Article: Round Table: Do You Like the Josh Hader Trade?

[John Bonnes]

We asked a few or our writers for their initial reactions and to breakdown the trade that send Josh Hader away from the Brewers during a NL Central division race. Here were their reactions.

Tommy Ciacciio

"It finally happened" is a weird way to start a conversation about something that feels counterintuitive and inorganic. I understand that the identity of the closer is outsized relative to their actual value. That said, since the moment Josh Hader was acquired for Carlos Gomez all those years ago, he's been inextricably attached to the identity of the Brewers as fearless small market titans who are perpetually competitive. 

It's rational to react negatively when the author of so many emotional moments is abruptly and permanently absent from the role you've associated them with for years. It's important to take a birds-eye view of the situation and assess whether or not those emotions have purchase when considering the trade's effect on the team. And my (unsolicited) objective, sterile and emotionless opinion? They do not. 

Sports are about the moment. As much as the spindly flamethrowing Josh Hader may have appeared nearly superhuman in his dominance, the metrics don't suggest irreplaceability. The most immediately useful piece is Taylor Rogers. An All-Star last year, Rogers doesn't have what it takes to replace Hader directly, but he does have what it takes to set up for Devin Williams, who hasn't allowed a run since May 10th.

Dinelson Lamet is the player with the second most major league experience. While less effective due to a series of injuries, he is only two years separated from a fourth place Cy Young finish. 

And then there is Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz to complete the trade. A pitching and outfield prospect respectively, each comes with an exciting high ceiling. Gasser is a crafty control pitcher who, despite not having dominating velocity, has managed a 30.5% strikeout rate. The speedy Ruiz maintained a gaudy .450 OBP in double and triple-A over 374 plate appearances.

There are worse problems than being loaded with a bastion of young, elite talent, but with elite talent comes commensurate paydays. The Brewers will soon be forced to navigate paydays for Woodruff and Burnes, Adames and Urias. Investing heavily in a one-inning asset, even one of historical domination, just wasn't tenable. Fortunately, the savvy Stearns regime has found a way to trade him for a hefty bounty and remain at least as close to competitive as they were Monday morning. 

Kyle Ginsbach
I'll admit I was initially shocked when the trade was first broken. After the initial shock died down, I was on board. 

I think what many fans are missing with this deal is the real value of the return. Though Rogers isn't the same caliber as Hader, he's a proven major league reliever, and the Brewers might not even ask him to close.

Neither Ruiz nor Lament are proven big leaguers, but both ooze with potential. Ruiz boasted an OPS over 1.000 and stole over 60 bags in AAA this year. Lament arguably boasts Cy-Young caliber stuff when he's healthy and has command. Though Gasser's numbers don't jump off the page, any pitcher the Brewers front office is high on is worth noting. 

Most Brewer fans are aware of what they're losing, and as hard as it may be to see Hader go, now was probably the right time. More than ever, the Brewers can replace a closer, and there's never a bad time to add young talent.

Obviously, the Brewers are betting they can replace Hader's production and add for the future. If that's the case, I'm sold.

Caswell Dommisse
Do I think the Crew could have gotten more? Probably. But the reliever market has changed so much since that huge Aroldis Chapman trade that brought him to Chicago back in 2016. This trade seems pretty fair overall. 

Rogers and Lamet are both exciting pitchers. Rogers has 28 saves on the year, second to Hader's 29 across the entire MLB, and offers an intriguing approach. His numbers are drastically elevated from one appearance back on June 2nd in Milwaukee, where he took the loss with four earned runs. 

Rogers is a free agent at year's end, but Lamet will be arbitration-eligible for one more season. He has struggled with injuries but has elite stretches. Looking at both of these guys makes it seem like the Padres limit their pitchers quite a bit, as each has decreased their pitch repertoire this season, so both could be a little different than what we've seen thus far. I am wondering what the plan will be with Lamet, who is a better starter than a reliever (3.78 ERA versus 6.90). 

Gasser looks to be quite good, and with the way the Crew has been developing pitchers, I'd be very excited if I were him to work in the pitching lab. I expect him to make a jump shortly and for fans to hear from him soon. He will need to limit the extra-base hits against right-handed batters, who have slugged .457 despite an average of .262. Lefties need to be concerned, though, with only 1(!) extra-base hit, a double, against him and an average of just .216. 

I am underwhelmed about Ruiz, but he has had some really good numbers in the minors this year, so maybe David Stearns sees him filling in that center field gap I talked about in my article a couple of days ago.

Overall, I am very happy with this deal; it gives quite a bit of insight into the general direction the Brewers have as an organization. Rather than draining the farm for one huge run, a sustained attack with many runs where the team hopes to get lucky is critical for a small market team who won't pay those big free agents. 

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[Robocaller]

I think you guys are giving too much credence to Lamet's 4th in the Cy Young voting--it was 2020 and he only had 12 starts.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I think you guys are giving too much credence to Lamet's 4th in the Cy Young voting--it was 2020 and he only had 12 starts.

 

Possibly. The ship has probably sailed on Lamet starting in MLB but I'm more interested in his recent bullpen appearances. If he's truly healthy again - far from a given for any pitcher, much less Lamet - he could be the 6th/7th inning piece the Brewers badly need right now. If he fills that role capably, I'll be quite satisfied.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I think you guys are giving too much credence to Lamet's 4th in the Cy Young voting--it was 2020 and he only had 12 starts.

 

So? Yeah, it was 12 starts, but they were elite-level, and we aren't talking about a super long time ago. Yeah, he's had some injury concerns since then, but the arm talent that made him a high-end prospect is still there.

