DSL Breakdown

[Jenkins5]

I went through and crunched numbers to identify some of the higher achieving DSL players this season so far to possibly keep an eye on. I know when I look at box scores I'm always curious about more info on the players. Plus it will be fun to revisit in future to see what happens with some of these guys. I didn't go with anyone over 18 for it. I just feel at DSL their are a bunch of 16-17 year olds playing and being 19-20 is pretty big advantage at that this age. Pretty much high school verse college kids. 

 

The Repeats

Yeison Perez 18, 5-10 165,  OF, DSL

Repeat at DSL this year and has shown major growth in every area. He is really excelling at what I like for a hitter profile with even more power.Currently slashing .321/.389/.691 with .370 iso, 10.5% to 21.1% BB% to K%. That includes 7 doubles and 7 HRs with a 164 wRC+. All up from .244/.293/.333 with .090 iso, 5.4% to 24.6% BB% to K%. Had 9 2b and 1 hr last season. 

 

Arnys Rodriquez 18, 5’11 173, 1B

Another repeat at DSL this year and has shown good growth. Hit tool is still a question and limited power but walks a ton. K’s a little high but not too bad. Currently slashing .254/.420/.358 with 21.6% BB% and 27.3% K rate. Iso is up to .104 with wRC+ of 124 

 

Edgardo Ordonez 18/ 5’11 155/ C/1B/ L/R

A questionable repeat based on his line from last year. Curious as to why he was repeated. He is a catcher so even though the bat is ready they may want him to improve more behind plate. Last year at 17 had a slash of .298/.427/.440 with .868 OPS, a 148 wRC+. He had 13.6% to 19.4% bb-k rate with .143 iso. This year hasn’t been as outstanding but still impressive with wRC+ of 127, iso of .143, and BB% of 18.3%. His slash is .268/.408/.411 with .819 OPS. He increased his pull rate up to 60% which in return saw a spike up to 28.2% K rate. 

 

New Bloods

Luis Lara 17, 5’9 155, OF S/R

Contact bat with some pop. Doesn’t walk a ton but also doesn’t strike out either with a 6.2% to 13% BB-K% rate. He has the 2nd best OPS of the DSL bunch with .807 coming from a strong slash line of .298/.349/.458. He carries strong .160 iso lead by 10 2b, 4 3b, and 1hr. Speed is part of his game to stretch out hits but not helping on bases with 5 for 11 in SB attempts.

 

Jhonny Severino 17, 6’3 185, SS, R/R

Another bonus baby from 2022 signing day. Outstanding build who I guess may eventually slide to 3B. He has racked up 15 errors in 27 games playing both. His numbers don’t pop at all but a very solid debut so far outside of his k%. He sits at a .273/.350/.380 slash with .731 OPS.  He does carry a .107 iso and it 7-7 in steals. He walks at a good 9.5% rate but 29.9% K% is too high. Has 8-1-1 2b-3b-hr line.

 

Juan Baez 17, 5’11 175, SS R/R

With Mogollon, arguably the best value signing of the class so far at only 10k. Was listed as a catcher but has been a mainstay at SS with some utility around infield. Batting so far is comparable to Luis Lara with less XBH. He carries a .296/.342/.415 .757 OPS. He also is a contact hitter with lower walk totals and low k totals sitting at 6.0% to 13.4% BB% to K%. Power is a .119 iso with 7-0-3 2B-3B-HR line. 10-15 on SBs. 103 wRC+ 
 

Johan Barrios 17, 6’3 180, 3B, R/R

The biggest bonus getter with 1.3 million this signing class. Great build similar to Severino at 6’3 180. He is mostly a 3B with some time at SS. Injury has limited his games a bit. The power hasn’t shown up much yet but I love his approach! He has maybe the best and most balanced batted ball line to go with a very respectable BB% to K% rate. He has 23.3% line drive% (one of highest), 44.2% GB%, and 32.7& FB%. More impressive is how balanced he is with his hit chart. He goes all over the field evenly with 34.8%, 30.4%, 34.8% Pull, center, oppo%. His 13-22% bb-k% rate is encouraging as well. Only 3 XBH in 61 ABs for low iso of .066. Has a 102 wRC+
 

Francisco Nina 17, 6’5 175, OF, R/R

Another 10k signing showing some great value not to mention this kid's size is very projectable at 6’5 175. He has a solid slash line at .265/.365/.349 with .714 OPS. Power hasn’t shown much yet for size but has a very nice 22% line drive rate and also like his 10.7% bb rate. He is a big pull hitter at 53% which could be part of the higher 27.1% rate. 4-5 on Steals, has 4 2Bs and 1 HR. 

