Trade Rumor: Brewers Pursuing Nationals' Josh Bell

[clancyphile]

On 7/26/2022 at 6:31 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

 

SS and 3B are not “holes”.The Brewers are getting top 10 MLB production from those two spots. The only so-called “black hole” there has been on this team this season was CF with Cain and Davis. Taylor has helped somewhat though we could definitely use an upgrade there. 
 

The main problem is we’re long on average to slightly above average hitters, while lacking great/elite hitters. Bell would definitely help with that based on his production this season.

Bell becomes that indirect upgrade by having McCutcheon and/or Yelich handle CF, Taylor to 4th OF.

The big question is avoiding the overpay. I'd send Gray, Garcia, and Jason Alexander.

LF: Yelich

SS: Adames

1B: Bell

DH: Tellez

CF: McCutcheon

3B: Urias

RF: Renfroe

? Narvaez/Caratini

2B: Wong

[clancyphile]

On 7/26/2022 at 6:31 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

 

SS and 3B are not “holes”.The Brewers are getting top 10 MLB production from those two spots. The only so-called “black hole” there has been on this team this season was CF with Cain and Davis. Taylor has helped somewhat though we could definitely use an upgrade there. 
 

The main problem is we’re long on average to slightly above average hitters, while lacking great/elite hitters. Bell would definitely help with that based on his production this season.

Bell becomes that indirect upgrade by having McCutcheon and/or Yelich handle CF, Taylor to 4th OF.

The big question is avoiding the overpay. I'd send Gray, Garcia, and Jason Alexander.

LF: Yelich

SS: Adames

1B: Bell

DH: Tellez

CF: McCutcheon

3B: Urias

RF: Renfroe

? Narvaez/Caratini

2B: Wong

[clancyphile]

20 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Exactly. Turang is rated as a 60 grade defender by most services. So, if he can continue to hit around .280-.300 with a high OBP and even a little power, he should prove to be quite valuable. 

In essence, Kolton Wong, but for $800K a year instead of a few million.

Heck if the Nats will take Severino in the deal, that opens a spot for Turang as an option in CF. Wong also played a little center, and wasn't awful if you want to limit Taylor.

[clancyphile]

20 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Exactly. Turang is rated as a 60 grade defender by most services. So, if he can continue to hit around .280-.300 with a high OBP and even a little power, he should prove to be quite valuable. 

In essence, Kolton Wong, but for $800K a year instead of a few million.

Heck if the Nats will take Severino in the deal, that opens a spot for Turang as an option in CF. Wong also played a little center, and wasn't awful if you want to limit Taylor.

[KeithStone53151]

4 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Bell becomes that indirect upgrade by having McCutcheon and/or Yelich handle CF, Taylor to 4th OF.

The big question is avoiding the overpay. I'd send Gray, Garcia, and Jason Alexander.

LF: Yelich

SS: Adames

1B: Bell

DH: Tellez

CF: McCutcheon

3B: Urias

RF: Renfroe

? Narvaez/Caratini

2B: Wong

Yelich is a bad defender in LF, he'd be laughable in CF. McCutchen is below average but passable in CF in Miller Park, but in any decent sized outfield we don't really want him out there. San Diego, NYM, LAD, SF, St Louis...all bigger parks and our most likely matchups in a potential postseason series. So those away games you have to run Taylor. I think it's pretty darn important we add a CF to avoid that issue.

[KeithStone53151]

4 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Bell becomes that indirect upgrade by having McCutcheon and/or Yelich handle CF, Taylor to 4th OF.

The big question is avoiding the overpay. I'd send Gray, Garcia, and Jason Alexander.

LF: Yelich

SS: Adames

1B: Bell

DH: Tellez

CF: McCutcheon

3B: Urias

RF: Renfroe

? Narvaez/Caratini

2B: Wong

Yelich is a bad defender in LF, he'd be laughable in CF. McCutchen is below average but passable in CF in Miller Park, but in any decent sized outfield we don't really want him out there. San Diego, NYM, LAD, SF, St Louis...all bigger parks and our most likely matchups in a potential postseason series. So those away games you have to run Taylor. I think it's pretty darn important we add a CF to avoid that issue.

[monty57]

Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." 

My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental.

I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell.

Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.

