Article: Series Preview: Showdown in St. Louis

[Tommy Ciaccio]

The Brewers won't have another off day until the 25th of August, and starting that long and brutal stretch is inarguably the most consequential series to date. The season series is tied at 6-6. What direction will those numbers go when the next three games wrap? Let's check it out.

Fans in Milwaukee were given reason to exhale as their home team put a convincing end to their grim post-trade deadline skid. The pressure is by no means off of the Brewers who, at present, are out of the division lead, out of the playoff picture and off of any analysts top ten in power rankings.

Adding to the anxiety of the moment is that the Brewers take their talents on the road to none other than the home of the red hot St. Louis Cardinals. The season series is 6-6 to this point. Poetically enough, the uneven number of games ahead will tilt who leads the division at the series’ end. Can the Brewers reclaim the top spot in the Central by winning in enemy territory, or will Sunday evening find them buried deeper in the standings and further out of reach of the postseason? Let’s check out the match-ups. 

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Friday August 12th
Eric Lauer (8-3 3.59 ERA)
Jordan Montgomery (4-3 3.53 ERA)

Eric Lauer has been an engaging watch over the previous couple of months. A slow but steady return to early season form has been emerging after a prolonged stretch that saw his home run rate explode.

It should be stated that while run prevention has been stemmed, actual base runners haven’t. A strong start that saw him surrendering only one run against the Reds still included a bases loaded jam in the first, and consecutive innings to follow where two men reached. It goes without saying that the Cardinals are a bit more effective at turning base runners into runs, so Lauer will have to play a tighter game to stay on his present arc.

Jordan Montgomery was acquired at the trade deadline from the Yankees and immediately faced them in his next start. The start was a microcosm of the lefty’s career. An intimidating and at times brilliant start cut short by injuries. In this case it was merely leg cramps, but injuries have been a part of Montgomery’s story for his entire major league career, not playing a full season from 2017-2020, and it has to be imagined that the new acquisition won’t have the longest leash if he appears to labor on the mound in this start.

Saturday August 13th
Corbin Burnes (8-5 2.45 ERA)
Adam Wainwright (8-8 3.42 ERA)
Another battle of the aces!

The numbers that matter suggest that Corbin Burnes is still the ace he has been since 2020, but he’s only notched one actual win since July 6th. Ultimately this means nothing in terms of what you can expect to get from Burnes when he’s on the mound. He’s still striking out almost a third of the batters he faces, he still is in the 97th percentile in whiff rate, and his WHIP still resides south of one. Simply put, Burnes is still the player most likely to give the team a W, so long as the offense shows up to put up some run support. 

This year finds Albert Pujols in the limelight given his imminent departure from the field of play, but Adam Wainwright deserves just as much love in terms of freakish talent and staying power. In fact, unlike Pujols, career-Cardinal Wainwright is still putting up meaningfully competitive numbers every year he touches the mound. Waino’s most recent start wasn’t reflective of his standard excellence, getting touched up by the Yankees for eight hits, six runs and most uncharacteristically, four walks.

Sunday August 14th 
Aaron Ashby (2-10 4.32 ERA)
Miles Mikolas (8-3 3.50 ERA)
The trajectory of Aaron Ashby has devolved, morphing from concerning to exhausting. A young player can’t be blamed for the early struggles of their career. One only needs to look back to Burnes’ 2019 to see how quickly miserable can become elite. That said, a competitive window can slam shut without proper maintenance, and Ashby has been trending worse by the month for a while now. With a WHIP nearing 1.50 it has to be assumed that Ashby will find his way back to the pen (where he’s been masterful) once Houser returns from injury. 

Miles Mikolas has been an interesting story for the Cardinals. After a rough start to his career Mikolas righted the ship with a three year stint in Japan. He levied that into a contract and eventual extension with the Cardinals with whom he’s pitched with relative consistency since 2018. The integrity of that consistency was blown to shreds in his most recent start where he gave up a stunning 10 runs in 2.2 innings against the Rockies. It is at once quite difficult to imagine all is right with Mikolas, but it also feels impossible to expect a commensurately horrific start against the Brewers. 

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Players To Watch
Montgomery: In a trade that confused many but has so far paid off well for the Cardinals, St. Louis traded defensive wunderkind Harrison Bader in exchange for the big lefthander Montgomery. Montgomery is slated to open the series and is something to behold on the mound. Aside from his size, his over the top release point combined with the severe tilt he leans into in his delivery makes him a fascinating study in mechanics.

Willy Adames: The numbers haven’t been as well-rounded for Adames as they were in his first season as a Brewer, but with a reduction in average has been a surge in power. As shortstops go, only Corey Seager (25) has had more home runs than Adames (22), and Adames been a source of greater run production in the process. Having just walked off the Rays with a single to wrap the two-game sweep on Wednesday it will be fun to see if Adames high-stakes antics can carry through in this consequential series.

Pujols: In 2008, Pujols accomplished the insane feat of a 9.2 WAR season as a first baseman and elite-tier player. The previous eight years combined have not seen that level of production and now the gears on The Machine are rusty and ready to retire. If one can separate themselves from the decade of terror Prince Albert wrought upon the Brewers in his first stint with the Cardinals, they might be able to get lost in the childlike joy Pujols is exhibiting in his farewell tour. 

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Predictions
Less of a reflection on the Brewers recent struggles and more a plaintive acceptance of the fact that these are away games taking place against a very good Cardinals team, I feel like it’s logical to assume that the Brewers lose this series. 

In Summation
It simply can’t be overstated how crucial this series is for both teams playing, but the Brewers are in a uniquely precarious situation here. Yes, it’s important for the Brewers to play well against the Cardinals in order to stay afloat in the division, but what awaits them immediately after is a series against the monstrous Dodgers. Make no mistake: this week is all hands on deck, white-knuckle, high consequence baseball.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

Not off to a good start. The Crew is nearing must win status tonight with Ashby going tomorrow.