Article: The Weekly: This is The Way

[Brent Sirvio]

After taking care of the St. Louis Cardinals in a white-knuckler on Thursday night, the Milwaukee Brewers led the National League in home runs. As of Saturday morning, they continue to. That is not a misprint.

The Weekly is a column on the Brewers. 'On' may do heavier lifting on some weeks than others. Also, it's a beautiful weekend. Why aren't you out there getting a farmer tan and meat sweats?

I'm as surprised as you are. Of course, this post goes live on Sunday morning and there's plenty of time for the talking heads and Twitters to mention it. But as of Saturday afternoon, it's a shocker. This team, this offensively-challenged Brewers club is currently third in all Major League Baseball with 59 tanks.

By a look at the metrics, that's not a good thing. Not when the batting average is dead middle of the pack (.236, 15th in MLB, 9th in NL). Not when they are hanging around the bottom tier in doubles (11th in NL), strikeouts (also 11th) and a below-league-average on-base percentage (.312, .317).

The Brewers are a ball club bound to three true outcomes. They walk, they strikeout, they, like Big Al, hit dingers. And without a change in offensive approach, they'll be drummed out of the postseason much as they were last October. If there is need for any further confirmation of this, one need not look further than than Friday night's box score: eight strikeouts, four walks, all run-scoring offense in the 9th courtesy a Keston Hiura home run.

We should be happy with the walks and more or less deal with the strikeouts, especially in an era when Ray Charles could don the protective gear and an FTX-branded polo and get 'Way Wharles' tweets at Umpire Scorecards the morning after -- and he's not only blind, he's dead! 

Last month, I wrote about the Brewers as 'Schrödinger's offense' and noted some stats based on counts. Overall, the futility is still present in nearly every one of those metrics, though it's encouraging to see significant improvement in 1-2 counts, and they still essentially bail out of any 0-2 situation. 

Here's a new wrinkle: that NL-leading home run-hitting club hits better when trailing in contests:

Entering Saturday, per Baseball Reference:

Ahead (719 PAs):  .225/.303/.382, 182 K, 66 BB, 25 HR

Behind (491 PAs): .247/.318/.441, 109 K, 43 BB, 21 HR

It's almost as though the team needs to be punched in the mouth to begin asserting itself -- that is, if they muster a response: in losing efforts, the Brewers slouch toward the Mendoza line (.208), boasting a .316 slugging percentage and .108 ISO (league average ISO: .145). Brandon Woodruff, whose patience in the midst of abysmal run support in recent years makes saints look like impetuous threenagers, should start flipping some tables.

If the pitching wavers, and we've seen five pitching injury scares in scarcely two months of season with Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Josh Hader (both to and around him) -- and Luis Perdomo and Woodruff Friday night alone -- or even makes a single mistake, well, what does that sound like?

We've seen more glimpses in recent weeks of this club's ability to put the ball in play, particularly from Omar Narvaez (of whom I have been critical and remain deeply skeptical), Mike Brosseau (credit to Matt Pauley for calling out Brosseau's respectable play at the plate; entering play Saturday, Brosseau in May has hit safely in eight of 12 contests), singles machine Luis Urias and, per usual, Christian Yelich, who in 2022 is apparently doomed to cosplay as 2018 Ryan Braun. Hunter Renfroe's recently-discovered ability to hit the ball to all fields prior to a hamstring-induced trip to the IL has been fun to see.

This is the way: Barrel the ball, put it in play, see what happens when you don't give up easy outs and continually apply stress to pitchers. For many years and on several websites, I've espoused the Royals approach from their pennant- and World Series-winning years: no easy outs, make the pitcher scratch and claw for every retired side, make consistent contact and break through via attrition. We're seeing some of these elements with the walks and even with stealing bases (the Brewers - yes, these Brewers with the delightfully not-fleet-of-foot Rowdy Tellez and Narvaez and Hunter Renfroe, are fifth in Baseball with 30 steals in 42 attempts), but consistently hitting for contact is the elusive piece of the puzzle.

Joey Wiemer isn't walking through the clubhouse doors and saving this club. He's not even on the 40-man. But if he can bring his overall batted ball skills up to his nuke-launching skills, watch out. In 2024 or so, that is.

In the meantime, Brewers brass needs to be honest about some key cogs in this lineup, while coaches continue to try turning the Three True Outcomes Express around. That ship docks no later than early October.

 

Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and ESPN were liberally used in this piece.

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[Frisbee Slider]

Using the Cardinals series as an example, if the Brewers fall behind by four runs then the opposing team will use a less talented relief pitcher. For example, on Friday, Keston hit his home run off Kodi Whitley. Whitley was just recalled from Triple-A and has not been particularly effective in 2022. 

On Saturday, the Brewers plated two runs off TJ McFarland in the 9th to lose 8-3. McFarland’s ERA was 7.31 entering that contest.

Understandably, I believe the Brewers offense is more effective against bad pitchers compared to good pitchers. I don’t think it is fair to say the Brewers offense is simply better when they are losing.

[Frisbee Slider]

Using the Cardinals series as an example, if the Brewers fall behind by four runs then the opposing team will use a less talented relief pitcher. For example, on Friday, Keston hit his home run off Kodi Whitley. Whitley was just recalled from Triple-A and has not been particularly effective in 2022. 

On Saturday, the Brewers plated two runs off TJ McFarland in the 9th to lose 8-3. McFarland’s ERA was 7.31 entering that contest.

Understandably, I believe the Brewers offense is more effective against bad pitchers compared to good pitchers. I don’t think it is fair to say the Brewers offense is simply better when they are losing.

[sveumrules]

Among catchers Omar is 5th in WAR so far this year, 9th in WAR during his time with the Brewers (2020-present) and 8th in WAR since he started getting regular PAs (2017-present).

Outside of 2020, he has been above average with the bat for a catcher every year of his career with his wRC+ ranking 9th since 2017.

At this point he has almost 1,800 PAs with the statistical record of a top ten catcher in MLB. That is some deep rooted skepticism. 

[sveumrules]

Among catchers Omar is 5th in WAR so far this year, 9th in WAR during his time with the Brewers (2020-present) and 8th in WAR since he started getting regular PAs (2017-present).

Outside of 2020, he has been above average with the bat for a catcher every year of his career with his wRC+ ranking 9th since 2017.

At this point he has almost 1,800 PAs with the statistical record of a top ten catcher in MLB. That is some deep rooted skepticism.