Feels a lot like 2014 to me

[JohnBriggs12]

In 2014, Brewers were riding high, 19 games over .500 on June 29th and then proceeded to lose 11 of their next 12, many of the losses being non-competitive.  Like this team they had tried to fill holes with aging veterans like Overbay and guys who struggle to make contact, Matt Reynolds.  They also had 36 year old Aramis Ramirez coming to the end and core players like Weeks missing time, and a young hot upcoming star not come near to approaching his All Star numbers of his prior year (Segura).  Roenicke had no answers and 2015 started horribly, costing him his job.

Yes they have had an incredible rash of injuries, but that doesn't explain everything,  This team is playing bad baseball.  Plain and simple.  Sure I think they'll get out of this tailspin (as the 2014 team did for a while) at some point and start looking more like the team they were in April and most of May, but how they reacted the first time they faced adversity doesn't bode well for how they'll handle the next time and there will be a next time.

Bottom line is everyone seems to have gotten a little too comfortable.  Let's hope it's not too late to shake things up and regain focus.

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

The pitching is nothing like 2014. There is both depth and top end talent the 2014 team could only dream of.

[NBBrewFan]

2 hours ago, Thurston Fluff said:

The pitching is nothing like 2014. There is both depth and top end talent the 2014 team could only dream of.

2014 Runs Allowed = 4.06/game

2022 Runs Allowed = 4.28/game

The 2022 pitching is nothing like 2014?  It doesn't matter what their promise, history or faith has been.  Once the games start the pitching is what the results are.

[JRob1125]

This is probably the best pitching staff in franchise history. A slump doesn't change that. The offense went cold, now the pitching is going cold. To me this feel like a really bad, somewhat unlucky stretch. 

[clancyphile]

I agree, so far, it is a bit of a slump. Over 162 games, that happens.

The real question is, how does this team turn it around? What needs to be done going forward?

[Thurston Fluff]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

I agree, so far, it is a bit of a slump. Over 162 games, that happens.

The real question is, how does this team turn it around? What needs to be done going forward?

This team has a string of recent success that the 2014 team didn't have. I can't help but think the 2014 team was sort of waiting for the other shoe to drop. When things started to go south it was harder to beleive they were really as good as their record was and it snowballed. This group knows they have the talent to win and are used to winning.

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, NBBrewFan said:

2014 Runs Allowed = 4.06/game

2022 Runs Allowed = 4.28/game

The 2022 pitching is nothing like 2014?  It doesn't matter what their promise, history or faith has been.  Once the games start the pitching is what the results are.

The 2014 team didn't have three All-Star starting pitchers, much less two of their three All-Star starting pitchers on the DL for an extended period of time.

[KeithStone53151]

The Dodgers lost 5 of 6 to the lowly Pirates, 3 of 4 to the Phillies, and recently just got 3 game swept by the Giants scoring a combined 4 runs. All this happened in the last 30 games or so. Is anyone ready to project them to tank their way to missing the playoffs? Teams go on streaks. I'm less concerned by a bad 2 weeks than I am by the injuries in general. Starting pitching was expected to be the strength of this team. Especially with Lauer/Ashby breaking out, you would expect pure domination on that front. But Woodruff and Peralta are both currently injured and have a 4.74 and 4.42 ERA respectively. Currently by ERA the Brewers are 9th in MLB in ERA. That's certainly not bad, but with the talent we have we should be in the top 3. That's the path to winning 95+ games. If Woodruff finds his 2021 form upon return from injury, I think we'll be fine. I'm sure we'll play good baseball again pretty darn soon and we'll add at the deadline to bolster the roster(CF/infield).

[monty57]

On 6/12/2022 at 11:35 AM, NBBrewFan said:

2014 Runs Allowed = 4.06/game

2022 Runs Allowed = 4.28/game

The 2022 pitching is nothing like 2014?  It doesn't matter what their promise, history or faith has been.  Once the games start the pitching is what the results are.