[monty57]

Alcides Escobar got brought up as a comp for what Turang could be if he doesn't hit as well as we'd like, so I'll use him. I believe Escobar's final arby year was 2014, so in his career through 2014, he provided 9.0 fWAR. How much WAR would we get from Bell this year? Maybe 2 if he continues having the best year of his career. Maybe none if he "regresses to the mean." 

My son found a site (I'll have to ask him where it was) that showed the WAR gained/lost in historical Brewer trades. Almost every trade Melvin made ended up with the Brewers trading away more WAR than they received. Almost every trade made by Stearns has brought back more WAR to the Brewers than the team has traded away. Stearns would be doing this move, so I highly doubt Turang is traded for a rental.

I believe that Turang is the odds-on favorite to take over the starting 2B position next year, allowing the team to save roughly $8M on Wong's option. Just that probably provides us as much or more value than we'd get out of Bell for the season. Throw in the 6 seasons of underpaid "team control" we'll get from him, and there is no way I'd trade Turang for Bell.

Bell is certainly a target for the Brewers, but I highly doubt we'll give up anyone who could be playing on the Brewers' MLB team in the next year or two, unless it's someone who could be vying for a 4th/5th OF spot like Gray or Lutz.

[monty57]

13 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

In essence, Kolton Wong, but for $800K a year instead of a few million.

Heck if the Nats will take Severino in the deal, that opens a spot for Turang as an option in CF. Wong also played a little center, and wasn't awful if you want to limit Taylor.

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez.

I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

[monty57]

13 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

In essence, Kolton Wong, but for $800K a year instead of a few million.

Heck if the Nats will take Severino in the deal, that opens a spot for Turang as an option in CF. Wong also played a little center, and wasn't awful if you want to limit Taylor.

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez.

I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

[clancyphile]

2 hours ago, monty57 said:

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez.

I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

Feliciano is also on the 40-man. I see Caratini as the #1 for 2023, with Feliciano being broken in. Maybe Reetz on the outside if they want to go bat-first.

[clancyphile]

2 hours ago, monty57 said:

I think the Brewers are holding three catchers because they want Severino and Caratini for next year. If a catcher gets traded, it's probably Narvaez.

I don't know how Turang grades out in CF defensively. I have thought that Frelick could be an option to bring up if they can't find a CF by the trade deadline, but I guess Turang could fill that role if they think his defense there is good enough for an everyday MLB CF.

Feliciano is also on the 40-man. I see Caratini as the #1 for 2023, with Feliciano being broken in. Maybe Reetz on the outside if they want to go bat-first.

[nate82]

17 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Feliciano is also on the 40-man. I see Caratini as the #1 for 2023, with Feliciano being broken in. Maybe Reetz on the outside if they want to go bat-first.

Reetz is a better defensive catcher than Feliciano is right now.  Feliciano is still having trouble with passed balls and other issues at catcher defensively.  Offensively there is not much for Feliciano to prove at AAA it is his defense that is holding him back right now.  Catcher is one of the positions you can't really ignore defense you basically have to be Joe Mauer or Buster Posey good offensively for that to happen.  

[nate82]

17 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Feliciano is also on the 40-man. I see Caratini as the #1 for 2023, with Feliciano being broken in. Maybe Reetz on the outside if they want to go bat-first.

Reetz is a better defensive catcher than Feliciano is right now.  Feliciano is still having trouble with passed balls and other issues at catcher defensively.  Offensively there is not much for Feliciano to prove at AAA it is his defense that is holding him back right now.  Catcher is one of the positions you can't really ignore defense you basically have to be Joe Mauer or Buster Posey good offensively for that to happen.  

[SandyTolan]

6 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Yes. If Turang reaches that stat line that I previously posted as his prospective ceiling, he WOULD be a borderline all-star, and should not be traded for a rental like Bell. But we don't know that he will become that.

Like most prospects, he probably will not reach that ceiling. I would guess that over his first 6 years in MLB, his 6 year slash line would MOST LIKELY look more like .240/.330/.380 (with good defense, speed, lefty-stick). Still a legitimate big-leaguer, but pretty replaceable. If they trade THAT player for Bell, I wouldn't lose sleep over it. But as I previously stated, I'm not sure Bell is even worth it. If the team is dead set on "going for it," (whatever that means), then they need to trade like they mean it. They need to trade whomever it takes to get a guy like Soto/Reynolds/[insert superstar here].

That would not be my preference, as I think I'd prefer that they simply sit tight this year (probably an unpopular opinion).

