Which prospects have we really missed?

[Frisbee Slider]

In the past 20 years, how many prospects have we traded where we genuinely regret missing out on their major league production? The list below are some recent prospect trades:

• Cooper Hummel for Eduardo Escobar
• JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen for Willie Adames
• Mauricio Dubon for Drew Pomeranz
• Jesus Aguilar for Jacob Faria
  • Seems like a bust
• Cody Ponce for Jordan Lyles
• Kodi Medeiros for Joakim Soria 
• Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez for Mike Moustakas
• Brinson, Yamamoto, Harrison and Diaz for. Yellich
• Garrett Cooper for Tyler Webb
  • Cooper has been pretty good
• Khris Davis for Jacob Nottingham and Bubba Derby
• Luis Sardinas for Ramon Flores
• Mitch Haniger and Anthony Banda for Gerardo Parra
  • Haniger is usually productive
• Nicky Delmonico for K-Rod
• Jake Odorizzi and Lorenzo Cain for Zach Greinke
• Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum
• JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez
• Cole Gillespie for Felipe Lopez
• Michael Brantley & Matt LaPorta for CC Sabathia
• Nelson Cruz and Carlos Lee for Francisco Cordero and Kevin Mench

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It stands to reason that the team who procured the prospect has a better read, feel, and intel on him than the team trading for him. Sure there's the occasional Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trade, but the reality is the team trading the major leaguer is typically trying to salvage something for an asset set to depart and is essentially collecting lottery tickets. The further away from free agency an existing major league asset is, the better the lottery tickets should be (Soto). But the majority of trades are for half season rentals and thus the majority of the prospects exchanging hands are further away from being sure things.

It's equally hard to find many deals where the Brewers traded the rental major leaguer for lottery tickets and found anything of consequence. But when it hits, it's pretty darn great (Lind for 3 tickets, one of who was Freddy Peralta).

For the most part the trades where more sure thing prospects get dealt are prospect for prospect trades and deals where the major leaguer getting sent out has multiple years of control. If you're letting teams poach a prospect from you that is a future star, for say a Josh Bell, you're internal scouting is a mess.

[MVP2110]

Haniger is the one who stands although we got decent production from Parra and then flipped him for Davies so it wasn't awful. The Garrett Cooper & Khris Davis trades are probably the only 2 clear losses on that list. 

[owbc]

Nelson Cruz hit 457 HR after we traded him + El Caballo for Kevin Mench and Francisco Cordero…

We got Cruz for essentially free (Keith Ginter lol) so maybe it’s a zero sum game, but that one really hurts because Boomstick was a true star right when we were going on our playoff runs. 

[Brewin]

I also believe Cruz was DFA'd after we traded him, so any team could have had him for free. IMO it's tough to hold that against the Brewers when literally the whole league passed on him before he broke out

[djoctagone]

not a trade, but putting zack godley on the roster last year came at the expense of phil bickford being claimed.

[djoctagone]

32 minutes ago, Brewin said:

I also believe Cruz was DFA'd after we traded him, so any team could have had him for free.

nelson cruz did clear outright waivers in 2008 after failing to make the rangers' roster out of spring training. i believe at the time, waiver claims cost the claiming team $20,000.

[Jopal78]

Obviously the three biggest prospects the Brewers traded away are Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Brantley. All of them all stars with at least ten year careers. 

The real question is would anyone rather have those three players than the ride the team gave its fans in 2008 or 2011?

More over, I'm sure the Brewers are happy with Willy Adames, but 5+ years of two pitchers will almost certainly be worth more WAR than 5+ years of Adames. But like the others above, its something the team probably would do again in an instant. 

[folly412]

Missed, as in they would have been a contributor based on how they performed not long after being traded: Feyereisen, Rasmussen, Cooper, Davis, Haniger, Odorizza, Cain, Brantley, Cruz.

Missed, as in the trade wasn't worth it based on both how they performed and what we got in return: Cooper, Haniger.  Perhaps Cruz, depending on the whole waivers/could have had him back if we wanted thing.

 

[sveumrules]

3 hours ago, djoctagone said:

not a trade, but putting zack godley on the roster last year came at the expense of phil bickford being claimed.

Phil followed up his 51 IP of 2.81 ERA / 3.93 FIP relief work last year with 35 IP of 5.05 ERA / 4.43 FIP this year before being demoted.

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, folly412 said:

Missed, as in they would have been a contributor based on how they performed not long after being traded: Feyereisen, Rasmussen, Cooper, Davis, Haniger, Odorizza, Cain, Brantley, Cruz.

Missed, as in the trade wasn't worth it based on both how they performed and what we got in return: Cooper, Haniger.  Perhaps Cruz, depending on the whole waivers/could have had him back if we wanted thing.

 

Even with Haniger he begat Parra who begat Davies who begat Urias, so he is still kinda paying off all these years later.

When Cooper was dealt we had Thames/Aguilar raking & under control for years to come. My only complaint is I wish we would have gotten the return the Yankees got from the Marlins (Michael King) instead of the return we got from the Yankees (Ty Webb). 

[jackmadden]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Obviously the three biggest prospects the Brewers traded away are Lorenzo Cain, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Brantley. All of them all stars with at least ten year careers. 

The real question is would anyone rather have those three players than the ride the team gave its fans in 2008 or 2011?

More over, I'm sure the Brewers are happy with Willy Adames, but 5+ years of two pitchers will almost certainly be worth more WAR than 5+ years of Adames. But like the others above, its something the team probably would do again in an instant. 

At the time, I remember being really excited for getting Greinke because we needed pitching and we were trying to make a last run with Fielder. However, I still think going all-in in 2011 was a mistake and that we should have traded Fielder when the Giants were willing to give up Bumgarner for him (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/486451-mlb-trade-rumors-prince-fielder-and-the-san-francisco-giants-are-a-perfect-fit).

Not trading Fielder in 2010 and then going all-in in 2011 gave us a really good run for 2011, but then some really bad teams in the next couple of seasons. I think that 2010-11 run for Melvin looks really bad in hindsight, especially when the Royals end up winning in 2015 with Escobar and Cain being key contributors for them.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Dealing Cooper for Webb really ticked me off at the time.

The deal with Texas was a little weird because it was one of Melvins' "help us now & later" deals. But it was in the era where you would overpay for closers compared to now. Gave up too much in retrospect but as Brewin pointed out, no one saw Cruz coming on the way he did.

Would like to have gotten more for Davis, but the guy was such a detriment with the glove/arm & we had no DH in the league at the time.

I remember during the Sabathia rumors, I was OK with LaPorta going but hoped we could somehow spin the deal w/o including Brantley. Still would've made the deal, but you just knew Brantley was head & shoulders above.

[Outlander]

Brantley by a landslide, in an alternate universe the Indians went with Green instead and Brantley was a longtime Brewer. I really don't think the Brewers ever intended to give Cruz a real chance.