How much will the Brewers spend in 2023

[John Bonnes]

Here is the payroll for the Brewers over the last few years. Are we hearing whether Stearns anticipates giving it a modest bump, like most of MLB tends to do? Or should we expect to go backwards from the $131M that was set this season? Are we hearing anything?

Year    Opening Day 26-man
2022   $131,930,160 (19)
2021    $ 99,316,127 (19)
2020   $105,842,057 (22) (prorated)
2019    $122,530,400 (17)
2018    $ 90,964,571 (26)
2017    $ 63,061,300 (30)

[Playing Catch]

I've heard nothing, but I think it all comes down to which players they keep/trade. I would bet that the budget would be in the $130M-$140M ballpark, but that wouldn't mean that the money has to be spent to that limit. If they end up relying on the kids to use up roster spots, perhaps the total would be lower, with "the opportunity to add to payroll at the deadline."

[monty57]

I think they went over budget to add McCutchen this season. With the league-wide drop in ticket sales, and the Brewers hit harder than most, I think the ownership group is probably losing some money this season and will go into next year under the assumption that the ticket sales will be lower. Therefore, my guess it that the 2019 opening budget ($122M) will probably be the high-water mark for 2023 opening day payroll. I wouldn't be shocked if it's lower than that.

This is probably why Hader was traded. Saving the $15M or so they would have paid him should probably drop them to somewhere around $115M after arbitration raises. If they don't exercise Wong's option, that would save another $8M. Then, they have to decide if they're going to make some trades, which could save quite a bit. 

[NBBrewFan]

30 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I think the ownership group is probably losing some money this season

I don't think they have lost a dime, but their nice profit they get each year is down.

[UpandIn]

On 9/24/2022 at 1:25 PM, Playing Catch said:

I've heard nothing, but I think it all comes down to which players they keep/trade. I would bet that the budget would be in the $130M-$140M ballpark, but that wouldn't mean that the money has to be spent to that limit. If they end up relying on the kids to use up roster spots, perhaps the total would be lower, with "the opportunity to add to payroll at the deadline."

Yeah...I think they could extend to 150 next year. More money is coming in. But I'm looking around at where they'd add players that'd be reasonable...and I can't find it. And I think the prices for SPing is going to explode even more this off-season.

3B-Arenado and then Jace Peterson is pretty much the #1 real option. Arenado would be opting out of 5/144 and has already expressed a pretty clear desire to stay in STL. So...I think we can spend a little more. I don't think we can get ridiculous.
1B/DH-Jose Abreu makes a lot of sense and would be a guy I'd like...and the White Sox seem like they HAVE to make a move or they're going to have several guys who should be DH/1B playing regularly, but Abreu is kinda their cornerstone and still playing well. 
Josh Bell-MAYBE...depending on the deal. But .194/.313/.298 in the 2nd half. 

JD Martinez would be a McCutchen type signing and...meh, he's just not a big enough bat to restrict the roster like that at this point.

By the end of '23 or early into '24, they could have pre-arbitration players at the top 4-5 OF spots.
2 of their starting IFers potentially in Turang and Black. 

Hopefully a few of those players are both worthy and interested in those early contract extensions, but unless we're talking about a trade...or internal extensions, it just doesn't make a lot of sense to spend on the players who appear to be available. 

I'm also good with that. IF they choose to bring Burnes and Woodruff back for one more year, I still think this team, with the influx of some young talent, some young athletes who can help produce runs in different way than HR or nothing.

So I'll guess 120 and hope for an in-season extension...

 

[NBBrewFan]

I think the drop in attendance will allow them to cut back on salary to maximize revenue/income.  Attanasio's investment in Norwich FC will definitely impact his management of cash-flow from the Brewers as he will need to invest in Norwich to maximize his capital appreciation.  They will attempt to extend either Adames or Woodruff to offset fan concerns when they go ahead and trade Burnes and/or Adames depending on whom they extend.  They will go into 2023 with Frelick/Mitchell/Renfroe as the OF, Adames, Turang, Urias and Tellez for the Infield and Caratini/Severino at catcher with Taylor and Brosseau as the backups for OF/Inf they may go after signing Peterson too if the overall money is right and the trades. Depending on the moves I see them going with a $110-115M payroll or less.