Since mid-June, Turang has been on fire - .326/.441/.465/.886.  That is 6+ weeks of sustained production, 152 PAs.  I think he has figured something out and is proving his critics were a bit premature in their "MLB utility only" evaluations.  I agree it would be giving up on him way too soon - would be a huge mistake to move him for a rental.  Much as I'd like Bell - would love to have Bell - not for Turang, unless of course they throw in Soto.   

[SandyTolan]

6 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Yes. If Turang reaches that stat line that I previously posted as his prospective ceiling, he WOULD be a borderline all-star, and should not be traded for a rental like Bell. But we don't know that he will become that.

Like most prospects, he probably will not reach that ceiling. I would guess that over his first 6 years in MLB, his 6 year slash line would MOST LIKELY look more like .240/.330/.380 (with good defense, speed, lefty-stick). Still a legitimate big-leaguer, but pretty replaceable. If they trade THAT player for Bell, I wouldn't lose sleep over it. But as I previously stated, I'm not sure Bell is even worth it. If the team is dead set on "going for it," (whatever that means), then they need to trade like they mean it. They need to trade whomever it takes to get a guy like Soto/Reynolds/[insert superstar here].

That would not be my preference, as I think I'd prefer that they simply sit tight this year (probably an unpopular opinion).

Since mid-June, Turang has been on fire - .326/.441/.465/.886.  That is 6+ weeks of sustained production, 152 PAs.  I think he has figured something out and is proving his critics were a bit premature in their "MLB utility only" evaluations.  I agree it would be giving up on him way too soon - would be a huge mistake to move him for a rental.  Much as I'd like Bell - would love to have Bell - not for Turang, unless of course they throw in Soto.   

[SandyTolan]

Also, Turang's K rate during his torrid last six weeks:  18 percent.  BB rate: 14 percent.

[SandyTolan]

Also, Turang's K rate during his torrid last six weeks:  18 percent.  BB rate: 14 percent.

[monty57]

4 minutes ago, SandyTolan said:

Since mid-June, Turang has been on fire - .326/.441/.465/.886.  That is 6+ weeks of sustained production, 152 PAs.  I think he has figured something out and is proving his critics were a bit premature in their "MLB utility only" evaluations.  I agree it would be giving up on him way too soon - would be a huge mistake to move him for a rental.  Much as I'd like Bell - would love to have Bell - not for Turang, unless of course they throw in Soto.   

Everyone should also remember that Turang has always been young for his level. He's still only 22, and was moved to AAA last year when he was 21. It should be understandable if he doesn't immediately hit the ground running. I'm optimistic about his future, and as I said earlier, I think he'll be our opening day 2B (probably platooned with Brosseau) in 2023.

[monty57]

4 minutes ago, SandyTolan said:

Since mid-June, Turang has been on fire - .326/.441/.465/.886.  That is 6+ weeks of sustained production, 152 PAs.  I think he has figured something out and is proving his critics were a bit premature in their "MLB utility only" evaluations.  I agree it would be giving up on him way too soon - would be a huge mistake to move him for a rental.  Much as I'd like Bell - would love to have Bell - not for Turang, unless of course they throw in Soto.   

Everyone should also remember that Turang has always been young for his level. He's still only 22, and was moved to AAA last year when he was 21. It should be understandable if he doesn't immediately hit the ground running. I'm optimistic about his future, and as I said earlier, I think he'll be our opening day 2B (probably platooned with Brosseau) in 2023.

[bensheeps]

I don't think we're giving Arnold and Stearns enough credit.

Waiting to get Bell (and/or Soto) until Monday so Washington can beat up on the Cardinals this weekend...pure genius.

[bensheeps]

I don't think we're giving Arnold and Stearns enough credit.

Waiting to get Bell (and/or Soto) until Monday so Washington can beat up on the Cardinals this weekend...pure genius.

[edfunderburk]

How about Hiura & a top 20-30 pitcher for Bell

[edfunderburk]

How about Hiura & a top 20-30 pitcher for Bell

[sveumrules]

On 7/29/2022 at 5:37 PM, bensheeps said:

I don't think we're giving Arnold and Stearns enough credit.

Waiting to get Bell (and/or Soto) until Monday so Washington can beat up on the Cardinals this weekend...pure genius.

Bell’s three run HR in the 7th provides the winning run for WAS tonight.

Crew now four games up on STL.