Rebuild, retool, trade - how should the Brewers approach the next 1.5 seasons?

[owbc]

Complete rebuilds have fallen out of fashion. When was the last one that actually worked? The downside to a big rebuild is far, far greater than the upside. 

The current playoff structure also favors a retool approach with the goal of making the postseason. It's not worth fighting $200+ million payroll teams for a first round bye. 

34 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

As to the Brewers, it's fiction to believe they can trade All-Star pitching away without taking a step back. For example, without Hader, every pitcher takes one step forward and they're forced to rely on pitchers of the caliber of Gustave, Miguel Sanchez and Trevor Kelley to pitch in higher leverage situations. There is no way to trade Hader and not have the bullpen take a hit. 

The 'ideal' scenario is that retooling is a constant process, there are constantly younger players waiting to step up. Unproven talent doesn't always live up to expectations -- the Rays have certainly gotten worse at SS in the short term without Willy Adames around. However, the Brewers' pitching core isn't getting any younger and will continue to lose both actual value and trade value with every year that passes by. 

At some point it comes down to your trust in management's ability to evaluate and grow talent. On one end of the spectrum, if you had zero confidence in the Brewers' organization, it would be an easy decision to want to hang onto our current talent as long as possible. On the other end of the spectrum, if you had full confidence in every highly-ranked young player turning into a stud, it would be an easy decision to cash out and replenish the pipeline, even if it meant getting worse in the short term. The 2022 Rays certainly seem to be suffering from the "got worse in the short term" reality, although the rest of their division getting better isn't helping either. And they will probably make the postseason anyway. 

Personally I feel that the Brewers operate with an opportunistic mindset and they are not going to lock themselves into one extreme or the other. I could easily see them signing Burnes to a long-term extension and trading Hader in the same offseason, depending on their take on the market and the projected value of their various assets. In the Melvin era it felt to me like management was rigid in how each asset fit into their plan and was strongly biased toward short-term goals. In the Stearns era I feel like they operate more on a set of principles vs. having a plan for any particular season or asset. When the opportunity comes along to make a move that will further either their short term or long term goals, they won't hesitate to make the move. I think they have a general plan on when they would trade or extend Hader/Woodruff/Burnes, but their main principle is flexibility, and they will quickly evolve to the rapidly changing (and unpredictable) landscape of MLB. We don't even know what the rules will be in 2023! 

[brewers888]

We really don't know what the Brewers plan is until we know who is executing the plan. If Stearns has decided to leave after next season does he go all in knowing the mess left behind will be one for Arnold to deal with.

I would feel a lot better knowing the make up of the front office over the next few years. My opinion is that Stearns has decided to wait it out in Milwaukee till his contractual obligation ends and go home to run the muts. If that is the case why would he be concerned about the long term future of this franchise.

The last thing this team should do is keep everyone on board and let them all walk as free agents. Losing Hader, Burnes, and Woodruff for nothing would hurt this franchise for years. Becoming a bottom feeder like Baltimore and Pittsburgh have been for years is not the path I would like to see but it is where we are likely headed if we let all three star pitchers walk over the next two years without getting some great prospects in return.

[Thurston Fluff]

We were told the goal was to field good teams year in and year out. That won't happen if we trade the bulk of our top players all at once. If the choice is to keep the band together then we are doomed to a total rebuild. If we trade some players and get some back we may take a step back from what we'd have but we'd have a much better shot at maintaining a competitive team while reloading. I think the debate really boils down to whether doing all you can to field the best team on any given year is a better way to win World Series than having a consistently good team without mortgaging the future. Put me on the side of more small bites at the apple is better than one grand bite. So trade a couple this year, a couple nest year and sprinkle in the prospects a few at a time.

[Thurston Fluff]

11 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

We really don't know what the Brewers plan is until we know who is executing the plan. If Stearns has decided to leave after next season does he go all in knowing the mess left behind will be one for Arnold to deal with.

I would feel a lot better knowing the make up of the front office over the next few years. My opinion is that Stearns has decided to wait it out in Milwaukee till his contractual obligation ends and go home to run the muts. If that is the case why would he be concerned about the long term future of this franchise.