[BlightyBrew]

Sadly, I believe this is spot on.  I see a step back for next season.  Going to through out some unproven talent at the MLB level next season to see what sticks.  Hopefully looking for 2024 as an all in year before Woody & Burnes move on,

[MrTPlush]

I’d guess they will carry a similar payroll as they did this year. That may be costing them more than they would like due to attendance drops or whatever, but these high payroll should drop off in 2024/2025 and they should get some of those nice lower payroll for a chunk of years….especially if the flashy prospects flop and we have to go full rebuild.

[dlk9s]

$3.50

[rickh150]

I think we are kidding ourselves if we are expecting the Brewers to add payroll with down revenue.   So really, that means no Burnes or Woodruff extension, of course. Ashby and Peralta were signed long term, partly to cover our losses of those two.  Also, to the other way, it likely means trading away about half of the what, a dozen, arby eligible players this offseason or next.  So, yeah, I see our finances as pretty bleak right now.

What is huge is the report that will be released in the next few months that will discuss the needs of the franchise when it comes to total cost of repairs and upkeep to AmFam Field.  The team has to be looking to do what the Bucks and Packers have done inside (Lambeau- constant upgrades; Bucks- new stadium) and right outside of their stadiums (Packers- TitleTown; Bucks- Deer District) adding revenue streams; otherwise, we are in a world of hurt financially in the near future.  Expecting MA to pay for the rising salaries, repairs, upkeep, and new areas outside the ballpark with only his big bucks is not how this guy became rich or stays that way.  Cooperation with the city and county(s) is almost a must.

[rickh150]

On 9/26/2022 at 11:40 AM, NBBrewFan said:

I think the drop in attendance will allow them to cut back on salary to maximize revenue/income.  Attanasio's investment in Norwich FC will definitely impact his management of cash-flow from the Brewers as he will need to invest in Norwich to maximize his capital appreciation.  They will attempt to extend either Adames or Woodruff to offset fan concerns when they go ahead and trade Burnes and/or Adames depending on whom they extend.  They will go into 2023 with Frelick/Mitchell/Renfroe as the OF, Adames, Turang, Urias and Tellez for the Infield and Caratini/Severino at catcher with Taylor and Brosseau as the backups for OF/Inf they may go after signing Peterson too if the overall money is right and the trades. Depending on the moves I see them going with a $110-115M payroll or less.

Shocked if Woodruff signs a long term deal... We can't be paying Yelich and Woodruff long term big money.  I just can't see it happening.... spending about 40 to 45% of payroll on two guys, both which have likely peaked and on the downside of their careers.  Also, Teddy Higuera.

[jerichoholicninja]

Who really cares how much they spend as long as they make the team better. Seems like whenever Stearns spends any money of note the player comes no where near justifying the investment. Grandal may be the only exception.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

Shocked if Woodruff signs a long term deal... We can't be paying Yelich and Woodruff long term big money.  I just can't see it happening.... spending about 40 to 45% of payroll on two guys, both which have likely peaked and on the downside of their careers.  Also, Teddy Higuera.

I don't expect a Woodruff extension, but it would realistically be adding about two free agency years in '25 and '26, maybe a third in '27. It really wouldn't have any affect on what the team is able to spend in '23, as he'd be getting around what he'd be getting in arbitration.

Yelich's contract pays him through '28, so his $26M/year will still be there, but the only other guaranteed money by that point will be $3.45M for Ashby, and an option for $8M for Peralta with a $1.5M buyout. Urias, Tellez, Williams, Taylor, Brosseau, Hiura, Milner, Topa, Perdomo, and Reyes would all be in arby if they're still around. None of these guys will break the bank, and  some guys (like Williams) are almost certainly going to get traded prior to their final arby year. Heck, Peralta will probably get traded prior to his final year as well.

