The Nashville Five

[nate82]

On 8/6/2022 at 6:51 AM, Never Outhustled said:

How is Ruiz as a 2nd baseman? He could be a option there.  Platoon with Turang? 

Ruiz is Weeks bad defensively.  Actually reading through some of his scouting reports he sounds a lot like Weeks but with more speed.  

This is from 2021 and Ruiz has improved a bit with the bat since this scouting report was put together but defensively it doesn't look like he has changed much though he looks to be a decent CF.  So along with LF it looks like CF is also a spot he can play.  

https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/esteury-ruiz

Field: Poor fielder with major questions around where he ends up long term. Throughout his professional career Ruiz has spent time at second, third, and left field, the latter of which most likely his final home. An extreme lack of instincts and poor hands really hinder Ruiz's ability to be even a fringe defender at any position at the MLB level. Likely limited to left field long term where you hope his plus speed plays. Grade: 30

I think Ruiz, Turang and Frelick are probably untouchable in a trade unless the Brewers are overwhelmed with an offer.  Wiemer and Mitchell are probably available for the right price but I don't think they will be moved.  Taylor will start to get expensive here soon so the Brewers will need a replacement for him.  I think Mitchell is probably the more likely player to get traded if the Brewers do move one of the OF's.  

[LouisEly]

Chances of each (making the opening day roster/seeing the majors in 2023)

Ruiz: (80%/99%) - at the minimum will compete with Davis for the #5 OF spot, but they may want him to get more experience in CF before bringing him up.  If McCutchen doesn't come back and/or they trade Hiura then Yelich spends a lot more time as the DH and Ruiz is a shoe-in for the roster.

Turang: (80%/99%) - it makes a lot of sense for him to replace Wong as the starting 2B and platoon with Brosseau/Urias to set him up for success as they have to add him to the roster after the season.  There is a chance that the Brewers wait until June so that they can Super-2 him.

Frelick: (40%/80%) - I think there is a very high chance they Super-2 him, but he may force the issue and hit his way onto the roster.  Barring the slim chance of a major regression that keeps him in the minors, he'll likely be up at some point, but if Ruiz takes a step forward and shows what he did this year isn't a fluke then I don't think they bring up Frelick to sit on the bench.

Mitchell: (10%/50%) - barring multiple injuries to Yelich/Renfroe/Taylor I think he goes back to AAA for more experience, but if there are injuries they may go with him over Frelick to preserve Frelick's Super 2 status and option years.

Wiemer: (2%/25%) - he needs to look a lot better than what he's looked like the last two months to have any chance of seeing Milwaukee in 2023.

[Jopal78]

With an OPS of .851 across three levels so far, if Frelick can continue his level of production through the end of the minor league season it seems logical he would get the call to be on the Brewers in September 

[RedStickBrew]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

With an OPS of .851 across three levels so far, if Frelick can continue his level of production through the end of the minor league season it seems logical he would get the call to be on the Brewers in September 

He has had an amazing year and doesn't appear to ever be overmatched at the plate.  I personally am of the opinion he would be an upgrade right now in Milwaukee, but I'm sure burning service time is something the FO is weighing with deciding when to call him up.

[MVP2110]

Considering rosters only expand to 28 now instead of up to 40 like before, I think that makes it unlikely we see Frelick this year. Jace coming back will take a spot and then I think Turang & Ruiz are both ahead of Frelick in terms of call ups. I think it would take a pretty significant spate of injuries for Frelick to see ML time this season 

[Playing Catch]

In another thread, someone pointed out Ruiz's low exit velocities. And in the recent minor league report Zarr mentioned his bunting acumen. This begs the question... Are bunts factored into exit velocity averages?

[Jenkins5]

Turang and Frelick are the two I see who could be opening day starters. Both in my opinion should be called up soon to start giving them at bats to prep them for next year. Get the adjustment period started now. I think both can contribute. Frelick has proven at each jump to make quick adjustments. Turang starts off slower with adjusting and not as easy of a path to play time currently as Frelick.

 

Ruiz I think has a chance to make roster off the bench. I think he brings a lot off the bench as late defense and baserunner sub. Bottom of ninth. Renfroe walks. Make the sub and put the 70-80 grade speed out there. That's an asset. He will need to continue to show this season at plate was for real.

