Article: The Brewers' Catching is Quietly Faltering

[Kyle Ginsbach]

Though there have been numerous areas of weakness in the Brewers' recent performance, the Crew's catchers have yet to shoulder the blame. The truth is, the backstops quality of play needs to change if the Brewers are to find success in September. 

 

 

The catching tandem of Omar Narváez and Victor Caratini was an impromptu duo thrown together at the beginning of the season out of sheer necessity, and very little else. Both performed admirably in the first half of the season, shouldering an injured pitching staff and bearing more offensive responsibility than most would have imagined. However, since the All-Star break, the production from the backstops has been flipped on its head.

The expectation going into the 2022 season was that Narváez would do the bulk of the catching for the Brewers. However, Narváez has had two separate bouts on the injured list during the 2022 campaign, and others have had to take turns behind the plate. Narváez, an All-Star in 2021, has disappointed so far in 2022. Though still a fantastic defensive catcher, his measly slash line of .226/.314/.347 give him an OPS+ of just 88.  He has accumulated 1.2 fWAR, though it is easy to assume a large majority of this is due to defense. 

Oppositely, Caratini spent the first half the season as the savior the Brewers didn’t know they needed. He posted an OPS north of .800 in the first half, all while being above average in almost every defensive metric for catchers. But in the second half, Caratini has been dreadful. His WRC+ since the break has been a pitiful 41. With an OPS of just 469 post All-Star break, his season OPS has now dropped under .700, and his fWAR sits at 1.3. 

Interestingly enough, Caratini fading in the second half isn’t something out of the ordinary. Caratini has never posted a WRC+ over 100 in any given second half of the season, while Narváez has accomplished that feat as a member of the Brewers. That isn’t to say the Brewers catchers have been dead weight all season, in fact, as a unit, the Brewers catchers rank 13th in WRC+ and 9th in fWAR. In the second half though, those ranks are 27th and 26th respectively. 

Unfortunately, the tandem of Caratini and Narváez are as much to blame for the Brewers second half skid as anyone else. It’s not that both aren’t capable; they’ve both shown the ability to carry a team in the past. More than ever, the Brewers need to see improvement across the board, and they should look no further than their usually reliable backstops.

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[monty57]

Obviously, nothing's going to be done between now and the end of the year. Narvaez and Caratini are healthy, so we just hope they get hot. After the season, Narvaez is a free agent. Caratini has one year of arbitration remaining, and has a salary of $2,000,000 this year in his second year of arby. They also held onto Pedro Severino after he was DFA'd August 3.

You don't generally solve your offensive woes by picking up a big-hitting catcher in the offseason, because there just aren't too many big-hitting catchers around. The exception this year will be Wilson Contreras, but my guess is that he will get a deal bigger than the Brewers will be able to offer. Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez are pretty much the next best guys out there.

The Brewers will need to decide if Caratini has done enough to merit paying him probably around $4M or so next year. I think they will, so then they'll need to decide if that should be as a starter or as a back-up. With your astute observation of his late-season problems, he may be better served in the back-up role, as too much PT seems to tire him out as the season drags on. They also need to decide if they think Feliciano is ready. He was forced onto the MLB roster this season, but I don't think the Brewers are ready to hand him the reigns.

Barring a trade (always an option), I think they'll either go with the Caratini/Severino combo next year, or (probably more likely) they will find a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal with Feliciano as insurance in Nashville. There are quite a few veteran FA's out there who are over 30 and would probably be happy to sign on as a starter. These are guys like Tucker Barnhardt, Christian Vazquez, Jason Castro, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, or even bringing Narvaez back. None of the options will excite the masses, but any big offensive upgrade is probably going to have to come from elsewhere. 

We hope that Feliciano takes the next step to become an everyday MLB catcher, but my guess is they're looking at getting him some more "seasoning" in Nashville next year, and taking Caratini's spot when he leaves for free agency after next year. Longer-term, we hope that Jeferson Quero (#7 Brewers prospect on MLB.com) continues to advance through the system and impress. He's only 19 and just got promoted to A+ this year, so you're looking several years out for him to help at the MLB level.

