Best of luck to Keston Hiura next season...

[BrewersSuperCollector]

On 9/17/2022 at 9:53 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

Tough crowd that doesn't seem to remember the state of the Milwaukee Brewers during the turn of the century....Woe to Stearns and Counsell for bringing us 4 straight (5?) postseason appearances and by far the greatest run of success in our history. Oh, that's right I forgot, Stearns got "fleeced" in the Hader trade. Fire him immediately! 

 

I beg to differ. 1978-83 was way more fun. Watering down the playoffs with more teams doesn't make postseason appearances more impressive. 

[Brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, BrewersSuperCollector said:

I beg to differ. 1978-83 was way more fun. Watering down the playoffs with more teams doesn't make postseason appearances more impressive. 

Two division titles during this run, which is just as much as they accomplished in their entire history prior to Stearns' and Counsell's arrival and also makes the "watering down of the playoffs" argument irrelevant...

[BrewersSuperCollector]

20 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Two division titles during this run, which is just as much as they accomplished in their entire history prior to Stearns' and Counsell's arrival and also makes the "watering down of the playoffs" argument irrelevant...

Your comment was "by far the greatest run of success in our history."

Hell, one of the Counsell's post season appearances was a wild card with an under .500 record. 

The cupboard wasn't bare when Stearns/Counsell took over like it was when Dalton and especially when Melvin took over.

 

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Keston went 0-5 with 3 Ks yesterday. Not really a great way to prove to management that you deserve to play.

He isn't playing because he's ice cold right now.

[MrTPlush]

A) There is probably more to this story than one would know.

B) Before his banishment he was absolutely terrible. He entered September with an OPS of .851 and managed to tank it under .800 in barely a week. In those 8 games he struck out 13 times. 

Something I found interesting about Hiura. He may have 14 HRs on the year, but outside of that he has a pathetic 5 XBHs. That just isn't a very valuable set of tools and never has been....especially for a guy that can't field well. Keston Hiura is the kind of dude that is fun to watch on a sub. .500 team because he can kinda pad his stats against average pitchers and hit homers. However, on a competing team the reality of the player is much more noticeable. If your team is competing you want/expect to beat really good teams...well Keston Hiura and his semi-truck sized hole in his swing will struggle mightily when it matters.

To be honest, Keston Hiura is like Chris Carter. If you want a guy to go smash 40 HRs, he is your guy. However, not really all that valuable. I get the team has been a bit boring this year, but watching Hiura make history breaking the single season strikeout record probably won't help matters.

[Fear The Chorizo]

59 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Keston went 0-5 with 3 Ks yesterday. Not really a great way to prove to management that you deserve to play.

He isn't playing because he's ice cold right now.

It's easy to be ice cold "right now", when the statline you referenced is the only playing time Hiura has gotten in the last 10 days.  Prior to that he was still producing at a decent enough clip not to warrant being benched for a full calendar week to allow a guy producing offensively to the equivalent of a pitcher (McCutcheon) everyday at bats.

 

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

17 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

It's easy to be ice cold "right now", when the statline you referenced is the only playing time Hiura has gotten in the last 10 games.  Prior to that he was still producing at a decent enough clip not to warrant being benched for a full calendar week to allow a guy producing offensively to the equivalent of a pitcher (McCutcheon) everyday at bats.

 

 

He played regularly for the first week and a half of September. His September OPS is .402. He has 34 ABs this month with 5 hits, no HRs and 16 Ks. I mean, I want the guy to hit as much as anyone, but that type of performance gets most guys a ticket to the bench.

In contrast, McCutchen has 47 ABs this month, with 9 hits, 3 HRs and 17 Ks. Not great numbers by any means, but I can see why he's playing over Keston right now.

[MrTPlush]

36 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

It's easy to be ice cold "right now", when the statline you referenced is the only playing time Hiura has gotten in the last 10 games.  Prior to that he was still producing at a decent enough clip not to warrant being benched for a full calendar week to allow a guy producing offensively to the equivalent of a pitcher (McCutcheon) everyday at bats.

 

 

To start September:

Keston Hiura - 5/29, 2 R, 0 RBI, 13 K, 1 BB

Andrew McCutchen - 6/24, 3 R, 4 RBI, 7 K, 2 BB

 

Who has the pitcher stateline?

[monty57]

I don't know what Hiura's future holds. I don't see a reason to bring him back since they don't play him so they should get someone that will play. I hope they find a GM who likes what they see in Hiura and we'll get something for him.

