Article: Grading the Brewers - The Outfield (Pt 2)

[Kyle Ginsbach]

The outfield, laden with veteran bats, was supposed to be the engine that drives the Brewers offense. But one of the pistons stopped firing, and the Brew Crew is searching for solutions. See if you agree with our grades.

 

The MLB season has reached its halfway point. With the All-Star break and the festivities taking the full front of attention, it may be time to take a break from the fun and reflect on the first half of the season. Like a teacher handing out the dreaded report card, it's time to see how the Brewers fared in half number one. If you would like to see the infielders grades, check out yesterday’s story.

Before jumping into the grading breakdown, it's important to lay some guidelines. Grading is based on the players performance through the first 93 games of the 2022 season. Listed with the given grades is the players slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) as of July 18, and either their OAA (Outs Above Average) or percentile grades in pitch framing. The grades are also based on both the offensive and defensive value the players should have been reasonably expected to provide, and is completely subjective. The purpose of the grades are simply to reflect, and not to promote any distaste towards any certain player.

Christian Yelich * .251/.347/.379 * -3 OAA * Left Field
Grade: B-
It’s been an uphill climb ever since Chirstain Yelich ended his 2019 season with a knee injury. His MVP-Caliber production has faded, but the new Yelich hasn’t been nearly as bad as some fans would want you to believe. After a slow start, the Brewers moved Yelich to the leadoff spot, where he thrived. His slash line batting first sits at .288/.390/.400. The only thing Yelich is truly missing from years past is his power.

Looking forward, fans can see Yelich is closer to regaining his former self than has been since the injury. Advanced metrics have always loved Yelich as a hitter, with this year being no exception. It remains to be seen what numbers he actually posts in the second half.

Tyrone Taylor * .228/.277/.423 * 2 OAA * Center Field(?)
Grade: C+
Expectations for Taylor coming into the season looked to be him filling the role as the 5th outfielder on the roster. But Lorenzo Cain’s disastrous start led to him being designated for assignment, and when injuries began to pile up, Taylor was thrown into a bigger role, with varying success.

He has struggled to get on-base, posting the lowest OBP of anyone still with the team. However, he’s shown flashes of power and clutch hitting, with 9 HR, and a .375 AVG with RISP. His defense has been good too, but the Brewers would like the bat to be a bit better.

Taylor is an easy player to root for, and he’ll probably see a return to the lineup after the All-Star Break, assuming there are not setbacks in his recovery from a concussion. It remains to be seen whether or not the Brewers will add another center fielder at the deadline, so it’s hard to predict what kind of second half Taylor is capable of having.

Andrew McCutchen * .255/.317/.386 * -1 OAA * Designated Hitter
Grade: B-
A former MVP in Pittsburgh, Andrew McCutchen was a late addition in the offseason. The 35-year-old struggled early in the season after a brief hot start, but has picked it up as of late. Serving as the Brewers primary DH, Cutch doesn’t see much time in the field, but has been solid when asked to play the corner outfield spots.

McCutchen's slash line since June 1st sits at .296/.368/.461. This could be omen for good things to come, as he is too good of a player to be posting league average numbers over a full season.

Hunter Renfroe * .243/.294/.477 * 1 OAA * Right Field
Grade: B
Hunter Renfroe was acquired in a last second deal before the lockout in a trade that sent Jackie Bradley Jr. back to Boston. If fans remember the season JBJ had last year, it’s easy to conclude Renfroe has been much, much better. After a slow start he began to hit better, but numerous injuries have sidelined him for a large chunk of games. His defense, especially his arm, has been as advertised in RF, which is a huge plus too.

If Renfroe can stay healthy the rest of the way through the season, the consistent playing time will allow him to be a key contributor to the Brewers both offensively and defensively. That remains to be seen though.

Now it's your turn. Are the grades fair? Would you give extra credit or demerits to some of the players? If so, let's hear it in the comments below. 