[monty57]

Obviously, nothing's going to be done between now and the end of the year. Narvaez and Caratini are healthy, so we just hope they get hot. After the season, Narvaez is a free agent. Caratini has one year of arbitration remaining, and has a salary of $2,000,000 this year in his second year of arby. They also held onto Pedro Severino after he was DFA'd August 3.

You don't generally solve your offensive woes by picking up a big-hitting catcher in the offseason, because there just aren't too many big-hitting catchers around. The exception this year will be Wilson Contreras, but my guess is that he will get a deal bigger than the Brewers will be able to offer. Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez are pretty much the next best guys out there.

The Brewers will need to decide if Caratini has done enough to merit paying him probably around $4M or so next year. I think they will, so then they'll need to decide if that should be as a starter or as a back-up. With your astute observation of his late-season problems, he may be better served in the back-up role, as too much PT seems to tire him out as the season drags on. They also need to decide if they think Feliciano is ready. He was forced onto the MLB roster this season, but I don't think the Brewers are ready to hand him the reigns.

Barring a trade (always an option), I think they'll either go with the Caratini/Severino combo next year, or (probably more likely) they will find a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal with Feliciano as insurance in Nashville. There are quite a few veteran FA's out there who are over 30 and would probably be happy to sign on as a starter. These are guys like Tucker Barnhardt, Christian Vazquez, Jason Castro, Gary Sanchez, Curt Casali, or even bringing Narvaez back. None of the options will excite the masses, but any big offensive upgrade is probably going to have to come from elsewhere. 

We hope that Feliciano takes the next step to become an everyday MLB catcher, but my guess is they're looking at getting him some more "seasoning" in Nashville next year, and taking Caratini's spot when he leaves for free agency after next year. Longer-term, we hope that Jeferson Quero (#7 Brewers prospect on MLB.com) continues to advance through the system and impress. He's only 19 and just got promoted to A+ this year, so you're looking several years out for him to help at the MLB level.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I also think Caratini is brought back but obviously you don't want him playing as often as he had to in the second half. Narvaez IMO was all but gone, but his struggles might put him in a price range they could consider. More likely I think they will look elsewhere.

Feliciano impressed me in the very tiny sample he had with Milwaukee. However I think Monty is right in that they feel one more year at the 'Ville would be prudent.

Can't wait for Quero.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I also think Caratini is brought back but obviously you don't want him playing as often as he had to in the second half. Narvaez IMO was all but gone, but his struggles might put him in a price range they could consider. More likely I think they will look elsewhere.

Feliciano impressed me in the very tiny sample he had with Milwaukee. However I think Monty is right in that they feel one more year at the 'Ville would be prudent.

Can't wait for Quero.

[JohnBriggs12]

Catcher is the biggest need they have and it's not close.  Caratini is an excellent backup but he's not a guy you want starting more than 70 or so games.

With the emergence of William Contreras, maybe the Braves would part with Travis d'Arnoud?  Sure he's going to get $8 million next year and he'll be 34, but that could be money well spent.  Lord knows the Brewers have outfielders in abundance to offer the Braves.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Catcher is the biggest need they have and it's not close.  Caratini is an excellent backup but he's not a guy you want starting more than 70 or so games.

With the emergence of William Contreras, maybe the Braves would part with Travis d'Arnoud?  Sure he's going to get $8 million next year and he'll be 34, but that could be money well spent.  Lord knows the Brewers have outfielders in abundance to offer the Braves.

 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Catcher is the biggest need they have and it's not close.  Caratini is an excellent backup but he's not a guy you want starting more than 70 or so games.

With the emergence of William Contreras, maybe the Braves would part with Travis d'Arnoud?  Sure he's going to get $8 million next year and he'll be 34, but that could be money well spent.  Lord knows the Brewers have outfielders in abundance to offer the Braves.

