Top 100 Prospect Rankings

[Madhawk23]

I see that some of the publication/sites are starting to update their Top 100 prospect rankings this past week.  I don't have a BA subscription, but did I see that they still don't have Wiemer in their Top 100?  How is that even possible?  Am I overhyping this kid because he's a prospect in our farm system, or is BA just missing the boat on him?  MLB Pipeline updated their rankings today, and they have Frelick at 66 and Wiemer at 82.  Honestly, I think those two guys should probably be swapped with their rankings (Wiemer at 66 and Frelick at 82), but hey - what do I know?

Also, I kind of thought that MAYBE we might see a Chourio sighting on one of these updated lists - in that 95-100 range, but I guess they probably want to see a bit more from the kid at A ball before putting him on their list?  

[CheeseheadInQC]

I am guessing the strikeout totals are what is giving some pause on Wiemer. Everything else is there.

[Madhawk23]

Yeah, you might be right.  Maybe that is scaring some of the prospect evaluators off a bit with him?  But boy - he'll follow up one of those games where he has multiple K's with a 3-4 hit performance with a booming home run, and will easily make you forget about that game before where he struck out a couple of times.  

[Brewcrew82]

15 minutes ago, Madhawk23 said:

Yeah, you might be right.  Maybe that is scaring some of the prospect evaluators off a bit with him?  But boy - he'll follow up one of those games where he has multiple K's with a 3-4 hit performance with a booming home run, and will easily make you forget about that game before where he struck out a couple of times.  

What I don't get is how a guy like Gorman from the Cardinals can be a consensus top 30 prospect when he strikes out with virtually the same frequency as Wiemer, who possesses just as much power and is actually a better fielder. To me, that screams of an implicit bias from the people who put these lists together. 

[Smichaelis9]

Chourio is actually at #99 on the new BA rankings! I’m a little surprised by their lack of Wiemer love as well, but they’re the high group on Chourio, so I guess I will cut them some slack ?

[nate82]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

What I don't get is how a guy like Gorman from the Cardinals can be a consensus top 30 prospect when he strikes out with virtually the same frequency as Wiemer, who possesses just as much power and is actually a better fielder. To me, that screams of an implicit bias from the people who put these lists together. 

Gorman has been in the Cardinals system for a bit longer and has a higher pedigree (higher draft slot).  Things like where a player is drafted will play into the top 100 rankings.  Also the rankings are far more conservative on who they put in their top 100.  If you asked the same evaluators about Wiemer versus Gorman you would probably get a consensus that they are very similar.  

The rankings will always have a bias towards players who are either drafted earlier or who were the big bonus players on the international side.  These players will always be in the top 100 before someone like Wiemer and others will be in it.  It took awhile for Burnes to get into the top 100.  It also doesn't help that Wiemer lost a half a year of development due to COVID.  It probably doesn't put him into the top 100 but it is also not helping him either.  Also the players ranked after the top 50 are basically the same players it is whoever likes who the best at that point.

[Madhawk23]

16 minutes ago, Smichaelis9 said:

Chourio is actually at #99 on the new BA rankings! I’m a little surprised by their lack of Wiemer love as well, but they’re the high group on Chourio, so I guess I will cut them some slack ?

Ahhh....I think I must have missed that they had Chourio just inside their Top 100.  Yeah, I guess we'll cut them some slack then on Wiemer.  But still - feels like a MAJOR oversight to not have that guy on your list at this stage.  Hell, I'm not sure if there are 50 better prospects right now in baseball, nevertheless 100!  

[Lathund]

Baseball Prospectus dropped their midseason top 50 today. It features Chourio at 33 and Wiemer at 44. It includes this on Chourio: "Of all the prospects on this list, Chourio might be the one we are most confident will be higher than this come 101 time."

Much of the various rankings of Chourio seems to be a case of "He's only been doing this for a couple of months, we need to see him keep it up. We're very confident he will, but we still need to see it". 

 

 

[RWeeksFan23]

Not sure why Wiemer would be ranked as high as 44. He's been awful lately.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1 hour ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

Not sure why Wiemer would be ranked as high as 44. He's been awful lately.

Because these prospect rankings are not based on only the last couple weeks of results. Wiemer was a stud last year and was very good for a good portion of this season before getting hurt and scuffling a bit since his return. 

[Lathund]

1 hour ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

Not sure why Wiemer would be ranked as high as 44. He's been awful lately.

Prospect rankings aren't about the here and now, but about projecting how good someone will be at their best, usually several years from now. Using a month of minor league stats, especially stats that don't line up with the scouting side, would be a rather terrible way to make a prospect ranking. 

[RWeeksFan23]

Either way there's certainly more than 43 prospects better than him, I probably wouldn't even have him in the top 100.