Article: The Red Sox are Good? Bad? Open for Business?

[Tommy Ciaccio]

It's counterintuitive to imagine a bad team coming from New England, but alas, the shambolic Red Sox have fallen to last place in their brutal division. Will they even be the team as described in this post, or will their veterans be traded away before this series can begin?

It feels unnatural to associate Boston with anything other than winning. Even a Boston team previously associated with a curse, and one who resides in the toughest division in baseball. But as I write this, the Red Sox and their .495 winning percentage are indeed in last place, looking up at a very fun Orioles team and three other teams who are all very much in the running for a playoff berth. Fresh off a sweep of the Twins, the Brewers are looking to buy before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Can they force Boston into seller’s territory, and will the Brewers be taking a couple of re-uniformed Red Sox with them on the team plane out of town? Let’s check out the match-ups. 

Friday July 29th
Brandon Woodruff (8-3 3.73 ERA)
Brayan Bello (0-2 10.50 ERA)
Brandon Woodruff has maintained a dominant streak since returning from a tandem ankle injury and Raynaud’s syndrome diagnosis. In his most recent start Woody struck out an impressive eight Rockies over six innings, surrendering only one run. Brayan Bello will make the start for the Red Sox, filling in for the injured and ever-mercurial Chris Sale . Bello has been decent for AAA-Worcester, holding a 2.82 ERA over 54.1 IP, but he’s been crushed in the majors. The .471 BABIP suggests the numbers could come down a little over an extended start, but the numbers are so bad that even optimistic peripherals aren’t enough to belie what simply hasn’t been a great start to the young righty’s major league career.

Saturday July 30th
Eric Lauer (6-3 3.84 ERA)
Nick Pivetta (8-7 4.35 ERA)
This is the most evenly matched of the three games, in terms of pitcher matchups. The Rockies proved too much for Eric Lauer in his most recent start, where he sputtered to an uninspiring 4.1 inning start that saw him give up four runs, and perhaps more alarmingly, three walks. The season has been unpredictable for Lauer, vacillating from ace-like in some starts to unwatchable in others.

He will need to work hard to keep the ball in Fenway if he’s going to compete against the solid righty Nick Pivetta. The tall righty’s numbers may not knock you out of your socks at first glance, but he’s been one of the rotation’s most reliable components so far this year. Furthermore, the crafty four-pitch repertoire makes him a challenge to impatient and feisty lineups, making him a risk to play stopper for the hot-hitting Brewers offense.  

Sunday July 31st
Aaron Ashby (2-8 4.38 ERA)
Josh Winckowski (3-5 5.18 ERA)
Earlier this week, the Brewers put forth a vote of confidence for the young Aaron Ashby in the form of a five -ear, $20.5MM extension. The numbers haven’t exactly dazzled for Ashby to this point (though his last start was impressive, giving up 2 runs over 7 IP), but they also aren’t unexpected for a rookie arm. It will be interesting to see if Ashby remains in the rotation after the trade deadline or if a trade requisitions him temporarily to the pen.

It’s hard to tell if Josh Winckowski would even be in Boston if it weren’t for a bevy of calamities that have stricken the Red Sox rotation. Regardless, the rookie campaign has been sub-par for the Red Sox righty. The 5.18 ERA isn’t good and the 4.92 FIP doesn’t suggest anything immediately better is on the horizon. Like Ashby, Winckowski is a promising product, but the results haven’t come to fruition just yet. 

Players To Watch
J.D. Martinez : Somehow despite the accolades, the playoff appearances, the paycheck and the revitalized career Martinez still feels overlooked and underrated. After an unremarkable start to his career, he was DFA’d by the Astros. Martinez was picked up by Detroit where under the tutelage of Miguel Cabrera , he promptly began crushing the ball. Since then he’s been a consistent threat at the plate, and with his contract wrapping up, he looks like a good value rental for any team looking for some pop at the plate. 

Rafael Devers : The expanded playoffs have created a bloated and competitive demand in the trade market. Transitively, it’s hard to imagine a team as reliant on their prospects as the Brewers tend to be to sell it all for a player like Devers, but it must mouthwatering for any team to imagine his talents on their team. With the Red Sox suddenly more conclusively in the seller’s spot, Devers and his .981 OPS likely sit right behind Juan Soto as the most desirable asset possibly on the market. It also wouldn’t be stunning to see Boston extend him.

Trevor Story : It seemed like the Brewers were suitors for the mishandled former Rockies shortstop when he hit free agency this past season. Brewers fans were breathing a sigh of relief when Story put up a historically bad month and a half to start 2022. Then, on one Thursday in late May, he went 4-4. Three of those hits were home runs, he collected seven RBI’s and even managed to steal a base. It hasn’t been as torrid as that for Story, but he’s re-affirmed Boston’s reasons for signing him and is still a phenomenal athlete who’s always worth keeping an eye on.

Predictions
This is a tricky one. Coming off of a sweep it’s easy to say that the Brewers have momentum on their hands, but the pressure is definitely on for Milwaukee to solidify themselves as NL Central favorites before the trade deadline passes. High pressure situations against bad teams always feel like a formula for a frustrating loss, so I think the Brewers take two of three, though logically they should sweep.

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[Robocaller]

the brewers didn't come off a sweep.

I wonder if we can work out a deal for any of the Red Sox before they leave town.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pitcher wins don't matter one bit but I didn't realize Ashby is 2-8. Yikes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 hours ago, Robocaller said:

the brewers didn't come off a sweep.

They beat the Twins twice in two games. Do you not count two game series as sweeps?

[Caswell]

Just like the Rockies series, I think this is a good little tryout for some potential trade targets. Enrique Hernandez is a player I would love for the Crew to go out and acquire if Bryan Reynolds will not be available. There's a couple other interesting options with the Red Sox too. Looking forward to these games!

[BruisedCrew]

Two of the three players to watch (Story and Devers) are on the IL and won’t be playing in this series. 
 

Martinez missed the first four games after the All Star break and has gone 0 for 10 in the three games since his return. 
 

Hernandez has been on the 60 day IL and will not be playing. Cora said he might start swinging a bat soon, but I wouldn’t be looking at him as a trade option for the Brewers unless there is reason to believe he will be back soon. He was off to a bad start before he was hurt. 
 

Between the injuries and a number of players having subpar seasons (Dalbec, Verdugo, Arroyo (also injured)) it’s almost remarkable that the Red Sox are at .500 considering the division they play in. They are 12-29 against AL East teams and 38-21 against everyone else. They had a great June (20-6) but have struggled in July (7-17) against mostly division rivals, though they did rebound to split 4 against the Guardians this week after losing 9 of 10 to the Rays, Yankees, and Jays. 
 

Their pitching can be atrocious at times, as evidenced by giving up 55 runs in 3 consecutive games (14, 13,and 28) against the  Yankees and Jays last week. 

The Brewers are catching the Bosox at a good time, but they are still a formidable team. Controlling Bogaerts and Martinez, and hoping JBJ doesn’t pull the standard “former Brewer” act will be key.