 

Since 2016 (Narvaez's rookie season), Omar has 9.0 WAR and d'Arnoud has 9.1. From '20-'22, Narvaez has 4.4 WAR and d'Arnoud has 5.1. 

d'Arnoud is having a good (2.9 Fangraphs WAR) season after a disappointing (0.6 WAR) season last year. I would rather just pay Narvaez to come back or sign a different veteran FA rather than giving up prospects to trade for d'Arnoud while having to pay his salary. Looking at his history, I doubt d'Arnoud carries this year's success into future seasons, but anyone trading for him would be "buying high" on this year's success.

If we are to trade for a catcher, I think Stearns will look for a young player with lots of service time left. It would probably make sense to give up a good prospect in a position of depth for a young player in a position of need.

[monty57]

1 hour ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Catcher is the biggest need they have and it's not close.  Caratini is an excellent backup but he's not a guy you want starting more than 70 or so games.

With the emergence of William Contreras, maybe the Braves would part with Travis d'Arnoud?  Sure he's going to get $8 million next year and he'll be 34, but that could be money well spent.  Lord knows the Brewers have outfielders in abundance to offer the Braves.

 

Since 2016 (Narvaez's rookie season), Omar has 9.0 WAR and d'Arnoud has 9.1. From '20-'22, Narvaez has 4.4 WAR and d'Arnoud has 5.1. 

d'Arnoud is having a good (2.9 Fangraphs WAR) season after a disappointing (0.6 WAR) season last year. I would rather just pay Narvaez to come back or sign a different veteran FA rather than giving up prospects to trade for d'Arnoud while having to pay his salary. Looking at his history, I doubt d'Arnoud carries this year's success into future seasons, but anyone trading for him would be "buying high" on this year's success.

If we are to trade for a catcher, I think Stearns will look for a young player with lots of service time left. It would probably make sense to give up a good prospect in a position of depth for a young player in a position of need.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looking at the available FA catchers this offseason, I see a bunch of Omar Narvaez types. In fact, when you get past Contreras and the like bloated contract he'll likely sign, Narvaez may just be the next best option. Other comparable options include Gary Sanchez, Roberto Perez, Christian Vazquez, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges, and Mike Zunino. All guys who are decent defenders who you'd be happy with a .700+ OPS.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looking at the available FA catchers this offseason, I see a bunch of Omar Narvaez types. In fact, when you get past Contreras and the like bloated contract he'll likely sign, Narvaez may just be the next best option. Other comparable options include Gary Sanchez, Roberto Perez, Christian Vazquez, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Hedges, and Mike Zunino. All guys who are decent defenders who you'd be happy with a .700+ OPS.

[nate82]

Narvaez hasn't had his best year.  That was clearly last year but he looks like he is starting to rebound based on his wOBA.  

He goes through streaks like this as all players do.  It looks like he is in a valley right now and heading towards a peak.  I wouldn't be surprised if he takes off in September to at least be MLB Average.

Narvaez has been bit of an enigma this season.  For awhile he looked like his normal self and then from about mid June he has been absolutely awful.  It looks like he might be coming out of it but I am not sure he will.  It would definitely be a boost to the offense if Narvaez can become Aug-Sept of 2021 again.  That would really help the Brewers out offensively.  

[nate82]

Narvaez hasn't had his best year.  That was clearly last year but he looks like he is starting to rebound based on his wOBA.  

He goes through streaks like this as all players do.  It looks like he is in a valley right now and heading towards a peak.  I wouldn't be surprised if he takes off in September to at least be MLB Average.

Narvaez has been bit of an enigma this season.  For awhile he looked like his normal self and then from about mid June he has been absolutely awful.  It looks like he might be coming out of it but I am not sure he will.  It would definitely be a boost to the offense if Narvaez can become Aug-Sept of 2021 again.  That would really help the Brewers out offensively.