Time for the August prospect list update!

[True Blue Brew Crew]

2 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

The best way to start a discussion is always to be as condescending as possible about how wrong every one else's opinions are.

Well apparently people can rip clancy's list at will but when they compile their lists in the exact same fashion, relying heavily on stats that can be Googled in 30 seconds, it's off limits for anyone to offer a differing perspective.

[PlayerHader]

5 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

There are 2 giant red flags that should give people pause but clearly isn't. El Paso/San Antonio and small sample. Is a single person generating their ranking looking at Ruiz's previous seasons? Your not accounting for the whole sum of data on all of these guys. Your basing everything on some wild, environment inflated, recent stats and ignoring everything else.

You’re choosing to see things that way. K/rate bb/rate aren’ta product of league. His numbers are outstanding after adjusting for league. His greatest tool is the one that doesn’t slump.

[brooks_quichenick]

17 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Well apparently people can rip clancy's list at will but when they compile their lists in the exact same fashion, relying heavily on stats that can be Googled in 30 seconds, it's off limits for anyone to offer a differing perspective.

You have no idea how anyone else compiled their lists. You could try asking others about their thought process or why they like a guy more than you do instead of insulting people's intelligence and being condescending. It's a prospect ranking list, some guys like certain types of players more than others. It's fine.

[CheeseheadInQC]

15 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Well apparently people can rip clancy's list at will but when they compile their lists in the exact same fashion, relying heavily on stats that can be Googled in 30 seconds, it's off limits for anyone to offer a differing perspective.

Eh, personally I've always thought some of the Clancy stuff was excessive as well, although I tend to think part of the criticism is more linked to the hyperbole-filled write-ups than the semi-contrarian perspective. As much as I might not agree with his lists, he introduces players into the discussion who get overlooked because they don't really have prospect pedigree because he doesn't seem to care about that at all. An echo chamber is no fun, but that's not what the issue is here.

[TheeAirbender]

My first list here...

1. Jackson Chourio

2. Sal Frelick

3. Jeferson Quero

4. Garrett Mitchell

5. Brice Turang

6. Robert Gasser

7. Tyler Black

8. Joey Wiemer

9. Esteury Ruiz

10. Hendry Mendez

11. Ethan Small

12. Felix Valerio

13. Luis Lara

14. Jacob Misiorowski

15. Eduardo Garcia

16. Justin Jarvis

17. Eric Brown Jr.

18. Hedbert Perez

19. Carlos Rodriguez (RHP)

20. Abner Uribe

[Eye Black]

9 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

My contribution is to encourage people to take a second look if they're ranking Estuary Ruiz ahead of the likes of Garrett Mitchell, Bruce Turang, Joey Wiemer, and Jackson Chourio, as multiple people have on one if not all of these guys. I get that he's the shiny new toy but do your homework.  C'mon guys, as fans and close followers of this team, we should be able to crank out a pretty good prospect list and this one is already on it's way to being a mess and clancy hasn't even posted his list yet. I'd really like to say something stronger about any list that doesn't have Jackson Chourio #1, but I'll show some restraint.

 

2 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Always shooting down discussion because it doesn't go along with your beliefs. Good debate never gets off the ground here. Everyone just posting their lists with zero discussion is real deep stuff.

If you’re looking to start a meaningfully engaging discussion here this wasn’t the best start, IMO. If you don’t think Ruiz is as good as others you could’ve simply posted, “I was surprised to see how high some people have Ruiz, this is why I would have him lower…” Let’s be honest here, none of us is the authority on precisely being able to rank these players in a way that won’t eventually look a little silly with the benefit of hindsight. It’s an exercise to have fun with, and discussion sharing our individual thought processes is certainly welcome. If you want to engage good discussion by all means please do so, but maybe cut out the part where you tell others to “do your homework.”

