Article: List of Brewers Rule 5 Eligible Players - Who to Protect?

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I think there are going to be a lot of Valerio types left unprotected this year. The COVID year backed up a lot of players’ progress making more eligible players more years away from the majors. Turang and Robinson are arguably MLB ready and Uribe throws 102-mph fastballs. Those are easier to roster than a promising player who should probably start the year in AA and ideally would probably be a second-base only guy.

Outside of the top three, I think Castaneda has the best chance of getting picked both because more pitchers typically get chosen and because I know I have read some thoughts that his stuff would play better in relief, the role he would have in the big leagues at this point.

My counterpoint to Castaneda is the development and work we might see from lefty Clayton Andrews -@ARobsBrewCrewalludes to above (I very nearly included him in my comment above - he's still very young, he's a lefty, and he's shown solid success across all levels before injuries derailed his initial Triple-A bid.). Will they use this final 3-4 weeks to help inform this decision now that Andrews is in Biloxi (if the weather even allows them to play a game, that is)? I'm unsure, but it is probably a consideration especially given what ARob is telling us. Given Cam Devanney can fill in quite well at 3B and is just a really good defender, I'd have to consider given his maturation and development at the plate in 2022 and his improving frame and body he'd have to be a serious consideration as well. It will be interesting to see what happens - that much is certain.

[Joseph Zarr]

3 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I think there are going to be a lot of Valerio types left unprotected this year. The COVID year backed up a lot of players’ progress making more eligible players more years away from the majors. Turang and Robinson are arguably MLB ready and Uribe throws 102-mph fastballs. Those are easier to roster than a promising player who should probably start the year in AA and ideally would probably be a second-base only guy.

Outside of the top three, I think Castaneda has the best chance of getting picked both because more pitchers typically get chosen and because I know I have read some thoughts that his stuff would play better in relief, the role he would have in the big leagues at this point.

My counterpoint to Castaneda is the development and work we might see from lefty Clayton Andrews -@ARobsBrewCrewalludes to above (I very nearly included him in my comment above - he's still very young, he's a lefty, and he's shown solid success across all levels before injuries derailed his initial Triple-A bid.). Will they use this final 3-4 weeks to help inform this decision now that Andrews is in Biloxi (if the weather even allows them to play a game, that is)? I'm unsure, but it is probably a consideration especially given what ARob is telling us. Given Cam Devanney can fill in quite well at 3B and is just a really good defender, I'd have to consider given his maturation and development at the plate in 2022 and his improving frame and body he'd have to be a serious consideration as well. It will be interesting to see what happens - that much is certain.

[Jim French Stepstool]

As far as rolling the dice is concerned, I think we'd be in more danger losing Devanney than Valerio. I think Felix rebounds next year repeating AA (at least to start the season) & re-establishes himself to those whose radar he may have fallen off of. Having said that he had his struggles this season & I can't see him getting plucked. A longshot, but with the universal DH I wonder if someone considers Lutz.

Glad to hear the projections re Robinson being protected.

[Jim French Stepstool]

As far as rolling the dice is concerned, I think we'd be in more danger losing Devanney than Valerio. I think Felix rebounds next year repeating AA (at least to start the season) & re-establishes himself to those whose radar he may have fallen off of. Having said that he had his struggles this season & I can't see him getting plucked. A longshot, but with the universal DH I wonder if someone considers Lutz.

Glad to hear the projections re Robinson being protected.

[LouisEly]

Agreed - Valerio was in my consideration set (actually, the next guy at #7), but like others have said every year there are guys like him available but rarely picked.  I agree that they are more likely to lose Devanney (harder to find a SS with good offensive production than 2B) than Valerio, and I don't see them having more than six spots to add people, thus why I had Devanney on my list and not Valerio.

[LouisEly]

Agreed - Valerio was in my consideration set (actually, the next guy at #7), but like others have said every year there are guys like him available but rarely picked.  I agree that they are more likely to lose Devanney (harder to find a SS with good offensive production than 2B) than Valerio, and I don't see them having more than six spots to add people, thus why I had Devanney on my list and not Valerio.