The last thing this team should do is keep everyone on board and let them all walk as free agents. Losing Hader, Burnes, and Woodruff for nothing would hurt this franchise for years. Becoming a bottom feeder like Baltimore and Pittsburgh have been for years is not the path I would like to see but it is where we are likely headed if we let all three star pitchers walk over the next two years without getting some great prospects in return.

Pretty sure Mark Attanasio is the one calling the shots. He isn't going anywhere and probably isn't inclinded to let the short term goals of someone about to leave the organization to supersede his goals for the franchise.

[JCREW]

43 minutes ago, owbc said:

Personally I feel that the Brewers operate with an opportunistic mindset and they are not going to lock themselves into one extreme or the other. I could easily see them signing Burnes to a long-term extension and trading Hader in the same offseason, depending on their take on the market and the projected value of their various assets.

I hope that this is true. 

Baseball has so much variance that trying right now to figure out how to win in 2024 is a crapshoot. Don't get me wrong. I am greatly enjoying this thread, but having a fixed mindset about how to win in a post-Hader or post-Burnes world is foolishness.

It wasn't long ago when I and the rest of this board would have called for David Stearns' head if he traded Hiura, Lutz, and Ray for anything less than a Cy Young winner with years of control. 

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

 

Personally I feel that the Brewers operate with an opportunistic mindset and they are not going to lock themselves into one extreme or the other. I could easily see them signing Burnes to a long-term extension and trading Hader in the same offseason, depending on their take on the market and the projected value of their various assets. 

I'm sure if they offered Burnes 6yrs/180 million dollars he'd sign tomorrow, but the Brewers will never do that. Likewise, absent an injury or suddenly forgetting how to pitch, Burnes doesn't have any reason to not become a free agent. A 30 year old  perennial  ERA and strike out  king will do very well as a free agent. 

I guess my point is, if the Brewers had the another wave of minor league talent that projected to be impactful at the major league level it would be a different analysis. But  at least according to the pundits the organization as a whole is lacking blue chip talent and none of it is close to major league ready. Therefore, when this group is broken up there is likely going to be a significant decline from winning 85-95 games a year, no matter what. Personally, I'd keep their players together until at least this time next year or even July of 2024

[owbc]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

Pretty sure Mark Attanasio is the one calling the shots. He isn't going anywhere and probably isn't inclinded to let the short term goals of someone about to leave the organization to supersede his goals for the franchise.

Exactly. After 18 years this is Attanasio's organization and like any well-run business the machine reflects the vision of its leader and is no longer dependent on any individual other than Attanasio himself. Stearns is a cog in the machine like everyone else. If Stearns left tomorrow they've already had years to plan for his departure. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

22 hours ago, brewers888 said:

We really don't know what the Brewers plan is until we know who is executing the plan. If Stearns has decided to leave after next season does he go all in knowing the mess left behind will be one for Arnold to deal with.

I would feel a lot better knowing the make up of the front office over the next few years. My opinion is that Stearns has decided to wait it out in Milwaukee till his contractual obligation ends and go home to run the muts. If that is the case why would he be concerned about the long term future of this franchise.

The last thing this team should do is keep everyone on board and let them all walk as free agents. Losing Hader, Burnes, and Woodruff for nothing would hurt this franchise for years. Becoming a bottom feeder like Baltimore and Pittsburgh have been for years is not the path I would like to see but it is where we are likely headed if we let all three star pitchers walk over the next two years without getting some great prospects in return.

And what decisions exactly has this team made over the last 15 or so years that make you think that this scenario has even a 1% chance of playing out? Come on.

[brewers888]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

And what decisions exactly has this team made over the last 15 or so years that make you think that this scenario has even a 1% chance of playing out? Come on.

When have we ever had a GM with little time left on their contract that was rumored to be headed elsewhere. If and I say if Stearns has decided to go back home to run the muts why would he be concerned about the long term future of the Brewers.  

