Trade Rumor: Brewers Pursuing Nationals' Josh Bell

[endaround]

Calling a bunch of 22-23 year old pitchers scuffling in A mid tier prospects is generous.  Bell would likely cost less but the Nationals might want the value in one prospect than multiple.   Something like Kelly and Erceg.

[endaround]

Calling a bunch of 22-23 year old pitchers scuffling in A mid tier prospects is generous.  Bell would likely cost less but the Nationals might want the value in one prospect than multiple.   Something like Kelly and Erceg.

[Lathund]

14 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

With Benentendi getting 3 mid tier prospects (15-30)I would think it makes Bell's price pretty clear. 2 mid tier prospects and 1 higher propsect should do it. Who knows what it will look like but my guess is they would want Turang/Mitchell as the headliner (at least). I would be hesitant to send on of those guys for a couple months of Bell.

Yeah I would absolutely not do that for a rental like this. With the many arbitration eligible players on the roster, there will be very little payroll room unless Mark A is willing to allow a higher budget (Which he most likely will not). The prospects who are close to MLB ready will play a big part in allowing the Brewers to handle that. To be able to keep the big contributors around, they'd have to cut around the edges instead, and having prospects ready to step in is key to that even if the prospects aren't stars. 

So if it takes a better prospect to make the trade, I'd prefer it to be someone further away from the majors, even if their upside is greater. So say one of those toolsy prospects with upside to dream on, but questionable hit tools. Sometimes they find their way and become great players, but more often they're Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison. And either way, they'll be in MLB only after Burnes, Woodruff etc. are all free agents anyway. So someone like Hedbert Perez could be a headliner. Now I'm a prospect hugger and not a huge Bell fan so I wouldn't like it overly much either, but it's the type of return that won't impact the Brewers for years, if it ever does. 

 

 

[Lathund]

14 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

With Benentendi getting 3 mid tier prospects (15-30)I would think it makes Bell's price pretty clear. 2 mid tier prospects and 1 higher propsect should do it. Who knows what it will look like but my guess is they would want Turang/Mitchell as the headliner (at least). I would be hesitant to send on of those guys for a couple months of Bell.

Yeah I would absolutely not do that for a rental like this. With the many arbitration eligible players on the roster, there will be very little payroll room unless Mark A is willing to allow a higher budget (Which he most likely will not). The prospects who are close to MLB ready will play a big part in allowing the Brewers to handle that. To be able to keep the big contributors around, they'd have to cut around the edges instead, and having prospects ready to step in is key to that even if the prospects aren't stars. 

So if it takes a better prospect to make the trade, I'd prefer it to be someone further away from the majors, even if their upside is greater. So say one of those toolsy prospects with upside to dream on, but questionable hit tools. Sometimes they find their way and become great players, but more often they're Lewis Brinson and Monte Harrison. And either way, they'll be in MLB only after Burnes, Woodruff etc. are all free agents anyway. So someone like Hedbert Perez could be a headliner. Now I'm a prospect hugger and not a huge Bell fan so I wouldn't like it overly much either, but it's the type of return that won't impact the Brewers for years, if it ever does. 

 

 

[KeithStone53151]

Bell I think would be one of a few moves that would definitely move the needle. Bell would take atbats against lefties from Tellez and righties from McCutchen. You could more or less use those 3 guys to cover the 2 spots and hide the greatest weaknesses of the 3. You'd also have a really nice PH option late in the game. I remember in the last couple days we had Caratini come up in a key PH spot, as much as I like Caratini...I'd rather see Bell or Tellez take that at bat.

I don't think Bell would be excessively expensive. There are probably other 1b/dh options available so it's not like we're gonna send Joey Weimer to get the deal done. And if we don't get Bell, as I said there are other 1b/dh options so we'll be fine.

