Assignment - Rule 5 Draft Eligibility

[Mass Haas]

I know we have posters who thrive on tracking the minutia of Rule 5 eligibility. Does anyone want to volunteer in providing information on Crew farmhands similar to what you see here at SoxProspects.com?

Isn't there a traditional tracking location (Fangraphs or the like) that makes this information readily available as well?

Please let us know if you are accepting the challenge so there is not a duplication of efforts, thanks!

[Mass Haas]

In conjunction, those eligible for minor league free agency this fall if not added to the 40-man is alwyas helpful - Lucas Erceg as an example, in his 7th season, drafted in 2016.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I will volunteer.  I have the Rule 5 list for this offseason already.  How do you want them formatted?  Should I just post it in this thread?

[Mass Haas]

5 hours ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I will volunteer.  I have the Rule 5 list for this offseason already.  How do you want them formatted?  Should I just post it in this thread?

Wonderful, posted in thread is fine, thanks so much.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Let's start with the rules.  Per COTs contracts:

Rule 5 Draft
The Rule 5 draft is held each December at the Winter Meetings, and it consists of a Major League portion and a minor league portion. By November 20, each club must set its 40-man roster and submit reserve lists for all major and minor-league levels (See Minor League Rosters). Between November 20 and the Rule 5 draft, a club may add Major League free agents to its 40-man roster but may not add any player from its minor league reserve lists.

After 4 or 5 years as a professional, a player must be added to his club’s 40-man roster or exposed to the 29 other clubs in the Rule 5 draft. (Under the new CBA, a club has 5 years to evaluate a player who signs his first pro contract at 18 years old or younger, but only 4 years to decide on a player who signs at age 19.) For purposes of calculating years as a pro, counting begins the day a player signs his first pro contract, not the season he begins play.

The following player are eligible for Rule V at the end of this year.  If you see any errors, please let me know.

Caden Lemons
Alec Bettinger
Dylan File
Robbie Hitt
Brent Diaz
Tristan Lutz
Max Lazar
Jevon Ward
Justin Bullock
Karlos Morales
Cam Robinson
Victor Castenada
Matt Hardy
Alex Hall
Michele Vassalotti
Ernesto Martinez
Daniel Castillo
Israel Puello
Juan Geraldo
Carlos Rodriguez
Larry Ernesto
Jesus Chirinos

Noah Zavolas
J.T. Hintzen
Clayton Andrews
Scott Sunitch
Joey Matulovich
Brady Schanuel
Brice Turang
Joe Gray
Micah Bello
Justin Jarvis
Arbert Cipion
Wade Beasley
Pablo Garabitos
Felix Valerio
Eduardo Garcia
Abner Uribe
Jolon Zhao
Eduarqi Fernandez
Jhoan Cruz
Oswel Leones
Jose Acosta
Zack Mort
Alberis Ferrer

Antoine Kelly
Nick Kahle
Thomas Dillard
Nick Bennett
Gabe Holt
Taylor Floyd
Arman Sabouri
Jackson Gillis
Cam Devanny
Ashton McGee
Zach Vannaro
Jhonnys Cabrera
Branlyn Jaraba
Rafael Martinez
Mario Perez
Carlos Roa
Caleb Boushley
Luis Contreras
Luis Silva
Tyler Gillies
Robbie Baker
Christian Tripp
Junior Montero
Josh Shapiro
Reidy Mercado
Rafael Garcia
Jesus Parra? (signed on 8/30/2018)

Minor league free agents at the end of 2022:
Brian Navarreto
Tyler White
Jon Singleton
David Dahl
Abraham Almonte
Garrett Whitley
Wes Wilson
Andrew Monasterio
Corey Ray
Josh Lindblom
Jackson Reetz
Tyler Herb
Harold Chirino
Lucas Erceg
Hobie Harris
Conner Sadzek
Zack Brown
Andy Otero
Moises Gomez
Jason Lopez
Yeison Coca
Carlos Luna
Arnaldo Hernandez
Nash Walters
Antonio Pinero
Jose Sibrian
Jean Carmona

[ClosetBrewerFan]

My early opinions on who we need to protect are:

Locks (3): Valerio, Turang, A. Kelly

Possibles (3): Lutz, Casteneda, Devanny

Long shots (7): Lazar, C. Robinson, Vassalotti, Gray, Bello, Jarvis, Ciprion.