I think we should all agree that McCutchen getting 532 PAs (4th most on the team), with 458 of these PAs as the #1-4 hitter in the order has hurt the team. Whatever else happens this offseason, not having McCutchen cemented into the lineup every day will help next year's team.

I'm fine with them keeping Hiura. I think he and Tellez would make a decent 1B/DH combo. If they won't do that, it would be great to find another 1B, as Tellez would be an above-average DH. I also think that giving a lot of the DH duty to Yelich and Renfroe while allowing the young (better defensive) OFs could be an option. 

Just please, please let McCutchen walk. I understand why they signed him, but there is absolutely no reason he should have been given nearly as many PAs as he has, and putting him in key spots in the order (100 PAs at leadoff, 82 at #3, 268 at cleanup) nearly every day is a big part of the reason we are 2 games out of the playoffs instead of sitting in a Wild Card spot right now. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

11 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

To start September:

Keston Hiura - 5/29, 2 R, 0 RBI, 13 K, 1 BB

Andrew McCutchen - 6/24, 3 R, 4 RBI, 7 K, 2 BB

 

Who has the pitcher stateline?

Why are you arbitrarily using September only games for this comparison?  Oh yeah, because it fits your argument better.  That also doesn't excuse the fact that since around 9/9, McCutcheon has gotten about 25 plate appearances at a similarly poor rate of production while Hiura got just the 5 in yesterday's game.  McCutcheon's rate of production at this incredibly low level goes much further back in to August - he's hitting under 0.200 for all of August and September over ~150 plate appearances with a sub 0.650 OPS.  Hiura's September has been bad, but then again he's not in the lineup consistently enough to hit his way out of it.  There's plenty of both good and bad to point to over handful of game stretches in Hiura's statline depending what people want to see - my argument has long been that he's not given enough ABs for his peaks and valleys to accumulate a season's worth of production that winds up being a 30+HR season and OPS in the 0.775-0.825 range at the #6 or 7 spot in the order...pretty much what Wily Adames is doing this year from the 2 hole.

I'm not saying Hiura is Aaron Judge - but he's a better everyday option than McCutcheon as this team's DH with the occasional exception being against a lefthanded starter, and frankly that's been the case throughout this season.  Hiura got screwed by the roster numbers game early in the season getting sent down to AAA because he was the guy who still had an option remaining, and that decision was made while McCutcheon was one of the few hitters doing anything at the plate.  Despite the high K rate, he's too impactful a bat to leave on the bench a week at a time when they're facing a steady diet of RHP.

 

 

[MrTPlush]

3 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Why are you arbitrarily using September only games for this comparison?  Oh yeah, because it fits your argument better. 

"It's easy to be ice cold "right now", when the statline you referenced is the only playing time Hiura has gotten in the last 10 days.  Prior to that he was still producing at a decent enough clip not to warrant being benched for a full calendar week to allow a guy producing offensively to the equivalent of a pitcher (McCutcheon) everyday at bats."

I am simply responding to you saying he was producing before being benched and you inferring McCutchen was worse. Before being benched Hiura was batting like a pitcher and definitely worse than McCutchen. When you strike out 50% of the time you just aren't very reliable and I am sure the Brewers don't really care for it right now. Still, him not even seeing an appearance for days on end is a bit strange...at best. 

Now what McCutchen has done the last 10 days is a different story and conversation. I mean one could argue neither really deserves the everyday ABs.

[Jopal78]

9 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I don't know what Hiura's future holds. I don't see a reason to bring him back since they don't play him so they should get someone that will play. I hope they find a GM who likes what they see in Hiura and we'll get something for him.

I think we should all agree that McCutchen getting 532 PAs (4th most on the team), with 458 of these PAs as the #1-4 hitter in the order has hurt the team. Whatever else happens this offseason, not having McCutchen cemented into the lineup every day will help next year's team.

I'm fine with them keeping Hiura. I think he and Tellez would make a decent 1B/DH combo. If they won't do that, it would be great to find another 1B, as Tellez would be an above-average DH. I also think that giving a lot of the DH duty to Yelich and Renfroe while allowing the young (better defensive) OFs could be an option. 

Just please, please let McCutchen walk. I understand why they signed him, but there is absolutely no reason he should have been given nearly as many PAs as he has, and putting him in key spots in the order (100 PAs at leadoff, 82 at #3, 268 at cleanup) nearly every day is a big part of the reason we are 2 games out of the playoffs instead of sitting in a Wild Card spot right now. 

I'm not going to defend McCutchen's performance, he's been terrible. However, don't lose sight of the fact he's getting paid 8.5 million dollars. In today's baseball economy that's towards the low end for an everyday veteran free agent. He was a bargain bin free agent signing (coming off a stretch in Philadelphia where he was productive when healthy): sometimes they work out, sometimes they come up snake eyes.  