[KeithStone53151]

Bell I think would be one of a few moves that would definitely move the needle. Bell would take atbats against lefties from Tellez and righties from McCutchen. You could more or less use those 3 guys to cover the 2 spots and hide the greatest weaknesses of the 3. You'd also have a really nice PH option late in the game. I remember in the last couple days we had Caratini come up in a key PH spot, as much as I like Caratini...I'd rather see Bell or Tellez take that at bat.

I don't think Bell would be excessively expensive. There are probably other 1b/dh options available so it's not like we're gonna send Joey Weimer to get the deal done. And if we don't get Bell, as I said there are other 1b/dh options so we'll be fine.

[StearnsFTW]

I'd trade Turang for Bell in an instant.   I'm not very high on Turang though, some are.

I personally would not deal Kelly for him though. 

[StearnsFTW]

I'd trade Turang for Bell in an instant.   I'm not very high on Turang though, some are.

I personally would not deal Kelly for him though. 

[Playing Catch]

I wouldn't lose sleep over losing Turang, as I agree that his ceiling looks pretty limited. I mean, what is his ceiling? At his peak, he might be a borderline all-star on a bad team? (.290/.370/.430)? It's really hard for me to imagine getting more production than that from him, and he very well could end up being significantly less than that. At the same time, he's a very good defender, fast, and a lefty-stick, so a nice player to have for the next 6 seasons.

My problem is that this year's rental market is pretty weak. No one is a sure-fire improvement, and I believe that includes Bell (as Tellez has shown flashes and Bell has shown months-long slumps). I mentioned it in a different thread, but I wonder if a Tellez for Bell swap would make sense for both teams?

I dunno, Bell just doesn't inspire me. (Also, I am guilty of really liking Tellez).

[Playing Catch]

I wouldn't lose sleep over losing Turang, as I agree that his ceiling looks pretty limited. I mean, what is his ceiling? At his peak, he might be a borderline all-star on a bad team? (.290/.370/.430)? It's really hard for me to imagine getting more production than that from him, and he very well could end up being significantly less than that. At the same time, he's a very good defender, fast, and a lefty-stick, so a nice player to have for the next 6 seasons.

My problem is that this year's rental market is pretty weak. No one is a sure-fire improvement, and I believe that includes Bell (as Tellez has shown flashes and Bell has shown months-long slumps). I mentioned it in a different thread, but I wonder if a Tellez for Bell swap would make sense for both teams?

I dunno, Bell just doesn't inspire me. (Also, I am guilty of really liking Tellez).

[CheeseheadInQC]

If Turang gives the Brewers that, I would be thrilled. That is a top 5 shortstop stat line.

[CheeseheadInQC]

If Turang gives the Brewers that, I would be thrilled. That is a top 5 shortstop stat line.

[JackNicholson1974]

I would not trade Turang or Kelly for Bell. Especially Kelly. I personally think something like Joe Gray Jr and Victor Castaneda would be about right. Maybe a third in that neighborhood.

[JackNicholson1974]

I would not trade Turang or Kelly for Bell. Especially Kelly. I personally think something like Joe Gray Jr and Victor Castaneda would be about right. Maybe a third in that neighborhood.

[Lathund]

1 minute ago, Playing Catch said:

I wouldn't lose sleep over losing Turang, as I agree that his ceiling looks pretty limited. I mean, what is his ceiling? At his peak, he might be a borderline all-star on a bad team? (.290/.370/.430)? It's really hard for me to imagine getting more production than that from him, and he very well could end up being significantly less than that. At the same time, he's a very good defender, fast, and a lefty-stick, so a nice player to have for the next 6 seasons.

That player is significantly more valuable than 2 months of Josh Bell though. I mean even if the power never shows up at all and he's Alcides Escobar instead, I'd still take that every day with that defense. Or at the very least use him as part of a trade for something more long-term. What people tend to overlook with prospects is the impact of uncertainty. I mean I agree that Turang is extremely unlikely to top 4 WAR at his best even if we take the more optimistic end of the projections. But I also think he's highly likely to at least be Escobar or better. With Peterson a free agent and Wong with a team option that looks like it might get declined, even a SS/2B/CF utility man for minimum salary and with 3 option years remaining is useful. And I think he's almost certainly better than that. 

Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily lose much sleep over it either, it's more that I find it to be a short-sighted and unnecessary move. We're looking to compete over the next couple of years while we still have Burnes/Woodruff/Adames etc. So why trade away players who can contribute to that team (Even if it's peripherally) when you could trade players who, even if they pan out, will only do so in 2025 or beyond? I'd instead look to A-ball and below for the prospects we should trade this deadline. 

[Lathund]

1 minute ago, Playing Catch said:

I wouldn't lose sleep over losing Turang, as I agree that his ceiling looks pretty limited. I mean, what is his ceiling? At his peak, he might be a borderline all-star on a bad team? (.290/.370/.430)? It's really hard for me to imagine getting more production than that from him, and he very well could end up being significantly less than that. At the same time, he's a very good defender, fast, and a lefty-stick, so a nice player to have for the next 6 seasons.

That player is significantly more valuable than 2 months of Josh Bell though. I mean even if the power never shows up at all and he's Alcides Escobar instead, I'd still take that every day with that defense. Or at the very least use him as part of a trade for something more long-term. What people tend to overlook with prospects is the impact of uncertainty. I mean I agree that Turang is extremely unlikely to top 4 WAR at his best even if we take the more optimistic end of the projections. But I also think he's highly likely to at least be Escobar or better. With Peterson a free agent and Wong with a team option that looks like it might get declined, even a SS/2B/CF utility man for minimum salary and with 3 option years remaining is useful. And I think he's almost certainly better than that. 

Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily lose much sleep over it either, it's more that I find it to be a short-sighted and unnecessary move. We're looking to compete over the next couple of years while we still have Burnes/Woodruff/Adames etc. So why trade away players who can contribute to that team (Even if it's peripherally) when you could trade players who, even if they pan out, will only do so in 2025 or beyond? I'd instead look to A-ball and below for the prospects we should trade this deadline. 

[StearnsFTW]

14 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

If Turang gives the Brewers that, I would be thrilled. That is a top 5 shortstop stat line.

Yeah, if I thought he could do that, I'd never deal him for Bell. 

[StearnsFTW]

14 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

If Turang gives the Brewers that, I would be thrilled. That is a top 5 shortstop stat line.

Yeah, if I thought he could do that, I'd never deal him for Bell. 

[StearnsFTW]

8 minutes ago, Lathund said:

That player is significantly more valuable than 2 months of Josh Bell though. I mean even if the power never shows up at all and he's Alcides Escobar instead, I'd still take that every day with that defense. Or at the very least use him as part of a trade for something more long-term. What people tend to overlook with prospects is the impact of uncertainty. I mean I agree that Turang is extremely unlikely to top 4 WAR at his best even if we take the more optimistic end of the projections. But I also think he's highly likely to at least be Escobar or better. With Peterson a free agent and Wong with a team option that looks like it might get declined, even a SS/2B/CF utility man for minimum salary and with 3 option years remaining is useful. And I think he's almost certainly better than that. 

Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily lose much sleep over it either, it's more that I find it to be a short-sighted and unnecessary move. We're looking to compete over the next couple of years while we still have Burnes/Woodruff/Adames etc. So why trade away players who can contribute to that team (Even if it's peripherally) when you could trade players who, even if they pan out, will only do so in 2025 or beyond? I'd instead look to A-ball and below for the prospects we should trade this deadline. 

Good post. 

 

To answer your last question, I think this is the last year we have all of Burnes, Woodruff and Hader.  In short, despite the obvious problems, I think this is our best shot at a World Series.  Hope to be wrong.