 

Mitchell and Weimer I think go back to AAA unless either are trade bait. They are currently behind the other 3. Weimer has been ice cold for 6 weeks or so now. The hit tool issues from college we didn't see last year or until mid/lat June need to get corrected. Still believe he is a starting RF talent. Still get the Corey Hart/ Hunter Pence vibes. Mitchell just needs to stay healthy and start to show some domination. He has been very good but has yet to put all those tools together to be the big impact player he can be.

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

In another thread, someone pointed out Ruiz's low exit velocities. And in the recent minor league report Zarr mentioned his bunting acumen. This begs the question... Are bunts factored into exit velocity averages?

I believe the answer to that question is yes....and for players who utilize the bunt with any level of frequency for base hits, it definitely biases their average exit velo.  I would imagine there are advanced stats that account for average exit velo on swings only vs including the bunted balls.  But a bunted ball is indeed a batted ball, and I wouldn't be surprised if minor league stats tracking doesn't screen out bunting since a vast majority of players don't bunt anymore.

[Jenkins5]

2 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

In another thread, someone pointed out Ruiz's low exit velocities. And in the recent minor league report Zarr mentioned his bunting acumen. This begs the question... Are bunts factored into exit velocity averages?

I can't speak for his minor league exit velocities but at major league level in very small sample (27 ABs) he struggled in that aspect. in 22 batted balls he only had one barrel hit which was a nice 100mph but he only averaged 70 max velo and that is 6 percentile. His weak contact was a blistering 27% (4.3% is league average).  Had 0 solid contacts (6.1% is league average). Again it was a small sample but he struggle to adjust and make good contact. 95.5% of contact was weak, topped, under, flare/burner verse 4.5% solid and barrel. 13.7% is league average for solid/barrels.

[wibadgers23]

2 hours ago, Jenkins5 said:

Turang and Frelick are the two I see who could be opening day starters. Both in my opinion should be called up soon to start giving them at bats to prep them for next year. Get the adjustment period started now. I think both can contribute. Frelick has proven at each jump to make quick adjustments. Turang starts off slower with adjusting and not as easy of a path to play time currently as Frelick.

 

Ruiz I think has a chance to make roster off the bench. I think he brings a lot off the bench as late defense and baserunner sub. Bottom of ninth. Renfroe walks. Make the sub and put the 70-80 grade speed out there. That's an asset. He will need to continue to show this season at plate was for real.

 

Mitchell and Weimer I think go back to AAA unless either are trade bait. They are currently behind the other 3. Weimer has been ice cold for 6 weeks or so now. The hit tool issues from college we didn't see last year or until mid/lat June need to get corrected. Still believe he is a starting RF talent. Still get the Corey Hart/ Hunter Pence vibes. Mitchell just needs to stay healthy and start to show some domination. He has been very good but has yet to put all those tools together to be the big impact player he can be.

Really feels like it’s been a lot longer than 6 weeks for Wiemer.. Maybe not though. I know he started out on fire in AA but it feels like he’s struggled for a good 3 months since his hot start, some of it being injury related for sure. Either way, I hope he busts out of this slump and finishes the year strong. I miss good Joey Wiemer.

[Jenkins5]

Yeah I was wrong. Weimer hit .284 until end of May. Since June 1st .196 with only 3 HRs and 64ks. His promotion was surprising to me. Maybe it was to try to shake him back up to get him back on track? Hopefully he can figure out his since again. He was on his way to being a top 50 prospect and one of the most dangerous bats in minors. Its sad to watch him struggling so bad with how exciting he had been up to that point. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 hours ago, Jenkins5 said:

I can't speak for his minor league exit velocities but at major league level in very small sample (27 ABs) he struggled in that aspect. in 22 batted balls he only had one barrel hit which was a nice 100mph but he only averaged 70 max velo and that is 6 percentile. His weak contact was a blistering 27% (4.3% is league average).  Had 0 solid contacts (6.1% is league average). Again it was a small sample but he struggle to adjust and make good contact. 95.5% of contact was weak, topped, under, flare/burner verse 4.5% solid and barrel. 13.7% is league average for solid/barrels.

Let him get jammed frequently in his Brewer career. Let's see him hit toppers over the mound, slow rollers to 3B, high hoppers in the hole.........oh yeah, and bunts...........& beat out 85-95% of that stuff, like what seems to happen to our infield all too frequently.

I'm only half-kidding.

