban effect? 

A little of the Urban effect, and a lot of appearing in the CFP the last few years.  The playoff gets a lot more publicity than the old bowl system.

That, and the sketchiest entrance "requirements" in the Big Ten (this side of Michigan State).  Watch the interview with Jaxon Smith-Njigba after the Rose Bowl - no way in hell he gets into UW.

[LouisEly]

5 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

The Badgers can’t beat OSU because they simply don’t create the type of offense to give them fits and bother them. If all we can do is run the ball, they have the talent to stop it. Many teams will struggle against Wisconsin still, but not a team like OSU. When we have zero passing game no amount of defense and running the ball to limit possessions is going to find us on top in the end.

It’s hard enough to beat OSU…but if you basically have a one dimensional offense, good luck.

When you're missing your two starting OTs (one of whom PFF had ranked as the 14th best OL in the country so far this year) and three of your top four WRs are redshirt freshmen (and your #5 WR was a CB last year), it's difficult to have a good passing attack.

I got the impression that Mertz was expecting Lewis to sit down in the zone/run a hook route and not run an out route on the INT.  We'll never know if it was the wrong route/read by Lewis but it sure looked that way.

[Jim French Stepstool]

The task now is to decipher how much of this was they simply have more talent (they do) & how much was we played poorly (we did). It was the first real test for a secondary that I thought had performed well up to today given their inexperience. Obviously they were overmatched against the best WR & QB group they'll see all year. The front seven had several plays where they were in position to hold a run to a 2-3 yard gain, and almost every time it went for 6 or seven. It was that one-sided. 

What makes it more exasperating besides the talent difference, is that is one damn well-coached team. You hardly ever see anyone out of position, or missing an assignment.

Braelon Allen was a warrior all night. I feel badly for Cundiff if his injury is as bad as I fear, that would be the second time for him.

I know it sounds like sour grapes after a loss, but LouisEly is correct re the discrepancy in admissions. Frankly I don't know why schools that are compelled to don't just out-and-out cheat regarding grades, recruiting, etc. The NCAA has proven both unable and uninterested in doing anything about it, and the cash cow has become much too big to short-circuit.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, PeaveyFury said:

Disagree. Hornibrook lacked arm strength and was inconsistent with accuracy in the short game. But, the staff managed him and the game well and they won a bunch of games with him at QB. Mertz just isn’t very good.

Hornibrook made defenses honor his ability to take off & run, almost to a fault. That opened up a lot of things for him that wouldn't have been there if he was a statue. He wasn't the greatest thrower, but didn't need to be.

This reminds me of a couple of plays tonite by Mertz that really ticked me off---taking off to run, then costing yourself 2-3 yards by ending the play with a slide into 3rd base. If you dive forward, you gain those extra yards, and there's no way in College Football 2022 anyone tries to hit him as he's diving forward since you'd be getting the helmet & risking ejection. Maybe (probably) he's told to slide feet-first, but it's just dumb.

[nate82]

54 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

This reminds me of a couple of plays tonite by Mertz that really ticked me off---taking off to run, then costing yourself 2-3 yards by ending the play with a slide into 3rd base. If you dive forward, you gain those extra yards, and there's no way in College Football 2022 anyone tries to hit him as he's diving forward since you'd be getting the helmet & risking ejection. Maybe (probably) he's told to slide feet-first, but it's just dumb.

Pretty sure it is taught for QB's to slide feet-first from just about every team.  There is a lot of injury risk to the shoulder and arm when diving head first.  I also think the runner is not protected if they dive head first meaning if they dive head first they can be called for head to head contact and risk ejection.  

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

When you're missing your two starting OTs (one of whom PFF had ranked as the 14th best OL in the country so far this year) and three of your top four WRs are redshirt freshmen (and your #5 WR was a CB last year), it's difficult to have a good passing attack.

I got the impression that Mertz was expecting Lewis to sit down in the zone/run a hook route and not run an out route on the INT.  We'll never know if it was the wrong route/read by Lewis but it sure looked that way.

Well...Mertz threw the out-route and then immediately threw his hands up like...he knew he'd made a mistake. That was just a bad throw.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

18 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Pretty sure it is taught for QB's to slide feet-first from just about every team.  There is a lot of injury risk to the shoulder and arm when diving head first.  I also think the runner is not protected if they dive head first meaning if they dive head first they can be called for head to head contact and risk ejection.  

I'm sure you're right that they're taught to do that. My point is, if he does dive forward there's little to no chance anyone will challenge him since you're still going down. A defender CAN then hit him: I just doubt he would (unless you're diving for the goal line).

