Article: Choosing Renfroe Over Garcia Paying Off for the Brewers

[Tim Muma]

While the Milwaukee Brewers didn't acquire Hunter Renfroe directly for Avisail Garcia, it was clear they saw Renfroe as Garcia's replacement in right field in 2022. As we near the end of June, it is looking like a fantastic call.

In 2021, Avisail Garcia led the Brewers in home runs (28) and RBI (86) and finished second in OPS (.820). He even had a huge July and August before falling to Earth in September. Due partly to a balky back, Garcia scuffled down the stretch and had a terrible NLDS performance with eight strikeouts, zero walks, and a slash line of .133/.188/.133/.321 in the four games.

Despite the late-season concerns, the Miami Marlins inked Garcia to a four-year, $53 million deal with a club option for a fifth year. Brewers' General Manager Matt Arnold and President of Baseball Operations David Stearns had no interest in signing the now 31-year-old outfielder to a contract of that size and length. So it was on to "Plan B."

Later that day, Milwaukee announced they traded Jackie Bradley Jr. and a pair of minor leaguers for Hunter Renfroe . The Brewers saw Renfroe's power as a perfect fit for Milwaukee at a more reasonable price than Garcia's. The 30-year-old veteran is making $7.65 million this season and has one year of arbitration before becoming a free agent after the 2023 season. But the Brewers are in a World Series window, so the most important aspect is production. Through June 19, Renfroe is dominating that comparison.

 

Their slugging percentages, OPS, and wOBA (weighted on-base average) speak for themselves in terms of raw statistics. Both OPS+ and wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) consider the players' ballparks, too. Even though Miami's stadium is a pitcher's park and American Family Field is neutral, these numbers still show an enormous gap between Renfroe's production versus Garcia's.

Breaking it down to an even more basic level continues to show Renfroe miles ahead. The Brewers' slugger now has 13 home runs (tied for 13th in the NL) and 27 RBI. Meanwhile, Garcia has a mere four homers and 17 RBI. Renfroe has also shown better plate discipline than Garcia, sporting a 25.9% strikeout percentage (K%) with a 6.3% walk percentage (BB%). Garcia owns a 28% strikeout rate (the highest of his career) and a 3.7% walk rate, his worst since 2013. Everything about Renfroe at the dish puts him ahead of Garcia in 2022.

After Renfroe's three homers in three days over the weekend, he may be heating up at a great time. Milwaukee has needed more consistent offense with injuries to the lineup and pitching staff, and with the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays coming to town, run-scoring will be critical for the Brewers. If Renfroe can solidify the middle of the order, the rest of the hitters can settle in to their own roles. Offense is key for Renfroe, but he is also delivering on the other side of the ball.

Some may argue Garcia is a superior defender, and Statcast has rated him well in the past, but it is hard to see a noticeable difference. While Garcia appears quicker and has made his fair share of high-quality plays in the past, his defense has declined. He has taken more consistent poor routes the past two seasons and has often looked uneasy as he has aged. 

Though Renfroe also will lumber in the outfield a bit, his value lies in the cannon of a right arm he possesses. Renfroe leads the NL in outfield assists with seven after tying for the MLB top spot last season with 16. Garcia finished with just four assists in 2021 and has only a couple this year. Renfroe's ability to gun down base runners and prevent others from even trying to advance is an underrated weapon Milwaukee hasn't had in a while. 

Considering everything together, the Brewers deserve major kudos for deciding to acquire Renfroe and to move on from Garcia quickly. Unloading Bradley Jr.'s contract (and his inept offense) was enough for some. Adding Renfroe's power bat and arm to the mix has made the trade an "A" for now, and it could go up depending on the way things shake out for Renfroe and the Brewers come October.

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[Brock Beauchamp]

It’s always risky to make these kinds of lateral moves but it was a good bet to sacrifice prospects for money and contract length before you even get to the superior performance level of Renfroe this season. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It’s always risky to make these kinds of lateral moves but it was a good bet to sacrifice prospects for money and contract length before you even get to the superior performance level of Renfroe this season.