 

[StearnsFTW]

8 minutes ago, Lathund said:

That player is significantly more valuable than 2 months of Josh Bell though. I mean even if the power never shows up at all and he's Alcides Escobar instead, I'd still take that every day with that defense. Or at the very least use him as part of a trade for something more long-term. What people tend to overlook with prospects is the impact of uncertainty. I mean I agree that Turang is extremely unlikely to top 4 WAR at his best even if we take the more optimistic end of the projections. But I also think he's highly likely to at least be Escobar or better. With Peterson a free agent and Wong with a team option that looks like it might get declined, even a SS/2B/CF utility man for minimum salary and with 3 option years remaining is useful. And I think he's almost certainly better than that. 

Anyway, I wouldn't necessarily lose much sleep over it either, it's more that I find it to be a short-sighted and unnecessary move. We're looking to compete over the next couple of years while we still have Burnes/Woodruff/Adames etc. So why trade away players who can contribute to that team (Even if it's peripherally) when you could trade players who, even if they pan out, will only do so in 2025 or beyond? I'd instead look to A-ball and below for the prospects we should trade this deadline. 

Good post. 

 

To answer your last question, I think this is the last year we have all of Burnes, Woodruff and Hader.  In short, despite the obvious problems, I think this is our best shot at a World Series.  Hope to be wrong.

 

[titletownking]

14 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Good post. 

 

To answer your last question, I think this is the last year we have all of Burnes, Woodruff and Hader.  In short, despite the obvious problems, I think this is our best shot at a World Series.  Hope to be wrong.

 

All of those players are under control for next year as well. That peak Turang slash line you posted would set him among the top SS in baseball. Brewers will need cheap options with arb raises and extensions. 

[titletownking]

14 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Good post. 

 

To answer your last question, I think this is the last year we have all of Burnes, Woodruff and Hader.  In short, despite the obvious problems, I think this is our best shot at a World Series.  Hope to be wrong.

 

All of those players are under control for next year as well. That peak Turang slash line you posted would set him among the top SS in baseball. Brewers will need cheap options with arb raises and extensions. 

[StearnsFTW]

19 minutes ago, titletownking said:

All of those players are under control for next year as well. That peak Turang slash line you posted would set him among the top SS in baseball. Brewers will need cheap options with arb raises and extensions. 

--I know, but I seriously doubt we keep all of them next year.   I think we trade 2 of them this offseason.

 

--I didn't post that.  I just quoted it.   I don't think there's any real chance he hits like that, hence my indifference to trading him.

[StearnsFTW]

19 minutes ago, titletownking said:

All of those players are under control for next year as well. That peak Turang slash line you posted would set him among the top SS in baseball. Brewers will need cheap options with arb raises and extensions. 

--I know, but I seriously doubt we keep all of them next year.   I think we trade 2 of them this offseason.

 

--I didn't post that.  I just quoted it.   I don't think there's any real chance he hits like that, hence my indifference to trading him.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Why would Bell bring back substantially more than Benentendi? Bell does provide more power, but he's also more streaky career-wise. Also, Benentendi is a solid if not elite corner OF defender who could also play CF. Bell provides no defensive value.

This isn't the first time you've denigrated Josh Bell, but you can't have it both ways. Sure Benintendi is a better defender than Josh Bell, but its not even a comparison as to which is the better hitter. This year alone Bell's OPS in 90 points higher than Benintendi's. You can also argue Bell is the more patient hitter with a .387 OBP and a batting average of .302, while Benintendi's OBP is also .387 but with a .320 batting average. Bell's career OBP is .353 to Benintendi's .352. 

As for being "streaky," players are going to have good months and bad months, For example, Benintendi's OPS was .664 in June. Josh Bell wasn't alone in having a down year during the covid ball season, but pretty much has been the model of consistency year in year out his entire career.

I have no idea if Josh Bell will wind up with the Brewers or not, but as I've posted before every contender in the league can find at bats for an .877 OPS hitter.