 

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[brewers888]

Yelich to me gets a C for getting on base at a good level but no higher due to his complete lack of power and bad defense.

Taylor deserves a C for being decent defensively and coming up with clutch hits but I can't go higher due to his awful OBP

McCutchen gets a C- for being completely mediocre and the fact that he was our "big" acquisition and he is just not good enough to be playing everyday in the middle of the lineup. He doesn't set the lineup so its obviously not his doing but he is just not an everyday player or middle of the lineup bat for a contending team.

Renfroe gets a C for his power and decent enough defense but he's been hurt too much and is another on this team not getting on base enough to receive a higher grade.

The outfield overall has been better than the infield but when you consider how much money we have tied up in it the production is not nearly good enough. 

[NBBrewFan]

3 hours ago, Kyle Ginsbach said:

After a slow start, the Brewers moved Yelich to the leadoff spot, where he thrived. His slash line batting first sits at .288/.390/.400. The only thing Yelich is truly missing from years past is his power.

I can't predict where his stats go for the remainder of the year, but looking at his line for this year and last it's clear they are pretty much identical.  Over the last 854 PAs he's been consistently worse than the Marlin version and the MVP Brewers version.  He had a hot streak early on that gave a hint that maybe he had turned it around, but since then he's replicating 2021.  At his current pace he's a 1.9 WAR per 600 PA player and for $23+M per year that is a really bad investment.  Given the salary tied up in him anything higher than a C is generous.  

McCutcheon is at negative WAR for 2022 so no matter how you subset the data he has been worse than a replacement level player at a $8.5M investment.  He's a penny stock trading on the big board.  Plenty of upside, but at the end of the day still a fraction of the value needed.  Grade = D.

I've already expressed my admiration for Hunter Renfroe's abilities with the bases empty (he's the best Brewer batter), but he continues to have a huge gap between men on base and bases empty (611 OPS to 887).  He's closing the gap, but unfortunately it appears the bigger movement has been to reduce his bases empty offense more than increase his men on base offense.  While his gap is now 270ish when it was over 400 a month ago it would be nice if that regression wasn't at the expense of his overall production.  Grade = B-

I'd like to see more from Taylor, but the Brewers spent a ton of PAs on Cain to prove to themselves he was toast and now Tyrone has been battling injury further continuing his sporadic playing time.  If he can stay healthy and the Brewers slot him in at CF consistently we might finally see what he can do as a regular. Grade = C

[Brock Beauchamp]

Personally, I'd knock half a grade off each guy except Renfroe, who has been a pleasant surprise. I worried about him - probably unfairly - before the season but he has been just fine with the bat and pretty good with the glove.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I think Yelich and McCutchen's grades are a little too high.  Yelich because he's getting paid to be the best hitter on the team and he is no where near that.  McCutchen was so bad at the start that even his hot streak has left his numbers overall poor for a DH (or bad outfielder).

You did not rate Jonathan Davis.  Yes its only 70 PA, but he has exceeded my expectations (although they were very low to begin with).  His OBP is slightly higher than Yelich's at 348, except he has almost no slugging to speak of.  His defense has been somewhere between above average and outstanding.  Still, we need an upgrade here if we want to get to the playoffs.  I'll give him a C considering I had zero expectation for him and he is getting minimum salary.

[Brock Beauchamp]

One thing to keep in mind about grades is "objective vs subjective".

Yelich and Tellez are great examples of the differences between those two values.

Objectively, Yelich is the better player and it's not particularly close. He's a pretty good MLB starter in LF. Tellez is just a hair above replacement level.

Subjectively, it's a wildly different story. Yelich is paid a boatload of money and has the expectations that go along with that paycheck. Inversely, my expectations of Tellez were quite low; the mere fact he is treading water as an every day first baseman is a pleasant surprise and might warrant a B- grade under a subjective system.

So how do you want to grade each of these players, objectively or subjectively? Neither is wrong depending on perspective.