Article: Brewers' Corbin Burnes is an Ace. Full Stop.

[Tim Muma]

There's a long way to go in the 2022 season, but the Milwaukee Brewers' Corbin Burnes is again on a Cy Young track. As is often the case with greatness, it feels like fans are taking him for granted. I implore you to admire and cherish each of his starts.

Corbin Burnes' ERA sits at 1.95 after his seven shutout innings against the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday. The reigning NL Cy Young struck out 11 Cardinals while allowing just one walk and a pair of hits in Milwaukee's 8-0 win. People expect him to be exceptional every time out; one starts to wonder if he is underappreciated at this point.

In case you find yourself sleeping on the stud right-hander, Burnes can be found atop the NL leaderboard in several categories.

• ERA+ (210)
• WHIP (0.820)
• Strikeout percentage (31.8%)
• Hits per nine innings (5.8)
• Strikeouts (78)

A 100 ERA+ is league average, so Burnes is 210% better in that statistic. Again, there are four months left to play, but if Burnes stays in the neighborhood of these stats, he might be setting franchise records. The combination of strikeouts and limited runners makes Burnes a nightmare to face. He has such a look and feel of dominance that fans negatively react when he gives up even one run. The fact is, Burnes remains among the elite in MLB when many argued he couldn't keep this up.

As you can see, when a pitcher has lots of red in these Statcast percentile rankings, he is a beast. While some of these figures are "expected" results or a sign of potential success, Burnes has produced the desired output. Like with Josh Hader, it's essential to review each hurler's stats to appreciate what they're doing. That should include non-traditional performance markers that can indicate a pitcher's stuff.

One of those metrics is Contact%, which is the percentage of times a hitter makes contact when swinging at a hurler's pitch. Burnes' 63.8 Contact% is nearly eight percent better than the next best qualified NL pitcher. Getting so many whiffs is indicative of terrific movement and location. His 47.8% O-Contact% (contact on pitches outside of the strike zone) is the only mark below 50% in the NL as Burnes teases hitters with borderline tosses that dart, dive, and zip past their lumber out of the zone.

Once again, it's Burnes' ridiculous cutter leading the way. According to FanGraphs' pitch value metric, Burnes' cutter is the most valuable pitch in MLB. The stat measure the total runs saved by a pitcher using that pitch. The Burnes' cutter has a 10.3 value through his 10 games. While his cutter is the most valuable pitch of any type, it might be even more interesting that Burnes' curveball has saved the most runs based on that pitch. Considering their effectiveness, it's no surprise Burnes is using both pitches more than he ever has before.

 

His six-pitch potential means it's difficult for Burnes to have a truly bad day. Hitters, however, have many rough nights. Though Burnes throws the cutter a ton, he can mix in a top-flight changeup or slider to throw a team off. A quality sign of hitters' consistent struggles is evident in the slash line against Burnes:

• .183 batting average (1st in NL)
• .233 OBP (1st in NL)
• .310 slugging percentage (5th in NL)
• .543 OPS (1st in NL)

It's an incredible feeling to have a true ace to count on every five or six days. Burnes has shown no signs of slowing, and hopefully, Brewers fans can soak it all in. There will always be the question of whether or not Milwaukee can sign him long-term. All the more reason to appreciate the incredible talent you get to watch right now. 

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[sveumrules]

It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020…

rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3

fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9

ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65

FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62

Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap.

Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.

[sveumrules]

It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020…

rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3

fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9

ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65

FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62

Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap.

Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020…

rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3

fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9

ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65

FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62

Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap.

Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.

You just reminded me how well that Wheeler contract has gone for Philly. He was the guy I really wanted to see the Twins sign, maybe the only individual pitcher I'm disappointed they missed out on in free agency in the past five years (mostly I lump free agents into groups and say "sign one of these people", rarely do I target specific guys).

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020…

rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3

fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9

ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65

FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62

Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap.

Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.

You just reminded me how well that Wheeler contract has gone for Philly. He was the guy I really wanted to see the Twins sign, maybe the only individual pitcher I'm disappointed they missed out on in free agency in the past five years (mostly I lump free agents into groups and say "sign one of these people", rarely do I target specific guys).

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You just reminded me how well that Wheeler contract has gone for Philly. He was the guy I really wanted to see the Twins sign, maybe the only individual pitcher I'm disappointed they missed out on in free agency in the past five years (mostly I lump free agents into groups and say "sign one of these people", rarely do I target specific guys).

Crazy thing about the Phils is all their big money FA deals (Wheeler, Harper, Realmuto) have gone well for the most part...and they still have just been hanging around .500 for like five years now.

As far as thins offseasons big ticket items, Castellanos (117 OPS+, -8 DRS, 0.2 WAR) and Schwarber (106 OPS+, -2 DRS, 0.3 WAR) haven't quite hit enough to offset their brutal defense so far, accounting for almost half of the Phillies MLB worst -22 DRS to start the season. 