[Robocaller]

My long list had 54 players. I feel pretty good about the depth in the system. Biggest lack is a top of the rotation pitcher. The guys I picked 15-20 were pretty arbitrary--there are at least 10 other guys who could have been slotted in that range, but didn't make my short list.

1) Chourio OF

2) Frelick OF

3) Wiemer OF

4) Ruiz OF

5) Turang SS

6) Mitchell OF

7) Gasser P

8. Black 2b

9) Small P

10 Brown SS

11) Misiorowski P

12) Y. Perez 1B-OF

13) Feliciano C

14) Quero C

15) Valerio 2B

16) Avina OF

17) Reetz C

18) H. Perez OF

19) E. Garcia SS

20) Mogollon P

 

 

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Always shooting down discussion because it doesn't go along with your beliefs. Good debate never gets off the ground here. Everyone just posting their lists with zero discussion is real deep stuff.

What makes you think this is the thread to argue down other people's rankings?
It's to take a poll to generate an average prospect ranking. One person's odd selections won't change the average very much.

And looking back in the thread, you haven't even posted your own list.

 

[LouisEly]

1	S. Frelick
2	J. Chourio
3	B. Turang
4	G. Mitchell
5	T. Black
6	E. Ruiz
7	J. Wiemer
8	E. Small
9	R. Gasser
10	J. Quero
11	J. Misiorowski
12	E. Brown
13	J. Jarvis
14	F. Valerio
15	J. Reetz
16	C. Devanney
17	C. Robinson
18	C.F. Rodriguez (P)
19	V. Castaneda
20	R. Smith
21	M. Sanchez
22	H. Perez
23	St. Cruz
24	M. Feliciano
25	A. Uribe
26	R. Moore
27	E. Garcia
28	E. W. Martinez
29	H. Mendez
30	J. Avina
31	T.J. Shook

[Eye Black]

1. Jackson Chourio
2. Sal Frelick
3. Joey Wiemer
4. Garrett Mitchell
5. Jeferson Quero
6. Esteury Ruiz
7. Brice Turang 
8. Tyler Black
9. Robert Gasser
10. Jacob Misiorowski
11. Eric Brown Jr.
12. Ethan Small 
13. Hendry Mendez
14. Felix Valerio
15. Justin Jarvis
16. Hedbert Perez
17. Eduardo Garcia
18. Jadher Areinamo
19. Jace Avina
20. Luis Castillo

[RedStickBrew]

Very pleased to see some well deserved prospect love for Cam Devanney from a few posters.  I personally had him ranked just outside the top 20.  He had a rough start to the year but has bounced back and flashed some power as well. No idea what the defensive metrics say about him but he looks really slick with the glove in person.  With the outfielders recently promoted its his time to shine in Biloxi.

[jay87shot]

1) Chorio, He will be in mlb top 10 by the end of year.

2)Frelick, He will be top 25 by end of the year.

3) Weimer, this is a hard chose between Turang, Ruiz, Mitchell, and Weimer. Power prevails.

4) Ruiz, Speed prevails

5) Mitchell, He has been very good the past month.

6)Turang, always forgotten, should be the starting 2B opening day 2023 in my opinion.

7)Quero, I could make the case that all of this top 7 could potential be in the mlb top 100 if they play well the rest of the way.

8)Black, Seems like he has a higher floor and if some power develops could be more.

9)Small, Not great at MLB but still our top pitching prospect, in my eyes.

10)Gasser, seems like a guy who should be similar to Lauer when developed.

11) Misiorowski, 6'7" 190 and can hit 100, 1st low floor type prospect, Will take longer to develop. imo

12)Mendez, Mendez, Perez, and Garcia all in the same category for me.

13) Perez, Needs to make better contact, however the tools are there.

14) Garcia, a year older than the other 2 so he slots in here.

15)Feliciano, Some more power would be nice, but has recovered nicely.

16)Brown, I am not overly hyped but if we took him in the 1st, so he can rise up my list quickly.

17)Cam Robinson, really great year. Gets bumped down a bit because he doesn't start. 