[Outlander]

I think the list put together by Mass Haas is the way I would go as well. Would consider Valerio being only 21 but hard to believe another team would keep him on the roster all year. If a Devanney/Lutz/Andrews type got drafted I would be glad they had the opportunity but don't really see a Brewer being picked.

[Outlander]

I think the list put together by Mass Haas is the way I would go as well. Would consider Valerio being only 21 but hard to believe another team would keep him on the roster all year. If a Devanney/Lutz/Andrews type got drafted I would be glad they had the opportunity but don't really see a Brewer being picked.

[damuelle]

I'm very curious how the Rule 5 Draft will go this year. In theory, the extra MLB roster spot (26 vs. 25), universal DH (less in-game substitution in the NL) and 3-batter rule (fewer LOOGYs) will make it easier to stash an extra player, thus countering the 30-year trend of needing more MLB roster space for relief pitchers.

However, the cap on total pitchers on the MLB roster (i.e. 13 maximum) actually means it's easier to stash young hitters, not necessarily young pitchers. Just look at how many plate appearances that Jonathan Davis has gotten over the past month.

[Joseph Zarr]

6 minutes ago, damuelle said:

I'm very curious how the Rule 5 Draft will go this year. In theory, the extra MLB roster spot (26 vs. 25), universal DH (less in-game substitution in the NL) and 3-batter rule (fewer LOOGYs) will make it easier to stash an extra player, thus countering the 30-year trend of needing more MLB roster space for relief pitchers.

However, the cap on total pitchers on the MLB roster (i.e. 13 maximum) actually means it's easier to stash young hitters, not necessarily young pitchers. Just look at how many plate appearances that Jonathan Davis has gotten over the past month.

Very salient points! Lots for teams to consider and potentially a changing landscape given the new parameters.

[Joseph Zarr]

6 minutes ago, damuelle said:

I'm very curious how the Rule 5 Draft will go this year. In theory, the extra MLB roster spot (26 vs. 25), universal DH (less in-game substitution in the NL) and 3-batter rule (fewer LOOGYs) will make it easier to stash an extra player, thus countering the 30-year trend of needing more MLB roster space for relief pitchers.

However, the cap on total pitchers on the MLB roster (i.e. 13 maximum) actually means it's easier to stash young hitters, not necessarily young pitchers. Just look at how many plate appearances that Jonathan Davis has gotten over the past month.

Very salient points! Lots for teams to consider and potentially a changing landscape given the new parameters.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Devanney has been playing quite a lot at 3B this year, not exactly a position we're deep at. So I hope he squeaks through if left exposed.

They aren't still viewing Andrews through a two-way lens, are they?

[Jim French Stepstool]

Devanney has been playing quite a lot at 3B this year, not exactly a position we're deep at. So I hope he squeaks through if left exposed.

They aren't still viewing Andrews through a two-way lens, are they?

[Joseph Zarr]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Devanney has been playing quite a lot at 3B this year, not exactly a position we're deep at. So I hope he squeaks through if left exposed.

They aren't still viewing Andrews through a two-way lens, are they?

Nope, the only two-way player currently in the system is one Quinton Low. Andrews is strictly a pitcher now.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Devanney has been playing quite a lot at 3B this year, not exactly a position we're deep at. So I hope he squeaks through if left exposed.

They aren't still viewing Andrews through a two-way lens, are they?

Nope, the only two-way player currently in the system is one Quinton Low. Andrews is strictly a pitcher now.

[UpandIn]

 

3 hours ago, damuelle said:

I'm very curious how the Rule 5 Draft will go this year. In theory, the extra MLB roster spot (26 vs. 25), universal DH (less in-game substitution in the NL) and 3-batter rule (fewer LOOGYs) will make it easier to stash an extra player, thus countering the 30-year trend of needing more MLB roster space for relief pitchers.

However, the cap on total pitchers on the MLB roster (i.e. 13 maximum) actually means it's easier to stash young hitters, not necessarily young pitchers. Just look at how many plate appearances that Jonathan Davis has gotten over the past month.

This was my thought...though I'll be honest, I didn't really consider the 13 pitcher limit, more just the extra roster spot and the DH. 

I was just curious how close people have Valerio to protecting him, if people thought he could be picked.