Any prospect who is a rookie in 2023 (guys like Turang, Mitchell, and Frelick will probably fit this bill) would be in their final year of pre-arby in '25, so obviously the rest of our prospects will be behind them. Depending on what we get back from our upcoming trades, a significant portion of the '25 and '26 rosters could be pre-arby or early in the arby years, and some will probably be on Ashby/Peralta-type contracts.

Depending on how the rookies play, we could be competitive next year with a payroll in the $100's - 110's. If guys like Burnes and Adames get traded over the next two off-seasons, adding a lot of cheap prospect talent to the mix, it is entirely possible that a Woodruff extension could fit into the team's payroll. Of course that would depend on how much he would demand.

But, that's looking further into the future than this thread's title suggests. For '23, I expect a substantially lowered opening day payroll than this year's $132M. With that, I expect that Attanasio and Stearns will still be trying to remain competitive.

[Robocaller]

$120-150M.  I like to be right.

 

[Jopal78]

With only 3 guaranteed salaries in 2023 (Yelich, Peralta, Ashby) and at least 31 million dollars in expiring contracts (Cain, Cutch and Narvaez);;  they can probably retain any permutation of arbitration eligible players they choose to, go dumpster diving once again for a couple of band aids, and still reduce their total payroll to the 120 million range. 

[Axman59]

If they reduce payroll for 2023 I'm done following this team. It's time for fans to stop putting up with this crap.

[UpandIn]

10 hours ago, rickh150 said:

I think we are kidding ourselves if we are expecting the Brewers to add payroll with down revenue.   So really, that means no Burnes or Woodruff extension, of course. Ashby and Peralta were signed long term, partly to cover our losses of those two.  Also, to the other way, it likely means trading away about half of the what, a dozen, arby eligible players this offseason or next.  So, yeah, I see our finances as pretty bleak right now.

What is huge is the report that will be released in the next few months that will discuss the needs of the franchise when it comes to total cost of repairs and upkeep to AmFam Field.  The team has to be looking to do what the Bucks and Packers have done inside (Lambeau- constant upgrades; Bucks- new stadium) and right outside of their stadiums (Packers- TitleTown; Bucks- Deer District) adding revenue streams; otherwise, we are in a world of hurt financially in the near future.  Expecting MA to pay for the rising salaries, repairs, upkeep, and new areas outside the ballpark with only his big bucks is not how this guy became rich or stays that way.  Cooperation with the city and county(s) is almost a must.

"With down revenue." 

I don't know what the revenue of the Brewers is exactly...and I know virtually nobody else does either. It's one of those very closely guarded secrets in Baseball...exactly how much do they pay out in revenue sharing. According to Forbes it was roughly 210M in 2018 in TV money and revenue sharing(with the team then keeping the 52% of the money that they don't put into the revenue sharing pot and divide up).

Is that number accurate? Not rhetorical, someone tell me if that's accurate? 

I DO know the MLBPA wanted 100 Million a less paid out per EACH TEAM in revenue sharing because so many teams were not trying to remain competitive. 

So...I don't know what the revenue is. If Attanasio is to be believed, they had room to add literally ANYONE this past year and we know TV revenue is going up next year. So...yeah, I don't know revenue is down. 

 

 

With regard to Higuera...guys, that was the 1980s. Ya know, back when you had to manually change the dial on a TV or get a "clicker." Casual racism was cool, pitch counts and inning limits no big deal? 

Higuera in his first 4 years in Milwaukee threw 212, 248, 261, and 227 IP. 
Burnes has thrown 504IP in his MLB career and Woodruff 600. 

Now...I wouldn't dare suggest you don't trade an asset(you have absolutely no choice but to do so). I'd just say...just MAYBE the reason isn't because a pitcher in the 80s who was really good and may or may not have been the age he said he was got paid a lot(at the time) and it didn't work out...

They babied Woodruff and Burnes(as one does with talented young arms, I've got no issue with how they've handled them). 

So...maybe we just let the Higuera thing die?
 

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Axman59 said:

If they reduce payroll for 2023 I'm done following this team. It's time for fans to stop putting up with this crap.