[UpandIn]

16 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

In another thread, someone pointed out Ruiz's low exit velocities. And in the recent minor league report Zarr mentioned his bunting acumen. This begs the question... Are bunts factored into exit velocity averages?

That was me and I was simply repeating a point another scout had made.

But I do not believe they count bunting among exit velocities for. I've seen when they've adjusted FOR bunts and they put all bunts down at 40MPH. That said, he only had one bunt, AND he only had 2 "hard hit" balls, and his hardest was 100.6 MPH.

So lets say, for the sake of argument, 1 bunt=40MPH, 2 Hard hit balls. Using his hardest hit ball at 100.6 and then the bare minimum for the other, 95 MPH, that's an average exit velocity of 78.3. So for the other 19 batted balls...well, either way, he wasn't hitting the ball hard on average. 

These come with all the disclaimers, 22 batted balls, first trip up, all that.

 

-This is when I swerved more than a LITTLE off-topic into blind speculation;

This is why I believe he's the most likely to be flipped this off-season for a larger upgrade. I think Tampa Bay could be a good fit for the Brewers. They seem to lack CF prospects, but they've got 2 guys in AAA who have 65 hit tools, one with 70 speed(though just 20 power). They have Yandy Diaz. 

I could see Ruiz for Diaz or maybe Mitchell+Ruiz for Curtis Mead or Xavier Edwards+Colby White or Nick Bitsko. The later is a high upside pitcher with a shoulder injury, the prior is a reliever who will very likely be a big league closer sooner than later but will miss all of '23 tue to TJ.

 

Of course Stearns/Arnold/Flanagan, maybe they all really just love Ruiz that much. still, I see 4 guys in the OF in AAA and Yelich engrained in one spot and they're unlikely to take a talented athlete with a good glove and stick him at DH. 

What's more, I don't wanna jump the gun here and I sincerely doubt he'd factor into these decisions, but Jackson Chourio doesn't seem like he's going to be a typical prospect who spends half a year at each level. He COULD start in AA and then be ready, legitimately ready by '23/'24. I know, that's getting WAAAY ahead of ourselves(though in looking at prospects who've debuted before the age of 20, it's a lot longer list than I'd anticipated...which got me even MORE off-topic and had me wondering if the Brewers may do a Wander Franco like deal with Jackson Chourio, a 18 year old who's currently struggling...in so much as he struggles, at HiA ball...so yeah, WAY off topic). 

But we've got OFers. We need impact corner IFers. We don't have any. Black is the only prospect other than Turang on the way unless you count Brown(and since I'm already handing out a 200M extension to Chourio, we may as well).

[folly412]

Turang and Frelick are the primary 2B and CF.  Ruiz is probably on the roster as the 4th outfielder/LF when Yelich DHs.  Mitchell is playing really well; he either cracks the roster as last bench bat or starts in AAA.  Weimer starts in AAA and healthy, hopefully rakes his way up.

Curveball: At least one of these guys gets traded.  

[RedStickBrew]

Just wanted to bump this thread up with how the Nashville 5 have been performing.  Great to see Wiemer have a pretty good last week.  Hopefully they can keep it going.

[UpandIn]

On 8/13/2022 at 9:43 AM, folly412 said:

Turang and Frelick are the primary 2B and CF.  Ruiz is probably on the roster as the 4th outfielder/LF when Yelich DHs.  Mitchell is playing really well; he either cracks the roster as last bench bat or starts in AAA.  Weimer starts in AAA and healthy, hopefully rakes his way up.

Curveball: At least one of these guys gets traded.  

My guess it it's Ruiz. I have no factual or even rumored basis, but when they said trades fell through, my feeling was that Ruiz was going to be part of another deal. 

7 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

Just wanted to bump this thread up with how the Nashville 5 have been performing.  Great to see Wiemer have a pretty good last week.  Hopefully they can keep it going.

I was rather confident we'd hear something by now that Frelick would be joining the Brewers. Still time of course and each day is a day less of service time, but I was expecting his debut to be vs the Cubs on the 26th by now. 

[Hopper]

On 8/5/2022 at 1:12 PM, wibadgers23 said:

Turang, Ruiz, Frelick, Wiemer and Mitchell

What do we think is in store for these guys come 2023?  I can easily see Turang as the starting 2B on Opening Day.  He's spent the entire year in AAA, has had success and is a much cheaper option than Wong or any other FA.  The outfield is a little more complicated.  Yelich is a lock in LF.  Could Frelick or Ruiz be the starting CF on Opening Day?  Does Renfroe move to primarily a DH role with Frelick and Ruiz both in the outfield?  Or does Renfroe stay in RF with one of Frelick/Ruiz starting in CF and the other one being the 4th outfielder?  My prediction:  Turang, Frelick and Ruiz begin 2023 on the Opening Day roster with Wiemer and Mitchell starting the year in AAA not too far behind those guys.

