Assignment - Rule 5 Draft Eligibility

[Joseph Zarr]

I've been shouting from the top of the dugout for darn near four months in support of Cam Devanney. He has all the tools, today, to get spot play at the MLB level as a Rule 5 pick. I will be entirely unsurprised if he gets scooped up. It was quite simply a mistake to not protect him - there is sooooo much smooth and bourgeoning power to his game. All management and personnel staffs make oversights and errors. In my estimations, this was one of those. I say this having watched Cam's 2022 season from literally Game 1  in Pensacola.

At this point, all I can do is hope he sneaks through. Sigh.

[jay87shot]

I doubt anyone takes a guy with 13 games of AAA experience who really has never been on a top 30 org prospect list. If he does get picked I would suspect there is a relatively high chance he gets returned. 

[Robocaller]

5 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I've been shouting from the top of the dugout for darn near four months in support of Cam Devanney. He has all the tools, today, to get spot play at the MLB level as a Rule 5 pick. I will be entirely unsurprised if he gets scooped up. It was quite simply a mistake to not protect him - there is sooooo much smooth and bourgeoning power to his game. All management and personnel staffs make oversights and errors. In my estimations, this was one of those. I say this having watched Cam's 2022 season from literally Game 1  in Pensacola.

At this point, all I can do is hope he sneaks through. Sigh.

Some GM will probably issue a statement like: We weren't sure whether we wanted to pick up Devanney, but the glowing reports from some guy named Joseph Zarr really opened our eyes.

[Robocaller]

9 hours ago, Mass Haas said:

 

Hey, but we got that Perkins guy. . .

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, Robocaller said:

Some GM will probably issue a statement like: We weren't sure whether we wanted to pick up Devanney, but the glowing reports from some guy named Joseph Zarr really opened our eyes.

[Joseph Zarr]

8 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I doubt anyone takes a guy with 13 games of AAA experience who really has never been on a top 30 org prospect list. If he does get picked I would suspect there is a relatively high chance he gets returned. 

A few things I would say to this:

1) There are numerous examples of really good players going straight to the Majors from Double-A (not to mention, Devanney was tearing it up at Triple-A). The Atlanta Braves had two of them this past season. 

2) I would say it's quite possibly much easier to hide a prospect you really covet as an end-of-the-bench developmental bat versus a bullpen arm you can only play when your being blown out. Devanney, imho, plays to this scenario as his defense is upper echelon as is his arm and he can give a home run threat in pinch hit situations.

3) Beyond the no-brainer top 5 or so prospects in a top 30, I actually find them relatively meaningless. This may be an unpopular opinion, and I know we compile our own Top 20 on site here at Fanatic and I mostly try to support the endeavor, but those non-elite high draft pick or int'l signing players are quite simply movable up and down that list as seasons play out. The sample sizes are simply much too small, typically. They overemphasize age. I find them a bit like the NFL Draft Industrial Complex. 

***

My main point with Devanney is and has been: The Brewers are an organization that lacks high end prospects at 3B (especially). Not only is Devanney a legit 3B prospect, he's a prospect who can slide over and very very competently handle SS. Why would you not toss out the COVID season and look at his two season where he flourished within legitimate off-season and in-season structure? We look to this past season and we see a bat that was red hot at Triple-A in a very intense playoff push. That checked a big reiterative box for me as I watched him in Biloxi all season to that point. He actually played better in a more competitive environment. Then, you couple the power; the gap power; the rbi capacity with truly top-tier defense and a cannon of an arm...it was just a no-brainer protection for me. And, to paraphrase 'The Dude': "Well, that is just, like, my opinion...man."

He may certainly still slip through and I hope that is the case. If he is nabbed, I'll experience a bummed out moment because I'll have one less thing to look forward to when I watch the many Brewers affiliate games I do on a yearly basis. He is a defensive highlight waiting to happen. And, man, with a developing power stroke he was fast becoming 'must watch' for me.  