Eh...they could reduce payroll and be better. If I thought Attanasio was reigning in the payroll rather than Stearns just trying to leave himself room to operate, I'd probably stop paying for season tickets and things like that. But I don't believe that. 

Honestly, Attanasio looked like a disappointed fan in that interview he gave in the dugout with regard to the Hader trade...and I thought he sounded genuine when he said they could have added ANY players contract for the next year, 2, 3 years and fit it into the budget(namely in response to Soto's 17M dollar deal that will be ballooning as he goes through 2 more years).

My thing is...where are you spending it? If you signed an extension(which is strictly forbidden to root for and or want, but...hypothetically) it wouldn't constitute significant raises immediately. You're taking Cain, McCutchen and Wong off the payroll and replacing them(hopefully effectively) with Frelick, Mitchell, Turang...maybe Ruiz. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

Who would you sign while still being realistic?

I'd maybe look at Eovaldi or Syndergaard if the Brewers liked either for some particular reason like Andrew Heaney last year when it was rumored that teams thought he was a likely candidate to bounce back this year with a few small adjustments(and he did just that). 

Maybe there's some trade that makes sense...?

[nate82]

14 hours ago, dlk9s said:

$3.50

I aint givin you no tree fiddy loch ness monster!

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, UpandIn said:

Eh...they could reduce payroll and be better. If I thought Attanasio was reigning in the payroll rather than Stearns just trying to leave himself room to operate, I'd probably stop paying for season tickets and things like that. But I don't believe that. 

Honestly, Attanasio looked like a disappointed fan in that interview he gave in the dugout with regard to the Hader trade...and I thought he sounded genuine when he said they could have added ANY players contract for the next year, 2, 3 years and fit it into the budget(namely in response to Soto's 17M dollar deal that will be ballooning as he goes through 2 more years).

My thing is...where are you spending it? If you signed an extension(which is strictly forbidden to root for and or want, but...hypothetically) it wouldn't constitute significant raises immediately. You're taking Cain, McCutchen and Wong off the payroll and replacing them(hopefully effectively) with Frelick, Mitchell, Turang...maybe Ruiz. 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

Who would you sign while still being realistic?

I'd maybe look at Eovaldi or Syndergaard if the Brewers liked either for some particular reason like Andrew Heaney last year when it was rumored that teams thought he was a likely candidate to bounce back this year with a few small adjustments(and he did just that). 

Maybe there's some trade that makes sense...?

I've seen some suggest Abreu. Other than him I'm not sure what expensive FA would make sense for the Brewers.

[UpandIn]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I've seen some suggest Abreu. Other than him I'm not sure what expensive FA would make sense for the Brewers.

I've been beating the drum for Abreu, but as others have pointed out, despite the White Sox having too many DH/1B types, he's a staple in that clubhouse(and still raking). 

So if you can pull him away from Chicago? He would seemingly be a perfect fit. A RHed 1B who can still hit .300 and while he's hit lefties really well during his career, he's hit righties almost as well(and this year almost an identical OPS vs both). 

I'd guess you'd be looking at 3/45 for him, maybe as much as 2/35 with an option for a 3rd year at ~20 with a 5M buyout if you want to lure him away from the CHW? 

Josh Bell is the kinda poor mans version, but younger. Also has a reputation for being a guy who kinda crashes in the 2nd half(certainly what's happened this year) but if you go year by year, doesn't really track. Maybe it was just the one year he was on an MVP pace and he fell off. Other years he's had better 2nd half's than 1st. 

He's 30 though and hasn't really gotten that big deal yet. Also...not really the Brewers way to spend big on a guy who you can't really play anywhere but 1st/DH more than a year or two, but either one would make sense. 

A move like this would also have a ripple effect. I'd assume you'd still want to keep Tellez, but then the roster starts to get pretty crowded and it's tough to find a place to fit Frelick/Mitchell/Yelich/Renfroe in on top of Tellez, but you worry about that  later.

  

 

 

 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I've been beating the drum for Abreu, but as others have pointed out, despite the White Sox having too many DH/1B types, he's a staple in that clubhouse(and still raking). 