I also think there Erceg has a shot of being put on the 40 man roster to avoid minor league free agency.  His results have not been great, but you hate to let a guy go who can hit triple digits.

[CheeseheadInQC]

36 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

My early opinions on who we need to protect are:

Locks (3): Valerio, Turang, A. Kelly

Possibles (3): Lutz, Casteneda, Devanny

Long shots (7): Lazar, C. Robinson, Vassalotti, Gray, Bello, Jarvis, Ciprion.

I also think there Erceg has a shot of being put on the 40 man roster to avoid minor league free agency.  His results have not been great, but you hate to let a guy go who can hit triple digits.

I know he is hurt, but I'd put Uribe in the lock category . He is the exact sort of player who often gets picked.

Locks (3): Turang, A. Kelly, Uribe

Possibles (5): Valerio, Castaneda, Devanney, Lutz, C. Robinson

Long shots (4): Jarvis, E. Garcia, Andrews (If healthy), Vennaro

I'd put Matt Hardy in the possible category except I think if the Brewers think enough of him to protect him he's going to be given a big league shot before the season is over anyway and it will be a moot point. The Wisconsin outfielders could move up into the longshots category with strong second halves, but right now I'm not seeing it happen.

I think Vennaro is Rule 5 eligible as well.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

7 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I know he is hurt, but I'd put Uribe in the lock category . He is the exact sort of player who often gets picked.

Locks (3): Turang, A. Kelly, Uribe

Possibles (5): Valerio, Castaneda, Devanney, Lutz, C. Robinson

Long shots (4): Jarvis, E. Garcia, Andrews (If healthy), Vennaro

I'd put Matt Hardy in the possible category except I think if the Brewers think enough of him to protect him he's going to be given a big league shot before the season is over anyway and it will be a moot point. The Wisconsin outfielders could move up into the longshots category with strong second halves, but right now I'm not seeing it happen.

I think Vennaro is Rule 5 eligible as well.

Thanks for the catch on Vennaro.  The UDFA's are easy to miss.  I was close to adding Hardy as a long shot (and Vennaro is in the same boat).  Their WHIP is too high for me right now, but they have a chance.  More likely that they would be added in-season if we have any more need for RP.

Note that I don't believe the Brewers will be in any real roster crunch this offseason.  They have 3 FA's, a couple of club options, and some non-tender decisions to make.  Even with the extra players on the 60 DL and restricted list, they should have no problem adding the players they want to keep.  I'm sure most of these guys will get left unprotected.  The Brewers historically have been willing to roll the dice with borderline guys and it has not hurt them much.

[damuelle]

Are we assuming that Jakson Reetz is under contract for another year?  It's always difficult to know with minor league free agent signings (see Mitch Longo, Matt Lipka, Jamie Westbrook, David Dahl last year).

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

Are we assuming that Jakson Reetz is under contract for another year?  It's always difficult to know with minor league free agent signings (see Mitch Longo, Matt Lipka, Jamie Westbrook, David Dahl last year).

There are a few missing. I'd done the Rule 5 eligible to see how much time it took before deciding if I wanted to volunteer to do every year. There are a lot, and ClosetBrewerFan caught a few that I missed. It is labor intensive because it relies on signing date instead of what year the contract starts and I couldn't find the exact wording of the rule anywhere (I believe Jesus Parra is either Rule 5 eligible by two days or doesn't need to be protected by about 10 depending on how they measure it). 

That is the plus side to moving the Latin American signing day to the offseason. The players have stopped accruing a Rule 5 season despite their contract not even starting until the following season.

I think Andruw Monasterio, Corey Ray, Josh Lindblom, Reetz, Tyler Herb, Harold Chirino and Jose Sibrian would be added to the free agents and Jhonnys Cabrera, Branlyn Jaraba, Rafael Martinez, Mario Perez, Carlos Roa, Caleb Boushley, Luis Contreras, Luis Silva, Tyler Gillies, Robbie Baker, Christian Tripp, Junior Montero, Josh Shapiro, Reidy Mercado and Rafael Garcia to the Rule 5 list. I will admit I just guesstimated on a couple of the Latin American guys in the rule 5 section, so I am not 100% sure on them. It was taking a long time, 

[Outlander]

Appreciate the work Cheeshead, getting a 100% accurate list for an entire organization is a tall task.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Yeah.  Looks like i missed a bunch.  I'll take Cheeshead's list and double-check those and then add them to the original post.  Note: I found that fangraph has a column in their roster resource table for this.  Its still a little confusing and you have to dig a bit to determine Rule 5 vs. minor league FA, but its a nice double-check:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/brewers

Thanks for the help.