[Outlander]

I probably like Cam more than Brosseau at this point as he can actually play good infield defense. Just seems obvious he will be called up next year at some point when guys get injured so might as well add him to the 40 man now.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Exposing him was a mistake. If he doesn't get picked, it's still a mistake, just one we were fortunate enough to not have to pay for.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Devanney is an interesting case. If you look at the higher prospect profile shortstops (or at least nominally shortstops) left available for the Rule 5, they either 1. haven't hit AA yet 2. are more contact/defense profiles or 3. have serious strikeout issues. 

Of all shortstops in the upper levels who have 0 major league experience and posted a strikeout rate less than 25% and an ISO of at least .2, Devanney is the only one unprotected. If you drop the ISO down to .15, you still only have five others, and they are also older prospects (Devanney is only a couple of months from being the youngest). A couple, including Brewers COVID purge casualty CJ Hinojosa, have been through minor league free agency a time or two. If you are looking for a utility infielder with pop and without severe contact issues in the Rule 5 draft, Devanney pretty much has to be your guy.

That being said, the thing that might keep him from being selected is that he isn't a natural fit to be picked by many teams. Most of the rebuilding teams could target younger, higher upside players and your large market contenders are going to be filling that spot with someone safer than a player who had only a late season cameo in AAA. You are probably looking at either a small market at least fringe contender with an available utility infield spot or a rebuilding club willing to draft multiple players. The fact that the Brewers might be one of his best fits and didn't protect him is the one thing that makes me think he might go undrafted.

[sveumrules]

If Devanney gets selected, doesn’t get returned before opening day, sticks with the acquiring club all season and has a modicum of MLB success while the Brewers struggle with IF depth, sure it was a mistake.

If Cam doesn’t get selected, the Brewers didn’t dodge a bullet or get lucky, they read the room the correctly.

[patrickgpe]

50 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

If Devanney gets selected, doesn’t get returned before opening day, sticks with the acquiring club all season and has a modicum of MLB success while the Brewers struggle with IF depth, sure it was a mistake.

If Cam doesn’t get selected, the Brewers didn’t dodge a bullet or get lucky, they read the room the correctly.

honestly if he gets selected, and becomes a slightly +1 +2 WARP (what I would think is a modicum of success), is that really a mistake. Those guys are available all over the place. There has been players that you can easily deem a mistake to expose (Ryan Pressley, Obdul Herrera), but those guys are few and far between. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Is losing a guy who's ceiling is probably as a utility infielder really that big of a deal? Yeah, I get that the Brewers don't really have much as far as 3B prospects in the system, but having a guy like Devanney in the system in 2023 really isn't going to change that. 

[Lathund]

13 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

2) I would say it's quite possibly much easier to hide a prospect you really covet as an end-of-the-bench developmental bat versus a bullpen arm you can only play when your being blown out. D

Logically you'd think so, but the ratio of position players to pitchers (Usually relievers) picked in the draft would suggest that teams don't think so. So few position players get taken each year that I think Devanney will be safe. I hope so anyway. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Lathund said:

Logically you'd think so, but the ratio of position players to pitchers (Usually relievers) picked in the draft would suggest that teams don't think so. So few position players get taken each year that I think Devanney will be safe. I hope so anyway. 

I have often wondered if that is because of where teams think they can stash players or if it a function of who gets protected. Are there more relief pitchers (or starters a different team thinks has stuff that will play up in the bullpen) left unprotected than hitters who could at least have some level of competency in the big leagues?

[jay87shot]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

There are usually only a couple players who get picked and stay on that team the entire year. I would say there is a decent chance he gets picked in the later stages but still a low chance he breaks camp with the team and even lower that stays up the entire year. The 1st 5 or 6 teams that pick are teams he could conceivably make but I can see him making a team that picks in the middle or end of the rule 5.

[igor67]

The way rosters have tilted in favor of pitchers may also factor in to being willing to risk exposing someone like Cam. Even on a bad team it's hard to avoid giving a position player well over 100ABs during the season these days.