 

Gery Holguin 16, 6’0 160, UTIF, R/R

Got $450k signing bonus and turns 17 in August. He has been outmatched so far this season but there are things to like so far about this youngest kid on the team. First, he already has a good build/frame to grow and add strength. He has great eye at the plate with a 16.7% BB rate which despite inability to hit much he has a .341 OBP Outside of that, he is a kid who may need a 2nd year at DSL or have a big jump in the off-season. He is slashing .186/.341/.245 with .596 OPS. His iso is .059 behind two HRs. He is 3-5 in SBs so speed isn’t much of his game right now. Very pull happy at over 50% which could be why he is k’ing at a 29.4% rate. I added him because he is youngest and there is traits there to build off of 

 

Pitchers

Osbriel Mogollon 18, 5’10 160,  LHP 

For a 10k signing, he has been one of most impressive arms outside of his higher bb/9 of 5.64. Small stature has meant little for him, dominating opposing batters with 13.3 K/9, .133 BAA, 1.07 WHIP, and 1.21 ERA. His FIP is 3.08 and 3.58 xFIP.  He gets GBs at a 48.8%

 

Anfernny Reyes 18, 6’3 170, LHP

While not as dominant as Mogollon, Reyes is having a very good first season. He has the body type that can add strength at 6’3 170 and is also a lefty. He has a 8.54 K/9 compared to 3.86 BB/9. Striking out 22.1% of batters he has only allowed .208 BAA with 1.22 WHIP. His 3.37 FIP/ 3.91 xFIP to go with 1.10 ERA. He doesn’t let the ball in the air very much at 27%.However does have a higher LD% at 19%. 53.4% ground ball.  

 

Manuel Rodriquez 16, 6’2 175, RHP

The 2nd youngest pitcher in DSL who hasn’t dominated but has been reasonably solid for age. He has good build for a young pitcher and excellent command of the strike zone with only a 1.93 BB/9 (5 walks in 23 IPs) He is currently attacking the zone and difficult to get hits off of with a .188 BAA and 0.90 WHIP. He has 6.17 K/9 and 17.2% which doesn’t excite much. Solid 4.10 FIP and 4.53 xFIP. ERA of 3.09. I’d like to see if next year at 17 his stuff takes a jump to increase K’s which would really bump stock which shows how solid he is overall.

 

Bryan Rivera 17 6’1 170 RHP 

Just turned 17 after the start of the season and is one of the higher pitcher signing bonuses in this class at $27,500. Good size and is right around where I like pitchers to be in K/9 to BB/9 at 9.60 to 3.00. He has been hit pretty good through with a .311. WHIP at 1.60. ERA and FIP not great with both over 5 BUT xFIP is at 4.04.

 

Daniel Corniel 18, 6’0 177, RHP

Just turned 18. I like the K/9 BB/9 ratio of 9.53 to 3.18. Overall nothing else that stands out very much except the 3.90 xFIP and decent 4.42 FIP. He gets hit at a .276 with WHIP of 1.48. He has given up 3 HRs at a 9.1% rate. High Line Drive rate at 21.7%. Always worth paying attention to young arms though with the ability to get some Ks and not walk at a high clip.

[Madhawk23]

Thanks for researching all of this.  I always wonder who are some of the lesser heralded guys in those DSL box scores that I should be monitoring, so this is very helpful.  

[CheeseheadInQC]

Love the list. Nina does kind of read "Most likely to be the 2023 version of Luis Castillo."

Maybe I'm being stubborn, but I'm thinking Wande Torres at least gets the Jared Albir, "We'll promote you despite your stats" spot next season. He's a 6-3 17-year-old lefty striking out almost 11 per game. Now about the walks ...

[SomewhereInTime]

If even one of them ever puts on a big league brewer uniform i will be shocked.

[sveumrules]

31 minutes ago, SomewhereInTime said:

If even one of them ever puts on a big league brewer uniform i will be shocked.

Sure, the odds are exponentially stacked against them, they are teenage kids in a foreign country.

At the same time, the Brewers have completely overhauled their international department since Stearns & company got here with the fruits of those efforts starting to make their way stateside. The Carolina roster is overwhelmingly filled with international signings over drafted players.

Not that long ago Freddy Peralta was a short RHP with nothing more than impressive K/BB ratios for the Mariners DSL/AZL squads, or Jackson Chourio was just another skinny Venezuelan SS with a million plus bonus.

[Jenkins5]

1 hour ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Love the list. Nina does kind of read "Most likely to be the 2023 version of Luis Castillo."

Maybe I'm being stubborn, but I'm thinking Wande Torres at least gets the Jared Albir, "We'll promote you despite your stats" spot next season. He's a 6-3 17-year-old lefty striking out almost 11 per game. Now about the walks ...

