Rebuild, retool, trade - how should the Brewers approach the next 1.5 seasons?

[monty57]

On 6/23/2022 at 6:37 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I haven’t really crunched the numbers, maybe I’ll start a thread on it but will the Brewers be that far over budget with Cain’s big salary coming off the books?

Feel free to move this to a new thread if you'd like, as it really takes things off topic in this thread:

The 2022 Brewers' opening (28 man) payroll was $131,930,160, which was $9.4M over it's previous opening day high set in 2019. I'd assume that they don't have a lot of extra payroll room above and beyond $132M for next year.

At this point, only Yelich ($26M) and Peralta ($3.735M) are under contract for 2023. Wong ($10M with a $2M buyout) and Boxberger ($3M with a $750,000 buyout) have club options for 2023. 

McCutchen, Narvaez, Peterson and Perdomo are free agents, along with Cain's contract being off the books. There are 20 arbitration eligible players.

I put in some guesses at arby raises, and I'd guess that if they keep everyone they have, and just add some league minimum guys to fill in the gaps, they'll be right around the $131M level. If they do not exercise Wong and Boxberger's options, they could save $10.1M, but then they'll need to replace Wong (maybe with Brosseau?) and Boxberger.

There's a lot of guesswork going on, but I think they could probably keep the pitching staff together for one more year (Hader's last year as a Brewer), but we'd be losing Narvaez, Peterson, and McCutchen. We'd be relying on Taylor in CF with someone like Davis or one of our other prospects as the 4th OF, and we'd have little depth anywhere. 

In my opinion, we'd be going into the year worse than we came into this year for around the same price tag. Personally, I think this coming offseason is where we'll see some pitching traded for young offensive help and "salary relief" to be able to something on the FA market to fill gaps/add some depth.

If the Brewers do decide to keep the team together for one more year (no big moves this offseason), they'll lose Hader and Renfroe to FA and I don't think there's any way they'll be able to afford all of the arby raises going into 2024, so we'd probably see a pretty big selloff at that point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Feel free to move this to a new thread if you'd like, as it really takes things off topic in this thread:

The 2022 Brewers' opening (28 man) payroll was $131,930,160, which was $9.4M over it's previous opening day high set in 2019. I'd assume that they don't have a lot of extra payroll room above and beyond $132M for next year.

At this point, only Yelich ($26M) and Peralta ($3.735M) are under contract for 2023. Wong ($10M with a $2M buyout) and Boxberger ($3M with a $750,000 buyout) have club options for 2023. 

McCutchen, Narvaez, Peterson and Perdomo are free agents, along with Cain's contract being off the books. There are 20 arbitration eligible players.

I put in some guesses at arby raises, and I'd guess that if they keep everyone they have, and just add some league minimum guys to fill in the gaps, they'll be right around the $131M level. If they do not exercise Wong and Boxberger's options, they could save $10.1M, but then they'll need to replace Wong (maybe with Brosseau?) and Boxberger.

There's a lot of guesswork going on, but I think they could probably keep the pitching staff together for one more year (Hader's last year as a Brewer), but we'd be losing Narvaez, Peterson, and McCutchen. We'd be relying on Taylor in CF with someone like Davis or one of our other prospects as the 4th OF, and we'd have little depth anywhere. 

In my opinion, we'd be going into the year worse than we came into this year for around the same price tag. Personally, I think this coming offseason is where we'll see some pitching traded for young offensive help and "salary relief" to be able to something on the FA market to fill gaps/add some depth.

If the Brewers do decide to keep the team together for one more year (no big moves this offseason), they'll lose Hader and Renfroe to FA and I don't think there's any way they'll be able to afford all of the arby raises going into 2024, so we'd probably see a pretty big selloff at that point.

Given all that, it makes a Hader trade all the more alluring. Stock for the future, give more flexibility for today, and Williams certainly looks good enough to close out games.

[monty57]

17 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Given all that, it makes a Hader trade all the more alluring. Stock for the future, give more flexibility for today, and Williams certainly looks good enough to close out games.

