Time for the August prospect list update!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, y'all, lots of movement this month...

Added: all the draft picks!

Removed: Antoine Kelly (good night, sweet prince)

We'll set a deadline for submissions for 8/8 Monday evening, let's say 9pm.

[BallFour]

1. CF-Sal Frelick

2. CF-Esteury Ruiz

3. CF-Jackson Chourio

4. C-Jeferson Quero

5. SS-Brice Turang

6. RF-Joey Wiemer

7. LHP-Robert Gasser

8. CF-Garrett Mitchell

9. 2B-Felix Valerio

10. 2B-Tyler Black

11. LHP-Ethan Small

12. SS-Eric Brown, Jr.

13. RHP-Jacob Misiorowski

14. C-Mario Feliciano

15. RF-Hendry Mendez

16. OF-Hedbert Perez

17. SS-Eduardo Garcia

18. RHP-Victor Castaneda

19. RHP-Justin Jarvis

20. RHP-Abner Uribe

[brooks_quichenick]

1. Jackson Chourio (OF)

2. Sal Frelick (OF)

3. Joey Wiemer (OF)

4. Brice Turang (SS/2B)

5. Tyler Black (2B/3B)

6. Garrett Mitchell (OF)

7. Esteury Ruiz (OF)

8. Robert Gasser (P)

9. Jeferson Quero (C)

10. Justin Jarvis (P)

11. Hendry Mendez (OF)

12. Eduardo Garcia (SS)

13. Jacob Misiorowski (P) 

14. Hedbert Perez (OF)

15. Mario Feliciano (C)

16. Ethan Small (P)

17. Eric Brown Jr. (SS)

18. Felix Valerio (2B)

19. Stiven Cruz (P)

20. Carlos F. Rodriguez (P)

[RedStickBrew]

1. OF- Sal Frelick

2.OF- Jackson Chourio

3. OF- Esteury Ruiz

4. OF- Garrett Mitchell

5. P- Robert Gasser

6. INF- Brice Turang

7. OF- Joey Weimer

8. C- Jeferson Quero

9. P- Jacob Misiorowski

10.  INF- Tyler Black

11. INF- Eric Brown Jr.

12. OF- Hendry Mendez

13. INF- Eduardo Garcia

14. P- Victor Casteneda

15. P- Ethan Small

16. OF- Hedbert Perez

17. P- Justin Jarvis

18. C- Mario Feliciano

19. INF- Jadher Areinamo

20. OF- Luis Castillo

 

 

 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I always struggle with slotting the recent draft picks as I like to see them play a little before I get too excited about them.  Looks like I have them slotted similarly with the rest of this group so far.  Mid teens for the first two picks seems about right to me.

1    Sal Frelick
2    Jackson Chourio
3    Joey Wiemer
4    Brice Turang
5    Ethan Small
6    Estuary Ruiz
7    Garrett Mitchell
8    Robert Gasser
9    Jeferson Quero
10    Felix Valerio
11    Tyler Black
12    Eduardo Garcia
13    Hendry Mendez
14    Hedbert Perez
15    Eric Brown
16    Jacob Misiorowski
17    Tristan Lutz
18    Mario Feliciano
19    Joe Gray Jr
20    Victor Castaneda
21    Freddy Zamora
22    Brandon Knarr
23    Carlos Rodriguez (P)
24    Stiven Cruz
25    Abner Uribe
26    Cam Devanney
27    Justin Jarvis
28    Alexander Cornielle
29    Cam Robinson
30    TJ Shook

[Jenkins5]

1. CF  Jackson Chourio

2. CF  Sal Frelick

3. RF  Joey Weimer

4. LHP Ethan Small

5. CF  Garrett Mitchell

6. LHP Robert Gasser

7. SS   Brice Turang

8. CF  Esteury Ruiz

9. C   Jeferson Quero

10. 2B  Tyler Black

11. OF Hendry Mendez

12. RHP Jacob Misiorowski

13. 2B Felix Valerio

14.  Eric Brown Jr. 

15.  RHP Justin Jarvis

16. SS Eduardo Garcia

17. OF Hedbert Perez

18. RHP Carlos Rodriquez

19. IF Jadher Areinamo

20. RHP Stevin Cruz

[CheeseheadInQC]