[Brewcrew82]

29 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

When have we ever had a GM with little time left on their contract that was rumored to be headed elsewhere. If and I say if Stearns has decided to go back home to run the muts why would he be concerned about the long term future of the Brewers.  

This is all complete speculation (and nonsense if you ask me). However, even if what you're saying were true, Attanasio is still the one running the show and would never let Stearns do anything to potentially harm the team in the long-term. And Stearns doesn't even have the authority to do whatever he wants with the roster. He's certainly the most important figure apart from Attanasio, but he also operates within a structure where others have a say as well. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

42 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

When have we ever had a GM with little time left on their contract that was rumored to be headed elsewhere. If and I say if Stearns has decided to go back home to run the muts why would he be concerned about the long term future of the Brewers.  

I'm not sure that running your current team into the ground before jumping ship is a solid career move.

[folly412]

The organization needs to hit on homegrown position players to continue to compete over the next few years.  Turang/Feliciano/Weimer/Frelick/Mitchell/Black/Chourio.  The money will need to go towards pitching, between big money extensions as current players approach free agency and some free agents with the minors looking thin.

[rickh150]

The payroll alone forces the Brewers to trade a SP and Hader this offseason, unless MA is all good with a much higher payroll next year with like ten expensive arby cases. I cannot see us paying Burnes, Woodruff, or Hader top money (ridiculous money in each case  for our payroll that already has Yelich) on long, risky contracts (yep, Teddy Higuera here, but on steroids) in the long term either…And if the shocking happens that one of these guys signs an extension here, the others are even more likely to not return.

Then, a few secondary reasons come in like we have young starting pitchers waiting in the wings with Ashby and Small, we have Devon Williams to close, and we actually are in need of quality, controllable bats and top prospects in the upper levels of our farm system.

Oh yeah, our attendance is down too.

Much as I’d like to roll with the same group in 2023, I just can’t see it happening at different levels.

my current guesses—-Traded in offseason of

2023- Hader and Woodruff (Adames extension)

2024- Burnes (Ashby and Tellez extension)

 

[Under the Roof]

Re. Next 1.5 yrs.

Given where they are, July 4 & +2.0 in standings, and given all that the team has endured in the first half, plus some of the generational talent on this squad;  I think ownership and management says to themselves -Let's win the NL this year.  
 

Looking league wide, there really aren't that many teams that are in buyer mode, but there ought to be a bunch of sellers, so maybe that keeps 'pricing down' in the trade market.

Definitely adding 1 or 2 outfielders depending on injuries & maybe Dahl from AAA if he gets hot. recall Braves added 3 OF starters last year.)

A middle reliever or two this summer.

'23-

The organization clearly decided we're going to develop young pitching talent, they're definitely not changing now. More of the same, while slowly bringing in young OF talent.

I'll be shocked if Hader isn't moved, but obviously the other GMs around don't value him the same way Brewers do, otherwise he would have seemingly been traded already.

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, Under the Roof said:

I'll be shocked if Hader isn't moved, but obviously the other GMs around don't value him the same way Brewers do, otherwise he would have seemingly been traded already.

I think it's more likely to Brewers had no interest in trading him than other GM's not being interested in the best reliever in the game. Especially given he'd have been under team control for multiple years.

[clancyphile]

At this point, I see the Brewers extending Burnes, Hader, and Adames. All are very high-end talents at their positions. Burnes, to be blunt, is generational as a TOR/ace pitcher. Really, at this point, NOT extending is risky, especially if good trade value isn't there.

I see Houser/Lauer/Woodruff as eventual trade bait, with the likes of Ashby and Small stepping up to fill the rotation spots. Pick a core - Yelich/Adames/Burnes/Hader and work around that.

[tmwiese55]

You'd probably be paying over 80 mil per year for those 4 players.   If we were a normal team, ok sure, but I can't imagine they can take on that kind of money.     If they didn't have the Yeli albatross it would really help as you could shift his money to a P, unfortunately they're stuck though.