Yeah, I'd have to think that's going to happen. We also have most of our current rotation in Burnes, Woodruff, Houser and Lauer all due to become free agents at the same time (after the 2024 season), so I could see a trade happening there as well. If we don't do something to break that up and start getting some more young talent, we're in for a massive rebuild in the next couple of years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, monty57 said:

Yeah, I'd have to think that's going to happen. We also have most of our current rotation in Burnes, Woodruff, Houser and Lauer all due to become free agents at the same time (after the 2024 season), so I could see a trade happening there as well. If we don't do something to break that up and start getting some more young talent, we're in for a massive rebuild in the next couple of years.

Yeah, given the relative weaknesses of the farm system, it's hard to see anything but a big rebuild coming unless they find a way to retool on the fly like the Rays do on almost a yearly basis.

[Jopal78]

On 6/28/2022 at 10:06 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, given the relative weaknesses of the farm system, it's hard to see anything but a big rebuild coming unless they find a way to retool on the fly like the Rays do on almost a yearly basis.

I guess it depends where they see themselves next year. There's no way a team eyeing a deep run in the post-season trades away the most dominant in baseball. 

Furthermore, even though he's been a good player for the Brewers, Renfroe is a sub .800 corner outfielder, there's a decent chance he gets non-tendered as opposed to paying him close to 10 million dollars for his final arbitration year. Same deal with Caratini, he's been good for Milwaukee this year, but he's a number 2 catcher with a career OPS of .680 and slightly above average defensive skills, the going rate for someone like Caratini will likely be too rich for the Brewers blood. 

My point is: if they plan on contending next year they most likely find a way to keep the pitching intact because it's their bread and butter. It's illogical to break up the strength of their team and believe that improvements to other areas will not only make up for the dip in pitching talent, but actually increase the overall talent level. 

In fact, if rumors are true and Stearns has one year left on his contract after this season, the most likely scenario is they find away to take one more shot at a deep playoff run keeping their dynamic pitchers together and figuring out what to do when the dust clears will be up to the person taking over for Stearns. 

[Brewcrew82]

On 6/28/2022 at 10:06 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, given the relative weaknesses of the farm system, it's hard to see anything but a big rebuild coming unless they find a way to retool on the fly like the Rays do on almost a yearly basis.

Not sure about "the relative weaknesses of the farm system". This farm system is on the ascent, headlined by a potential top 10 prospect in Chourio and three other top 100 prospects who are close to the bigs in Frelick, Wiemer, and Turang. It's not quite back to the top tier, but it's making its way up after several years in the mid to low 20s....

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not sure about "the relative weaknesses of the farm system". This farm system is on the ascent, headlined by a potential top 10 prospect in Chourio and three other top 100 prospects who are close to the bigs in Frelick, Wiemer, and Turang. It's not quite back to the top tier, but it's making its way up after several years in the mid to low 20s....

Oh, it’s definitely trending upward but it lacks the desired depth and many of the most intriguing players are still a couple of years away. I think a few smart trades now could either lead to a retool on the fly or a very short rebuild. Personally, I’d prefer trading some guys this off-season or pushing the chips into the middle for 1.5 seasons and then preparing for a long rebuild. Just kinda riding it out and working in the margins is my least desired process. I watched the Twins do that for literally a decade of postseason appearances with not even a series win to show for it. 

[Lathund]

On 6/28/2022 at 5:06 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yeah, given the relative weaknesses of the farm system, it's hard to see anything but a big rebuild coming unless they find a way to retool on the fly like the Rays do on almost a yearly basis.