18) Valerio, Showing more power and less contact than I would have though.

19)Castaneda, I can never quite get a great read on him. One month I think top 20, the next not in top 30.

20)Reetz, 25 HR in 77 games at catcher. Enough said

21)Jace Avina, Showing out in rookie ball, promotion needed.

22)Justin Jarvis, has been really good the past month or 2.

23)Brandon Knarr, 1 guy I haven't seen a lot of video. Good year

24) Cornielle, like Knarr not a lot I've seen. But 20 and throwing it well in A ball.

25)Lutz, Almost lost hope bit still only 23, may be massively blocked though.

26)Zamora, slow starting and injury drop him a bunch.

27)Arienamo, looks like some potental here. Maybe a Valerio type 

28)Robert Moore, seems like a good bet to be a utility guy down the line.

29)Steven Cruz, another I haven't seen alot about but going on a solid year.

30) Joe Gray, probably the most disappointing year, hopefully the eyesight thing helps.

[RWeeksFan23]

17 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

My contribution is to encourage people to take a second look if they're ranking Estuary Ruiz ahead of the likes of Garrett Mitchell, Bruce Turang, Joey Wiemer, and Jackson Chourio, as multiple people have on one if not all of these guys. I get that he's the shiny new toy but do your homework.  C'mon guys, as fans and close followers of this team, we should be able to crank out a pretty good prospect list and this one is already on it's way to being a mess and clancy hasn't even posted his list yet. I'd really like to say something stronger about any list that doesn't have Jackson Chourio #1, but I'll show some restraint.

I feel the exact opposite, I have no idea how anyone can rank guys like Turang or Weimer ahead of Ruiz.

[UpandIn]

15 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

There are 2 giant red flags that should give people pause but clearly isn't. El Paso/San Antonio and small sample. Is a single person generating their ranking looking at Ruiz's previous seasons? Your not accounting for the whole sum of data on all of these guys. Your basing everything on some wild, environment inflated, recent stats and ignoring everything else.

Maybe a 3rd little...miniature red yard flag(not the full sized one, but another flag) would be his 70MPH exit velocity in 22 balls put in play in his little cup of coffee thus far. 1 "hard hit" ball. 

And then I'd probably argue given what the Brewers are throwing out there at CF...AND the fact that they're currently sitting a top 100 prospect in either Frelick, Weimer or Mitchell...I'd think if he was as good as has been suggested by some, he'd likely be patrolling CF. It could save from what APPEARS to be a disastrous deadline based on fan perception. You're at least now selling it as "we got a young CF who's going to help out right now and a reliever who's been an All-Star."

 

I mean...if you believe the results in AA and AAA are legit, not a whole lot left to prove. So the league, the soft contact(VERY small sample of course) and then the very average results from '18 up until '22. 

 

And Jackson Chourio has a very real chance to be the #1 prospect in baseball for multiple years like a Wander Franco. Already 3rd on Keith Law's list. But Frelick or Weimer, I understand they're closer and people value that more. I value upside more than anything personally, but I get that. 

 

[Eye Black]

5 hours ago, UpandIn said:

Maybe a 3rd little...miniature red yard flag(not the full sized one, but another flag) would be his 70MPH exit velocity in 22 balls put in play in his little cup of coffee thus far. 1 "hard hit" ball. 

And then I'd probably argue given what the Brewers are throwing out there at CF...AND the fact that they're currently sitting a top 100 prospect in either Frelick, Weimer or Mitchell...I'd think if he was as good as has been suggested by some, he'd likely be patrolling CF. It could save from what APPEARS to be a disastrous deadline based on fan perception. You're at least now selling it as "we got a young CF who's going to help out right now and a reliever who's been an All-Star."

I mean...if you believe the results in AA and AAA are legit, not a whole lot left to prove. So the league, the soft contact(VERY small sample of course) and then the very average results from '18 up until '22. 