As said, Burnes is Cy Young ace level and young, very good chance he pushed it all the way to FA to cash in the 300+ mil Gerrit Cole contract. Maybe he's a risk adverse person and takes the money in hand, but he's the least likely to sign imo as he has the 300+ payday coming.    Woodruff OTOH, he's older and not quite as good. I'd guess there could be a middle grounds with him where he puts the money in the bank and doesn't risk the Jimmy Nelson situation. 

My guess is the financial relationship with Hader is poor right now and isn't likely to resign barring we massively overpay a reliever.  He's counting down the days to his FA payday.  It really wouldn't surprise me if he demands a trade in the offseason so he can sign a long term deal with that new team and not have to gamble another year.

[Thurston Fluff]

56 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

At this point, I see the Brewers extending Burnes, Hader, and Adames. All are very high-end talents at their positions. Burnes, to be blunt, is generational as a TOR/ace pitcher. Really, at this point, NOT extending is risky, especially if good trade value isn't there.

I see Houser/Lauer/Woodruff as eventual trade bait, with the likes of Ashby and Small stepping up to fill the rotation spots. Pick a core - Yelich/Adames/Burnes/Hader and work around that.

 

I think they may look at trading the likes of Hauser or Lauer to free up some money to keep some of the top talent but I don't think it will be Hader or Burnes.

Burnes is going to get generational talent level compensation in both number of years and amount per year. There is just no way to pay that much while also paying Yelich. They've already got one of the big three signed to a team friendly contract, if they want to sign another of the three Woodruff might be a better bet to extend. I'm not for extending either given the injury risks of pitchers in their 30's

Hader is going to get more than any reliever is worth. You'll be paying for the name as well as the production. That's something the Brewers need to avoid. Especially given his replacement is already here and a proven commodity.

There simply is no way to extend both Burnes and Hader without having to fill the rest of the roster with minimum wage type players. It also puts all their success on two players both staying healthy. That's not a bet one should take with any players but doubly so for pitchers.

 

[monty57]

Sad as it may be, I agree with those that don't think a big extension to one of our arby stars is coming. We have great players, and they are going to demand contracts that are too big for the Brewers' payroll. If they're going to extend someone, it probably has to be someone who is currently in the pre-arby years like Ashby or Williams.

Although I think he'll be traded this coming offseason, there is some argument to be made that we could ride out Hader's contract to free agency. I don't see any valid argument for holding Burnes or Woodruff to free agency. Both of them would bring back franchise-changing talent, so we can't risk losing that for one final season at the MLB level. 

I think the odds are pretty high that Hader will be traded this offseason, and I also expect a starting pitcher to be traded. My question is whether they "go big" and trade Woodruff (I think he'll be traded before Burnes) or if they go smaller and trade Houser or Lauer. 

I think their first choice would be to bring back some talent that is either already in the MLB or is close to MLB ready, but if the best deal centered around potential star talent at the lower levels, I think they'd take the best deal.

The bad news is that we will likely see some good players traded away over the next few seasons. The good news is that when you trade away good players, you usually get a lot of talent in return, so if it's done correctly we have the chance to remain "sustainably relevant" beyond the next couple of years.

[monty57]

19 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

There simply is no way to extend both Burnes and Hader without having to fill the rest of the roster with minimum wage type players. It also puts all their success on two players both staying healthy. That's not a bet one should take with any players but doubly so for pitchers.

I think the Angels have shown that having two of the best players in baseball (if not the two best players in baseball) doesn't get you a winning team. 

The Brewers cannot afford to pay Yelich $26M, Burnes $30M+ and Hader $20M+. That would leave us around $50-some million for the remaining 23 players, and that would not be enough to keep the Brewers in playoff contention.

[Underachiever]

On 7/1/2022 at 1:30 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

This is all complete speculation (and nonsense if you ask me). However, even if what you're saying were true, Attanasio is still the one running the show and would never let Stearns do anything to potentially harm the team in the long-term. And Stearns doesn't even have the authority to do whatever he wants with the roster. He's certainly the most important figure apart from Attanasio, but he also operates within a structure where others have a say as well. 