I don't see a big rebuild coming at all. They've said they're looking to do more like what the Cardinals do, and I think they will. The need for a rebuild comes when either you've messed everything up, or more commonly after you've been "all in" for a few years, with a lot of expiring contracts taking up the entire budget, and having traded the prospects who would otherwise be ready to step in. So as long as you don't put yourself in that situation, you don't need to do that kind of teardown. You stagger the trades, go for AA/AAA prospects as opposed to R/A, maybe extend a player or two if possible to do it cheaply. I'd also argue the farm isn't weak anymore; it has gone from one of the absolute weakest after 2018 and 2019 (With the trades for Yelich, Moose, Pomeranz etc, and most of all the graduations of the entire pitching core) to slowly but steadily climbing to being average-ish. And it has done that climb with hardly any trades for prospects at all (The Phelps trade is the only "major" one I can think of), while still using trades to improve the team via trades. It's a good sign that it can improve without outside additions. 

So what I expect is that we will see the team hold onto their major prospects for the most part, and try to develop them into major leaguers. There will be a "selling" trade or two most years (Hader seems almost certain this offseason IMO, quite possibly alongside one of the starters), with young major leaguers or high-minors prospects as the return. They will at the same time be buyers too, but more in the sense of the Brosseau or Rowdy trades, giving up lesser prospects to do so. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

This topic was growing its own legs so I split it into a new thread. 

[Robocaller]

I think they try to extend themselves as a playoff team as long as they can, then blow things up when they clearly are trending in the wrong direction.

 

[nate82]

I think Hader is more than likely gone after this season it just doesn't make any sense for the Brewers to hang onto him.  One of Houser or Lauer will also be traded.  That should clear up enough salary to keep Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Lauer/Houser and Ashby as your starting 5.  The bullpen should still be good with Williams taking over as the closer.  If the Brewers want to keep Hader then the Brewers are going to have to rely on Wiemer, Taylor, Turang, Feliciano and others to replace all of the bats leaving.  

I don't see the Brewers bringing back Narvaez as that would be extremely expensive.  I think the Brewers do bring back Caratini though yes he will be expensive but he will more than likely be the starting catcher with Feliciano/Jackson as the primary backup.  If you think the Brewers will drop Caratini then it is probably a resigning of Severino with Feliciano/Jackson as the backup catcher.  I would rather just pay Caratini at that point.  

So lets say the Brewers want to keep everyone but Caratini, Narvaez, Wong and Renfroe.  The Brewers would have to replace all of those bats with someone so that probably means an offense that looks something like this:

C : Severino and  Feliciano/Jackson 

1B : Tellez and J. Singleton

2B: Urias, Turang, P. Reyes

SS: Adames, Urias, Turang, P. Reyes

3B: Urias and P.Reyes

LF: Yelich, Taylor, Wiemer, Davis and Dahl

CF: Taylor and Davis

RF: Wiemer, Taylor, Davis and Dahl

DH: J. Singleton, Tellez, Dahl and Yelich

That is a rather brutal offense as you are not going to know what you are going to get from Wiemer, Turang and Feliciano if anything at all.  Not to mention Singleton, Dahl, Reyes and Davis are not going to be all that great either.  

It just makes more sense after this season to kind of blow it up.  Trade Hader, Houser/Lauer, Burnes/Woodruff and Caratini.  That should bring enough back to do a soft reset where the Brewers will be competitive again in 2025.  The Brewers can also get more prospects by trading Burnes/Woodruff and Houser/Lauer during the deadline.  

Either the Brewers do a soft reset or basically get a bunch of comp A and 3rd round picks for Burnes, Woodruff and Hader.  The Brewers may get an extra 3rd round pick for Houser and Lauer also.  Optimistically that would be 3 comp A's, and 5 3rd round picks in the 2024 draft.  If any of them get injured it could be just a bunch of 3rd picks or nothing.  That would be a really long rebuild if the Brewers only get draft compensation for losing Burnes, Woodruff and Hader.  

Here is the guide on free agent compensation going forward: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/guide-to-the-new-cba-draft-lottery-expanded-playoffs-and-more/

Quote

RAFT PICK COMPENSATION

Even if an international draft is implemented, teams that lose free agents are still eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick. Compensatory draft picks will be awarded as follows:

Clubs that receive revenue sharing will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $35 million total or $18 million in average annual value, a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $55 million or $23 million in average annual value, a compensation round A pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value, or a third-round pick and compensation round A pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value.

Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing but don’t go over the CBT will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $55 million or $23 million in average annual value, a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value, or a compensation round A pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value.

Clubs that go over the CBT will receive a third-round pick if the player signs for more than $100 million or $30 million in average annual value or a compensation round B pick if the player signs for more than $150 million or $40 million in average annual value.

 

[patrickgpe]

I’ve always had the thought that the brewers could/would/should sign 1 out of the 3. .My preference was Burnes but I think he commands the most, so I think Hader and Burnes will walk anyway. If they can keep Woodruff and have Peralta signed long term along with Ashby and Small in pre-arby deals, their rotation is not that bad. Devin Williams can be your closer for the next 3 seasons. I don’t think ownership is going to blow it up if they don;’t have to. I don’t think they do. Also i would hope Burnes and Hader would be traded to retool the farm system if they are certain they can’t resign him, so there would be talent coming back. So my answer is retool. 

[wallus]

I think we will re-tool a little bit. Hader is most obviously going to be traded as you wouldn't spend 15% or so of your payroll on 60 innings, no matter how dominant. I would also trade Houser or Lauer and let Wong go. 

I would re-sign Peterson to be a platoon partner with Brosseau at 3rd. I would roll the dice with Hiura at DH with the idea that you can pick someone up at the deadline if necessary. If you can get Omar for less than 2 years and 20 million, you do it as I like the fit with him on the roster.

I would also make a trade for an outfielder that can be a middle of the order bat, preferably Bryan Reynolds. 

[nate82]

25 minutes ago, wallus said:

I would re-sign Peterson to be a platoon partner with Brosseau at 3rd. I would roll the dice with Hiura at DH with the idea that you can pick someone up at the deadline if necessary. If you can get Omar for less than 2 years and 20 million, you do it as I like the fit with him on the roster.

I don't think you can get Omar for that.  It is basically going to be his only shot at free agency.  I do think the Brewers could possibly get a comp B pick for Omar.  I think Omar's max is something like 5-years $60m which is a comp B pick compensation for the Brewers and his min is 4-years $40m which would give the Brewers a 3rd round pick.  

Peterson if he continues to play at the pace he is at he could get a deal similar to what La Stella got a few years ago 3-years $18m.  I think that would put him out of the price of the Brewers.  

[rickh150]

Boy, fun options.

I think Woodruff needs to be dangled this offseason. Burnes would get you back more, but he has been so, so good. Tough to let him go with two years of control left. Houser and Lauer likely won’t get as big of a return as you’d like, as well.

Hader is the interesting one. He might cost 18 million next year. How much would a team be willing to give up to get him? For the Brewers, it would have to be a significant player or two otherwise why bother. He is the best reliever in baseball and his numbers put him with one of the best ever. Much like Burnes, tough to give up when looking to win it all.

 

[wallus]

11 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I don't think you can get Omar for that.  It is basically going to be his only shot at free agency.  I do think the Brewers could possibly get a comp B pick for Omar.  I think Omar's max is something like 5-years $60m which is a comp B pick compensation for the Brewers and his min is 4-years $40m which would give the Brewers a 3rd round pick.  

Woof. No way I sign a catcher in his 30's to a 5 year contract. I am already concerned that Omar's slugging is starting to go down a bit which is a red flag for regression. 

If we had to do a Caratini and Feliciano tandem, I guess we could get by.

[Brewcrew82]

The Brewers need to do everything they can to get Burnes signed to a long-term contract extension. He has a real chance to become the greatest pitcher in Brewers history. Also, I read that he recently purchased a house in MKE fwiw. 

Hader should be dangled once again this offseason, but it needs to be for a fair value. Otherwise, just ride with him in the last year of his contract and go for it. 