Thanks for bringing this up, I agree that the light contact at the major league level is one of the things that gave me a bit of pause before ultimately placing him at #5 on my Brewers prospects list. Both Eno Sarris and Mike Petriello recently made comments about how weak his contact was at the MLB level this year. Eno mentioned Ruiz reminded him of Raimel Tapia, and Petriello said he has “80 speed with just 10 power on a scouting scale that only goes down to 20.” From what I could tell they both were basing their comments strictly off of his Statcast data from the brief MLB stint this year. It doesn’t exactly square with both his statistical production or his scouting reports from the minors where average power has been mentioned as one of his positive traits. The FanGraphs write up even included a comparison to Alfonso Soriano who had more than 400 career MLB home runs (Note: I certainly don’t expect that sort of power from Ruiz). 

I have also heard speculation that he struggles with high velocity up in the zone and does a lot of damage punishing mistake breaking pitches. I have no idea how well founded those comments are, but I guess something to watch for going forward.

My biggest concern with Ruiz is that I think his profile is a lot more valuable in center field than an outfield corner. It sounds like learning to play centerfield has been a bit of a bumpy ride for him (reportedly got some poor jumps and inefficient routes), but that’s also somewhat to be expected while learning to play a new position. I think it was a good sign that they had him playing in CF for the Sounds last night, but it also seems like Nashville will be a log jam to get innings in CF due to Sal Frelick also deserving reps there. 

One thing I am convinced of with the Brewers is they target minor league guys that do well in their internal statistical model. While it’s no longer publicly available because he works for the Twins, Chris Mitchell’s KATOH seemingly closely aligned with the Brewers own model. Over the Stearns tenure they’ve acquired several players that were much higher in that KATOH model than the general consensus (even more recently Urias and Adames were inside the top 20 prospects in the KATOH model before it went dark in 2018). I have a feeling Ruiz was another player that likely stood out in the Brewers internal statistical model. 

[Never Outhustled]

22 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

All one has to do it look at the numbers Ruiz has put up across two levels this season as a 23-year-old to justify his high ranking. All these guys are basically the same age. Ruiz has a .337 average, 1.033 OPS, an OBP of .472 (!!!) and 13 dingers to go along with his 60 (!!!) SBs across two levels of the minors. He's a legit stud prospect. 

I agree, but it's important to curve Ruiz's numbers because of the favorable hitting environments he's been in. 

All the OFs we have are really good or great prospects with different strengths.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

14 minutes ago, Never Outhustled said:

I agree, but it's important to curve Ruiz's numbers because of the favorable hitting environments he's been in. 

All the OFs we have are really good or great prospects with different strengths.

Perhaps. But those are full-on video game numbers. It is definitely a great problem to have when you're arguing over which of 4 high-end upper-level OF prospects is the most awesome. And that doesn't even count the mini break-out we are seeing from Lutz this year.

Heck, at this time last year Hedbert Perez had all the helium, and he's almost become an afterthought in the system now.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

7 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Heck, at this time last year Hedbert Perez had all the helium, and he's almost become an afterthought in the system now.

If anything this should be reminder to be wary of sample and environment as I've been mentioning. Carolina is showing just how tough a place it is to hit and all that helium for Hedbert was driven by 32 ACL rookie league games. Perez could be playing his low A games in a different location and perhaps putting up much more encouraging numbers right now. That's factored in. And he's still just 19.