I don't believe a QB doing that would ever be called for helmet-to-helmet, any more than a tailback that's falling forward. Not saying he should even look for contact, just fall forward. You're still going down; you're just not giving up the 2-3 yards. 

[UpandIn]

3 hours ago, LouisEly said:

The Badgers teams that used to hang with OSU ran a 4-3 defense.  Yes, guys like O'Brien Schofield were more of the size of an OLB, but that's still more like a 3-3 and not a 2-4.  (That, and while Schofield was ~240 lbs, Herbig is under 230 lbs.)

OSU up 45-14 with 9 minutes left in the 4th and still running their 1st team offense.  Klassy.

The defensive scheme? What do you think a 4-3 does that this 3-4 doesn't?

ESPECIALLY given the talent the Badgers are able bring in at LBer. Guys like Chenel, Herbig, guys who can rush the QB or play the run. 

The Badgers defensive scheme is definitely NOT the problem.

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

The really good Badger teams used to be able to consistently hang with more talented OSU squads, and even beat them on occasion, because they were able to hold their own at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, but primarily with their Oline and controlling the flow of the game by pounding the ball and play action.  For all the accolades recent recruiting classes have had pertaining to offensive lineman, the Badger program is a shell of what it used to be in terms of developing them into good college players.  

When your opponent and biggest competition to win a conference title gets their pick of the 5 star recruits annually, you've got to be good at developing the unheralded 2 and 3 star recruits that get overlooked but have lots of room to improve - I feel like WI has gotten away from that and instead shifted to trying to bring in more 3-4 star recruits without realizing they still aren't nearly as talented as the players OSU or MI fights over, and they may not have as much room to improve as players once they set foot on campus.

This program just feels stale

 

That's an interesting take...I don't know if that's the case, but I do know we haven't had the same type of overpowering OL play. Then having a very limited passing attack, that doesn't help. 

For example, I don't think bringing in a...Kyle Costigan over a Logan Brown(or Nelson, etc...) helps you, but getting the OL to play as one unit and see continual improvement, that's been lacking. And as good as a 5 star recruit is, they're still capable of consistent growth and the OL can play with continuity. 

This is a younger group, maybe Bostad will be able to get them to play as a unit, to play better, but I don't think recruiting lower rated recruits who you believe have more rom for improvement or who maybe hungier will help.

 

We just don't have the same in-state talent as OSU, we don't have NEARLY the out of state prescence, and OSU and Michigan, they just get MUCH better skill players. In the secondary, at WRer and at QB. The speed kills. 

The only area UW has remained consistent is their front 7 on D and they keep churning out RBs.

They DO feel stale, but they have also had a couple stretches like this in the past. Hopefully someone like Burkett will be able to come in and be the Badgers Stetson Bennett(or more likely Tyler Donovan) and we can get back to double digit win seasons. Hell, we could still pull one off this year. But we're clearly NOT closing the gap on OSU. Just the opposite. 

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

A little of the Urban effect, and a lot of appearing in the CFP the last few years.  The playoff gets a lot more publicity than the old bowl system.

That, and the sketchiest entrance "requirements" in the Big Ten (this side of Michigan State).  Watch the interview with Jaxon Smith-Njigba after the Rose Bowl - no way in hell he gets into UW.

I won't judge a kid on an interview, but the standards to get a player, even a really good FB recruit into UW and the standards at MOST every other B1G school are vastly different. NU has similar standards in their athletic department, but that's it.

And the CFB playoffs are a massive difference. Knowing you'll likely be playing in an explosive offense with a QB guru, it's a helluva lot easier to get studs at those skill positions to come.

 

But here again, Wisconsin doesn't produce an awful lot of those...

When they went 13-1 and lost a 6 point game with a chance to get into the CFPs, the Badgers recruiting classes seemed to see a pretty significant bump. The results...not as much. But still nothing like the top 5 classes OSU is getting.

ONE Marvin Harrison type WRer would be huge. OSU had at least 3 1st rounders on last years team at WRer and likely 4 with Harrison Jr, plus a QB that'll likely go in the top 5. 

We got Graham Mertz and hoped he'd change our outlook.

 

I think it's more likely this program is just one that's going fall in the 10-20 range most years, some softer schedules and some player development and they have a chance to be top 10, some down years and they'll lose 5 games. Maybe we shouldn't really expect more since...we actually DO prioritize academics over winning at all costs.

