Feels a lot like 2014 to me

[monty57]

16 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I used his numbers this year (44Ks in 81 ABs) to get 55%.

I don’t care what his splits are (and I especially don’t care what he did in 2019 before teams learned how to attack him at the plate), a player striking out 55% of the time doesn’t need more chances, and probably shouldn’t  be on the roster but for their long list of injuries. 

K rate is based on plate appearances, not at-bats.

I didn't reference anything regarding Hiura in 2019, 2020, or 2021. I agree that he needs to sink or swim based on where he's at now, not where he was three years ago. I did reference that McCutchen hasn't hit RHP well since 2019, as that is an important piece of information.

Splits are very important, so I don't know why you wouldn't care about them. Counsell is misusing Hiura. He has been utterly horrible against lefties this year, but he has been good against righties, and Counsell only starts him vs LHP. He finally got a start last night (against a lefty) after sitting for a week-and-a-half, and understandably looked bad. If they are only going to use him against left-handed starters, they might as well send him packing because just about anyone in the system would be a better option in that role than Hiura. 

I don't know how he'd end up, but with the current roster, he should be getting starts at DH against RHP. He's better than McCutchen in that role. He shouldn't get a long leash, but he's looked good enough against RHP to deserve that shot. If he doesn't do well, then put Brosseau, or just about anyone else on the roster at DH vs RHP, because everyone on the team other than Cain would be a better option than McCutchen as a DH vs RHP.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

K rate is based on plate appearances, not at-bats.

I didn't reference anything regarding Hiura in 2019, 2020, or 2021. I agree that he needs to sink or swim based on where he's at now, not where he was three years ago. I did reference that McCutchen hasn't hit RHP well since 2019, as that is an important piece of information.

Splits are very important, so I don't know why you wouldn't care about them. Counsell is misusing Hiura. He has been utterly horrible against lefties this year, but he has been good against righties, and Counsell only starts him vs LHP. He finally got a start last night (against a lefty) after sitting for a week-and-a-half, and understandably looked bad. If they are only going to use him against left-handed starters, they might as well send him packing because just about anyone in the system would be a better option in that role than Hiura. 

I don't know how he'd end up, but with the current roster, he should be getting starts at DH against RHP. He's better than McCutchen in that role. He shouldn't get a long leash, but he's looked good enough against RHP to deserve that shot. If he doesn't do well, then put Brosseau, or just about anyone else on the roster at DH vs RHP, because everyone on the team other than Cain would be a better option than McCutchen as a DH vs RHP.

I don't know, seems strange to go off plate appearances instead of at bats, but it doesn't make a difference. The percentage is too high either way for a major league player. Hiura simply  doesn't put the ball in play enough to warrant more playing time.

But you do mention Hiura's 2019 indirectly because his splits against RHP in 2020 and 2021 weren't good. His splits are driven by the 1.000 OPS against RHP in 2019, and the fact that 5 of his 12 hits against RHP this year went over the fence. Which is also why they're irrelevant: driven by numbers he put up 3 years ago before teams figured out how to successfully attack him, and some unsustainable luck that half of his hits against RHP this year left the yard.

It's too bad really, because a young middle of the order slugger is what this team needs. And, I'm not defending McCutchen or anyone else on the roster, but when Hiura basically hands the other team two free outs per evening, why should they rush to get him in the lineup?

 

 

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

I don't know, seems strange to go off plate appearances instead of at bats

The denominator is plate appearances because Hiura (& every other player) has walked in zero percent of their at bats.

[monty57]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It's too bad really, because a young middle of the order slugger is what this team needs. And, I'm not defending McCutchen or anyone else on the roster, but when Hiura basically hands the other team two free outs per evening, why should they rush to get him in the lineup?

 

 

Simply because the other option (McCutchen) is worse. 

I think we're on the same side here, in that we would both like a better option. I'd just give Hiura a chance vs RHP while they're looking for the replacement. His sample size this year vs RHP is very small, but that's because Counsell only starts him vs lefties where he's been beyond terrible (last night's performance dropped him from a 3 wRC+ to a -4 vs LHP). If he doesn't pan out as the "vs RHP" side of a DH platoon, then I'd move on to someone like Brosseau, or simply use the DH to give guys a day off. 

A month or so from now, I hope we're penciling someone like Mancini, Benintendi, or Bell into that spot. We just need to put someone there until the cavalry arrives, and I'd prefer that someone to not be McCutchen. At this point, having McCutchen as the everyday DH and starting Hiura vs LHP at any position is borderline insane. Just replacing those two slots with "league average"  production would vastly improve the offense.

To topic, we're not the 2014 team. We're younger and more talented. If we had the money to keep this team together for the next few seasons, we'd have a good shot at seeing a World Series during that time. The team has been in a slump for a couple of weeks that they will break out of, but they still need to give themselves the best chance to succeed. My recent "rant" of the past few posts has focused on what is what I believe to be the "weak link" in an otherwise strong "chain." 

They'll be fine, but I think they'd be "finer" if they'd make the aforementioned changes sooner rather than later.

[timpep]

21 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Hiura has 44Ks in 81 ABs, 55% of his ABs end up in a strike out. McCutchen has been bad for Milwaukee but has "only" struck out 24% of the time. There's no reason to give 4 ABs per night to a guy who K's that often, it'd be like playing with 25 outs instead of 27; that's why McCutchen plays over him nearly every night. 

 

You realize that Hiura actually reaches base safely about 10% more than McCutchen right? Playing McCutchen has led to more outs than when Hiura has played based on statistical reality. So I question the math that says playing the guy who gets on base more often would be like giving away outs....

[Jopal78]

55 minutes ago, timpep said:

You realize that Hiura actually reaches base safely about 10% more than McCutchen right? Playing McCutchen has led to more outs than when Hiura has played based on statistical reality. So I question the math that says playing the guy who gets on base more often would be like giving away outs....

Only because Hiura has fewer plate appearances, there isn't a doubt in my mind if Hiura had 220 plate appearances, he'd have a sub. 300 OBP. His most recent 550 plate appearances in the majors says he would anyways. 

The Brewers are a very patient organization which is why they haven't turned the page completely by now. Yet, I am surprised how many posters think that Hiura isn't the guy he was in 2019 because of some combination of lack of opportunity,  "mis-use" by a manager who is otherwise a master of playing the matchups, swing mechanics and off-the-field issues etc. 

 Occum's Razor would suggest the league learned how to attack him at the plate where he can neither hit it nor lay off of it and since that time he has failed to make a counter-adjustment. The annals of MLB are littered with guys with one big year to their name then zip. Everything else, at this point sounds like a lot of excuse making. 

McCutchen has sucked, and very well could be washed up. However, he puts the ball in play (which I know is frowned upon by the sabermetricians) which on a team of slumping light hitters is better than seeing three pitches and walking back to the dugout. The Brewers need somebody to get hot on offense for an extended period of time, that's what would cure this team.

Back to the topic: the 2014 team was almost the complete opposite of the 2022 club. In 2014, Milwaukee had a good offense and a mediocre pitching staff. Wily Peralta, Garza and Lohse made a combined 38 starts that year where they received 6+ runs of support. Their combined pitching record in those blowouts was 19-2 and yet the team finished only 82-80 on the season. The September swoon is what is remembered from that year, but their big lead vanished at the end of June during a 7 games losing streak. The ten game losing streak in September knocked them out of the hunt.