 I broke down the top 10  International Arizona Complex pitchers as well today just didn't post. Plenty of examples of kids with high walk rates, FIPs, ERAs in DSL last year and came up showing out much better! Yujanyer Herrera and a kid who has really turned it on who may really pop if he can carry July over, Jesus Rivero were in similar boats last year. 

 

Wande Torres, Darling Solano, Aneuris Rodriquez are all Kids I think could move up next year and be much improved. They all have little control right now which is their major issue that has doomed them this season. They all three though K over 10 per 9, all are tough to hit with batting average against sitting .200 or lower, and all three have nice and low line drive rates.  Rodriquez has the 6'3 185 build kind of like Torres. Solano little smaller at 6'1 165. 

 

[Mass Haas]

There are certainly more, and likely even more prominent ones, but Joakim Soria, Xavier Cedeno, and J.P. Feyereisen (hello, eventually Willy Adames) were acquired in deals that included players who got their starts in the DSL.

Value is in the eye of the beholder.

(In the case of Feyereisen, the young man never even suited up for the Crew).

[SomewhereInTime]

14 hours ago, Mass Haas said:

There are certainly more, and likely even more prominent ones, but Joakim Soria, Xavier Cedeno, and J.P. Feyereisen (hello, eventually Willy Adames) were acquired in deals that included players who got their starts in the DSL.

Value is in the eye of the beholder.

(In the case of Feyereisen, the young man never even suited up for the Crew).

Now that I think is the best use of DSL players.  If you can trade them for anything of value at the deadline, that's a win.

The DSL system is awful.  No player should be signing a deal at age 16.  A 16 year old could already have six or seven years in the minors before reaching the age that many college players are first drafted.  Often times these guys end up being rushed up through the system and you end up either wasting a 40 man spot on them too early or losing them to free agency unless you hit the miracle prospect.  Way too many of them end up littering the benches and bottom of the lineups of our A ball teams before getting released or hitting free agency a year or two later.

In the history of this franchise, if I'm remembering correctly, we have three DSL players that have ever made it all the way up to Milwaukee from their own DSL team and maybe two good seasons combined among them.  Outside of developing players you can use in trades, I don't think it's worthwhile to pay much attention to what's going on in DSL.

[Jenkins5]

First the record of players from Brewers to make it can be thrown out. Brewers until recently have not really invested in international talent. If you look at other teams who have long been invested and consistently, they have produced ton of MLB talent. Brewers would sign maybe a handful a year and give out a couple bigger bonuses but overall they were not very committed to the market. However, with that said, only 3-5% signings will make it to the major leagues. So you are correct there.

The DSL Academy system itself is actually good. It helps develop the players, gives them some schooling, prepares them for adjusting to life in America. They have access to top notch fields, strength training, nutrition, housing, etc that otherwise could be rather poor. They are also playing best of the best of their fellow Latin American peers. Not to mentions the thousands of jobs these DSL academies have brought to those communities.  Note though these kids at 12-14 are recruited to play for unaffiliated academies who prep them to be signed.  The good ones offer housing, meals, training as well (Think IMG Academies). Buscar's are the biggest issue with this though, they are like agents for these middle school kids who get them in academies and tryouts then take big percent of bonus (like 30%). Most are good but some really shady ones who really  screw these kids and families over. 

What you have a problem with is the  system itself. How early they sign and long path that puts them at a disadvantage. That is very understandable. The infrastructure is so different than America though. Their schooling system is different. Going to school and playing "high school ball" isn't an option. The schools don't have funds like ours do to really support that. Plus kids that aged are forced to work and provide for family. Moreover, they don't have a real college baseball option. Unless your family moved to U.S.  earlier on. Some may blame baseball for lack of education due to these young boys leaving school to focus on baseball, however, studies show many of the boys the same age leave school because they need to work on sugar cain farms, for hotels, etc to help provide for families. Their signing bonuses, even at 10k may be years worth of salary for their family. They also get paid a lot in D.R. terms as well. They make $600-$750 a month compared to the normal lower employee their making around $100 a month. 

Basically, signing these 16-17 year olds (must be 17 before July of that year) is like giving them a paid college scholarship to compete for a chance to someday play pro ball in America at highest level. At 17 they are basically the Bryce Harper's or Robert Moore's reclassifying and going on scholarship a year early. Only difference is they are considered pro players now and affiliated with a team.  They are all chasing opportunity to provide better life for their families. Not much different than basketball/football scholarships are used in poor communities in America. They are an opportunity and next. step to make it to NFL or NBA and change everything for their families.  Most will not make it nor change their families life. Doesn't mean it is bad. Talent will always win out. Only the most talented reach stateside before they are "draft eligible" American/Canadian age. Kids who sign at 17-18 after being drafted out of high school are in similar spot. Most will not make it. Most will wash out before ever reaching A+ or AA. Its way minors are. About 99% of college scholarship athletes in basketball and Football will also never make it. You can argue they at least get an education but again you are talking about kids coming from countries with some of the worst education systems in the world. 