[brooks_quichenick]

Hoping that Lamet ends up being a Pomeranz-like acquisition for the Crew. His fastball/slider combo is tailor-made for a dominating bullpen arm.

[Tommy Ciaccio]

6 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I think you guys are giving too much credence to Lamet's 4th in the Cy Young voting--it was 2020 and he only had 12 starts.

 

Speaking for myself here, but me bringing up his previous success isn't suggesting that he's bound to be consistently ace-like going forward. I'm simply commenting that he's not far enough removed from dominance that it's unreasonable to think he may be able to exhibit some of that again. 

[wntrtxn21]

Like a lot of fans, I was way off when I thought Stearns could have done a lot better for Hader.  At least they dumped his salary and maybe Ruiz could compete for the CF job next year.  Rogers and Lamet need to drastically turn things around if either is going to help the pen right now. Lamet's ongoing arm/elbow issues has seen him struggle for the last couple of years. He was bad last year after another round of arm problems and has been horrible (9.49 ERA - 2.02 WHIP - 6.6 BBs/9 IPS) this year since he returned from yet another arm injury.  According to the Padre sites, they were getting ready to DFA him.  Rogers hasn't been good for two months (In June/July giving up 16 earned runs and 26 hits in 19 IPs) and had to be removed from high leverage innings.  Next year Rogers will be gone in FA.  Lamet will be making over $5M in arby next year and unless the Brewers can find something the Padres couldn't, I don't see him being around. 

[Caswell]

1 hour ago, wntrtxn21 said:

Like a lot of fans, I was way off when I thought Stearns could have done a lot better for Hader.  At least they dumped his salary and maybe Ruiz could compete for the CF job next year.  Rogers and Lamet need to drastically turn things around if either is going to help the pen right now. Lamet's ongoing arm/elbow issues has seen him struggle for the last couple of years. He was bad last year after another round of arm problems and has been horrible (9.49 ERA - 2.02 WHIP - 6.6 BBs/9 IPS) this year since he returned from yet another arm injury.  According to the Padre sites, they were getting ready to DFA him.  Rogers hasn't been good for two months (In June/July giving up 16 earned runs and 26 hits in 19 IPs) and had to be removed from high leverage innings.  Next year Rogers will be gone in FA.  Lamet will be making over $5M in arby next year and unless the Brewers can find something the Padres couldn't, I don't see him being around. 

Lamet will be really good next year, and those prospects make me feel better and better. They look pretty good. Hader will be making much more than what Lamet will earn, and it opens salary for, may I suggest, a nice little extension to Burnes or Woodruff. I think Rogers will get back to a dominant reliever as well, and will probably save games with Williams depending on the situation.

[Pdubdub29]

Sounds very homer-ish to me. I'm not a fan of the trade. They didn't get any of Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Campusano, Wood, or Merrill.

Rogers: decent for sure, but a FA after this season
Lamet: obviously everyone loved his upside at one point, but he's constantly hurt, his hard hit and fly ball rates are through the roof this season, and he's already ARB 3 next year
Ruiz: yes he had a nice start to his MLB career and he steals a ton of bases, but he's not been considered a top tier prospect before
Gasser: ya he's in their top ten but he throws mid to low 90s and is a 23 year old in high A, he's got talent but we'll see

 

To me, even with closers not being worth that much compared to other positions, you have to get one of the Dads' best prospects in return. I really don't care about Rogers and Lamet (Lamet is a shell of his former self, a 50% hard hit rate lol, no thanks). Just not a good deal imo.

 

[Pdubdub29]

11 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I think you guys are giving too much credence to Lamet's 4th in the Cy Young voting--it was 2020 and he only had 12 starts.

 

Agreed. It was like 69 innings and he's done nothing since. Also, he's already making about 4.7 mil in ARB 2, probably because of that year (in part). Will they even tender him at ARB 3? I doubt it

[Pdubdub29]

55 minutes ago, Caswell said:

Lamet will be really good next year, and those prospects make me feel better and better. They look pretty good. Hader will be making much more than what Lamet will earn, and it opens salary for, may I suggest, a nice little extension to Burnes or Woodruff. I think Rogers will get back to a dominant reliever as well, and will probably save games with Williams depending on the situation.

Umm, why would Lamet be really good last year? His hard hit rate this year is 50%! His fly ball rates are way up, strikeouts down. There's no reason at all to think he's turned it around. And he's already ARB 3 next season, they probably won't even tender him

[Caswell]

3 hours ago, Pdubdub29 said:

Umm, why would Lamet be really good last year? His hard hit rate this year is 50%! His fly ball rates are way up, strikeouts down. There's no reason at all to think he's turned it around. And he's already ARB 3 next season, they probably won't even tender him

You're focusing way too much on that hard hit rate and not taking into account many of the other things. You don't like this trade, but it is very good for the organization. Relievers aren't getting what they used to, and it is a great way to get talent for now, and for the future.

Lamet will be getting tendered first of all. He and the Padres agreed to $4.2mil, and I forecast between $4.5mil-$5mil next season. Which is very modest and a good rate.

Finally, the hard hit rate of 50.0%. Obviously, not ideal, isn't the end of the world. There has been an increase in fly balls, but that is in part due to the location he has been working in. He also has been basically a two pitch pitcher this year, which hasn't bode well. I expect his curveball to come back into the swing next season, which is a great pitch for him. I'm not sure why is was removed in the first place. His slider is off this year.

Finally, everything is down this year for Lamet. Spin, break, drop, everything. Velocity is mostly down as well. Despite this, his zone contact rate is absolutely elite. Some minor tweaks, and he will be incredibly useful.