There was no DH in the National League that year.

This year's team is more talented across the board than the 2014 team. That team seemed like a fluke from the get-go, playing well above their true talent level for about a month when they were actually on a downward trajectory from the "all in" moves made in prior seasons. After a hot start, reality hit and they were bad for the next season-and-a-half until Attanasio finally realized it was time for wholesale changes.

Meanwhile, this year's team is one of the more talented teams in Brewers' history. It's easy to get discouraged in a losing streak, and anything can happen, but I still expect the 2022 Brewers to win their division.

[sveumrules]

On 6/12/2022 at 8:42 AM, JohnBriggs12 said:

In 2014, Brewers were riding high, 19 games over .500 on June 29th and then proceeded to lose 11 of their next 12, many of the losses being non-competitive.  Like this team they had tried to fill holes with aging veterans like Overbay and guys who struggle to make contact, Matt Reynolds.  They also had 36 year old Aramis Ramirez coming to the end and core players like Weeks missing time, and a young hot upcoming star not come near to approaching his All Star numbers of his prior year (Segura).  Roenicke had no answers and 2015 started horribly, costing him his job.

Yes they have had an incredible rash of injuries, but that doesn't explain everything,  This team is playing bad baseball.  Plain and simple.  Sure I think they'll get out of this tailspin (as the 2014 team did for a while) at some point and start looking more like the team they were in April and most of May, but how they reacted the first time they faced adversity doesn't bode well for how they'll handle the next time and there will be a next time.

Bottom line is everyone seems to have gotten a little too comfortable.  Let's hope it's not too late to shake things up and regain focus.

 

 

On June 29th of 2014 the Brewers were 51-32 with a 6.5 game lead in the division. FanGraphs thought they had a 57.4% chance to win the NLC at that point. Despite having the largest division lead in MLB at that point, the Brewers Division Odds were lower than all other division leaders at that point other than the Blue Jays, who had a 1.5 game lead in the ALE,

Today the Brewers are 34-28 and are 1.5 games back in the division with FanGraphs giving them a 55.2% chance to win the NLC.

That their division odds are essentially equal at this point to their division odds in 2014 despite being 13 fewer games over .500 with an 8 game smaller division lead while still 21 games farther away from the finish line illustrates how much better the 2022 team is (on a spreadsheet anyway) than the 2014 team was.

[rickh150]

2014 and 2017… just awful ends of the year

2012 just awful bullpen..Axford and KRod blew so many saves. That was a 95 win team with a 2011 pen.

[yfinn6]

This is just not a good team. There are good arms but the offense is just a mess. 

 

I know it's nothing we haven't discussed, but holy crap is that Yelich contract going to suck. 

[bork]

I think you're underestimating the injuries.  Missing 40% of the starting rotation, seems like every reliever and 2/3rd of the lineup at some time or another.  How many games have Urias, Wong and Adames played together?  Even if guys only miss a couple weeks, how much time does it take them to get back in a groove.

 

[Jopal78]

12 minutes ago, bork said:

I think you're underestimating the injuries.  Missing 40% of the starting rotation, seems like every reliever and 2/3rd of the lineup at some time or another.  How many games have Urias, Wong and Adames played together?  Even if guys only miss a couple weeks, how much time does it take them to get back in a groove.

 

But there’s the problem; even if 100% are Urias, Wong and Adames great offensive players?

No. Adames is a great hitting shortstop, Urias and Wong are average hitters at best, neither of whom would be amongst the top in the division at their respective positions offensively.

Which is the larger issue, with all middle of the road hitters, when a bunch of players all slump at the same time they don’t have that .850+ OPS hitter to pick up the slack.

[bork]

I'd rather see what they can do together, than what we've had, which is 1/3 of all starts at 2B, SS and 3B being made by Peterson and Brosseau.

[Jopal78]

3 minutes ago, bork said:

I'd rather see what they can do together, than what we've had, which is 1/3 of all starts at 2B, SS and 3B being made by Peterson and Brosseau.

