FanGraphs' ZiPS Midseason Update

[monty57]

Fangraphs has a new article up that I thought would be of interest here:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-midseason-update-for-the-national-league/

They have used the "most robust version of ZiPS" to see where things stand at the halfway point. Spoiler alert, they have the Brewers with a 75.4% chance of making the playoffs, stating that Peralta's injury is a big reason the odds aren't better.

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Fangraphs has a new article up that I thought would be of interest here:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-zips-midseason-update-for-the-national-league/

They have used the "most robust version of ZiPS" to see where things stand at the halfway point. Spoiler alert, they have the Brewers with a 75.4% chance of making the playoffs, stating that Peralta's injury is a big reason the odds aren't better.

Also, worth noting by way of comparison that 538 has them at 83%, with a 73% chance of winning the division. Not a lock, but pretty good odds at this point any way you look at it....

The Peralta injury has definitely been big, but the good news is that he is throwing off a mound which means he's not that far off. Also helps that Corbin and Woody are both dealing right now. 

He also wants us to acquire Joey Gallo, which I'm not too sure about at all. His defense has taken a step down this year and he has been horrible with the bat. I feel like if Stearns was truly interested in Gallo, he would have found a way to get him in the Lucroy trade back in 2016. 

[NBBrewFan]

From the Fangraphs article:

Quote

and having Andrew McCutchen in 2022 is like going to a concert for your favorite band growing up but finding out they’re only going to play stuff from the album released last year.

and:

Playoff odds 

Brewers = 75.4%

Cardinals = 66..8%

WS WIN %

Brewers = 3.7%

Cardinals = 4.4%

Even ZIPS knows the Brewers can't do squat in the playoffs.

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, NBBrewFan said:

From the Fangraphs article:

and:

Playoff odds 

Brewers = 75.4%

Cardinals = 66..8%

WS WIN %

Brewers = 3.7%

Cardinals = 4.4%

Even ZIPS knows the Brewers can't do squat in the playoffs.

Okay. Then, don't watch the rest of the season. ZIPS isn't the "be all end all" of projection systems, either. Fangraphs' main projection system gives the Brewers an 86.6% of making the playoffs and a 5.5% chance of winning the World Series, good for the 6th best odds in all of baseball. Then, there's 538, which also gives them the 6th best World Series odds at 4%. I'll take that as a fan. And a Burnes/Woodruff/Freddy postseason rotation with a Boxberger/Hader/Williams back-end does give them more of a chance than "squat". Does this team have offensive deficiencies? Sure. But those can be remedied far easier than things like having two front-line starting pitchers in Burnes and Woodruff. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

I'm not a fan of acquiring Gallo. But in trying to keep an open mind, as inconsistent as he was with Texas, he's been even worse in New York. That franchise isn't for everyone, and maybe you get a bump simply from him getting out of the fishbowl. He also HAS played CF, but I wouldn't be overly optimistic as to how well. He'd have to come really cheap.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'm not a fan of acquiring Gallo. But in trying to keep an open mind, as inconsistent as he was with Texas, he's been even worse in New York. That franchise isn't for everyone, and maybe you get a bump simply from him getting out of the fishbowl. He also HAS played CF, but I wouldn't be overly optimistic as to how well. He'd have to come really cheap.

Earlier in the season, I was a fan of acquiring Gallo, but I'm now completely off that wagon. And that's because his defense, which has been Gold Glove caliber at every position in the outfield and which provided him a baseline value, has tailed off. Combined with his woeful hitting line thus far, I'm not for taking that risk, unless the Yankees basically give him to us for free. 

[nate82]

3 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'm not a fan of acquiring Gallo. But in trying to keep an open mind, as inconsistent as he was with Texas, he's been even worse in New York. That franchise isn't for everyone, and maybe you get a bump simply from him getting out of the fishbowl. He also HAS played CF, but I wouldn't be overly optimistic as to how well. He'd have to come really cheap.