Being the self-indulgent guy who goes to 50 again. Very little separation between 15-35. Jackson Chourio, OF Sal Frelick, OF Brice Turang, SS Jeferson Quero, C Joey Wiemer, OF Estuary Ruiz, OF Robert Gasser, P Tyler Black, 2B Garrett Mitchell, OF Jacob Misiorowski, P Eric Brown, SS Ethan Small, P Hendry Mendez, OF Jadher Areinamo, SS Stiven Cruz, P Carlos Rodriguez, P Abner Uribe, P Cam Devanney, SS Felix Valerio, 2B Victor Castaneda, P Cam Robinson, P Luis Lara, OF Hedbert Perez, OF Eduardo Garcia, SS Alexander Cornielle, P Mario Feliciano, C Robert Moore, SS Jakson Reetz, C Freddy Zamora, SS Joe Gray, OF Justin Jarvis, P Tristen Lutz, OF Brandon Knarr, P Alexander Vallecillo, P Luis Castillo, OF Russell Smith, P Patricio Aquino, P Johan Barrios, 3B Jhonny Severino, 3B Jace Avina, OF Darrien Miller, C Carlos Rodriguez, OF Logan Henderson, P Israel Puello, P Yujanyer Herrera, P Zavier Warren, 3B Daniel Guilarte, SS Anfernney Reyes, P Matthew Wood, C Noah Campbell, OF

[True Blue Brew Crew]

My contribution is to encourage people to take a second look if they're ranking Estuary Ruiz ahead of the likes of Garrett Mitchell, Bruce Turang, Joey Wiemer, and Jackson Chourio, as multiple people have on one if not all of these guys. I get that he's the shiny new toy but do your homework.  C'mon guys, as fans and close followers of this team, we should be able to crank out a pretty good prospect list and this one is already on it's way to being a mess and clancy hasn't even posted his list yet. I'd really like to say something stronger about any list that doesn't have Jackson Chourio #1, but I'll show some restraint.

[igor67]

I do think a reasonable case can be made for Frelick at number 1 and then Chourio depending on how one weighs ceiling vs. closeness to majors. That A ball to AA jump is still a pretty big deal, and Frelick has been showing his own hit tool like crazy at AA and now AAA.

[CheeseheadInQC]

48 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

My contribution is to encourage people to take a second look if they're ranking Estuary Ruiz ahead of the likes of Garrett Mitchell, Bruce Turang, Joey Wiemer, and Jackson Chourio, as multiple people have on one if not all of these guys. I get that he's the shiny new toy but do your homework.  C'mon guys, as fans and close followers of this team, we should be able to crank out a pretty good prospect list and this one is already on it's way to being a mess and clancy hasn't even posted his list yet. I'd really like to say something stronger about any list that doesn't have Jackson Chourio #1, but I'll show some restraint.

I’m good, thanks.

Everyone has their own things they look for and that concern them. For instance by talent and performance Mitchell would probably be No. 4 for me, but the amount of time he has missed with injuries sparks availability concerns.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

56 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

My contribution is to encourage people to take a second look if they're ranking Estuary Ruiz ahead of the likes of Garrett Mitchell, Bruce Turang, Joey Wiemer, and Jackson Chourio, as multiple people have on one if not all of these guys. I get that he's the shiny new toy but do your homework.  C'mon guys, as fans and close followers of this team, we should be able to crank out a pretty good prospect list and this one is already on it's way to being a mess and clancy hasn't even posted his list yet. I'd really like to say something stronger about any list that doesn't have Jackson Chourio #1, but I'll show some restraint.

All one has to do it look at the numbers Ruiz has put up across two levels this season as a 23-year-old to justify his high ranking. All these guys are basically the same age. Ruiz has a .337 average, 1.033 OPS, an OBP of .472 (!!!) and 13 dingers to go along with his 60 (!!!) SBs across two levels of the minors. He's a legit stud prospect. 