Woody is the one I'd be interested in trading given that he's older than Freddy and Corbin and we have Ashby who has front-line potential. Would help both salary-wise and with replenishing the farm system. 

Houser should probably be dealt, too. Hopefully, he can turn things around here and return to being a 3.50 ERA guy. Those types of guys who can also eat innings have a ton of value. Small would likely be his replacement, which is why I hope they start working him out of the bullpen soon like our previous starting pitching prospects. 

[wntrtxn21]

I think the Brewers keep Caratini for about $4.5-5M range. I believe Hader/Houser all will be on the block for sure. Woodruff is another possability, but I don't think a certainty. That should bring in some MLB ready talent on the mound or at 3B. Their contracts along with losing Cain/McCutchon/Wong should be enough to sustain a decent team. 

Catchers:  Caratini - Severino

1B:  Tellez (Singleton has been so bad at AAA I think he's released soon)

2B:  Urias  - Reyes  (Wong is almost certainly gone)

SS:  Adames  -  Reyes/Turang (It's time to see what he can do)

3B:  Brosseau  -  Free Agent or somebody from Hader/Houser trade

OF:  Yelich - Taylor - Renfroe - Davis/trade acquisition- (it doesn't look like the Brewers think much of Dahl) 

DH:  TBD (I think they have seen enough of Hiura's strikeouts)

Starters:  Burnes-Peralta-Ashby-Lauer- possibly Woodruff - TBD

Bullpen:  Williams (closer) -  I think they bring back Boxburger with Small in the long relief role.  Gott/Topa/Cousins/Milner/Suter all possabilities along with FAs. 

[Jopal78]

With the going rate for “good not great” starting pitchers in MLB being 25+ million per season, Woodruff and Burnes are not signing extensions in Milwaukee. 

Besides, two pitchers of that caliber don’t come along at the same time very often, and trading either of them in the middle of a competitive window is what poorly run teams typically do. 
 

Similarly, I think the Brewers will hang on to Hader and figure out how to retool an offense around the pitching. It’s the easiest path forward.

Look no further than the Royals, coming off a World Series loss, they had Holland heading into his final year of control and Wade Davis waiting in the wings. Rather they ran it back the next year and even added some rentals.

Theres just not a history of playoff contenders trading elite relief pitching. 
 

There’s no reason to think the Brewers will deviate from what they have done every offseason in recent memory: find some  hitters at bargain rates to fill out their line up: Renfroe, McCutchen, Wong, Garcia, Narvaez, Moustakas. Thames, Aguilar, Choi, etc.

 

 

[brewmann04]

There is No Way the Brewers are going to be able to Afford Josh,Corbin and Brandon

[Brock Beauchamp]

33 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Look no further than the Royals, coming off a World Series loss, they had Holland heading into his final year of control and Wade Davis waiting in the wings. Rather they ran it back the next year and even added some rentals.

While you make good points, don't compare anyone to the Royals. They are not a well-run franchise and almost backed into their brief run of success. This is Dayton Moore's 16th season as GM, if I'm recalling correctly. He has... three?... winning seasons.

[monty57]

17 hours ago, Lathund said:

I don't see a big rebuild coming at all. They've said they're looking to do more like what the Cardinals do, and I think they will. The need for a rebuild comes when either you've messed everything up, or more commonly after you've been "all in" for a few years, with a lot of expiring contracts taking up the entire budget, and having traded the prospects who would otherwise be ready to step in. So as long as you don't put yourself in that situation, you don't need to do that kind of teardown. You stagger the trades, go for AA/AAA prospects as opposed to R/A, maybe extend a player or two if possible to do it cheaply. I'd also argue the farm isn't weak anymore; it has gone from one of the absolute weakest after 2018 and 2019 (With the trades for Yelich, Moose, Pomeranz etc, and most of all the graduations of the entire pitching core) to slowly but steadily climbing to being average-ish. And it has done that climb with hardly any trades for prospects at all (The Phelps trade is the only "major" one I can think of), while still using trades to improve the team via trades. It's a good sign that it can improve without outside additions. 

