Article: Josh Hader Traded to San Diego Padres

[Brock Beauchamp]

Rumors have circulated that Hader could be dealt but most expected it to occur in the offseason, not during a division race.

Per a report from Jeff Passan, Brewers left-handed reliever Josh Hader has been traded to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Taylor Rogers and prospects. More information to come as details unfold.

Taylor Rogers, who is a free agent at the end of the season, is also left-handed and after several successful seasons with the Minnesota Twins, was traded to San Diego just before Opening Day. Rogers has struggled in the closer role for the Padres, blowing seven saves and posting a WPA of -0.5. 

Josh Hader leads MLB with 29 saves. Rogers is second with 28 saves. 

This marks the third time that Hader has been traded at the July deadline in his career. A 19th-round pick in 2012 by the Orioles, he was traded to the Astros in a deal that sent Bud Norris to Baltimore. Then at the July deadline in 2016, he and three others were traded to the Brewers for right-hander Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez. 

Hader made his debut in 2017 and has been named to each All Star team since 2018. In his six seasons with The Crew, he pitched in 269 games, all out of the bullpen. He is 17-17 but has 125 career saves. In 316 1/3 innings, he struck out an incredible 541 batters (15.4 K/9). 

Robert Gasser is a 23-year-old left-handed pitcher in A-Ball. He is the Padres #7 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. Esteury Ruiz is a 23-year-old outfielder. ranked #28 on the Padres MLB Pipeline rankings. He has spent time with the Padres. 

Dinelson Lamet, 29, has recently been brought back to the Padres after fighting injuries the last couple of years. He has shown flashes of brilliance recently out of the bullpen, though the sample size is very small and the ERA isn't pretty (9.49 in 12 1/3 innings). If he can harness some control, he could provide depth to the Brewers bullpen. 

Heading into play on Monday, the Brewers are 57-45, three games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals atop the NL Central division. The Padres are 57-46 which puts them 12 games behind the NL West-leading Dodgers (68-33). 

There it is. How do you feel about the Brewers trading Hader, and specifically, how do you feel about the reported return?

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[monty57]

Better be some damn good prospects.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Better be some damn good prospects.

Unfortunately, I'm pretty underwhelmed.

[monty57]

What are they going to do with Lamet? Started his career as a promising starter, but hasn't had much success as a reliever in the past two seasons. If I recall correctly, there were some injury issues. Is he slated for a "Multi-inning reliever" role, or does he give them options to potentially trade a starter?

He's kind of a weird add-on to the trade, but I hope they have a plan to make him a valuable addition to the roster.

[monty57]

From MLB.com's rankings:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

Gasser spent his 2018 freshman season at New Mexico, then transferred to Delta JC and led California junior college pitchers in wins (14-0, 2.38 ERA) and strikeouts (139 in 102 innings). He still didn't get drafted in 2019 and didn't make much of an impression in 2020 after transferring to Houston. He opened eyes when he pitched seven scoreless innings against Texas right-hander and Tigers pick Ty Madden last February, and he ended up going 71st overall to the Padres, with whom he signed for slot value ($884,200) in 2021. Gasser's pro debut was brief -- 15 innings in rookie ball and Low-A -- but his stuff exceeded expectations and excited Padres officials.

After previously operating in the upper 80s, Gasser's fastball ticked up last season and now sits in the low-to-mid 90s with running action. His slider has added power as well, sitting in the low 80s and showing flashes of becoming a plus pitch. Gasser also throws an above-average changeup, which surprised some in the Padres organization. The right-hander didn't use the pitch much as an amateur, but it's shown well so far in his pro career and could become a truly effective offering.

At 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, Gasser doesn't have a massive frame or overpowering stuff. However, he commands all his pitches well and knows how to pitch. He effectively moves the ball around the zone and could develop into an effective back-of-the-rotation starter.

[monty57]

MLB.com on Ruiz:

Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 45 | Run: 70 | Arm: 45 | Field: 50 | Overall: 40

A $100,000 signee by the Royals in July 2015, Ruiz was moved to the Padres two years later in a six-player deal at the Trade Deadline. Despite splitting time between two orgs, he managed to win 2017 Arizona League MVP honors after hitting .350/.395/.602 with 34 extra-base hits and 26 stolen bases in 52 games. Outside the stolen base totals, he never quite matched that production at the full-season levels and fell out of San Diego’s Top 30 last year after hitting just .249/.328/.411 with a 98 wRC+ in 84 games at Double-A San Antonio. He returned to the Texas League to begin 2022 and bounced back incredibly well in the first two months of the season.