At least they're not hamstrung by other poplular names: Avi Garcia is getting paid 12 million dollars in Miami, and has another 29 million guaranteed. He's hitting .230/.267/.316. Nick Castellanos is at .265/.305/.397, was paid 20 million this year and is owed another 80 million.

 

 

[RedStickBrew]

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

Now what McCutchen has done the last 10 days is a different story and conversation. I mean one could argue neither really deserves the everyday ABs.

This is the most frustrating part to me.  It's hard to argue either one of these guys deserves to DH regularly.  My fear is that McCutchen is getting AB's just to get him to the 1000 career RBI mark because I can't for the life of me understand why he continues to be in the line up when they are in the playoff hunt.  In my view the best bench bat should be DH based on the pitching match up.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I am simply responding to you saying he was producing before being benched and you inferring McCutchen was worse. Before being benched Hiura was batting like a pitcher and definitely worse than McCutchen. 

If you just add the last week or so of ABs Hiura got at the end of August to his early September #'s (which wasn't really the stretch that forced CC to start playing him everyday in mid August), Hiura's #'s look good enough to justify sticking with his bat in the lineup despite his very poor start to September, and definitely not poor enough to bench him for an entire week.  The high K rate even with impactful offensive production is going to keep him lower in a good team's lineup...but he still needs to be in that lineup consistently.

That's just the hand Hiura has apparently been dealt with this roster and CC as the manager - have a weeklong slump that includes alot of K's, get sent back down to AAA or just rot on the bench so it's that much harder to get back into a groove at the plate with inconsistent playing time.  

[monty57]

56 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I'm not going to defend McCutchen's performance, he's been terrible. However, don't lose sight of the fact he's getting paid 8.5 million dollars. In today's baseball economy that's towards the low end for an everyday veteran free agent. He was a bargain bin free agent signing (coming off a stretch in Philadelphia where he was productive when healthy): sometimes they work out, sometimes they come up snake eyes.  

At least they're not hamstrung by other poplular names: Avi Garcia is getting paid 12 million dollars in Miami, and has another 29 million guaranteed. He's hitting .230/.267/.316. Nick Castellanos is at .265/.305/.397, was paid 20 million this year and is owed another 80 million.

 

 

Yeah, I understand why they signed him, but at the "$8M per WAR" rate, McCutchen with his 0.2 Fangraphs WAR is highly overpaid even at $8.5M.

Your point is valid. The Brewers need to be very cautious in the free agent market. At least McCutchen is only here for one year. They'll continue to do these type deals to fill in holes in the roster, and there's generally not too much risk to them.

I'm just perplexed why they felt he needed to be cemented into the #3/4 spot every day. One year / $8.5M guys should be secondary players, not guys you expect to be the center of the offense. As you mentioned, he was "bargain bin" and they treated him like they just signed a superstar.

[Hopper]

5 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Keston went 0-5 with 3 Ks yesterday. Not really a great way to prove to management that you deserve to play.

He isn't playing because he's ice cold right now.

and once again, the kid hasn't had an at bat for 9 days, and CC decides to give him another shot against Cole?  lol

Great way to boost the confidence of a struggling hitter. (BLUE-BLUE-BLUE)

 

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, monty57 said:

 

Just please, please let McCutchen walk. I understand why they signed him, but there is absolutely no reason he should have been given nearly as many PAs as he has, and putting him in key spots in the order (100 PAs at leadoff, 82 at #3, 268 at cleanup) nearly every day is a big part of the reason we are 2 games out of the playoffs instead of sitting in a Wild Card spot right now. 

The reason is Hiura was the main alternative. Had Urias been better this year that could've forced your hand because then you have Urias/Peterson/Wong for two spots, but DHing one of them messes with the in-game flexibility CC loves. Plus the # of games you had them all available at one time was limited this year anyway. Then Cain leaving the team put your 4th OFer in a semi-regular to regular role which put McCutchen in the OF more than they probably planned.

[dlk9s]

14 hours ago, BrewersSuperCollector said:

I beg to differ. 1978-83 was way more fun.

We should definitely reach all the way back to when most posters on this board were in college to make comparisons.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Oh, and whoever is the DH tonight vs Scherzer should scream bloody murder that Counsell is setting him up for failure.

[Jim French Stepstool]

5 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

We should definitely reach all the way back to when most posters on this board were in college to make comparisons.

I had more fun from '78 to '83. I don't know how much baseball had to do with it though.?

