Game Thread (5/24/2022): Brewers (Burnes) at Padres (Snell) - 8:40 PM CDT

[yourout]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

The GS split is entire games started by the pitcher, the IP split is while the pitcher was on the mound.

Thanks. It does make sense.

[Brewcrew82]

Aces gonna do what aces gonna do. Now get the guy his second win of the season bullpen!

[sveumrules]

7 minutes ago, yourout said:

Thanks. It does make sense.

I’m pretty sure Run Support is mostly random outside of being on a team that scores a lot of runs.

Like last year Woody got 3rd worst per IP at 2.5 & so far this year he’s 22nd best per IP at 5.9. 

It does seem like lots of times “aces” end up getting less run support (Sheets & deGrom come to mind) but then teams will show out on offense when the #5/6 guy is on the mound.

Wonder if there’s ever been a study to see how much/little run support correlates if at all to quality of pitcher.

[SRB]

You can't let Burnes go another inning with a shorthanded bullpen?

[bulldogboy0733]

The fact that Hoby is in this game tells you that this team is currently operating with smoke and mirrors. 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, bulldogboy0733 said:

The fact that Hoby is in this game tells you that this team is currently operating with smoke and mirrors. 

Just no excuse for not having ethan small up at this point. Whether out of the bullpen or in the rotation. 

[brooks_quichenick]

Now that is a double play, wow!

[SomewhereInTime]

Incredible double play!

[bulldogboy0733]

Nice work

[SomewhereInTime]

3 minutes ago, bulldogboy0733 said:

The fact that Hoby is in this game tells you that this team is currently operating with smoke and mirrors. 

Well the closer isn't with the team and they played an extra innings game yesterday where five relievers pitched.  I don't think there's anyone on the roster so bad you can't turn to them with a three run lead.

[Brewcrew82]

Gott, then Williams? Maybe Kelley if we scratch out another run or two?

[Brewcrew82]

Would be great if Josh does end up rejoining the team for the series in St. Louis. I certainly wouldn't blame him if he doesn't, though. Unlike me, he shouldn't be thinking about baseball. 

[Brewcrew82]

Air Urias taking off from Petco...

[Brewcrew82]

GOTT HIM!

[SomewhereInTime]

38 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I’m pretty sure Run Support is mostly random outside of being on a team that scores a lot of runs.

Like last year Woody got 3rd worst per IP at 2.5 & so far this year he’s 22nd best per IP at 5.9. 

It does seem like lots of times “aces” end up getting less run support (Sheets & deGrom come to mind) but then teams will show out on offense when the #5/6 guy is on the mound.

Wonder if there’s ever been a study to see how much/little run support correlates if at all to quality of pitcher.

I mean if you think about it, you want your ace to be the one who gets the worst run support on the team.  People always talk like it's a bad thing and it is for the individual starter and the individual win stat but nobody I'd rather have on the mound if the brewers score 3 or less runs.

[sveumrules]

41 minutes ago, bulldogboy0733 said:

The fact that Hoby is in this game tells you that this team is currently operating with smoke and mirrors. 

Maybe it’s been smoke & mirrors, but Milner had an 85 ERA- | 80 FIP- entering the game tonight.

He’s mostly been getting the job done.

[Brewcrew82]

Devin! Nice win. Burnes was Burnes. And Tyrone continuing his hot hitting ways. Now to get that series win tomorrow against Darvish, whom we have quite a bit of experience against...

[sveumrules]

No Adames, no Rowdy, no Renfroe, no Hader & we still beat a good team.

Well, I guess that settles it…the Brewers are good enough to win the World Series.

[SomewhereInTime]

14 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

No Adames, no Rowdy, no Renfroe, no Hader & we still beat a good team.

Well, I guess that settles it…the Brewers are good enough to win the World Series.

Until someone hits into a double play tomorrow or they strand a bunch of runners

[Jim French Stepstool]

The bottom of the ninth was a perfect example of the benefit of having a plus-plus changeup, even when you choose not to prioritize it. Definitely in the back of their minds.

[BruisedCrew]

6 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Maybe it’s been smoke & mirrors, but Milner had an 85 ERA- | 80 FIP- entering the game tonight.

He’s mostly been getting the job done.

He has generally been getting the job done but the vast majority of his appearances have been in low leverage situations, either with the team behind (often way behind) or comfortably ahead. 
 

His current WHIP of 1.08 is significantly below his career WHIP and his WHIP with the Brewers last year. He hasn’t done enough to inspire confidence in higher leverage situations. 
 

I’m just as happy to wake up in the morning with a Brewers win than  to stay up until midnight to sit through those stressful innings. 

[endaround]

Milner is getting by by not giving up home runs.  A 6.7% FB/HR rate is not sustainable especially given his career rate is 17.8%. He's basically the definition of a replacement bullpen arm.

[sveumrules]

2 hours ago, endaround said:

Milner is getting by by not giving up home runs.  A 6.7% FB/HR rate is not sustainable especially given his career rate is 17.8%. He's basically the definition of a replacement bullpen arm.

Milner’s xFIP- is 92 so far this year, so even with normalized HR/FB luck his line has been above average.

I don’t think his current 3.24 ERA is sustainable either, but ZiPS projects him at 3.77 rest of season vs a current league average reliever ERA of 3.78.

Between his performance so far this year & what the projections think I’d say it’s entirely possible Milner is closer to average than replacement level.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

19 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Between his performance so far this year & what the projections think I’d say it’s entirely possible Milner is closer to average than replacement level.

Typically, though, the difference stat-wise between average and replacement level for a back-end pen arm is one blowup outing. Personally, watching Milner pitch, it seems we are in danger of that whenever he toes the rubber.

[sveumrules]

2 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Typically, though, the difference stat-wise between average and replacement level is one blowup outing. 

Sure, one blow up outing could push his season line closer to replacement level, but his current ERA- is 79 so he’s got some breathing room.

The projections aren’t quite as volatile though. Even before the season started ZiPS had him down for a 3.83 ERA | 87 ERA-.

StatCast has him at an xERA of 3.07 & his SIERA is 3.47, so those computers don’t think his results this year have been overly luck reliant so far.

Guess it just blows my mind a lil bit there was a whole Free Luke Barker Movement last year with a 2.35 ERA | 11.3 K9 | 1.5 BB9 | 1.3 HR9 line in Nashville, while Milner put up an even better Nashville line of 1.69 ERA | 13.5 K9 | 0.6 BB9 | 0.6 HR9 & has followed that up with a solid start to 2022 at the MLB level, but is still reflexively viewed as some kind of replacement level mop up guy.