So if you can pull him away from Chicago? He would seemingly be a perfect fit. A RHed 1B who can still hit .300 and while he's hit lefties really well during his career, he's hit righties almost as well(and this year almost an identical OPS vs both). 

I'd guess you'd be looking at 3/45 for him, maybe as much as 2/35 with an option for a 3rd year at ~20 with a 5M buyout if you want to lure him away from the CHW? 

Josh Bell is the kinda poor mans version, but younger. Also has a reputation for being a guy who kinda crashes in the 2nd half(certainly what's happened this year) but if you go year by year, doesn't really track. Maybe it was just the one year he was on an MVP pace and he fell off. Other years he's had better 2nd half's than 1st. 

He's 30 though and hasn't really gotten that big deal yet. Also...not really the Brewers way to spend big on a guy who you can't really play anywhere but 1st/DH more than a year or two, but either one would make sense. 

A move like this would also have a ripple effect. I'd assume you'd still want to keep Tellez, but then the roster starts to get pretty crowded and it's tough to find a place to fit Frelick/Mitchell/Yelich/Renfroe in on top of Tellez, but you worry about that  later.

  

 

 

 

Abreu likely would mean Yelich starts the year if LF with Abreu and Rowdy playing 1B/DH. If the OF kids are knocking on the door for more playing time you can always trade Rowdy/Renfroe to open up spots at some point in the season. 

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I've seen some suggest Abreu. Other than him I'm not sure what expensive FA would make sense for the Brewers.

51 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Abreu likely would mean Yelich starts the year if LF with Abreu and Rowdy playing 1B/DH. If the OF kids are knocking on the door for more playing time you can always trade Rowdy/Renfroe to open up spots at some point in the season. 

Yeah, you could. I agree with Abreu. I brought him up a few months ago, I was just pointing out some of the other factors that the Brewers generally consider. They value versatility. 

I think IF they're going to run it back and just try to improve the roster a bit, then you can't always get a player who fits perfectly and can play 4 different positions. We've got that. 

Now, IF we trade one of our pitchers, another interesting target would be Kodai Senga, a FA coming over from Japan. He's a veteran, throws in the mid to upper 90s, has a pitch called the "Fork Ghost," but also a slider, change...

Projected contract I've seen has been in the 4/60 range and he's projected to be a #2/3...but how often do they say a guy is projected to be an ace?

I know we've been interested in Japanese players from time to time and we've never really come close. We offered Darvish over 100M after signing Cain, though he didn't seem interested at all in coming here. Could be a move we could make to mitigate the loss of a top of the rotation pitcher while still getting those prospects in return...AND it'd be nice if the Brewers could get a Japanese star. I'm sure Seattle or NYY/NYM, ChC, LAA/LAD, SFG, all more desirable places to play, BUT...could be an interesting option. Also, a lot of really proven pitchers on the market, a few who are likely going to make 40M a year(deGrom, Verlander) with plenty of second tier pitchers available, Rodon, Healey, Syndergaard and probably 20 other really established pitchers are FAs. So who knows, maybe we can slide in and get in on him early...if he fits the profile we're looking for with the spin rates and all that. 

End of the day though, I just think it's a short list compared to most years and I could see those FAs just not being interested in Milwaukee, particularly if we are trading a Burnes or Woodruff. So we'll see how it goes. If they're aggressive in trying to fortify this team(assuming they want to run in back and compete next year or do so with this same core) then I'm good. There's not a dollar amount I want them to spend. 

[phnxcrew]

On 9/28/2022 at 6:16 AM, dlk9s said:

$3.50

Disagree.    Everyone knows it’ll cost a buck o’ five

[Brock Beauchamp]

On 9/28/2022 at 2:05 AM, BlightyBrew said:

Sadly, I believe this is spot on.  I see a step back for next season.  Going to through out some unproven talent at the MLB level next season to see what sticks.  Hopefully looking for 2024 as an all in year before Woody & Burnes move on,

If the Brewers take a step back in payroll, they should fire sale the team. Now is the time to aggressively push the budget upward, not be cautious. There will be plenty of time to be cautious in a few years when the roster collapses and ownership slashes payroll to rebuild.