Mariners Trade for Luis Castillo

[Eye Black]

Via Ken Rosenthal the return for Castillo…

 

[nate82]

Just now, Eye Black said:

Via Ken Rosenthal the return for Castillo…

 

Heading to Reds, per @Ctrent: Noelvi Marte, Levi Stoudt, Edwin Arroyo, Andrew Moore. Three of Mariners’ top five prospects, per @MLBPipeline.

Dodged a bullet there was hoping the Dodgers, Padres or the Cardinals wouldn't get him.

[torts]

✅ not in NL Central

✅ Not in the NL 

Good trade in my eyes

[Eye Black]

Mariners not shy about unloading the very top of their farm system for Castillo. I think 18-year old Edwin Arroyo has a shot at becoming a very good prospect for the Reds.

[wibadgers23]

This bodes well for the Brewers not having to face Castillo anymore.

[Eye Black]

Between the Reds already having shortstop Elly De La Cruz, and now adding two more shortstop prospects in both Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo, I’ll go out on a limb and say the Reds will have a perennial All-Star shortstop at some point a little later this decade. 

[Eye Black]

So the Brewers only had to face Luis Castillo once this season (his first outing of the year on May 9th) and they remain the only team Castillo didn’t make it to 5.0+ IP against this year.

[Jopal78]

Luis Castillo netted the Reds two A-Ball players and a AA player?
 

Good news for Milwaukee as it’s unlikely they’ll need to trade Turang. Mitchell, Frelick etc. to upgrade their roster. 
 

I remember when the Brewers traded Kevin Seitzer for Jeromy Burnitz and plugged him directly into the major league lineup for the next six years. Those days are certainly gone now when a controllable top of the rotation starter brings back three players all of whom are years away from the majors. 

[SRB]

Unfortunately for us Seattle overpaid so the Reds got a much better return than they should have. Fortunately for us the Reds will probably still mess it up somehow. ?

[Jopal78]

26 minutes ago, SRB said:

Unfortunately for us Seattle overpaid so the Reds got a much better return than they should have. Fortunately for us the Reds will probably still mess it up somehow. ?

There’s a 90% chance none of those minor leaguers ever play for the Reds. Over pay… ha

[KeithStone53151]

39 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

There’s a 90% chance none of those minor leaguers ever play for the Reds. Over pay… ha

I'd take those odds. Remember, it's the reds. It doesn't take much to crack that roster

[sveumrules]

8 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I'd take those odds. Remember, it's the reds. It doesn't take much to crack that roster

Yeah, I’ll take those odds too. Noelvi Marte entered the season ranked between #11-18 on the MLB, BPro & BA lists, and has put up a 134 wRC+ with a 21.3% K rate as a 21 year old SS in A+ since then.

Players with that kind of scouting & statistical profile don’t flameout before MLB 90% of the time.

[Jopal78]

48 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, I’ll take those odds too. Noelvi Marte entered the season ranked between #11-18 on the MLB, BPro & BA lists, and has put up a 134 wRC+ with a 21.3% K rate as a 21 year old SS in A+ since then.

Players with that kind of scouting & statistical profile don’t flameout before MLB 90% of the time.

Yep, and Kris Bryant and Juan Soto had a 1.000 OPS in the minors, Bryce Harper was over .900. Those are the “can’t miss guys”. 
 

A 21 year old with an .840 OPS in A+ may have a shot at playing in the majors, but it’s a long road ahead. Garrett Mitchell looked like a cornerstone middle of the order hitter in A+ too (1.100 OPS).

The prospect love is way out of control. Teams are lucky if they have one or two players per draft/international signing period make the major leagues let alone become stars.

Seattle acquires a controllable #1 starter for 3 players who in 2-3 years may or may not see the major leagues at all (let alone become regulars or stars)  and someone said they overpaid! 

 

 

[trwi7]

25 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

A 21 year old with an .840 OPS in A+ may have a shot at playing in the majors, but it’s a long road ahead. Garrett Mitchell looked like a cornerstone middle of the order hitter in A+ too (1.100 OPS).