Our problem is, we have probably 3 guys that should be our primary DH. (Hiura, Yelich, and Renfroe)  Obviously, that won't work.  Yelich is a crappy fielder now, and will only get worse, but I don't have enough faith in management to realize this for another year or two.

My guess is that Frelick and Turang start out on the big team.  Either Turang is our super sub across multiple positions like Peterson is now, or he starts out as our everyday 2B.  My true feelings are that he is our super sub.

No way Yelich becomes our primary DH just yet, I think he is penciled in as the daily LF.  Frelick in CF, and Renfroe in RF.  Taylor will be our 4th OF, and Ruiz will be up as soon as there is an injury.

Wiemer and Mitchell will probably be on the cusp of making it to the big team all season, and will more than likely get their chance due to injuries at some point.

I want Hiura to be out primary DH.

[Hopper]

In all honesty, I hope Ruiz gets traded this off season.  I am waiting for the day that Wiemer, Frelick, and Mitchell are our starting OF, Ruiz can get traded off and I won't be hurt.

[Lathund]

9 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I was rather confident we'd hear something by now that Frelick would be joining the Brewers. Still time of course and each day is a day less of service time, but I was expecting his debut to be vs the Cubs on the 26th by now. 

The new CBA have draft pick rewards for rookie-eligible players who are on the opening day roster and reach certain milestones (ROTY/MVP/CY voting I believe), I saw somewhere that I think it was August 28th that would guarantee a call-up kept their rookie eligibility. Could be related to that. Or waiting for the extra roster spot on September 1st. 

At least I hope it's one of those, since it would mean that they do plan to bring him up eventually. Because I think he's got an excellent chance of being an improvement on both Taylor and Davis straight away. Taylor has a career 99 wRC+, but an 88 wRC+ this year. Which isn't terrible for a solid defensive CF, but when batting 9th most of the time I'd prefer if that number came more from OBP than HRs as is the case for Taylor. A .276 OBP is really, really bad. Brewers hit plenty of HRs, would happily trade a few of them for guys getting on base. 

Basically, I think that as long as Sal Frelick can put up like an 80 wRC+ or better, based on a good OBP, he makes the team better. And I don't think you need to have Brewers-tinted glasses to expect that. Even a projection system like Steamer projects a 108 wRC+ for Frelick this year based on the minor league numbers. He's a high-contact and low-strikeout guy who takes his walks too, that should translate fairly well. He has a .404 OBP in the minors this year, he could drop almost 100 points and still be valuable. And he won't drop that much. 

[UpandIn]

1 hour ago, Lathund said:

The new CBA have draft pick rewards for rookie-eligible players who are on the opening day roster and reach certain milestones (ROTY/MVP/CY voting I believe), I saw somewhere that I think it was August 28th that would guarantee a call-up kept their rookie eligibility. Could be related to that. Or waiting for the extra roster spot on September 1st. 

I get that, but I thought the day was the 24th. I didn't expect he'd start his career in LA, but I assumed he'd be in the lineup for the start of the Cubs series at home.

I don't think the roster spot is a particularly big deal. You can send Davis back down, DFA. That's fine. Ruiz can take his place when rosters expand. You still have Taylor.

[nate82]

7 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I get that, but I thought the day was the 24th. I didn't expect he'd start his career in LA, but I assumed he'd be in the lineup for the start of the Cubs series at home.

I don't think the roster spot is a particularly big deal. You can send Davis back down, DFA. That's fine. Ruiz can take his place when rosters expand. You still have Taylor.

You are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think Frelick is going to be up with the Brewers any time soon.  I don't believe he will be up before the 31st of August and if he isn't up before then he probably won't be up at all with the Brewers.  The only way Frelick is playing for the Brewers before the 31st of August is if there is a serious injury to two or more OF's on the Brewers roster.  