[Manty Brewer Fan]

1.       Jackson Chourio – Top 3 in minors by year end universally

2.       Sal Frelick – Top 35ish

3.       Joey Wiemer – top 75

4.       Jeferson Quero – Borderline top 100

5.       Brice Turang – Borderline top 100

6.       Garrett Mitchell – Borderline top 100

7.       Tyler Black – Borderline top 100

8.       Jacob Misiorowski

9.       Esteury Ruiz

10.   Eric Brown Jr.

11.   Robert Gasser

12.   Luis Lara

13.   Hedbert Perez

14.   Hendry Mendez

15.   Felix Valerio

16.   Robert Moore

17.   Carlos Rodriguez (P)

18.   Logan Henderson

19.   Ethan Small

20.   Eduardo Garcia

21.   Jadher Areinamo

22.   Luis Castillo

23.   Abner Uribe

24.   Jace Avina

25.   Carlos Rodriguez (OF)

26.   Cam Robinson

27.   Darrien Miller

28.   Russel Smith

29.   Joe Gray

30.   Cam Devanney

31.   Stiven Cruz

32.   Victor Castandea

33.   Alexander Cornielle

34.   Mario Feliciano

35.   Justin Jarvis

36.   Brandon Knarr

37.   Jhonny Severino

38.   Daniel Guilarte

39.   Tristen lutz

40.   TJ Shook

[Brewcrew82]

1. Jackson Chourio

2. Sal Frelick

3. Brice Turang

4. Garrett Mitchell

5. Joey Wiemer

6. Jeferson Quero

7. Robert Gasser

8. Jacob Misiorowski

9. Tyler Black

10. Eric Brown Jr.

11. Esteury Ruiz

12. Henry Mendez

13. Ethan Small

14. Eduardo Garcia

15. Mario Feliciano

16. Felix Valerio

17. Hedbert Perez

18. Carlos Rodriguez

19. Stiven Cruz

20. Logan Henderson 

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, Never Outhustled said:

I agree, but it's important to curve Ruiz's numbers because of the favorable hitting environments he's been in. 

All the OFs we have are really good or great prospects with different strengths.

The stats that adjust for league/ballpark for Ruiz are still excellent.  Iirc, someone posted that he had a 146 RC+.

[Robocaller]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

1. Jackson Chourio

2. Sal Frelick

3. Joey Wiemer

4. Garrett Mitchell

5. Brice Turang

6. Jeferson Quero

7. Robert Gasser

8. Tyler Black

9. Esteury Ruiz

10. Ethan Small

11. Eric Brown Jr. 

12. Henry Mendez

13. Felix Valerio

14. Eduardo Garcia

15. Mario Feliciano

16. Hedbert Perez

17. Jacob Misiorowski

18. Carlos Rodriguez

19. Stiven Cruz

20. Hedbert Perez

You have two Hedbert Perez's. Did you mean Y. Perez for one of them?

[Robocaller]

2 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

If anything this should be reminder to be wary of sample and environment as I've been mentioning. Carolina is showing just how tough a place it is to hit and all that helium for Hedbert was driven by 32 ACL rookie league games. Perez could be playing his low A games in a different location and perhaps putting up much more encouraging numbers right now. That's factored in. And he's still just 19.

His performance in "32 ACL. . .games" wouldn't have raised him so high if scouts, etc. hadn't evaluated him so well.  He can still crush the ball. 

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

You have two Hedbert Perez's. Did you mean Y. Perez for one of them?

Thanks for the catch! Have substituted Logan Henderson for one of the Hedbert Perez's lol

[tbbrewers]

1.  Jackson Chourio

2.  Sal Frelick

3.  Brice Turang

4.  Garrett Mitchell

5.  Joey Wiemer

6.  Esteury Ruiz

7.  Tyler Black

8.  Robert Gasser

9.  Jeferson Quero

10. Ethan Small

11. Eric Brown Jr.

12.  Felix Valerio

13. Hendry Mendez

14. Luis Lara

15. Jacob Misiorowski

16. Hedbert Perez

17. Joe Gray Jr

18. Mario Feliciano

19. Abner Uribe

20. Justin Jarvis

21. Eduardo Garcia

22. Logan Henderson

23. Carlos Rodriguez (Pitcher)

24. Cam Devanney

25. Cam Robinson

26. Robert Moore

27. Victor Castaneda

28. Jadher Areinano

29. Luis Castillo

30. Stiven Cruz