The arguments against make sense. He's 21, been pushed aggressively, but also limited defensively and hasn't had a big year offensively. 

[UpandIn]

 

3 hours ago, damuelle said:

I'm very curious how the Rule 5 Draft will go this year. In theory, the extra MLB roster spot (26 vs. 25), universal DH (less in-game substitution in the NL) and 3-batter rule (fewer LOOGYs) will make it easier to stash an extra player, thus countering the 30-year trend of needing more MLB roster space for relief pitchers.

However, the cap on total pitchers on the MLB roster (i.e. 13 maximum) actually means it's easier to stash young hitters, not necessarily young pitchers. Just look at how many plate appearances that Jonathan Davis has gotten over the past month.

This was my thought...though I'll be honest, I didn't really consider the 13 pitcher limit, more just the extra roster spot and the DH. 

I was just curious how close people have Valerio to protecting him, if people thought he could be picked.

The arguments against make sense. He's 21, been pushed aggressively, but also limited defensively and hasn't had a big year offensively. 

[Joseph Zarr]

7 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Devanney has been playing quite a lot at 3B this year, not exactly a position we're deep at. So I hope he squeaks through if left exposed.

They aren't still viewing Andrews through a two-way lens, are they?

Yes. Yes he has. AND, he's stellar at the hot corner. He can absolutely nail down SS and 3B in a pinch. From earlier this season in Mississippi. He makes fielding look so easy - he has all year.

 

[Joseph Zarr]

7 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Devanney has been playing quite a lot at 3B this year, not exactly a position we're deep at. So I hope he squeaks through if left exposed.

They aren't still viewing Andrews through a two-way lens, are they?

Yes. Yes he has. AND, he's stellar at the hot corner. He can absolutely nail down SS and 3B in a pinch. From earlier this season in Mississippi. He makes fielding look so easy - he has all year.

 

[Robocaller]

On one hand, I can see a GM going down the list and saying "I want three of these guys." Because they have some potential.
On the other hand, GMs aren't just looking at the Brewers; they'd have to like our guy more than all the other available players from the other teams. Plus usually there aren't many players who get selected. 

Turang is the only one that should definitely be protected.

Richards and Uribe haven't been healthy; unless a GM has had a man-crush on them for years, I don't see them getting selected.

I know Robinson has been very good,  but it's only for one year. What kind of stuff does he have? Most teams don't put their best prospects in the pen. I can't see a GM getting excited unless he throws 98mph. He's very young to be eligible. 
Devanney has been good only this year. He wasn't a highly touted prospect. I've got to believe that most teams have someone they think is better in the minors. I think his floor is eventually as a AAAA callup, like Reyes or Mathias. That has little value. . Of course some of those guys turn into Jace, who has more value. 

[Robocaller]

On one hand, I can see a GM going down the list and saying "I want three of these guys." Because they have some potential.
On the other hand, GMs aren't just looking at the Brewers; they'd have to like our guy more than all the other available players from the other teams. Plus usually there aren't many players who get selected. 

Turang is the only one that should definitely be protected.

Richards and Uribe haven't been healthy; unless a GM has had a man-crush on them for years, I don't see them getting selected.

I know Robinson has been very good,  but it's only for one year. What kind of stuff does he have? Most teams don't put their best prospects in the pen. I can't see a GM getting excited unless he throws 98mph. He's very young to be eligible. 
Devanney has been good only this year. He wasn't a highly touted prospect. I've got to believe that most teams have someone they think is better in the minors. I think his floor is eventually as a AAAA callup, like Reyes or Mathias. That has little value. . Of course some of those guys turn into Jace, who has more value. 

[ARobsBrewCrew]

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

On one hand, I can see a GM going down the list and saying "I want three of these guys." Because they have some potential.
On the other hand, GMs aren't just looking at the Brewers; they'd have to like our guy more than all the other available players from the other teams. Plus usually there aren't many players who get selected. 

Turang is the only one that should definitely be protected.

Richards and Uribe haven't been healthy; unless a GM has had a man-crush on them for years, I don't see them getting selected.