[CheeseheadInQC]

19 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

Yeah.  Looks like i missed a bunch.  I'll take Cheeshead's list and double-check those and then add them to the original post.  Note: I found that fangraph has a column in their roster resource table for this.  Its still a little confusing and you have to dig a bit to determine Rule 5 vs. minor league FA, but its a nice double-check:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/brewers

Thanks for the help.

No problem. It almost takes two people with the eligibility rules just to double check each other. Gave me a new appreciation for the work Mass Haas and others have done compiling these lists over the years.

I wish that Fangraphs page included Parra because this Baseball America article says that it depends on if the signing date is after the end of the season of the team they are assigned to the next year. Parra, from what I read, signed after the Brewers' team's season was done but before the DSL postseason was done, so who knows. Not that he is a threat to be picked in the major league phase, but it would be nice to not have to protect him in the AAA phase since there are probably going to be about 35 players on the Rule 5 list that they don't have room to protect there.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I added in your list of players.  I agree they should be added.  I also agree I have no idea whether Parra is eligible.  I believe in years past we ran our list past the Brewers to get confirmation.  If someone has a contact with them, it would be good to do, because these international signings are really tricky.  I spot checked a couple of other names (Nader Garcia, Raul Mendoza, Nelson Cuevas) and they are not eligible.  I'm not sure there is much value in digging through Arizona/DSL clubs to see if anyone is eligible.  I'm not planning to do that for the future year eligibles.  I'd like to focus on the bigger names to see who we need to plan for protecting.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I can take care of the ACL and DSL teams. The last two classes of Latin American signings should have fewer borderline guys.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I knocked off the rest.  Please list international signings that I missed (and anyone else)

Eligible for 2023 Rule 5 draft:
Jeferson Quero
Hedbert Perez
Jheremy Vargas
Jeferson Figueroa
Alexander Cornielle
Stiven Cruz
Blayberg Diaz
Nader Garcia
Raul Mendoza
Nelson Cuevas
Miguel Segura
Luis Medina
Edwin Jimenez
Fernando Olguin
Jesus Garcia
Terrance Doston
Darrien Miller
Garrett Mitchell
Freddy Zamora
Zavier Warren
Joey Wiemer
Noah Campbell
TJ Shook
Brandan Knarr

Eligible for 2024 Rule 5 draft:
Sal Frelick
Tyler Black
Russell Smith
Logan Henderson
Ethan Murray
Carlos F. Rodriguez
Tristan Peters
Zack Raabe
Brannon Jordan
Wes Clarke
Kaylan Nicasia
Ryne Moore
Kent Hasler
James Meeker
Shane Smith
Jacob Brustowski
Trevor Tietz

2025 notables: Chourio and Mendez

[CheeseheadInQC]

I hope these are right

Additions to 2023 list

Miguel Briceno
Jose Caballero
Breiner Carvajal
Eduarh Colina
Stanley Encarnacion
Mendy Ferreira
Jose Gonzalez
Yujanyer Herrera
Diego Larez
Fraudy Maldonado
Fray Morelo
Beyker Pastran
Michael Perdomo
Alexander Perez
Arnys Rodriguez
Brailin Rodriguez
Luis Watter
Jamal Zalm

Additions to 2024 list

Gregory Baez
Braudin Ciprian
Leoni De La Cruz
Miguel Guerrero
Delson Guzman
Domingo Mejia
Anthony Perez
Rosmel Reyes
Pedro Rivas
Waldin Rodriguez
Yerlin Rodriguez
Phili Silverio