Frankly, Peterson (.721 OPS in 140 ABs) and Brosseau (.798 in 68 ABs) have been two of their most consistent offensive players this year. 

My point was, even if healthy, there isn't a lot to get excited about offensively with Urias (career .717 OPS) and Wong (career .725). Moreover, even if Urias was hitting at .789 like last year, he'd still be somewhere around 5th best in the NL at 3B.; and given how up and down Wong has been offensively as a major leaguer, its really hard to argue his .709 OPS is disappointing. 

[monty57]

The Brewers are around "league average" or above at most offensive positions. Urias has been below average at 93 wRC+, but he's been battling several injuries. He has a ton of talent and posted a 111 wRC+ last year, so he should get a lot of "leash."

The "black holes" have been CF, with Taylor at 87 wRC+ and Cain at 27 (not a typo), and the fact that they refuse to sit McCutchen even though he deserves to sit. He has a 71 wRC+, -0.7 bWAR, an overall line of .230/.282/.327/.609 and has sucked vs LHP (.611 OPS) as much as he has vs RHP (.607 OPS). 

For now, Taylor should continue to start at CF and Hiura should be our regular DH vs RHP with Brosseau (when he's back from the IL) at DH vs LHP. Stearns should look for "rentals" at CF and DH and should cut Cain and McCutchen (in that order) as soon as those replacements are found. I think Cain cashed out in 2020 and has been "playing for a paycheck" since then, and while I thought McCutchen was a decent gamble this offseason, he seems to have hit the proverbial cliff. Hiura strikes out too much, but at least he's relatively young and has shown some signs of life this season, while Brosseau has been a pleasant surprise and should be rewarded for that. 

It's a long season, and downswings happen, but it looks like it's time to improve the obvious holes in the lineup to help get the team back on the winning track. I'm sure the team knows this, and Stearns is probably working the phones, but it's still only June, so we may need to go with what we've got for the next month or so. They've made the call to sit Cain, so now they need to get McCutchen out of the everyday role.

[brewers888]

27 minutes ago, monty57 said:

The Brewers are around "league average" or above at most offensive positions. Urias has been below average at 93 wRC+, but he's been battling several injuries. He has a ton of talent and posted a 111 wRC+ last year, so he should get a lot of "leash."

The "black holes" have been CF, with Taylor at 87 wRC+ and Cain at 27 (not a typo), and the fact that they refuse to sit McCutchen even though he deserves to sit. He has a 71 wRC+, -0.7 bWAR, an overall line of .230/.282/.327/.609 and has sucked vs LHP (.611 OPS) as much as he has vs RHP (.607 OPS). 

For now, Taylor should continue to start at CF and Hiura should be our regular DH vs RHP with Brosseau (when he's back from the IL) at DH vs LHP. Stearns should look for "rentals" at CF and DH and should cut Cain and McCutchen (in that order) as soon as those replacements are found. I think Cain cashed out in 2020 and has been "playing for a paycheck" since then, and while I thought McCutchen was a decent gamble this offseason, he seems to have hit the proverbial cliff. Hiura strikes out too much, but at least he's relatively young and has shown some signs of life this season, while Brosseau has been a pleasant surprise and should be rewarded for that. 

It's a long season, and downswings happen, but it looks like it's time to improve the obvious holes in the lineup to help get the team back on the winning track. I'm sure the team knows this, and Stearns is probably working the phones, but it's still only June, so we may need to go with what we've got for the next month or so. They've made the call to sit Cain, so now they need to get McCutchen out of the everyday role.

Cain has been so bad that the team had no choice but to bench him but McCutchen hasn't been much worse than most of the regulars so I fully expect Counsell to play him everyday unless he reaches similar levels of ineptness that Cain has shown. An analytically aware team like the Brewers should know that McCutchen hasn't hit righties in years and that Hiura has been pretty good against them but as most managers do Counsell is sticking with the veteran due to him being a star player years ago.