I think the Yankees would want an MLB player in return for Gallo at a minimum.  The Yankees do need another OF so maybe something like Davis and a lottery ticket may get it done.  

[monty57]

16 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Earlier in the season, I was a fan of acquiring Gallo, but I'm now completely off that wagon. And that's because his defense, which has been Gold Glove caliber at every position in the outfield and which provided him a baseline value, has tailed off. Combined with his woeful hitting line thus far, I'm not for taking that risk, unless the Yankees basically give him to us for free. 

Is there something behind the defense? Usually defense falters due to injury or age. You don't normally see a good fielder forget how to play defense. If he hasn't been permanently injured, and he's still fairly young (28), then it would seem that the defense could get back where it was.

That said, as much as we could use an offensive upgrade, I'm not sure a low-average home run hitter is exactly what we need. We already score most of our runs off of the home run. Gallo does take some walks, but his 2020-2022 batting averages have been .181, .199, and .165. Even in today's baseball, that's pretty bad.

As Brewcrew82 said, the price tag would have to be pretty cheap for him to be worth the Brewers taking him on and hoping he turns things around, especially if they'd take on the remaining $5M or so he's owed this year.

[JosephC]

On 7/7/2022 at 5:34 PM, NBBrewFan said:

From the Fangraphs article:

and:

Playoff odds 

Brewers = 75.4%

Cardinals = 66..8%

WS WIN %

Brewers = 3.7%

Cardinals = 4.4%

Even ZIPS knows the Brewers can't do squat in the playoffs.

It's why, probably for the first time in 30 years, I haven't watched any baseball this season and don't plan on jumping in later in the year.  Just had it with the latest CBA and the way MLB treats small market fans.  If you are perfectly content with being about the 7th best team every year with little chance of getting higher, then have fun.  The ironic part of it is that I have no problem sitting and watching a 100-loss team, I've done it many times in the past, and will admit that some of those bad teams can be pretty fun to watch if they have the right personalities on the team.  But I'm just done with MLB treating small market fans like they are some type of second class citizen.

What is really maddening is that everyone involved in MLB keeps talking about how they are falling behind the other sports in terms of fan interest, and the one thing that sticks out regarding baseball versus those other leagues is that the other leagues have systems in place that put all the teams on a fairly level playing field.  And there is just no debate that the systems in those other leagues have been an overwhelming success.

Can't wait until Attanasio starts crying for more money, because we will immediately get the governor, Milwaukee mayor and county exec (doesn't matter who they are), dropping the "Milwaukee is a major league city" quotes all over us.  Well, it really doesn't feel that way.  B-Leaguers is probably more appropriate. 

[PlayerHader]

2 hours ago, JosephC said:

It's why, probably for the first time in 30 years, I haven't watched any baseball this season and don't plan on jumping in later in the year.  Just had it with the latest CBA and the way MLB treats small market fans.  If you are perfectly content with being about the 7th best team every year with little chance of getting higher, then have fun.  The ironic part of it is that I have no problem sitting and watching a 100-loss team, I've done it many times in the past, and will admit that some of those bad teams can be pretty fun to watch if they have the right personalities on the team.  But I'm just done with MLB treating small market fans like they are some type of second class citizen.

What is really maddening is that everyone involved in MLB keeps talking about how they are falling behind the other sports in terms of fan interest, and the one thing that sticks out regarding baseball versus those other leagues is that the other leagues have systems in place that put all the teams on a fairly level playing field.  And there is just no debate that the systems in those other leagues have been an overwhelming success.

Can't wait until Attanasio starts crying for more money, because we will immediately get the governor, Milwaukee mayor and county exec (doesn't matter who they are), dropping the "Milwaukee is a major league city" quotes all over us.  Well, it really doesn't feel that way.  B-Leaguers is probably more appropriate. 

We were favored by many to win the World Series for a decent portion of last year. It isn’t easy, but I think you’re being dramatic.