2025 list

Jared Albir
Patricio Aquino
Jadher Areinamo
Jace Avina
Gregory Barrios
Kevin Briceno
Jesael Cabrera
Gerson Calzadilla
Cristofher Carrasco
Jairo Castillo
Junior Castillo
Luis Castillo
Jose Chavez
Jackson Chourio
Samuel Dario
Felipe De Los Santos
Andy Garcia
Duncan Garcia
Henry Garrido
Dencer Geraldo
Arielbi Gonzalez
Daniel Guilarte
Jonatan Guzman
Irving Igualas
Justin King
Darlin Lora
Quinton Low
Eric Martinez
Hendry Mendez
Ryan Middledorf
Henrison Mota
Demetrio Nadal
Jason Ollarve
Edgardo Ordonez
Brayan Oropeza
Jeison Pena
Roman Perez
Yeison Perez
Pedro Quintana
Anfernny Reyes
Erick Reyes
Reybert Reyes
Leonardo Rivera
Jesus Rivero
Edrian Robinson
Richard Rojas
Dikember Sanchez
Ney Serrano
Darling Solano
Felipe Valderrama
Alexander Vallecillo
Manuel Vargas
Hamlet Vasquez
Caden Vire
Jeral Vizcaino

2026 list

Juan Baez
Johan Barrios
Reminton Batista
Royer Cabrera
Justin Caceres
Daniel Corniel
Franddy De Los Santos 
David Dominguez
Anthony Flores
Yorman Galindez
Luis Garcia
Deylin Gomez
Gery Holguin
Luis Lara
Roman La Torre
Jhofez Mejias
Jose Meneses
Osbriel Mogollon
Daurys Mora
Francisco Nina
Jose Pena
Angel Pereira
Edgardo Reyes
Bryan Rivera
Aneuris Rodriguez
Manuel Rodriguez
Donis Rodriguez
Jhonny Severino
Ranwell Smith
Breijher Subero
Edwin Tamoy
Ludwin Tejada
Wande Torres
Fabricio Valera

[Joseph Zarr]

Goodness gracious, this is incredible work guys. My head is spinning. THANK YOU for putting this together - there are many moving parts and confusing deadlines/dates etc.

I'll add:

I'm protecting Uribe and Cam Robinson. Those arms are too valuable - development for promotion(s) OR used in trades. Both young men are absolutely electric. Cam's got nasty stuff, gents. He's also a guy who is completely comfortable with base runners. A lot of his stuff is improperly called (by umps) because it has so much bite and movement. His change-up, for example, essentially has the look of a 12-6 curve ball. The ump last night versus Quad Cities, as a recent example, missed two blatant strike three calls on buckling change-ups. He has two fast balls. He has a curve and a breaking ball blend (with the change). He leads the Midwest League in Saves my double the second place 'guy'. He's just a stud. He's a guy who could go either way - any relief role OR stretched. I think he's that good.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

We'll need to talk about how to maintain this list as it's already out of date.  For reference, new guys Marcus Walden is a free agent after this year and Patrick Dorrian is rule 5 eligible.

Is this list going to live in a post or on its own page?  The challenge will be the int signings, as we don't always see all of those.

[damuelle]

My views:

Yes, protect (2): Brice Turang and Felix Valerio

Likely protect (1): Abner Uribe

Could be claimed, but it's probably worth the risk of not protecting (4): Eduardo Garcia, Victor Castaneda, Justin Jarvis, Cam Robinson.

Of course, I thought that Korry Howell was a shoe-in to be protected last year and he wasn't.

[Playing Catch]

I would be pretty surprised if a team picked Valerio in the Rule 5 draft. Limited defensively, up and down season with the bat. Not a burner.

It would be tricky for an MLB team to carry such a player the whole season unless he hits and hits and hits.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Yah, I still like Valerio as a prospect, but he doesn’t fit the mold of a Rule 5 pick. He isn’t ready yet for an every-day spot but doesn’t really have the kind of versatility to stash in a utility role. I think Robinson is much more likely to get picked, and you can make the case Castaneda and Devanney are as well. If the Brewers are high enough on him, I could see him getting protected to eliminate any risk, but there are reasons he is less likely to be picked than you would think for a player of his ability.

I have Turang and Uribe as locks and Robinson as likely. Castaneda, Valerio, Devanney, Garcia and Jarvis fall into the conceivable but I would give it less than 50% chance of happening category.

[Mass Haas]

The definitive list of Rule 5 2022 eligibles will be posted in main article form by mid-week this coming week, similar to how the minor league free agent list was recently.

(Basically waiting for my vacation week to begin Monday...)

[Mass Haas]

 

[SF70]

22 minutes ago, Mass Haas said:

 

Fingers crossed.

I suppose the team went with the percentages. But this guy can easily stay on a teams roster this year.