Article: Caswell Informed: What to Do with Pedro Severino?

[Caswell]

Pedro Severino is slated to come off the restricted list after the game on Saturday following his 80 game suspension for a positive PED test. What will happen when he returns?

Pedro Severino was assumed to be the backup catcher to Omar Narvaez following the departure of Manny Pina in free agency during the offseason. This plan was tossed out on April 5th, just before the season started, after the results of a PED test administered before the MLB lockout began on December 2nd showed Clomiphene in his body, a substance banned by the MLB. 

Reason for Suspension
Severino accepted responsibility for his mistake and apologized immediately in a statement released via the MLBPA, saying that his wife and himself have been working to start a family and had been unsuccessful thus far. A doctor in the Dominican Republic, where Severino is from, prescribed him a medication which contained Clomiphene to help aid in this endeavor.

Clomiphene is often used to improve fertility, but typically only in females as it is what is termed an “ovary stimulant,” as it facilitates ovulation. As such, it has only been approved by the FDA in women. The use in men has shown varying results by increasing sperm count, but will often decrease with improper dosing.

Another use for Clomiphene in men is as a “downer” following a steroid cycle. This is done by rebalancing the testosterone levels within the body and hiding the usage of a steroid. There is obviously much more science involved, but this is a quick summary. Now I am not saying that Pedro used anything besides Clomiphene, and this all may be a huge mistake, I just want to explain a bit about what he was marked positive for.

Career Batting
The seven-year veteran started his career with the Nationals in 2015. After four years there, he was waived and claimed by the Orioles in 2019, spending the next three years there, before being granted free agency by the Baltimore club. He signed with the Brewers shortly thereafter.

In his major league career, he has played in 362 games, 327 of them as a catcher. Most of these games were during his time with the Orioles, as he played in 257 games in his time there, compared to the 105 games in his four years with the Nats.

He definitely had improved success with more consistent playing time, raising his batting average over 60 points, to .249, in his years with the Orioles.  The twenty-eight year-old has hit 33 home runs in his time in the bigs, with 133 rbis, accruing an OBP of 0.305. 

Defensive Comparison
Defensively, he has been consistently decent, with a career fielding percentage of 0.993. Severino has caught 28% of runners trying to steal a base on him. His pop time to second base is in the middle of the rankings for catchers at 51 percentile, averaging 1.97 seconds in 2021. For reference, this year both Victor Caratini and Narvaez have pop times of 2.01. Caratini has an exchange time of 0.75, while Narvaez has an exchange time of 0.72. Severino had an exchange time of 0.75 in 2021, and also has a slightly stronger arm.

His pitch framing, however, is quite poor. By that, I mean he was ranked in the bottom 1% of the league for stealing potential strikes for his pitchers, with a strike rate of just 43.7% in 2021, and never reaching 47.5% in a season in his entire career. He is marginally better at getting strike calls on the inside or outside edges, like most other catchers, but overall it is quite poor, to the tune of an absolutely horrible -10 catcher framing runs in 2021, and -22 in his entire career.

For this metric, you want to be positive. In 2021, Narvaez actually led the league with 10 catcher framing runs and had a strike rate of 49.2%, but Tomas Nido led the league with a strike rate of 53.5%. Severino is bad at getting an extra strike call.

Roster Situation
Due to the suspension of Severino, Milwaukee went out and got Caratini, who has formed a formidable duo with Narvaez behind the plate. Severino could look to replace Alex Jackson , the catcher who filled in while either Caratini or Narvaez were unavailable, but that would mean the Brewers would have to carry three catchers on their 26-man roster. This is due to the fact Severino has no options remaining. Despite it being unlikely either active catcher gets sent down, it is worthwhile to include that Narvaez also has no options remaining, but Caratini does have one. 

A quick comparison of the catchers shows that Caratini and Severino have quite similar career numbers and Narvaez leads the group, but this year he has exploded to an OPS+ of 129, which would lead all Brewers’ hitters if he were to qualify. Severino is unlikely to usurp this, as there is not a reasonable scenario where Caratini would be sent down, and Narvaez will not be moved out of the organization.

Positional Flexibility
There is the chance that one of these players would get some time at another position. Severino has been taking reps at first base in his rehab stint with Biloxi as he prepares to be reactivated. He has never played first before in his minor league career, let alone in the majors before his first recovery game on June 18th.

Narvaez has a little bit of experience, appearing in one game at first base, playing in five innings in a game in 2017 while with the White Sox. In that appearance, he made one error in his six defensive chances. When he first became professional while within the Tampa Bay organization, he did have much more experience at first base, starting in 37 of the 42 games played there, and even started a game in left field.

Caratini has significantly more broad experience on the field than either other player. He has started at first base in 23 games in the majors, playing in 59. Caratini has also been deployed at third base seven times and in the outfield in one game, though that was on an emergency basis. In the minors, Caratini played in 86 games at first base, starting 84 of those and played in 59 games at third base, starting 57 of those. He even made a start at shortstop once while playing rookie ball in 2013 while with the Braves.

His last start in the minors at third base was in 2018, but has more recently during the winter in 2018-2019 and again in 2019-2020 while playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League. He made appearances in eight games at third base, starting seven of those. Caratini has also started six games, playing in seven at first in those two seasons. 

Concluding Thoughts
This leads to the question, could Severino join the catching tandem and push Caratini into a corner infield spot? My guess is no. With postseason intentions, Milwaukee must consider the fact that Severino will not be eligible for the playoffs this year due to the suspension. There could be value in limiting reps for the current catchers, but Severino has horrible framing, and his hitting is enough. I expect him to be traded or designated for assignment once he returns barring all injuries.

I have spoken of positional flexibility, but the Brewers will not be likely to utilize Caratini outside of catcher often. Third base, or especially first base, have been performing decently enough, with an OPS of 0.659 for third basemen and 0.789 for first basemen. The OPS at third is lower than the league average for third basemen, which is 0.719, while the overall league average is 0.705.

I don’t expect him to man the hot corner at all, due to lack of recent experience there as well as the return of Mike Brosseau and rise of Jace Peterson this year. Caratini could see reps at first, but not enough to need to carry an additional catcher. Rowdy Tellez will remain the main option at first base.

TL;DR
Pedro Severino would be a very useful player to have within the organization despite his framing concerns due to the rest of his defense and decent hitting, but is not a better option than what the Brewers have right now. Victor Caratini filled in the void left by the suspension, and Narvaez has performed as expected. Due to not having an remaining options to the minors, I expect Severino to be leaving the Milwaukee Brewer organization following his suspension's completion.

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