Struggling to be optimistic

[edfunderburk]

I don’t consider myself to be a “negative Nellie” … rather, someone who is realistic & honest about what I see

I want Milwaukee to be a top MLB team, but I don’t believe they are even a playoff team in 2022

Injuries - primarily to pitchers - & ongoing offensive challenges have me wondering if being sellers at the trade deadline might be our best move

I’d hate to trade top prospects to acquire short-term help that may allow us to get to the postseason but would likely not help us win our first World Series

I’m aware that Atlanta won last year with this approach but I don’t believe that is a recipe for success & is certainly not likely to happen again anytime soon 

Am I alone?

What do you see in this team?

I’m ready to sell at the deadline - Hader & Burnes if necessary … Woodruff if he’s healthy … Yelich if anyone would take on his salary … no one on the MLB roster would be off limits 

I would rather protect our future - prospects - than any of these under-performing major leaguers

To be clear - in a perfect world (which doesn’t exist) - I would like to see Burnes signed to a five-year extension, but I don’t believe that is possible because we have too much invested in Yelich

Finally - I hope the Brewers release Cain ASAP & give Dahl or Davis from Nashville an opportunity 

I know some fans are far more optimistic than I am - but I fear those fans may be looking through “beer goggles” ?

I’d love to hear honest opinions of the state of this team

I’m convinced this is more than an extended slump  

The Brewers have not played well all year - even when they won early on

I believe we will struggle to finish 81-81

 

 

[Brewcrew82]

#1 Reason for optimism: Atlanta and Washington, the two most recent World Series winners in a 162 game season, were likewise beset by injuries and inconsistent play at this point in the season (they were actually in far worse shape than we currently are) only to turn around in August and September and ride that wave to a championship. 

As far as the current state of the team, there is no doubt that they are in a rough patch. But it is way too early and the Brewers have too much star power on the pitching side of things to throw in the towel at this point in the season. Could they continue to collapse and find themselves in clear selling territory by the deadline? Sure. But, even then, the last thing I would do is follow your suggestion and trade guys like Burnes/Woodruff. That would basically mean that we're conceding the next few years, in addition to this season. The NL Central is too weak in my opinion for us to do something along those lines.

As a result, I think we just simply have to wait out our current injury issues and then potentially reevaluate around the deadline. Woodruff coming back within the next week or so could be huge. Also, guys like Gott coming back to bolster our bullpen depth will be big as well. On the offensive side of the equation, there are a number of key guys (Yelich, McCutchen, etc.) who appear to be coming out of prolonged slumps, in addition to guys like Adames and Renfroe who are starting to get back in the swing of things after returning from injury. Overall, this is still the same team that won 95 games last year, and none of our injured players have been ruled out for the rest of the season. 

Finally, remember 2019? That team hovered around .500 the whole year and then picked it up in September to claim a wild card birth. Even without superhero Yelich, I still think they would've gone far in the playoffs had Hader not blown that save in Washington with how well they were playing. Really, it's just about getting to the playoffs....

 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Most teams suffer some kind of multi-week ugliness over the course of 162. This stretch has been painful to watch but I’m not going to become super concerned until the team drops to .500 or worse.

Last night’s game wasn’t even that bad, they lost a one run game to a very good Mets team. Overall, the Mets series was better than what we saw over the previous couple of weeks. 

[Thurston Fluff]

Definitely not the time to start selling. A slump at least partially caused by injuries is not enough to declare a division title out of reach. This is still the most talented team in the division and will start to show that at some point. As far as not being good enough to win it all goes, not getting to the playoffs is the only guarantee of not winning a World Series. If it took being the best team in the league to win it all the Dodgers would have more than one World Series title in the past decade and the Brewers would have been to two WS since 2011.

As far as cutting ties with players like Cain and McCutchen I'd rather wait a bit and see if we can use them in a trade to offset the cost of acquiring another player. I realize most teams looking to rebuild have no use for them but if they want to get some prospects they may be willing to take on a bit of salary to accommodate a trade. That's especially true if the player they're getting rid of has a larger contract or don't want a major league ready player. Yelich has a full no trade clause. He isn't going anywhere.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, Thurston Fluff said:

Definitely not the time to start selling. A slump at least partially caused by injuries is not enough to declare a division title out of reach. This is still the most talented team in the division and will start to show that at some point. As far as not being good enough to win it all goes, not getting to the playoffs is the only guarantee of not winning a World Series. If it took being the best team in the league to win it all the Dodgers would have more than one World Series title in the past decade and the Brewers would have been to two WS since 2011.

As far as cutting ties with players like Cain and McCutchen I'd rather wait a bit and see if we can use them in a trade to offset the cost of acquiring another player. I realize most teams looking to rebuild have no use for them but if they want to get some prospects they may be willing to take on a bit of salary to accommodate a trade. That's especially true if the player they're getting rid of has a larger contract or don't want a major league ready player. Yelich has a full no trade clause. He isn't going anywhere.

Also, Cain and McCutchen are two separate players. One of them is clearly no longer a major league hitter, while the other has picked it up recently on top of his stable underlying metrics and is also a notoriously slow starter. 