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You just reminded me how well that Wheeler contract has gone for Philly. He was the guy I really wanted to see the Twins sign, maybe the only individual pitcher I'm disappointed they missed out on in free agency in the past five years (mostly I lump free agents into groups and say "sign one of these people", rarely do I target specific guys).

Crazy thing about the Phils is all their big money FA deals (Wheeler, Harper, Realmuto) have gone well for the most part...and they still have just been hanging around .500 for like five years now.

As far as thins offseasons big ticket items, Castellanos (117 OPS+, -8 DRS, 0.2 WAR) and Schwarber (106 OPS+, -2 DRS, 0.3 WAR) haven't quite hit enough to offset their brutal defense so far, accounting for almost half of the Phillies MLB worst -22 DRS to start the season. 

[Brewcrew82]

Agree wholeheartedly on all counts. Just goes to show how we're lucky enough to be able to watch the best (healthy) starting pitcher and relief pitcher in all of baseball on a regular basis. When you consider our history of developing pitchers, it's all the more remarkable. 

[Brewcrew82]

Agree wholeheartedly on all counts. Just goes to show how we're lucky enough to be able to watch the best (healthy) starting pitcher and relief pitcher in all of baseball on a regular basis. When you consider our history of developing pitchers, it's all the more remarkable. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Crazy thing about the Phils is all their big money FA deals (Wheeler, Harper, Realmuto) have gone well for the most part...and they still have just been hanging around .500 for like five years now.

As far as thins offseasons big ticket items, Castellanos (117 OPS+, -8 DRS, 0.2 WAR) and Schwarber (106 OPS+, -2 DRS, 0.3 WAR) haven't quite hit enough to offset their brutal defense so far, accounting for almost half of the Phillies MLB worst -22 DRS to start the season. 

Yeah, they're good at making the big moves but are terrible at making complementary moves to build a good roster, as evidenced by their bullpen woes almost every season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Crazy thing about the Phils is all their big money FA deals (Wheeler, Harper, Realmuto) have gone well for the most part...and they still have just been hanging around .500 for like five years now.

As far as thins offseasons big ticket items, Castellanos (117 OPS+, -8 DRS, 0.2 WAR) and Schwarber (106 OPS+, -2 DRS, 0.3 WAR) haven't quite hit enough to offset their brutal defense so far, accounting for almost half of the Phillies MLB worst -22 DRS to start the season. 

Yeah, they're good at making the big moves but are terrible at making complementary moves to build a good roster, as evidenced by their bullpen woes almost every season.

[Joseph Zarr]

Great stuff @Tim Muma. Always nice to see behind the curtain. We see he's dominant. This data really paints that picture. It's hard to fathom how far he has progressed since his first couple seasons. It's a bit like a Giannis evolution curve, honestly.

When I see the ongoing greatness in Burnes and Hader, I typically have one thought rise to prominence:

Thank goodness the Brewers personnel group understood what they had when fans were proposing trade after trade during their 'struggles' or 'coming of age' seasons or when it appeared the Brewers needed the proverbial something else to cross the threshold. I remember those conversations. When you have greatness, in my humble opinion, in a small market like Milwaukee, you need to develop that greatness.; add to it and support it not ship it away.

This 2022 season kind of bespeaks: How much greater can they become?!? It's simply befuddling and, well, awesome.

[Joseph Zarr]

Great stuff @Tim Muma. Always nice to see behind the curtain. We see he's dominant. This data really paints that picture. It's hard to fathom how far he has progressed since his first couple seasons. It's a bit like a Giannis evolution curve, honestly.

When I see the ongoing greatness in Burnes and Hader, I typically have one thought rise to prominence:

Thank goodness the Brewers personnel group understood what they had when fans were proposing trade after trade during their 'struggles' or 'coming of age' seasons or when it appeared the Brewers needed the proverbial something else to cross the threshold. I remember those conversations. When you have greatness, in my humble opinion, in a small market like Milwaukee, you need to develop that greatness.; add to it and support it not ship it away.

This 2022 season kind of bespeaks: How much greater can they become?!? It's simply befuddling and, well, awesome.

[igor67]

There is something to said for identifying the talent for sure, but seriously 6 average or way better pitches? Starter after start developing. Random reliever after reliver showing up with average or better results. The Brewers now how to teach pitching at the moment in a way that no other organization can match. I don't know how long those trade secrets will last and it isn't intended to minimize anything about Burnes. More a statement that I think he deserves some extra accolades for going beyond and maybe a recognition that the front office couldn't have predicted this level of success.

[igor67]

There is something to said for identifying the talent for sure, but seriously 6 average or way better pitches? Starter after start developing. Random reliever after reliver showing up with average or better results. The Brewers now how to teach pitching at the moment in a way that no other organization can match. I don't know how long those trade secrets will last and it isn't intended to minimize anything about Burnes. More a statement that I think he deserves some extra accolades for going beyond and maybe a recognition that the front office couldn't have predicted this level of success.