I know Robinson has been very good,  but it's only for one year. What kind of stuff does he have? Most teams don't put their best prospects in the pen. I can't see a GM getting excited unless he throws 98mph. He's very young to be eligible. 
Devanney has been good only this year. He wasn't a highly touted prospect. I've got to believe that most teams have someone they think is better in the minors. I think his floor is eventually as a AAAA callup, like Reyes or Mathias. That has little value. . Of course some of those guys turn into Jace, who has more value. 

What you say is definitely fair, but I think you should check again on Robinson and Devanney.  This is not the first season in which either has impressed.  Also, I don’t know who Richards is  

[ARobsBrewCrew]

4 hours ago, Robocaller said:

On one hand, I can see a GM going down the list and saying "I want three of these guys." Because they have some potential.
On the other hand, GMs aren't just looking at the Brewers; they'd have to like our guy more than all the other available players from the other teams. Plus usually there aren't many players who get selected. 

Turang is the only one that should definitely be protected.

Richards and Uribe haven't been healthy; unless a GM has had a man-crush on them for years, I don't see them getting selected.

I know Robinson has been very good,  but it's only for one year. What kind of stuff does he have? Most teams don't put their best prospects in the pen. I can't see a GM getting excited unless he throws 98mph. He's very young to be eligible. 
Devanney has been good only this year. He wasn't a highly touted prospect. I've got to believe that most teams have someone they think is better in the minors. I think his floor is eventually as a AAAA callup, like Reyes or Mathias. That has little value. . Of course some of those guys turn into Jace, who has more value. 

What you say is definitely fair, but I think you should check again on Robinson and Devanney.  This is not the first season in which either has impressed.  Also, I don’t know who Richards is  

[CheeseheadInQC]

5 hours ago, Robocaller said:

On one hand, I can see a GM going down the list and saying "I want three of these guys." Because they have some potential.
On the other hand, GMs aren't just looking at the Brewers; they'd have to like our guy more than all the other available players from the other teams. Plus usually there aren't many players who get selected. 

Turang is the only one that should definitely be protected.

Richards and Uribe haven't been healthy; unless a GM has had a man-crush on them for years, I don't see them getting selected.

I know Robinson has been very good,  but it's only for one year. What kind of stuff does he have? Most teams don't put their best prospects in the pen. I can't see a GM getting excited unless he throws 98mph. He's very young to be eligible. 
Devanney has been good only this year. He wasn't a highly touted prospect. I've got to believe that most teams have someone they think is better in the minors. I think his floor is eventually as a AAAA callup, like Reyes or Mathias. That has little value. . Of course some of those guys turn into Jace, who has more value. 

Robinson’s stuff has long been seen as plus. Honestly, he spent three years at Rookie ball never posting an ERA below 5. If he didn’t have plus stuff he wouldn’t have survived the COVID purge. It was just a matter of putting it all together, which he has.

Guys with huge fastballs also tend to get picked. Despite the injury, I think there is a better chance Uribe is taken in the top three picks than that he goes undrafted if he isn’t added.

[CheeseheadInQC]

5 hours ago, Robocaller said:

On one hand, I can see a GM going down the list and saying "I want three of these guys." Because they have some potential.
On the other hand, GMs aren't just looking at the Brewers; they'd have to like our guy more than all the other available players from the other teams. Plus usually there aren't many players who get selected. 

Turang is the only one that should definitely be protected.

Richards and Uribe haven't been healthy; unless a GM has had a man-crush on them for years, I don't see them getting selected.

I know Robinson has been very good,  but it's only for one year. What kind of stuff does he have? Most teams don't put their best prospects in the pen. I can't see a GM getting excited unless he throws 98mph. He's very young to be eligible. 
Devanney has been good only this year. He wasn't a highly touted prospect. I've got to believe that most teams have someone they think is better in the minors. I think his floor is eventually as a AAAA callup, like Reyes or Mathias. That has little value. . Of course some of those guys turn into Jace, who has more value. 

Robinson’s stuff has long been seen as plus. Honestly, he spent three years at Rookie ball never posting an ERA below 5. If he didn’t have plus stuff he wouldn’t have survived the COVID purge. It was just a matter of putting it all together, which he has.

Guys with huge fastballs also tend to get picked. Despite the injury, I think there is a better chance Uribe is taken in the top three picks than that he goes undrafted if he isn’t added.