Article: It Doesn't Matter How, Keston Hiura Needs More MLB At-Bats

[Kyle Ginsbach]

The Brewers have a Keston Hiura problem. Hiura is a one-of-a-kind type of player, but not in the way you expect.

In one of the most odd moves of the year thus far, the Brewer optioned Keston Hiura to AAA on July 13, despite him hitting quite well. Should Hiura come back, there might be a certain way the Brewers should aim to utilize Hiura in the future.

Keston Hiura is a one-of-a-kind type of player, but not in the way you expect. The career path of  Hiura has been well documented among Brewer fans. The 9th overall pick in 2017, Hiura shot through the Brewers minor league system using his raw power and bat-to-ball skills. When he came up in 2019, all he did was rake. His slash line in 2019 was .303/.368/.570, and while his defense at second base was a concern, the bat made it well worth it. 

The shortened 2020 season was a different story though. Hiura struck out a NL leading 85 times in just 59 games, and his numbers suffered because of it. If 2020 was a bad dream, 2021 was a nightmare. His strikeout problems persisted, his defense faltered, and his numbers deflated for the second straight season. Because of it, Hiura spent the majority of the year bouncing between AAA and the big league club.

With the burden of expectations greatly decreased coming into the current year, fans may have pushed Hiura to the back of their minds. But he brought value, and people have slowly started to take notice. At the halfway point of the season, Hiura’s slash line sits at .238/.354/.451, good enough for a .805 OPS and a OPS+ of 127. His defense, often branded as a major negative, has been only slightly below average. Hiura’s having his best season since his rookie year, and not only is he not getting playing time, he’s spending time in the minor leagues yet again.

You may ask yourself why that might be, and it’s not necessarily because the Brewers are blind to his value. Hiura has seen a good quantity of both lefties and righties in 2022, but Hiura is hitting just .161/.277/.214 versus lefties, and .303/.418/.652 against righties. Yes, that’s incredibly unusual, because Hiura bats right-handed. Usually, one would expect to see exactly the opposite split.

This isn’t just a small sample size type of thing either, unless small sample size means “Hiura’s whole career.” He’s had 665 career plate appearances against right-handed pitching and boasts a career .861 OPS. But versus left-handed pitchers, he has an OPS of just .574. 

It is almost unheard of to have this kind of reverse splits, unless a player is actively being hidden from facing good right-handed pitching, and only exposed to bad right-handed pitching. There isn’t a lot of evidence that this has happened to Hiura in the past. He’s had 71% of his career plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers, almost exactly the ratio one would expect from a player playing every day.

But this year has been different. A nearly 50/50 ratio could suggest Hiura is being hidden versus right-handed pitching. Is Hiura being hidden from good pitching? Or is he simply being hidden from playing time in general?

Here’s a list of opposing right handed starters Hiura has and hasn’t started against in the past month.

RHP Hiura Started Against

• JT Brubaker, 4.02 ERA

• Z. Thompson, 4.09 ERA

• A. Sampson, 3.33 ERA

• M. Swarmer, 5.03 ERA 

• R. Contreras, 3.78 ERA

• A. Wainwright, 3.00 ERA

• M. Mikolas, 2.62 ERA

RHP Hiura Didn’t Start Against

• Z. Thompson, 4.09 ERA

• B. Wilson, 6.60 ERA

• JT Brubaker, 4.02 ERA

• S. Baz, 5.00 ERA

• J. Berríos, 5.38 ERA

• A. Manoah, 2.34 ERA

• T. Megill, 5.07 ERA

Looking at the list of righty starters the Brewers have faced in the last month, you can see Hiura isn’t getting held back against elite righties, and in fact, his starts against righties are random. 

As referenced earlier, the split this year is even more pronounced. Perhaps that is because he is facing fewer top-tier right-handers. Perhaps it's because he’s simply not getting the playing time he deserves. But it’s odd that the Brewers are looking at reverse splits and batting him less against his strong side, even if it is untraditional. Certainly, a .476 OPS versus left-handed pitchers isn’t something they should be trying to leverage more.

There's other reasons for newly inspired faith in Hiura too. He's posted a career high walk rate of 11%. His hard hit rate nearly matches that of his rookie year, and though his K% is up, his whiff rate shows his strikeout rate could go down. Hiura's also seeing the highest fly ball rate of his career, which is promising for a power hitter like Hiura. His Barrel% sits at 18.2%, nearly 4 percent higher than his career average. . 

There’s a lot going on here, but if the Brewers want to maximize Hiura's value, or come closer to solving this reverse splits mystery, they should be finding a way to pencil his name in the lineup whenever there's a righty on the mound. 

It really shouldn't be hard for the Brewers to find Hiura playing time either. He has shown he can play 3 positions, those being 2B, 1B, and LF. The Brewers know they can slot him in at DH too. The answer shouldn't be if they give him playing time, it should be when. 

It truly is a simple fix. More righties, less lefties, and the Brewers have themself a very productive offensive player, and an improving defensive one. With the Brewers almost certainly looking to make trade moves in the coming month, they might want to look within first. Keston Hiura can - and has - hit, and the Brewers should give him the chance to do it more often.

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[damuelle]

I thought we’d trade him rather than sacrificing his last player option.

But I’m trying to be optimistic that this demotion to AAA and burning of his last player option will essentially force us to keep him around until the end of the 2022 season.

Who knows, maybe he’ll pull a Ryon Healy and bat clean-up in a playoff elimination game.

[Jim French Stepstool]

He hasn't shown up in a box score for Nashville since being demoted. Now I learned he's physically still with the team in SF. There's a lot to sort through--the trade deadline, will Taylor make it back soon, the 3 catcher thing, and now Hiura. This might be the most interesting trade deadline since Sabathia.

The guy has some thunder in his bat, no doubt. But when you take in the full picture-----yeah, he's having his best season since his rookie year, but I think that's an indictment of the ugly 2020-2021 stretch more than anything. Even with the DH now available I believe they feel that he's just not a fit here & they're looking for a trade partner.

[Brewcrew82]

5 hours ago, damuelle said:

I thought we’d trade him rather than sacrificing his last player option.

But I’m trying to be optimistic that this demotion to AAA and burning of his last player option will essentially force us to keep him around until the end of the 2022 season.

Who knows, maybe he’ll pull a Ryon Healy and bat clean-up in a playoff elimination game.

Please no. That Ryon Healy experience is right up there with the Mark Kotsay in CF experience...

[Joseph Zarr]

Thought-provoking piece. Thanks for putting it to virtual paper. It certainly will be interesting to discover what they actually have planned - as Daniel said above, the use of that last player option is what surprised me the most. Why would they do that if there isn't some greater play or need here? The move itself was fairly surprising, yes, but the greater context of the move considering what has been happening in and around the ball club gives one a bit of head-scratching. We shall know soon enough.