[Robocaller]

20 hours ago, Outlander said:

I probably like Cam more than Brosseau at this point as he can actually play good infield defense. Just seems obvious he will be called up next year at some point when guys get injured so might as well add him to the 40 man now.

I don't know if we can do so now, but it doesn't matter as he'd still be eligible for the rule V. He wasn't on the 40-man at the deadline.

[Robocaller]

8 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Is losing a guy who's ceiling is probably as a utility infielder really that big of a deal? Yeah, I get that the Brewers don't really have much as far as 3B prospects in the system, but having a guy like Devanney in the system in 2023 really isn't going to change that. 

I think his ceiling is "quality starter." But even if he had Jace's role, that would be extremely valuable.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

14 hours ago, Robocaller said:

I think his ceiling is "quality starter." But even if he had Jace's role, that would be extremely valuable.

Perhaps. But I think perception in this case may be a little skewed by the lack of quality 3B prospects in our system over the years. Jace Peterson types aren't typically difficult to find, either.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Perhaps. But I think perception in this case may be a little skewed by the lack of quality 3B prospects in our system over the years. Jace Peterson types aren't typically difficult to find, either.

If you can find someone who can provide consistent production in that role, though, it has value. Otherwise you are always left hoping that this year’s pickup will pan out.

[sveumrules]

Not sure this deserves its own thread given our odds, but totally forgot the new CBA included a draft lottery for the top six picks, which will be going down on Dec 6th, the day before the Rule 5 draft.

What a year to miss the playoffs!! 

Looks like the Brewers odds are 0.2% to land pick #1 slowly rising all the way up to 0.5% to get pick #6. 

If the Cubs, Giants or Red Sox jump into the top six out it could be the most attention the MLB draft has gotten since Bryce Harper.

[damuelle]

40 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Not sure this deserves its own thread given our odds, but totally forgot the new CBA included a draft lottery for the top six picks, which will be going down on Dec 6th, the day before the Rule 5 draft.

What a year to miss the playoffs!! 

Looks like the Brewers odds are 0.2% to land pick #1 slowly rising all the way up to 0.5% to get pick #6. 

If the Cubs, Giants or Red Sox jump into the top six out it could be the most attention the MLB draft has gotten since Bryce Harper.

To me, this is essentially David Stearns' parting gift to the rest of us. Most likely we won't win anything (lump of coal), but if we end up with a pick in the Top 6 we may just have to hail him as a genius (plastic candy canes filled with seemingly unlimited chocolate).

[Joseph Zarr]

On 11/30/2022 at 6:51 AM, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Is losing a guy who's ceiling is probably as a utility infielder really that big of a deal? Yeah, I get that the Brewers don't really have much as far as 3B prospects in the system, but having a guy like Devanney in the system in 2023 really isn't going to change that. 

I guess this comes down to where you view his ceiling. Given I watched the majority of Cam's games this past season, I'd say his ceiling is a poor man's Nolan Arenado - quite a bit more than a utility player. I say this considering how fluid he is on the diamond - with his glove and his arm - and where I see his improvements at the plate and where he could go if he continues to fine tune his approach at the plate. I say 'Poor man's' in that he doesn't have that pedigree and he isn't quite the athlete of an Arenado. But, he certainly shares characteristics 'in the mold of'. But, make no mistake, Devanney plays with a smoothness and a grace and yet his arm is an absolute cannon. The bat development is the intriguing part - can he hit for more average? Can he start playing the oppo strategically? Can he continue to adjust to off-speed? All the questions you would consider for any potential-laden prospect. Time will tell. I would offer he's in an 'in-between' stage of his growth as a player. But, where he has gotten to now is quite a solid place to play from.

And, naturally, I could be entirely wrong in my assessment. This is simply what I see. And as @sveumrulesalluded to: the Brewers may simply be reading the greater room.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Devanney will be 26 in April. That's probably another big reason he was left unprotected. 

[Joseph Zarr]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Devanney will be 26 in April. That's probably another big reason he was left unprotected. 

Yup. Tho, Singleton just turned 31 so who knows what this means within the organization.