[UpandIn]

12 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'm sure you're right that they're taught to do that. My point is, if he does dive forward there's little to no chance anyone will challenge him since you're still going down. A defender CAN then hit him: I just doubt he would (unless you're diving for the goal line).

I don't believe a QB doing that would ever be called for helmet-to-helmet, any more than a tailback that's falling forward. Not saying he should even look for contact, just fall forward. You're still going down; you're just not giving up the 2-3 yards. 

No, they'll never call a QB diving forward for a helmet to helmet or targeting penalty, but he can still take a shot to the ribs. It's just not something you want your QB doing unless it's a big spot. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

26 minutes ago, UpandIn said:

 

For example, I don't think bringing in a...Kyle Costigan over a Logan Brown(or Nelson, etc...) helps you, but getting the OL to play as one unit and see continual improvement, that's been lacking. And as good as a 5 star recruit is, they're still capable of consistent growth and the OL can play with continuity. 

This is a younger group, maybe Bostad will be able to get them to play as a unit, to play better, but I don't think recruiting lower rated recruits who you believe have more rom for improvement or who maybe hungier will help.

 

 

They've brought in OL over the years that have been all over the spectrum, from "can't miss" to walkons like Tauscher & Jason Erdmann. I think the common thread is the coaching & "lunch pail" attitude when looking for success there. They were blessed when Bill Callahan came on board with Alvarez, & I have a high opinion of Bostad. The problem is he hasn't been the position coach for these guys for the last 2-3 years. I see Tippmann & Nelson, even Beach & feel there's more there than what they're showing. Hopefully there will be improvement week-to-week.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Not a huge college football fan but I think this is less about UW and more about the gap that has expanded in CFB over the last 8 years or so. 

CFB has a wealth distribution issue that has gotten noticeably worse in the very recent past. The Alabama, OSU, Clemson circuit has just widened the gap significantly to the point that they are essentially a separate league from the rest.

[MrTPlush]

Is there a talent gap, I mean definitely. But at some point one has to wonder why they are so poor at recruiting and developing a QB into something real. When was the last time a QB could lead them down the field with the passing game? I can’t remember the last time I watched Wisconsin down late and had any confidence the QB could make something happen.

Why can one of the saddest teams in football the last decade recruit a QB out of California and turn him into Lamar Jackson…but Wisconsin can’t seem to make any QB into a reliable passer if need be? Coan and Hornibrook were decent the am extent…but if you ever need one to make a play or drive the team down the field, you might as well change the channel.

Even with what feels like a lot of improvement over last year…Mertz still seems so flawed and lacking. Maybe by the end of the year he can kinda put it together, but it’s a bit shocking after all this time he still is as flawed as he is.

[yourout]

As ugly as this game was the worst is yet to come when the gophers wrap up the Big ten West and the axe in camp Randall at the end of the year.

[LouisEly]

9 hours ago, UpandIn said:

The defensive scheme? What do you think a 4-3 does that this 3-4 doesn't?

ESPECIALLY given the talent the Badgers are able bring in at LBer. Guys like Chenel, Herbig, guys who can rush the QB or play the run.

A 4-2 team has bigger players at DE than a 2-4 scheme and can better tie up the OL, preventing them from getting to the 2nd level and blocking the off-ball LBs.  Herbig is (listed at) 228 lbs - he can set the edge against some teams but not OSU; he just isn't the equivalent of a 4-3 DE.  The 4-3 teams the Badgers ran had DEs that were at least 255 lbs or more... and some of them featured a 6'5", 295lb DE. 

In the first half OSU's RBs had over 100 yards before contact.  That says that your DL scheme isn't working.

[UpandIn]

34 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

A 4-2 team has bigger players at DE than a 2-4 scheme and can better tie up the OL, preventing them from getting to the 2nd level and blocking the off-ball LBs.  Herbig is (listed at) 228 lbs - he can set the edge against some teams but not OSU; he just isn't the equivalent of a 4-3 DE.  The 4-3 teams the Badgers ran had DEs that were at least 255 lbs or more... and some of them featured a 6'5", 295lb DE. 

In the first half OSU's RBs had over 100 yards before contact.  That says that your DL scheme isn't working.

A 2-4 scheme? We run a 3-4, same as the Packers. That's 5 guys on the LOS. As always, 3-4, 4-3, it's up to your DTs to keep players off your LBers.  You're taking one game as an outlier. One game vs a supremely talented OSU team. 

The 3-4 was literally designed to stop the run...and you're cherry picking players. Last year the Badgers had Chenel who was 250, they've had Biegal and Watt who've had plenty of size. They've got one of the best defenses FBS since Aranda switched them to a 3-4....which gives you 5 guys at the point vs a 4-3

OSU was just...better. It's not because of our defensive scheme.