[edfunderburk]

10 minutes ago, Thurston Fluff said:

This is still the most talented team in the division and will start to show that at some point.
 

As far as cutting ties with players like Cain and McCutchen I'd rather wait a bit and see if we can use them in a trade to offset the cost of acquiring another player.

We must be watching two different teams

I agree that Milwaukee is more talented than Chicago, Cincinnati, & Pittsburgh … but as much as I hate the Cardinals, St. Louis has more overall talent than the Brewers (especially offensive talent)

 

Also … I only suggested cutting Cain loose - not Cutch 

 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

We must be watching two different teams

I agree that Milwaukee is more talented than Chicago, Cincinnati, & Pittsburgh … but as much as I hate the Cardinals, St. Louis has more overall talent than the Brewers (especially offensive talent)

 

Also … I only suggested cutting Cain loose - not Cutch 

 

I'd say it's about even. Brewers with the clear pitching edge (when healthy). Cardinals with the clear offensive edge. 

[edfunderburk]

23 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd say it's about even. Brewers with the clear pitching edge (when healthy). Cardinals with the clear offensive edge. 

Flaherty & Mikolas are pretty sharp 

Burnes is exceptional … Woody is talented but hasn’t ever had an entire season of success like Burnes … Peralta had one good season - now injured with no return date guaranteed 

[Jopal78]

23 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd say it's about even. Brewers with the clear pitching edge (when healthy). Cardinals with the clear offensive edge. 

Sure talent-wise yes. Results-wise its the Cardinals both offensively and defensively.

Anyways as a reason for optimism, the Brewers would likely need a total collapse to miss the playoffs in 2022. The NL is so bad, that 1/3 of the teams are already out of the hunt (Was, Pitt, Chicago, Cincy, and Colorado) and realistically Arizona and Miami will likely fade in the next month so the competition to get in the playoffs in the NL doesn't appear to be that fierce this year.  

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Flaherty & Mikolas are pretty sharp 

Burnes is exceptional … Woody is talented but hasn’t ever had an entire season of success like Burnes … Peralta had one good season - now injured with no return date guaranteed 

Burnes and Woody have been top 10 pitchers in baseball since 2020 (2019 in Woodruff's case), with Burnes being the best overall. Peralta was a top 20 pitcher last year and has now started throwing, which means, barring a setback, he'll likely be back sometime around August. In that same timespan, Flaherty has been injured pretty much the whole time and has only been worth 0.1 WAR when healthy. Meanwhile, Mikolas has also been injured and is having his first good season since 2018. I get you're struggling to be optimistic right now in light of this stretch of poor play, but those are the facts....

[NBBrewFan]

I think they still have a decent shot at the playoffs.  The Mets, Phillies and Braves in the East, the Brewers and Cardinals in the Central and the Dodgers, Giants and Padres in the West are the likely contenders for the 6 playoff spots. The advantage the Brewers and Cards have is they play the 3 worst teams in the NL more than the other teams play bad teams.

Will they go anywhere in the playoffs?  Sure there's a chance that multiple Brewers will get hot at once in the playoffs and lead the team to the World Series and more magically to a win.  Those chances may be less than any of us wants to admit. As last year, this offense just doesn't have any studs and the chances all of the meh players can get hot is just a pipe dream. Sure other teams have done it, but most of them had more talent.  The only thing Brewer fans need is for WI to legalize marijuana so the "trips" to the World Series have a chance.

[edfunderburk]

22 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Burnes and Woody have been top 10 pitchers in baseball since 2020 (2019 in Woodruff's case), with Burnes being the best overall. Peralta was a top 20 pitcher last year and has now started throwing, which means, barring a setback, he'll likely be back sometime around August. In that same timespan, Flaherty has been injured pretty much the whole time and has only been worth 0.1 WAR when healthy. Meanwhile, Mikolas has also been injured and is having his first good season since 2018. I get you're struggling to be optimistic right now in light of this stretch of poor play, but those are the facts....

Woody may be Top 10 in ERA & strikeouts … but he doesn’t win that often - that may be due to the struggling Brewers offense

It seems to me that he too often has a “dud” inning or two that prevents him from having a winning record

[edfunderburk]

To be clear - I LOVE the Brewers … I ache when they lose - always have 

I just don’t believe they are a good “team” this year

[Thurston Fluff]

31 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

We must be watching two different teams

I agree that Milwaukee is more talented than Chicago, Cincinnati, & Pittsburgh … but as much as I hate the Cardinals, St. Louis has more overall talent than the Brewers (especially offensive talent)

 

Also … I only suggested cutting Cain loose - not Cutch 

 

I don't expect Wainwright, Molina and Pujols to hold up over 162 games. Especially given the amount of games are played in a shorter period of time. That makes our pitching advantage bigger and the offenses disadvantage smaller over the course of the season.