So what I expect is that we will see the team hold onto their major prospects for the most part, and try to develop them into major leaguers. There will be a "selling" trade or two most years (Hader seems almost certain this offseason IMO, quite possibly alongside one of the starters), with young major leaguers or high-minors prospects as the return. They will at the same time be buyers too, but more in the sense of the Brosseau or Rowdy trades, giving up lesser prospects to do so. 

I like the Cardinals comp, as that is the model I think the Brewers should try to emulate. Unlike the Rays/A’s, they’ve shown the ability to have some higher-priced players on the team, and success builds a strong fan-base that eventually leads to higher payrolls. 
 

I think the only path to “complete rebuild” would be to hold onto all of Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Lauer, and Adames until free agency. There is no way we could bounce back from losing all of them “for nothing” in one offseason. 
 

Therefore, I think they’ll trade some pitching this off-season, because pitching is where their depth is. They could trade Houser or Lauer and replace him with Ashby without a big setback. If they decide to make a bigger move, and trade Woodruff, there would be a step back in the rotation, but you’d have to assume the return would bring back some significant upgrades elsewhere. 
 

I also agree that Wong is likely gone, saving $8M. I like the way he plays, but he’s not irreplaceable. Brosseau and Urias are current MLB options, and Turang is a good option to get his shot next year. I think they have to exercise Boxburger’s option, since it would be hard to find another setup guy for $3M. 
 

They can maintain success while trading some proven MLB players. They can’t maintain success if they ride all of the current guys to free agency. They need to get some return (young talent with a lot of years of service) back, and those trades will probably need to start happening this coming offseason. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

30 minutes ago, monty57 said:

They can maintain success while trading some proven MLB players. They can’t maintain success if they ride all of the current guys to free agency. 

This is basically where I'm at. I'd trade Hader and possibly Woodruff this offseason, targeting guys who are either in the high minors or on the verge of the high minors.

If I don't like the returns on Hader and/or Woodruff, I do the opposite. I push all the chips in and risk it all in 2023 by acquiring multiple big bats. But I suspect the return on someone like Woodruff would be massive and the return on someone like Hader will be very good if you can get either the Dodgers or Yankees interested. They're the type of teams that would pay big for Hader just for exclusive rights to negotiate an extension.

[igor67]

Nothing from this year has changed my approach which is basically that they have built enough up and coming farm talent that they can effectively retool and continue to be a playoff caliber team. A big name is going to have to be traded for that to occur, but as other have explored there are different options, and a GM who has shown he likes options and flexibility.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

While you make good points, don't compare anyone to the Royals. They are not a well-run franchise and almost backed into their brief run of success. This is Dayton Moore's 16th season as GM, if I'm recalling correctly. He has... three?... winning seasons.

I don't know about that. To be sure, they haven't been good since the group that won the World Series broke up, but Moore has two pennants and a World Series ring which tops everyone currently working not named Friedman or Cashman, and Moore got his pennants and rings long after Cashman last got his.

As to the Brewers, it's fiction to believe they can trade All-Star pitching away without taking a step back. For example, without Hader, every pitcher takes one step forward and they're forced to rely on pitchers of the caliber of Gustave, Miguel Sanchez and Trevor Kelley to pitch in higher leverage situations. There is no way to trade Hader and not have the bullpen take a hit. 

Moreover, the suggested return for any of the Brewers star players is all overblown. It's not the year 2000 any more, and teams don't trade elite minor league talent that is on the cusp of being major league ready.  For example, when the Nationals traded both Max Scherzer and Trea Turner with team control remaining, they only brought back to Washington two players who are in AA, and two younger guys, Ruiz and Josiah Gray, who both have struggled significantly in their first tastes of the major leagues.

Trading Woodruff or anyone else, isn't going to bring back a hitter/s who immediately go into the middle of the order and put up an .850 OPS for years to come. It means the team will have less talent in the short run, which probably ends their competitive window regardless.