[adambr2]

Imagine if baseball let all of MLB, AAA, AA, and A ball play against each other. 

That's college football in a nutshell.  Great product.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

A 2-4 scheme? We run a 3-4, same as the Packers. That's 5 guys on the LOS. As always, 3-4, 4-3, it's up to your DTs to keep players off your LBers.  You're taking one game as an outlier. One game vs a supremely talented OSU team. 

The 3-4 was literally designed to stop the run...and you're cherry picking players. Last year the Badgers had Chenel who was 250, they've had Biegal and Watt who've had plenty of size. They've got one of the best defenses FBS since Aranda switched them to a 3-4....which gives you 5 guys at the point vs a 4-3

OSU was just...better. It's not because of our defensive scheme.

UW never had 3 DL on the field against OSU except for maybe one or two short yardage plays.

I'm specifically referring to the game yesterday against OSU where UW ran a 2-4-5 almost every single play.  Leonhard always runs a 2-4-5 against 3-WR sets.

[UpandIn]

8 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

UW never had 3 DL on the field against OSU except for maybe one or two short yardage plays.

I'm specifically referring to the game yesterday against OSU where UW ran a 2-4-5 almost every single play.  Leonhard always runs a 2-4-5 against 3-WR sets.

I think the bigger issue was the Badgers complete inability to match up on the backend and cover OSU...particularly without their top CB and one of their top safeties out. 

I'd also suspect if you played a 43 vs a 11 personnel, it'd have been an even quicker death than it already was. It was 28-0 before they really started gashing us with the rush. 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

Imagine if baseball let all of MLB, AAA, AA, and A ball play against each other. 

That's college football in a nutshell.  Great product.

Yeah...but it's self imposed restrictions. It'd be like not allowing Sal Frelick to play for you because he wasn't good enough at Math.

It's really not that big of a deal to me. It's really just a gap between Ohio State and then the top of the SEC and one other school that's on a run. USC, Clemson, Oregon...whoever it happens to be. There are like 5 schools a given year who are going to dog walk the Badgers ALMOST ever year. We get lucky, we have a year where we go 13-1 only barely lose to OSU and then win our Bowl game and we show up on "top 5 teams that should have made the CFPs" lists(I just saw that and found it amusing). 

Strict admission standards, lack of in-state talent...and for all the complaining about PC, I don't even know if he's a good coach or not because our QB/OL play hasn't given him time to show his creativity or lack thereof. 

So at least we're more like the Brewers in this scenario than the Carolina Mudcats. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

8 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Is there a talent gap, I mean definitely. But at some point one has to wonder why they are so poor at recruiting and developing a QB into something real. When was the last time a QB could lead them down the field with the passing game? I can’t remember the last time I watched Wisconsin down late and had any confidence the QB could make something happen.

Why can one of the saddest teams in football the last decade recruit a QB out of California and turn him into Lamar Jackson…but Wisconsin can’t seem to make any QB into a reliable passer if need be? Coan and Hornibrook were decent the am extent…but if you ever need one to make a play or drive the team down the field, you might as well change the channel.

Even with what feels like a lot of improvement over last year…Mertz still seems so flawed and lacking. Maybe by the end of the year he can kinda put it together, but it’s a bit shocking after all this time he still is as flawed as he is.

When Alvarez took over, his vision was clear: build a defense, control the ball via the run, build the wall around the state by securing front-seven & lineman types, and get the "arms & legs" (skill position players) largely from outside. The QBs they've brought in have in many cases been competent or slightly better. After the obvious choice of Russell Wilson, guys like Tolzien, Stocco, and yes even Bollinger & Jim Sorgi have had their moments in big games. Hell, Matt Schabert was instrumental in a comeback win vs OSU once. Still the lack of an "elite QB" recruit is a valid point. Schools get reputations. QB is largely a position of ego. I'm sure there were many who had no desire to come to UW & hand the ball off to Monte Ball or Ron Dayne or Melvin Gordon 40 times, as opposed to throwing it 55 times. It's easy for an opposing coach to negatively recruit something like that. To a lesser extent, the weather & not wanting to "play school" may enter into it. 

Why they don't better develop the ones they have, well, in many cases I think they've done OK there. Right now, with Mertz, it's looking a little more dicey. Bobby Engram is supposedly the guy in charge of that, but he's new. Maybe they miss Jon Budmayr more than anyone knows?