 

I don't have problem with the system as a whole. It can continue to improve for sure though. Educational opportunities need to increase for players. Those young academies their need to like IMG here be giving these kids an education on top of baseball. The DSL and Arizona Complex need to more than teach them English and American culture but also make sure they at least get GED level education with future scholarships to higher education like American players are offered.  Also, their clock to be added to 40 man shouldn't start until they are stateside. Players can stay in DSL until 21 to develop so the rush to move them up could decrease with incentive to develop them as much as possible there. 

 

Lastly, even if most don't make it. 30% of MLB players are Latin American. Many of it's biggest stars are Latin American. Many of the biggest prospects are Latin American. So to think you shouldn't sign them because most won't make it is foolish. Most players from high school, 4 year schools, Juco, etc also will not make it. 

 

Sorry so long, In college I did a big 5 page scholarly research paper on all this and love this topic. Baseball does so much for these kids and communities that otherwise would be impossible. Even flaming out early, you provided for family like wouldn't have been possible. Even if it was a year or two. As teacher, I wish education/career prep was more emphasis to help these kids if they do flame out. I know a few teams invest a lot into that stuff (think Mets are one). Helps with signing top talent as well. Prove to parents you are truly taking care of their 17 year old son much like a college coach takes on.

[SomewhereInTime]

You can still have the academy but there should not be any signings or affiliation until age 18.  There should not be a separate set of age rules for domestic amateur players compared to international amateur players.

The entire signing bonus system is ridiculous as well.  There should either be a separate international draft or the international players should be eligible for the standard rule 4 draft.

[CheeseheadInQC]

@Jenkins5 covered the structural, but to expand more on the baseball side, everything you said about the Brewers DSL system has been true (I think I once said that an "Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here" sign should be placed above its bullpen) -- until recently.

The classes on either side of the pandemic have been the deepest in team history, and it has led to Carolina, which I think once had a starting lineup of all DSL grads, to have an above .500 record despite having the youngest offense and pitching staff in their league.

And it looks like it is going to continue next year. I'd wager a majority of the opening day starting lineup in Carolina next season is DSL grads (or guys who skipped the DSL after being injured the year after signing). 

Patricio Aquino, Arielbi Gonzalez, Alexander Vallecillo, Gerson Calzadilla and Yujanyer Herrera all have been pitching like legitimate options to be in a piggyback role in Carolina next year.

Now granted, this year's DSL group doesn't seem to be quite as deep as the previous two classes, And with Lara not being able to keep up his early pace, there isn't an obvious jump-off-the-page prospect, but then to be honest, Chourio had a pretty pedestrian first half last season and Areinamo and Castillo, two of the Brewers' best Arizona hitters this season were pretty nondescript. 

A sizable chunk of the team won't make it stateside and another sizable chunk won't make it out of the ACL, but that's the same as any guys. The college draftees just start a few levels up. The Brewers had what looks to be a really good draft last year and despite that, a chunk of the guys drafted in the first 10 rounds appear headed for those same bench/middle relief roles you talked about next year, just in Wisconsin instead.

[Jenkins5]

1 hour ago, SomewhereInTime said:

You can still have the academy but there should not be any signings or affiliation until age 18.  There should not be a separate set of age rules for domestic amateur players compared to international amateur players.

The entire signing bonus system is ridiculous as well.  There should either be a separate international draft or the international players should be eligible for the standard rule 4 draft.

I don't mind the signing at 17. High School kids can sign at 17 as long as they graduate or get GED. I could see maybe a mandatory first season in the DSL to better development. A problem with many Latin Americans is due to where they are from, they do not have same access or ability to develop their bodies way most Americans can. Until they sign, they don't have access to the strength and conditioning, nutritionist and proper foods, and such to develop bodies like a pro athlete. Why most are rail thin 150 pounds when they sign. That is unless they are children of former players or are able to get into the elite academies that offer that. So really you are putting them at a disadvantage from the start right there by making them same age as American High Schoolers who at nearly every school has weight rooms and coaches  or families have money for private trainers.  

 

I'm strongly against international draft. See no benefit in it. With the bonus pools, it levels playing field so rich markets can just outbid on everyone anymore. That even the playing field. Brewers have a chance to sign anyone just as much as the Yankees. You build an elite academy, offer education opportunities, and post career training. Show these kids you care about their future, how you can help develop them, and make life better...you got a good shot. Let the players and families decide whats best path for them.  What benefit comes from a draft? How do award the picks order? Currently its not a broken system and is improving. Only thing it may do, is move away scouts away from targeting kids starting at 13/14 back yup to 16/17. Same time with Perfect game, scouts are one these American kids just as early, just not talking contracts with them.