57-game season - Brewers & Cards

[edfunderburk]

As of today, there are 57 games remaining in the 2022 season

MLW & STL are tied with identical 57-48 records

In essence, we have a 57-game season ahead to determine the NL Central champion

It appears that STL has the “easier” schedule

Neither team is that good - both have major holes

STL addressed their pitching shortage by adding two quality starters to offset their injuries

MLW potentially strengthens their bullpen - which was particularly weak in the middle innings

MLW also traded away one of the top closers in MLB - but received a good one in return 

STL has a better offense - MLW likely has the better pitching staff

I believe the key to who wins the division will be defense - a supposed strength for MLW that has been “less than that” YTD

Like others on this forum - I’m frustrated with the lackluster play of the Brewers - especially since the trade deadline

As an avid fan - addict - here’s hoping they hit reset & start playing to their potential in these final two months of what has been a disappointing season thus far 

[NBBrewFan]

4 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

It appears that STL has the “easier” schedule

The strength of schedule (SOS) at Tankathon has the Brewers remaining schedule at #19 while the Cardinals is #29 (lower is easier) so that "appearance" is supported by data/modeling.

Depending on how everything shakes out the 2nd place team in the NL Central could still be the #6 seeded (WC) team.

[sveumrules]

538 sees Division Odds as 52% STL / 48% MIL currently.

FanGraphs (59% MIL / 41 % STL) and BPro (68% MIL / 32% STL) both favor the Brewers.

As the standings, ahem, stand ? today, it looks like whoever loses the NLC will be battling PHI for the last Wild Card,

For whatever it is or isn't worth, here are the respective overall Playoff Odds for each of those three teams from each of the three publicly available projections with about two turds of the season in the books...

PECOTA (MIL 82% PHI 67% STL 54%)

FanGraphs (MIL 76% PHI 66% STL 64%)

538 (PHI 76% STL 74% MIL 70%)

Me? I'm kind of a simpleton. I'd say the Brewers playoff odds are about 50%, they'll either make it or they won't.