Article: Less Patience Would Be a Virtue for Brewers' Offense

[Tim Muma]

The Milwaukee Brewers' offense isn't working. They are tied for the second-most shutouts this season and have shown little ability to consistently score runs. A change in their collective philosophy at the dish is required, focused on more aggressiveness with the sticks.

This current group is too patient at the plate. It appears to be an organizational strategy as many players are more passive at the plate this season compared to their career trends. Patience in the box can result in fantastic outcomes, but it has to work for the hitters on the club. Milwaukee is built on power, not on-base skills, and their lack of swings at pitches within the strike zone hurts them more than other teams.

Entering Wednesday, the Brewers rank 21st in OBP (.304) and 15th in slugging percentage (.394), so it's not like the power has been significant thus far. Again, I argue it is because of how often they take strikes, thus wasting a chance to do damage on a hittable pitch and usually falling behind in the count.

The Brewers have the fifth-highest percentage of called strikes against them at 17.7% and swing at the seventh-fewest pitches in the zone (66.8%). Of course, hitters are far better when they are ahead in the count, but for Milwaukee, the gap is immense when batters fall behind. The Brewers rank sixth in OPS when ahead in the count but drop to 19th when the pitcher has the advantage. Not all teams who are as passive as Milwaukee will struggle offensively. A club must understand what works and what doesn't for its lineup.

Take the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians as examples. They have the two highest Called Strike Percentages (CStr%). Let's compare them to the Brewers, who have the fifth-highest CStr%.

Taking strikes does not work for the Pirates as they rank 28th in runs scored. Cleveland has the ninth-best run-scoring team because they so rarely strike out. Their K% is the lowest in baseball, so their hitters have no issue working counts while still being effective. Milwaukee strikes out slightly less often than Pittsburgh and has more power, giving them a better run output, though still in the bottom half of the league. It's only because of the Brewers' pitching - which has also faltered recently - that Milwaukee has a better record than both teams.

On the flip side of the patience quotient, you find the Atlanta Braves. They know who they are: a free-swinging, slugging offense with zero concern for strikeouts or walks. It helped bring them a World Series championship in 2021, and they are now two games better than the Brewers in the NL standings. Have they embraced what works better than the Brewers have?

Atlanta also walks less often than Milwaukee but still ranks third in OPS (.765), while the Brewers have a .698 OPS, good for 19th in baseball. The moral of the story is that based on the skill set of many Brewers' hitters, they need to let loose and hack away to produce more runs on a daily basis instead of crushing the ball for five games before disappearing for 18 of the next 20. For example, Milwaukee has scored three runs or less in 46% of its games, leading to a 7-22 record those days.

The change needs to be widespread as some evidence indicates a team-wide philosophy to take more pitches. Many guys are swinging less often at strikes than they have in their careers or have a higher percentage of called strikes against them (or both). Here is a breakdown of how some guys' 2022 approach is different than their career percentages.

• Higher percentage of called strikes and fewer percentage of swings in the zone: Hunter Renfroe, Rowdy Tellez, Luis Urias
• Lower percentage of swings in the zone: Kolten Wong, Tyrone Taylor
• Higher percentage of called strikes: Christian Yelich

That is a lot of regulars who are not getting their hacks in. It would make sense if it were working for them, leading to increased production and consistent runs for the team. But it hasn't been effective the past year-and-a-half, so it's time to make some changes - or really just let guys be themselves. More give, less take.

Short of bringing in a reliable bat or two, which is a possibility, Milwaukee doesn't have a lot of options to spark the offense. We all know the definition of insanity, and what the Brewers have been doing is driving people mad. With the pitching in a funk as well, it would be the perfect time to see the bats carry the load for a while. One can dream.

View full article

[jerichoholicninja]

I would say patience is a problem in MLB in general. When Moneyball led to everyone taking walks and working the count it made sense. The goal was to get a starters pitch count up so you could get to the bullpen which, at the time, was full of inferior pitchers compared to starters. Nowadays, relievers have better stuff than starters so forcing them into the game isn't really advantageous. There's also the fact that pitchers in general are just better than they used to be. Taking that first pitch fastball over the heart of the plate for a strike does the batter no favors when it's the best pitch they'll see.

[jerichoholicninja]

I would say patience is a problem in MLB in general. When Moneyball led to everyone taking walks and working the count it made sense. The goal was to get a starters pitch count up so you could get to the bullpen which, at the time, was full of inferior pitchers compared to starters. Nowadays, relievers have better stuff than starters so forcing them into the game isn't really advantageous. There's also the fact that pitchers in general are just better than they used to be. Taking that first pitch fastball over the heart of the plate for a strike does the batter no favors when it's the best pitch they'll see.

[Tim Muma]

7 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

I would say patience is a problem in MLB in general. When Moneyball led to everyone taking walks and working the count it made sense. The goal was to get a starters pitch count up so you could get to the bullpen which, at the time, was full of inferior pitchers compared to starters. Nowadays, relievers have better stuff than starters so forcing them into the game isn't really advantageous. There's also the fact that pitchers in general are just better than they used to be. Taking that first pitch fastball over the heart of the plate for a strike does the batter no favors when it's the best pitch they'll see.

I completely agree. Unless you have proven skills in the OBP department with great discipline, there is far less incentive now to work counts as much. Like you said, pitching is so good - even middle relief - don't want to fall behind any pitcher. 

[Tim Muma]

7 hours ago, jerichoholicninja said:

I would say patience is a problem in MLB in general. When Moneyball led to everyone taking walks and working the count it made sense. The goal was to get a starters pitch count up so you could get to the bullpen which, at the time, was full of inferior pitchers compared to starters. Nowadays, relievers have better stuff than starters so forcing them into the game isn't really advantageous. There's also the fact that pitchers in general are just better than they used to be. Taking that first pitch fastball over the heart of the plate for a strike does the batter no favors when it's the best pitch they'll see.

I completely agree. Unless you have proven skills in the OBP department with great discipline, there is far less incentive now to work counts as much. Like you said, pitching is so good - even middle relief - don't want to fall behind any pitcher.