As far as cutting Cain loose, why? He's a good fielder and base runner which may not be much for the salary but it's more than zero for the same cost. Like I said maybe he can be added to a trade to even out the contract of the person they traded for. Getting salary relief may be the difference between being able to afford a great player or just an average one at the deadline. It just doesn't make sense to cut someone when it's a sunk cost and he isn't blocking anyone.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, edfunderburk said:

Woody may be Top 10 in ERA & strikeouts … but he doesn’t win that often - that may be due to the struggling Brewers offense

It seems to me that he too often has a “dud” inning or two that prevents him from having a winning record

Wins are meaningless in evaluating a pitcher's quality. They're a "team" stat as opposed to an individual stat. Woodruff is easily top 10 in all of the stats that measure an individual pitcher's quality since 2020 (WAR, FIP, K/9, K-BB%, xFIP, SIERA, etc.) Then you add Burnes who is number one in all of those categories and you have a championship-caliber top of your rotation. 

[edfunderburk]

I may have been too optimistic earlier when I suggested we could be an 81-81 team in 2022

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I don't expect Wainwright, Molina and Pujols to hold up over 162 games. 

Aaaaaand like clockwork, Molina just hit the IL.

I see the injuries to the staff & remain optimistic that in time this is a group that can generate wins despite subpar offensive performances. And, while I have no idea what level this offense will settle at after 162 games, I see a great deal more players underachieving than the opposite, IMO. An upgrade is needed; I have little to no doubt there will be one. And I look at the NL Central & see no Mets, no LA, no Padres. I'm not supremely, we're-gonna-win-it-by-twelve-games confident, but I see no reason to sell unless things get a lot worse than I anticipate.

 

[Lathund]

13 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Flaherty & Mikolas are pretty sharp 

Burnes is exceptional … Woody is talented but hasn’t ever had an entire season of success like Burnes … Peralta had one good season - now injured with no return date guaranteed 

This is an absolutely baffling comment to me. Woodruff pitched 179 innings of 2.56 ERA only last year. You must have some extremely high bar for "success", 

 

13 hours ago, edfunderburk said:

Woody may be Top 10 in ERA & strikeouts … but he doesn’t win that often - that may be due to the struggling Brewers offense

It seems to me that he too often has a “dud” inning or two that prevents him from having a winning record

... or as it turns out, you prefer to blame the offense's struggles on Woodruff. Let's dimiss being top 10 in run prevention, to instead ding Brandon Woodruff for the inability of the offense to score runs. W-L record is essentially taking two stats that tell us useful things about a pitcher (Innings pitched and (E)RA), and adding one that tells us nothing about the pitcher (Runs scored) to make it worse. 

[LouisEly]

Is 40-year-old Wainwright going to hold up over 162 games?  Flaherty is talented, but hasn't been able to stay healthy and did not look sharp at all in his first outing off of the DL.  Behind that you have Mikolas (who missed most of 2021) and a bunch of nobodys. 

Get Woodruff and Peralta back, move Ashby to the bullpen so that Suter isn't getting any high-leverage innings, jettison Kelly, and it's a whole new situation.

[edfunderburk]

6 hours ago, Lathund said:

This is an absolutely baffling comment to me. Woodruff pitched 179 innings of 2.56 ERA only last year. You must have some extremely high bar for "success", 

 

... or as it turns out, you prefer to blame the offense's struggles on Woodruff. Let's dimiss being top 10 in run prevention, to instead ding Brandon Woodruff for the inability of the offense to score runs. W-L record is essentially taking two stats that tell us useful things about a pitcher (Innings pitched and (E)RA), and adding one that tells us nothing about the pitcher (Runs scored) to make it worse. 

Woodruff’s stats last year were excellent … but he was 9-10 

This year, he has been rather blah … ERA near 5

 

[SDBrew fan]

But he's 5-3!

[Brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, edfunderburk said:

Woodruff’s stats last year were excellent … but he was 9-10 

This year, he has been rather blah … ERA near 5

 

Pitcher wins mean nothing. Don't ever look at them. There's a reason Woody finished fifth in Cy Young balloting last year....

As far as this year, his ERA is very misleading and is held up by a forgettable start in cold-weather Chicago to start the season coming off a shortened spring training and another one in Cincinnati. Look past the ERA at the underlying metrics (FIP, xFIP, K/9, etc.) and you'll see that he's that same top 10 pitcher. 

[SRB]

There's zero reason to sell even if they don't turn things around soon. It is easier than ever to get into the playoffs, and once we are in the playoffs with a pitching-forward team anything can happen.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I know this won’t go over well with entrenched fans but from a bird’s eye view, the Brewers are the best team in this division and by quite a lot.

Two weeks are just that, two weeks. The season is roughly 27 weeks. 

[sveumrules]

There are only eight teams that are even trying to win in the NL this year. Of the Brewers 95 remaining games, only 41 are against teams angling for a playoff spot.

Even after a 1-10 stretch the Brewers “bottomed out” at seven games over .500.

After Sunday’s game the Brewers will have completed over half their road schedule for the year, 41 road games vs only 27 at home.

The schedule is about to flip from pretty heavily against the Brewers to pretty solidly in their favor with 14 more home games than road games the rest of the way,

Publicly available projection have the Brewers finishing between 87-89 wins.

Just context, no optimism necessary.