[RedStickBrew]

1 hour ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

My contribution is to encourage people to take a second look if they're ranking Estuary Ruiz ahead of the likes of Garrett Mitchell, Bruce Turang, Joey Wiemer, and Jackson Chourio, as multiple people have on one if not all of these guys. I get that he's the shiny new toy but do your homework.  C'mon guys, as fans and close followers of this team, we should be able to crank out a pretty good prospect list and this one is already on it's way to being a mess and clancy hasn't even posted his list yet. I'd really like to say something stronger about any list that doesn't have Jackson Chourio #1, but I'll show some restraint.

All of these prospects are in my top 7 and I love them all.  I put Ruiz above Weimer and Mitchell because of the difference in the K rates mostly and above Turang because of OPS.

[BlazingGunz]

Rank	Player	Position
1	Jackson Chourio	OF
2	Sal Frelick	OF
3	Brice Turang	SS
4	Estuary Ruiz	OF
5	Joey Wiemer	OF
6	Garrett Mitchell	OF
7	Robert Gasser	P
8	Tyler Black	2B
9	Jeferson Quero	C
10	Eric Brown	SS
11	Hedbert Perez	OF
12	Ethan Small	P
13	Jacob Misiorowski	P
14	Felix Valerio	2B
15	Hendry Mendez	OF
16	Eduardo Garcia	SS
17	Justin Jarvis	P
18	Cam Devanney	SS
19	Mario Feliciano	C
20	Freddy Zamora	SS
21	Robert Moore	SS
22	Abner Uribe	P
23	Russell Smith	P
24	Tristen Lutz	OF
25	Victor Castaneda	P
26	Jakson Reetz	C
27	Joe Gray	OF
28	Jace Avina	OF
29	Carlos Rodriguez	OF
30	Logan Henderson	P

[True Blue Brew Crew]

There are 2 giant red flags that should give people pause but clearly isn't. El Paso/San Antonio and small sample. Is a single person generating their ranking looking at Ruiz's previous seasons? Your not accounting for the whole sum of data on all of these guys. Your basing everything on some wild, environment inflated, recent stats and ignoring everything else.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

1 hour ago, RedStickBrew said:

All of these prospects are in my top 7 and I love them all.  I put Ruiz above Weimer and Mitchell because of the difference in the K rates mostly and above Turang because of OPS.

Did you weigh what the OPS of Mitchell, Turang, Weimer might look like if they were playing in Texas League or Pacific Coast League instead of the Southern League or International League? Because it matters...a lot.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

All one has to do it look at the numbers Ruiz has put up across two levels this season as a 23-year-old to justify his high ranking. All these guys are basically the same age. Ruiz has a .337 average, 1.033 OPS, an OBP of .472 (!!!) and 13 dingers to go along with his 60 (!!!) SBs across two levels of the minors. He's a legit stud prospect. 

You of all people should know how where a minor leaguer plays their games can inflate a prospect's stats and lead to unrealistic expectations and overrating.

<cough> Joey Meyer </cough>

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'm not even saying Ruiz isn't a legit prospect. But let's see how he stacks up in the same environment as prospects with a much stronger pedigree and track record before we assume he's surpassed than some of the better prospects we already had. If he maintains these numbers in Nashville it will be very exciting yes, but I don't think everyone understands how much of a feat that would be to maintain those El Paso numbers in Nashville.

If too many start going only as deep as some gaudy, out of context stats, then we've got a multitude doing the same thing clancy is mocked for.

[RedStickBrew]

1 hour ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Did you weigh what the OPS of Mitchell, Turang, Weimer might look like if they were playing in Texas League or Pacific Coast League instead of the Southern League or International League? Because it matters...a lot.

Yes.  As I stated it was the difference in K rates between Ruiz, Weimer and Mitchell that I gave a slight edge to Ruiz, not OPS.  I believe the current difference in OPS between Turang and Ruiz is some 250+ points.  I know the OPS inflation varies quite a bit from park to park and player to player, but that is still pretty significant. By the way, I don't disagree that I may be overvaluing him a prospect a bit- but I still like his profile and tools.

[CheeseheadInQC]

2 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

There are 2 giant red flags that should give people pause but clearly isn't. El Paso/San Antonio and small sample. Is a single person generating their ranking looking at Ruiz's previous seasons? Your not accounting for the whole sum of data on all of these guys. Your basing everything on some wild, environment inflated, recent stats and ignoring everything else.