Right now Ruiz is ahead of Frelick for being called up.  If there aren't multiple injuries in the OF over the next couple of days don't expect Frelick to be playing for the Brewers anytime soon.  I think the Brewers will either wait for September or next year for Frelick to make his debut with the Brewers.  If Frelick isn't added to the 40-man by the 31st of August then he is not coming up at all.  The 31st is the deadline for players to be playoff eligible unless there is an injury and the MLB commissioner approves the player being added.  Frelick not being on the 40-man roster is probably the reason why he won't be called up.  He could replace Davis but I don't think the Brewers will make this move even though Davis is a wasted roster spot right now.  Ruiz will be the first one to be called up and I think he gets the call and plays on 9/2 against the Dbacks.  

[UpandIn]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

You are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think Frelick is going to be up with the Brewers any time soon.  I don't believe he will be up before the 31st of August and if he isn't up before then he probably won't be up at all with the Brewers.  The only way Frelick is playing for the Brewers before the 31st of August is if there is a serious injury to two or more OF's on the Brewers roster.  

Right now Ruiz is ahead of Frelick for being called up.  If there aren't multiple injuries in the OF over the next couple of days don't expect Frelick to be playing for the Brewers anytime soon.  I think the Brewers will either wait for September or next year for Frelick to make his debut with the Brewers.  If Frelick isn't added to the 40-man by the 31st of August then he is not coming up at all.  The 31st is the deadline for players to be playoff eligible unless there is an injury and the MLB commissioner approves the player being added.  Frelick not being on the 40-man roster is probably the reason why he won't be called up.  He could replace Davis but I don't think the Brewers will make this move even though Davis is a wasted roster spot right now.  Ruiz will be the first one to be called up and I think he gets the call and plays on 9/2 against the Dbacks.  

You're right, I very much will be. I understand service time concerns and all that, but he's so obviously the best CF'er in the Brewers entire organization right now...

At least get Ruiz up if you've got ANY confidence in him. He's already on the 40 man. 

This is getting frustrating. This is a sinking ship and I KEEP waiting for them to show SOME level of urgency and it's just not there. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

You are setting yourself up for disappointment if you think Frelick is going to be up with the Brewers any time soon.  I don't believe he will be up before the 31st of August and if he isn't up before then he probably won't be up at all with the Brewers.  The only way Frelick is playing for the Brewers before the 31st of August is if there is a serious injury to two or more OF's on the Brewers roster.  

Right now Ruiz is ahead of Frelick for being called up.  If there aren't multiple injuries in the OF over the next couple of days don't expect Frelick to be playing for the Brewers anytime soon.  I think the Brewers will either wait for September or next year for Frelick to make his debut with the Brewers.  If Frelick isn't added to the 40-man by the 31st of August then he is not coming up at all.  The 31st is the deadline for players to be playoff eligible unless there is an injury and the MLB commissioner approves the player being added.  Frelick not being on the 40-man roster is probably the reason why he won't be called up.  He could replace Davis but I don't think the Brewers will make this move even though Davis is a wasted roster spot right now.  Ruiz will be the first one to be called up and I think he gets the call and plays on 9/2 against the Dbacks.  

Hard to understand why they would be adamant about keeping Davis' spot on both the 40-man and 25-man rosters. If it's solely about defensive insurance, I can guarantee you Mitchell, if not Frelick, would give you just as good of defense in CF. 

[StearnsFTW]

On 8/5/2022 at 6:56 PM, Jim French Stepstool said:

Nice thread.

Most seem to think Frelick, Ruiz & Turang are the best bets. I agree. Turang is a good bet to replace Wong at 2B, but with the "position player group" mentality I wouldn't be surprised if he moves around a little as well. Depending on circumstances It wouldn't surprise me if Frelick or Ruiz are here before the season ends. Weimer & Mitchell are a little tougher call. The DH spot has a lot of candidates so it's hard to say which way they'll go, it could certainly open up a spot for one of them. Mitchell hasn't been able to get the volume of ABs due to health so Joey might be a little ahead of him as far as a roster spot in 2023.

No one saw any of Stearns' bigger off-season or early-season trades coming so something we aren't anticipating will probably happen. Yelich can't be traded, so would Tellez go somewhere in a package deal with Yelich moving to 1B? He doesn't fit the 1B "profile" but with that spot being a ? in the system & Yelich here for awhile, who knows?

Yelich at 1B has always been my assumption.  With the OF prospects we have it should happen sooner than later.

[wibadgers23]

Or just have Yelich DH and sign a real 1B or stick with Rowdy.