Ruiz has always shown promising bat speed and decent raw power from the right side. However, Padres officials had been concerned about his swing decisions on pitches outside of the zone, leading to either strikeouts or weak contact. The Dominican Republic native has worked with San Antonio staff in 2022 to cut down on the chase rate, causing his walk rate to nearly double while he’s done a better job of lifting the ball on contact. 

Ruiz has the speed to provide value, and he puts it to good use on the basepaths. His 158 steals from 2016-21 ranked sixth-most in the Minors over that span. Those wheels have helped him move from second to the outfield, and he’s been focused entirely on center to begin 2022. He’s still rough around the edges there with enough speed to make up for mistakes. Still only 23, Ruiz’s breakout could be enough to push him into a utility Major League role within the next two seasons.

[Jim French Stepstool]

I like Ruiz, I think he's underrated. Gasser seems like someone with a ton of potential. Lamet, eh.

The only way this seems to offer immediate help is if Ruiz makes an impact in CF. I don't think they're done; picking up a young OFer makes it a little more comfy to deal one (or more) of the Biloxi guys.

[CheezWizHed]

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Unfortunately, I'm pretty underwhelmed.

I'll second that.

Getting back two BP arms isn't too surprising.  But I figured the two prospects would be a bit higher regarded.  Maybe one top 100 level prospect back.  

I know nothing about Gasser or Ruiz, but a 23yo A-baller can't be very thrilling.  

I wonder if something was going on with Hader?...

[CheezWizHed]

2 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

picking up a young OFer makes it a little more comfy to deal one (or more) of the Biloxi guys.

That is a great point.

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

 

I know nothing about Gasser or Ruiz, but a 23yo A-baller can't be very thrilling. 

If you're referring to Ruiz, he's split the season btwn AA & AAA, and had a cup of coffee with SD.

 

[clancyphile]

VERY underwhelmed. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

One aspect of this is the cost-savings. Taylor Rogers' salary is being paid by the Twins this season so the Brewers have very little salary coming back.

The other aspect of this is that Rogers has seriously underperformed this season. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him rebound to close to Hader-esque levels for the rest of the season.

Of course, that still doesn't cover Hader's 2023 season and I'm not very impressed with the return on that.

[monty57]

So Rogers becomes our left-handed setup man with Williams closing. It's a step back, but not nearly as big as it could be, as Rogers is one of the better relievers in baseball. He will be gone after this seasom

Lamet is probably a multi-inning reliever with what appears to be two more years of arbitration remaining. Hopefully the Brewers see something there and he regains what made him a good starter early in his career. Since Hader's early days, the Brewers have done well by having a solid multi-inning guy or two in the 'pen, so he could provide some value in the "Suter role"

Ruiz will probably take over Davis' spot on the roster and split time with Taylor in CF. Nothing to get too excited about, but should be a modest upgrade.

Gasser seems to be moving up the charts a bit even though he's already 23. If he has indeed added a few MPH to his fastball and has a plus slider and change-up, he could be something.

We didn't get a "can't miss" prospect, but since Rogers was in the deal along with two other guys who will likely be on the MLB roster, we probably couldn't have expected one. 

[LouisEly]

If all you knew about a guy is that as a 23-year-old CF in 374 PAs between AA and AAA he had a .467 OBP, a 52:65 BB:K ratio, and 13 HRs, what type of a prospect would you say that he is?

Granted, that is in the Texas League and the PCL, but OBP plays anywhere.  Looks like he's put a lot of work into pitch recognition and strike zone management as his BB:K ratio has improved dramatically over the last 3 years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

If all you knew about a guy is that as a 23-year-old CF in 374 PAs between AA and AAA he had a .467 OBP, a 52:65 BB:K ratio, and 13 HRs, what type of a prospect would you say that he is?

Granted, that is in the Texas League and the PCL, but OBP plays anywhere.  Looks like he's put a lot of work into pitch recognition and strike zone management as his BB:K ratio has improved dramatically over the last 3 years.