The approach change and accompanying walk and strikeout rates seem genuine even if the OPS is obviously inflated. Once you get by the top two, each come with question marks. Can Ruiz manage to wed some of his previous harder contact with the new walk and strikeout rates? Is Turang the guy we’ve seen recently or the one who couldn’t buy an extra-base hit for a month? Is Wiemer’s slump injury related or is streakiness just going to be a part of his game and can he keep the K rate manageable? Can Mitchell stay healthy and can he turn enough of the ground balls into line drives to take advantage of his power? It is just about which outcomes you see as most likely.

[sveumrules]

01 Jackson Chourio

02 Sal Frelick

03 Joey Wiemer

04 Brice Turang

05 Garrett Mitchell

06 Esteury Ruiz

07 Ethan Small

08 Robert Gasser

09 Tyler Black 

10 Jeferson Quero

11 Eric Brown Jr.

12 Felix Valerio

13 Hendry Mendez 

14 Eduardo Garcia

15 Hedbert Perez

16 Mario Feliciano

17 Carlos Rodriguez PITCHER

18 Stiven Cruz

19 Kevin Briceno

20 Luis Castillo

[sveumrules]

Coming into the season Ruiz has 1695 PAs from R to AA with 124 BBs (7.3%) and 404 Ks (23.8%).

This year in AA/AAA Esteury has 379 PAs with 54 BBs (14.2%) and 65 Ks (17.2%).

No doubt, playing in hitters parks has helped his stat line this year, but so has overhauling his approach. Minor league ballparks are hopefully temporary, a guy's plate approach is a lot stickier.

[Eye Black]

20 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

There are 2 giant red flags that should give people pause but clearly isn't. El Paso/San Antonio and small sample. Is a single person generating their ranking looking at Ruiz's previous seasons? Your not accounting for the whole sum of data on all of these guys. Your basing everything on some wild, environment inflated, recent stats and ignoring everything else.

First, let's knock off the negative commentary on other people's rankings in this thread. It's unnecessary, people are allowed to determine for themselves how they choose to rank players. 

The period where he really struggled was 3+ years ago. Also, some of his improvement stems from things not impacted by park factors. He obviously didn't play in 2020 due to the pandemic, but since then he's cut his strike out rate and swinging strike rate significantly, as well as improved his walk rate, over the past two years. 

If Esteury Ruiz is simply a product of his home stadium environment over the past two years then it's a little curious that he's actually been better on the road over that time. 

2021 Splits

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP
Home	37	146	128	13	28	2	1	2	17	13	2	11	24	.219	.308	.297	.605	38	0	6
Away	47	207	181	39	49	14	1	8	25	23	4	17	49	.271	.342	.492	.833	89	3	3

2022 Splits

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP
Home	47	205	164	40	55	12	1	3	21	43	5	27	27	.335	.458	.476	.934	78	1	11
Away	45	201	157	45	50	12	2	10	27	18	8	27	43	.319	.452	.612	1.063	96	1	12

Again, it seems like a strange conclusion that El Paso and San Antonio are responsible for inflating his stats. He was basically a league average hitter in 2021 and so far in 2022 has been well above league average (177 wRC+ in Double-A and 146 wRC+ in Triple-A).

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Always shooting down discussion because it doesn't go along with your beliefs. Good debate never gets off the ground here. Everyone just posting their lists with zero discussion is real deep stuff.

[CheeseheadInQC]

26 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Always shooting down discussion because it doesn't go along with your beliefs. Good debate never gets off the ground here. Everyone just posting their lists with zero discussion is real deep stuff.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I'll gladly defend any part of my list if you ask. I think the issue at least I had with your initial comment was that it seemed more interested in ripping other people's opinions than either explaining your own or inquiring why they thought differently.

[brooks_quichenick]

39 minutes ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Always shooting down discussion because it doesn't go along with your beliefs. Good debate never gets off the ground here. Everyone just posting their lists with zero discussion is real deep stuff.

The best way to start a discussion is always to be as condescending as possible about how wrong every one else's opinions are.