He's 20 and will be 20 for the rest of the season.  Also, Yordan Alvarez had a .722 OPS in A+ as a 20 year old and now he's the best hitter in baseball.  Aaron Judge had an .850 OPS as a 22 year old in A+. So great job trying to prove a point with one or two examples.  I can do the exact same thing the other way.

[homer]

12 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Luis Castillo netted the Reds two A-Ball players and a AA player?
 

Good news for Milwaukee as it’s unlikely they’ll need to trade Turang. Mitchell, Frelick etc. to upgrade their roster. 
 

I remember when the Brewers traded Kevin Seitzer for Jeromy Burnitz and plugged him directly into the major league lineup for the next six years. Those days are certainly gone now when a controllable top of the rotation starter brings back three players all of whom are years away from the majors. 

Unless I'm reading SportTrac incorrectly, I don't know I'd call Castillo "controllable". Ashby and Peralta are controllable, Castillo has one year of arby left and is then a free agent.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Yep, and Kris Bryant and Juan Soto had a 1.000 OPS in the minors, Bryce Harper was over .900. Those are the “can’t miss guys”. 
 

A 21 year old with an .840 OPS in A+ may have a shot at playing in the majors, but it’s a long road ahead. Garrett Mitchell looked like a cornerstone middle of the order hitter in A+ too (1.100 OPS).

The prospect love is way out of control. Teams are lucky if they have one or two players per draft/international signing period make the major leagues let alone become stars.

Seattle acquires a controllable #1 starter for 3 players who in 2-3 years may or may not see the major leagues at all (let alone become regulars or stars)  and someone said they overpaid! 

 

 

I’ve only run three draft classes so far, but between the 2010 and 2012 draft every high school pick in the first two rounds who got off to even close to the start Arroyo has made the big leagues. The least successful was Nick Williams, but the next least successful was Joey Gallo. Others included guys like Story, Yelich, Correa, Baez and Machado. Even adjusting for the recent minor league changes, the chances are far better than you give them credit for.

[Simba2020]

Haven't updated my list in a little bit, but for the first 25 years or so of Baseball America top 100 prospect lists, over 95% of hitters made it to the majors. Even slightly higher of course for a top 50 prospect. Netting two top-50 prospects for Castillo seems like a pretty fair return to me.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Simba2020 said:

Haven't updated my list in a little bit, but for the first 25 years or so of Baseball America top 100 prospect lists, over 95% of hitters made it to the majors. Even slightly higher of course for a top 50 prospect. Netting two top-50 prospects for Castillo seems like a pretty fair return to me.

I don’t dispute teams need a flowing pipeline of talent to remain relevant over the long haul.

But prospect lists out out out by journalists/websites are basically a bunch guess work.
 

Tom Haudricourt, wrote (or at least go-wrote) the BA prospects lists for Milwaukee, and outside of spring training he would not have seen those players actually playing in person because he was covering the major league beat.

Scouts might share what they’re seeing, but no organization is going to divulge to a journalist where they have players rated. There’s probably internal disagreement within the organizations as to which minor league players are best. 
 

Being years away from competing it’s a nice return for the Reds to get some talented A-ballers with some success already under their belts, but nobody knows if those players will be stars or nothing. 

 

[zurch1818]

I'll be honest, I thought I read Marlins and not Mariners when I first saw this trade. I was very confused as this goes against everything the Marlins have done throughout their history.

[Robocaller]

On 7/29/2022 at 10:33 PM, Jopal78 said:

Luis Castillo netted the Reds two A-Ball players and a AA player?
 

Good news for Milwaukee as it’s unlikely they’ll need to trade Turang. Mitchell, Frelick etc. to upgrade their roster. 
 

I remember when the Brewers traded Kevin Seitzer for Jeromy Burnitz and plugged him directly into the major league lineup for the next six years. Those days are certainly gone now when a controllable top of the rotation starter brings back three players all of whom are years away from the majors. 

you are really underestimating the haul the Reds got.

[Eye Black]

Have seen some people compare this move by the Mariners to the Brewers acquiring CC Sabathia in 2008. Obviously not apples-to-apples since CC was more highly regarded and was a true rental versus Castillo having another year of team control remaining, but from a standpoint of trying to end a playoff drought and give a franchise with up-and-coming talent a boost it certainly does have some similarities.