Besides, I think Matt Arnold is the Brewers GM, not David Stearns. We can discuss what the various titles mean in reality. But the bottom line is I imagine that the Brewers are very well set with a succession plan, I don't expect Stearns to salt the earth if he decides to leave the Brewers. It would be one hell of a long con for Stearns to be an exemplary executive for years, only to do a heel turn on his way out the door. Honestly, it reflects more on the person that keeps posting this implausible scenario than on David Stearns at this point.

[clancyphile]

41 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

 

I think they may look at trading the likes of Hauser or Lauer to free up some money to keep some of the top talent but I don't think it will be Hader or Burnes.

Burnes is going to get generational talent level compensation in both number of years and amount per year. There is just no way to pay that much while also paying Yelich. They've already got one of the big three signed to a team friendly contract, if they want to sign another of the three Woodruff might be a better bet to extend. I'm not for extending either given the injury risks of pitchers in their 30's

Hader is going to get more than any reliever is worth. You'll be paying for the name as well as the production. That's something the Brewers need to avoid. Especially given his replacement is already here and a proven commodity.

There simply is no way to extend both Burnes and Hader without having to fill the rest of the roster with minimum wage type players. It also puts all their success on two players both staying healthy. That's not a bet one should take with any players but doubly so for pitchers.

 

The way I see it, the Brewers have three choices with Hader and Burnes:

1. Extend them.

2. Trade them for less than their value, both immediate and long-term.

3. Let them walk for nothing.

Number 3 has to be ruled out - given the Brewers position, they cannot afford to lose generational talent without compensation. We don't get picks any more for players who depart via free agency, and quite frankly, that draft pick compensation should be restored, but that ain't happening by the time they hit free agency.

Option 2 is a lot of risk. Ask the Marlins how that trade for Yelich worked out for them. For Hader, Option 2 may be necessary, depending on how the revenue and payroll situations line up.

But for Burnes, the best option is to cough up the extension. Peralta, with options, is around through 2026. Ethan Small and Aaron Ashby will likely be in the rotation by then, and the fifth slot... well, the Crew has been developing pitchers well. 

[owbc]

Is Burnes really a generational talent? He has 9.8 career bWAR. Certainly we can't discount that he's had a three-year run of exceptional pitching and won the Cy Young award. But, he would hardly be the first pitcher to have a short run of dominance and then fall off the face of the earth after age 30. 

We don't know if Burnes will become Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello. 

In my view, the Brewers can't take a $250+ million risk to find out. 

[nate82]

17 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

3. Let them walk for nothing.

Number 3 has to be ruled out - given the Brewers position, they cannot afford to lose generational talent without compensation. We don't get picks any more for players who depart via free agency, and quite frankly, that draft pick compensation should be restored, but that ain't happening by the time they hit free agency.

This is incorrect.  The current CBA allows for draft pick compensation for free agents.  I posted a link earlier in this thread with the compensation rules.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

Is Burnes really a generational talent? He has 9.8 career bWAR. Certainly we can't discount that he's had a three-year run of exceptional pitching and won the Cy Young award. But, he would hardly be the first pitcher to have a short run of dominance and then fall off the face of the earth after age 30. 

We don't know if Burnes will become Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello. 

In my view, the Brewers can't take a $250+ million risk to find out. 

Yes, he is a generational talent. He's quite simply been the best pitcher in baseball over the last three years by virtually every meaningful statistic, including fWAR (12.5). His career bWAR is weighed down heavily by his putrid 2019 season (-2.2). But, he's not close to that same pitcher due to his replacement of his four-seam fastball, which was statistically the worst pitch in baseball that season, with his cutter, which has arguably become the best pitch in baseball. Meanwhile, his FIP last season (1.63) was the second lowest of the post-dead ball era, after Pedro Martinez's 1999 season (probably the best single season by a pitcher in baseball history). 

So, no he's not Rick Porcello. Even Porcello's Cy Young season in 2016 was nowhere close to as dominant as any of Burnes' last three seasons, as he mainly won that race due to the fact that he won 22 games for a big market first place team. 

Instead, I would point you to Roy Halladay as the best comparison. Eerily similar career trajectories and pitch profiles.