Yeah, the more I look at this trade, the more it makes sense. Losing Hader is hard but Rogers should be a capable replacement this season. And the more I look at the prospects, the more I'm interested in them.

[Jim French Stepstool]

30 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

 but OBP plays anywhere.  

Theoretically, it should. That's what I like about him. He's the #28 prospect in the SD organization. Unless they have the greatest farm system anyone has seen in decades I think that's a huge miscalculation.

[HarveysWBs]

This is a weird trade on so many levels.  Two (likely) playoff teams in the same league, the most dominant reliever in the game exchanging hands mid-year—and while the Brewers are amidst a division race and smack dab in the middle of their competitive window, and after the Brewers had fielded so many calls for years about Hader and always declined.

Obviously, a multitude of questions come to mind:  what do the Brewers know about Hader that makes them think now was the time to move him?  What do they see in the (largely major-league ready) talent coming back that made them pull the trigger?  Does the brass remain confident in the team’s chances for this year (hence the major-leaguers or major-league adjacent return)?  Is this step one in a larger deadline strategy?

I am a little underwhelmed at first blush, and I think that’s a factor of two elements: 1) I was gearing up for a winter trade, assuming we’d want Hader in the fold for the stretch run and playoffs at least on more time and 2) I kind of figured Hader would yield prospects as part of a build for the future type move.  Basically, the timing surprised me a lot and is making me reevaluate my expectations a little.  But more is sure to come.

[LouisEly]

I think that it's as simple as the Brewers don't make this deal without Rogers coming back.  In fact, without another very good reliever/closer coming back the Brewers don't trade Hader unitl the offseason.  The Padres might have been the only team that the Brewers would have traded Hader to.

[Nato_Coles]

This is a good trade. With the small-budget Brewers, we need to do things like this, painful though it may be. And I'll add that I don't believe this trade happens if Devin Williams isn't having his incredible year (somehow seemingly under the radar, or maybe it's just me). He's 3rd in all baseball among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched, as far as Fangraphs WPA goes. By way of contrast and comparison, Josh Hader (as we might all sense, if not already know) is 1st in all baseball since 2018 in that stat, but he's not anywhere near Williams this year. So, yeah, save the money, give Devin more 9th innings (and 8th-and-9th-innings), and plug Rogers in. His FIP is much lower than his ERA.

And as far as the other three? Dinelson Lamet posted a 201 ERA+ in 2020. That's otherworldly. Then he got hurt and very much sunk to earth. If there's anything left there, you know the Brewers are better than most at finding it. Robert Gasser should turn into something good, he's pitched better than expected this year.

As for Eleury Diaz, he is really interesting. I have four or five good friends in San Diego; you know we've been texting today. And it seems almost as if they're most sad to see Diaz go. They know how he's hit in Double- and Triple-A this year (that >.450 obp... wow), they know how insanely good at running and stealing bases he is, and apparently San Diego (and presumably the Brewers) have seen marked recent improvement in his centerfield defense, according to I believe Dennis Lin of the Athletic (their Padres beat reporter). Garrett Mitchell may never hit above Single-A. Jackson Chourio is still so young. Rolling the dice on a potential diamond-in-the-rough find on Diaz? I love it.

Now trade Omar Narvaez for something major-league-ready, hopefully something capable of smashing the baseball, and we're talking. Or not! He's pretty good in Milwaukee as is. It's just that there's that catching surplus now that Severino is back.

[brewmann04]

very underwhelmed at the return lets see what the crew does tomorrow. Rodgers is a FA so it be curious if he signs back here but  if this was about money it very frustrating to hear. I would move Omar  next  and hopefully add another piece. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

13 hours ago, Nato_Coles said:

Garrett Mitchell may never hit above Single-A. 

Garrett Mitchell hasn't even had a Single A AB. He torched A+ last year, which earned him a promotion to AA ball. After a slow start this year, he's been heating up in AA, and has his OPS up to .781, and if the rumors are correct, was recently promoted to AAA. If there is an consternation about Mitchell's future, its that he's been relatively injury-prone so far in his young career. But other than some scuffling after his call-up to AA last season, hitting hasn't been an issue.