[wildcat2237]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Frankly, Peterson (.721 OPS in 140 ABs) and Brosseau (.798 in 68 ABs) have been two of their most consistent offensive players this year. 

My point was, even if healthy, there isn't a lot to get excited about offensively with Urias (career .717 OPS) and Wong (career .725). Moreover, even if Urias was hitting at .789 like last year, he'd still be somewhere around 5th best in the NL at 3B.; and given how up and down Wong has been offensively as a major leaguer, its really hard to argue his .709 OPS is disappointing. 

Jopal is spot on. This team just does not have an elite bat, much less multiple. It was supposed to be Yelich, but we all know he is a shell of 2018/19. 

We knew this was a problem at the end of 2021. But Stearns did very little to fix the problem. The problem has now come home to roost. 

IMHO if this team wants to compete it needs to acquire: 

1. Elite or very good DH. 

2. Elite or very good CF. 

3. One more reliever. Think a Boxberger clone or 2021 Strickland. 

This could be done but it would completely gut the system. 

Bottom line: The 2022 Brewers should be sellers. The offense is terrible and good teams are exposing the problem. 

[monty57]

4 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

Cain has been so bad that the team had no choice but to bench him but McCutchen hasn't been much worse than most of the regulars so I fully expect Counsell to play him everyday unless he reaches similar levels of ineptness that Cain has shown. An analytically aware team like the Brewers should know that McCutchen hasn't hit righties in years and that Hiura has been pretty good against them but as most managers do Counsell is sticking with the veteran due to him being a star player years agao.

Per Fangraphs by wRC+:

• Brosseau (128)
• Narvaez (122)
• Caratini (120)
• Tellez (111)
• Hiura (109)
• Adames (104)
• Peterson (100)
• Renfroe (100)
• Wong (100)
• Yelich (99)
• Urias (93) 
• Taylor(87)
• Reyes (79)
• McCutchen (71)
• Mathias (70)
• Jackson (38)
• Cain (27)

You're correct that McCutchen hasn't been nearly as bad as Cain, but he's been significantly worse than most of the rest of the Brewers' other options. That has been exacerbated by the fact that not only is he playing everyday, he's been at the top of the lineup. 

As I mentioned earlier, I get why they signed him, and I think it was a decent gamble, but it hasn't paid off. He's been given enough rope to hang himself, and now he should lose playing time. Hiura is significantly better vs RHP, and it looks like Brosseau is the better option vs LHP. 

If he were still young, then I'd be more apt to think that he could "regress to the mean" and start mashing. Unfortunately, he's not young so I think our best option is to move on and start giving the playing time to the younger guys who are producing.

Sorry for turning this into a "McCutchen thread," but the rest of our offense is doing okay on the season. He and the CF combo are the obvious places to try to improve.

 

[Jopal78]

47 minutes ago, monty57 said:

 

As I mentioned earlier, I get why they signed him, and I think it was a decent gamble, but it hasn't paid off. He's been given enough rope to hang himself, and now he should lose playing time. Hiura is significantly better vs RHP, and it looks like Brosseau is the better option vs LHP. 

 

 

Hiura has 44Ks in 81 ABs, 55% of his ABs end up in a strike out. McCutchen has been bad for Milwaukee but has "only" struck out 24% of the time. There's no reason to give 4 ABs per night to a guy who K's that often, it'd be like playing with 25 outs instead of 27; that's why McCutchen plays over him nearly every night. 

 

[bork]

1 hour ago, monty57 said:

I think Cain cashed out in 2020 and has been "playing for a paycheck" since then

Agreed. I think everyone thought 5 years was too long, but I thought we'd get more than 1 good year out of him.

[monty57]

15 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Hiura has 44Ks in 81 ABs, 55% of his ABs end up in a strike out. McCutchen has been bad for Milwaukee but has "only" struck out 24% of the time. There's no reason to give 4 ABs per night to a guy who K's that often, it'd be like playing with 25 outs instead of 27; that's why McCutchen plays over him nearly every night. 