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, monty57 said:

Yeah, I understand why they signed him, but at the "$8M per WAR" rate, McCutchen with his 0.2 Fangraphs WAR is highly overpaid even at $8.5M.

Your point is valid. The Brewers need to be very cautious in the free agent market. At least McCutchen is only here for one year. They'll continue to do these type deals to fill in holes in the roster, and there's generally not too much risk to them.

I'm just perplexed why they felt he needed to be cemented into the #3/4 spot every day. One year / $8.5M guys should be secondary players, not guys you expect to be the center of the offense. As you mentioned, he was "bargain bin" and they treated him like they just signed a superstar.

I would guess McCutchen hitting 4th is more of a byproduct of the manager preferring to order his lineup "left, right ,left right" (Yelich, Adames, Tellez, McCutchen). His numbers as the clean up batter are actually not bad: .285/.351/.434. 

 

[jerichoholicninja]

32 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

We should definitely reach all the way back to when most posters on this board were in college to make comparisons.

College? I think a large majority of us weren't even born yet.

[monty57]

16 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I would guess McCutchen hitting 4th is more of a byproduct of the manager preferring to order his lineup "left, right ,left right" (Yelich, Adames, Tellez, McCutchen). His numbers as the clean up batter are actually not bad: .285/.351/.434. 

 

I think you're right. It's probably also why Adames was put in the 2-hole even though his OBP was around .300 all year and he's probably better suited a little further down the lineup.

That said, if Yelich is leadoff with Adames 2, then go with LH Tellez (who's numbers are almost identical to McCutchen except with 2x the HR) at three, and Renfroe at cleanup, 

Even with keeping Hiura out of the conversation, giving an extra 40-60 PAs to Renfroe (.250 / .312 / .483 / .795, wRC+ 119) and taking them away from McCutchen (.238 / .308 / .391 / .699 wRC+ 97) would have made a lot of sense.

If we didn't have to go LRLRL, then we could've put a platoon of Wong (.277 / .357 / .481 / .838 wRC+ 133 vs RHP) and Brosseau (.286 / .355 / .440 / .795 wRC+ 125 vs LHP) in the 2-hole. That .350s OBP following Yelich, in front of the power hitting Adames/Tellez/Renfroe could have led to a lot more runs.

Combine the two, and I think our offense would have been a little better, probably enough to make up the two game deficit we have in the Wild Card race. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

I think you're right. It's probably also why Adames was put in the 2-hole even though his OBP was around .300 all year and he's probably better suited a little further down the lineup.

That said, if Yelich is leadoff with Adames 2, then go with LH Tellez (who's numbers are almost identical to McCutchen except with 2x the HR) at three, and Renfroe at cleanup, 

Even with keeping Hiura out of the conversation, giving an extra 40-60 PAs to Renfroe (.250 / .312 / .483 / .795, wRC+ 119) and taking them away from McCutchen (.238 / .308 / .391 / .699 wRC+ 97) would have made a lot of sense.

If we didn't have to go LRLRL, then we could've put a platoon of Wong (.277 / .357 / .481 / .838 wRC+ 133 vs RHP) and Brosseau (.286 / .355 / .440 / .795 wRC+ 125 vs LHP) in the 2-hole. That .350s OBP following Yelich, in front of the power hitting Adames/Tellez/Renfroe could have led to a lot more runs.

Combine the two, and I think our offense would have been a little better, probably enough to make up the two game deficit we have in the Wild Card race. 

Good stuff here. I've felt all along that whichever of Cutch/Hiura is in the lineup, with this roster they should be hitting sixth-ish.

This leads back again to Cain. His lousy performance then absence took away someone who could've theoretically given you one more year being adequate in the 1-2 hole. Then he was replaced by Taylor who can hit for power but with the high K's & virtually no walks. Throw in Narvaez who IIRC was a middle-of-the-order guy last year & is a shell of that now, and putting an order together has been a real challenge.

Besides the LRLR thing, I have a feeling CC likes the extra whatever it would be---30-40 AB's a season?---you get by hitting Adames a little higher, not to mention him getting the potential late AB before a Wong or Brosseau would. That ain't me talkin' as I'm big on batting order construction. Just thinking that CC may view it that way.

[Robocaller]

7 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Besides the LRLR thing, I have a feeling CC likes the extra whatever it would be---30-40 AB's a season?---you get by hitting Adames a little higher, not to mention him getting the potential late AB before a Wong or Brosseau would. 

Half that many extra ABs moving up one spot in the order.

Or maybe CC realized Adames was getting killed by BABIP, and figured that would even out.