 

I get it, Hiura has flaws, which is why I said that we should be looking for a "rental" DH. However, against RHP Hiura has a line of .308/.438/.718/1.155 for a wRC+ of 214!! He is not sustainably 2x as good as an average MLB hitter, but he should absolutely be starting against RHP to see if there is anything there of if he's just been "lucky" so far this year. We don't know, because Counsell has only allowed him 48 PA vs RHP, while the guy who's posting a .241/.300/.307/.607 line (73 wRC+) vs RHP has gotten 150 PA. If the thought is that he's just slumping, McCutchen had a 76 wRC+ vs RHP in 2021, and an 81 wRC+ vs RHP in 2020. 

I hate strikeouts as much as anyone. Hiura is at 46.3% K rate, not 55%. It's still bad, but that is partly because he has been misused, mainly starting against LHP, where he's struck out 53.2% of the time and is posting a 3 wRC+. Against RHP, he's "only" struck out 39.6% of the time (still way too much), but has hit the ball really, really well when he's made contact (again, reference that 214 wRC+). 

Meanwhile, Brosseau is hitting both lefties and righties pretty well. If Hiura does fall back to earth vs righties, then let Brosseau get more PAs. Just sit McCutchen down, he's hurting the team.

Obviously, the whole team has been slumping. The losing streak isn't on one guy, but the easiest way to get incrementally better is by replacing the weakest links. Cain was horrendous, and has been sent to the bench. It's time to give McCutchen more bench time, especially against RHP. Pitching-wise, we really just need to get healthy. We have a really good pitching staff, and it's hard to get too down on them because the guys who were supposed to be sitting in AAA are getting a lot of MLB innings.

[Jopal78]

19 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I get it, Hiura has flaws, which is why I said that we should be looking for a "rental" DH. However, against RHP Hiura has a line of .308/.438/.718/1.155 for a wRC+ of 214!! He is not sustainably 2x as good as an average MLB hitter, but he should absolutely be starting against RHP to see if there is anything there of if he's just been "lucky" so far this year. We don't know, because Counsell has only allowed him 48 PA vs RHP, while the guy who's posting a .241/.300/.307/.607 line (73 wRC+) vs RHP has gotten 150 PA. If the thought is that he's just slumping, McCutchen had a 76 wRC+ vs RHP in 2021, and an 81 wRC+ vs RHP in 2020. 

I hate strikeouts as much as anyone. Hiura is at 46.3% K rate, not 55%. It's still bad, but that is partly because he has been misused, mainly starting against LHP, where he's struck out 53.2% of the time and is posting a 3 wRC+. Against RHP, he's "only" struck out 39.6% of the time (still way too much), but has hit the ball really, really well when he's made contact (again, reference that 214 wRC+). 

Meanwhile, Brosseau is hitting both lefties and righties pretty well. If Hiura does fall back to earth vs righties, then let Brosseau get more PAs. Just sit McCutchen down, he's hurting the team.

Obviously, the whole team has been slumping. The losing streak isn't on one guy, but the easiest way to get incrementally better is by replacing the weakest links. Cain was horrendous, and has been sent to the bench. It's time to give McCutchen more bench time, especially against RHP. Pitching-wise, we really just need to get healthy. We have a really good pitching staff, and it's hard to get too down on them because the guys who were supposed to be sitting in AAA are getting a lot of MLB innings.

I used his numbers this year (44Ks in 81 ABs) to get 55%.

I don’t care what his splits are (and I especially don’t care what he did in 2019 before teams learned how to attack him at the plate), a player striking out 55% of the time doesn’t need more chances, and probably shouldn’t  be on the roster but for their long list of injuries. 

[jerichoholicninja]

Keston has the 6th highest OPS on the team right now. No matter how much he strikes out he's clearly a bat that should be playing near everyday (unfortunately).