Article: Eric Lauer: Brewers' Hidden Gem

[Tim Muma]

Cy Young Corbin Burnes and workhorse Brandon Woodruff are the Milwaukee Brewers' pocket aces. Freddy Peralta has the stuff to be the third man in line, and Adrian Houser is often underrated; Eric Lauer has made a case that he should be the final arm in a "Big Three."

After nine appearances (six starts) to begin the 2021 season, Eric Lauer owned a 5.21 ERA and an opponents' OPS of .821. Some may have given up on Lauer as anything more than "just a guy," but the southpaw was about to turn the corner. Following his six-inning, one-run performance Monday night, there's an argument that Lauer is the third-best starting pitcher in Milwaukee. Since June 27, 2021, covering Lauer's last 17 outings (16 starts), he has gone 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 91 innings. Lauer has developed into a true out-getter for the Brewers, though most fans would have difficulty recognizing him on the street.

During that period of 17 appearances, Lauer has the third-lowest opponent batting average (.186), fifth-lowest ERA, and tenth-lowest WHIP in MLB (minimum 50 IP) in MLB. Lauer's success can be partly attributed to increased velocity, leading to an increase in his strikeout percentage (K%). His 23.6 K% during this stretch ranks only 62nd, but it is two percent better than his career mark (21.6%). Throwing straight gas at the top of the strike zone won't hurt his K% in the future.

 

Eric Lauer, 96mph ? pic.twitter.com/hwHB1VW3ee

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 19, 2022

 

The hard-hit percentage has also dipped when hitters put the ball in play. With a career hard-hit rate of 39.1%, the lefty allowed a .303 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). During his last 17 outings, the hard-hit percentage has dropped more than six percent to 32.9%. That has undoubtedly aided in cutting his BABIP down nearly 100 points. There is an element of luck with BABIP as defensive support, park factors, and other "randomness" can create fluctuations with the stat. However, Lauer also deserves credit for some of the improved BABIP, thanks to his pitch mix.

Working with Brewers coaches and the club's "pitching lab," Lauer developed a highly-effective slider he has relied on more frequently. Using FanGraphs' "Pitch Values," Lauer's slider was -3.8 runs below average in his career. Last season, it was at 6.6 runs above average, an increase of almost ten runs in value. His cutter has also gained value, from -3.0 in his career to 3.3 in 2021 and 1.2 after two starts this year.  

In general, Lauer has reduced his use of the four-seam fastball since early last season and kept hitters off-balance with a constant mix of sliders and cutters while utilizing a strategic smattering of changeups and curves. This has allowed Lauer to get more whiffs on pitches in the zone, putting hitters in a hole and resulting in weaker contact. During this stretch, Lauer has an 83.2% Z-contact rate (contact on swings at pitches in the strike zone). That marks a 3.2% drop from his career Z-contact of 86.4%. The combo of more swings and misses - including in the zone - and fewer hard-hit balls has put Lauer in the driver's seat most nights.

Check out his chart from his last start, using the four-seam up and in on lefties (away on righties) while pounding the slider on the opposite corner and down. He had about an even split of four-seam fastballs, sliders, and curveball usage in this outing.

 

Guys like Houser and Peralta are better in some areas despite Lauer's emergence. Houser has a better ERA in the same span (2.25) - the best among Milwaukee's starting five - and rarely gives up home runs. However, he has a 7.3% lower K% and walked batters 3.7% more often than Lauer. Peralta has also walked batters at a 1.3% higher rate but owns a 6.3% better K% since June 27, 2021, and regularly gets far more swings and misses. Of course, Peralta's 4.48 ERA during that time leaves much to be desired.

As for Lauer, there will always be a concern that his BABIP has a natural regression to the mean, resulting in more hits and offensive outbursts from the opposition. He could also see a return to velocity issues and more overall contact by hitters. But as of right now, there are no doubts about his effectiveness on the mound. Consider the company he has been keeping since the end of last June: both 2021 Cy Young Award winners and a pair of Los Angeles Dodgers hurlers who were top-7 vote-getters for the award.

Including tonight, most starts of 5+ IP, one run or fewer since June 27 of last season:

T1. Corbin Burnes & Julio Urias - 11
T3. Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray & Eric Lauer - 10

— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) April 19, 2022

Suppose Lauer continues on his current path (or at least a similar one). In that case, Milwaukee must consider him just a step behind Burnes and Woodruff and far better than your typical fifth starter. His performance would legitimately make him the third-best starter. It also gives Houser and Peralta some good competition to keep fighting to prove their worth in a potentially stacked rotation. Should the Brewers make the playoffs as expected, Lauer could create some difficult decisions for manager Craig Counsell come October. That is a great place to be if you're a Brewers fan.

What do you think the ceiling is for Eric Lauer? Leave your COMMENT in the forum below.  

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[Joseph Zarr]

Preach it @Tim Muma. It's hard to fathom what we have witnessed from Lauer since his return on that brief 2021 IL stint. You paint that picture quite well. 

What's his ceiling? Honestly, I think we might just be scratching the surface. He added a couple upticks in velo this off-season. He's worked in the slider to more effect. He has a legit 4-5 pitch Mix. It's uncanny how he has gone under the radar. For me, the question I legitimately and routinely ask myself these days is:

Have both Houser and Lauer passed Freddy?

Time will tell. We need seasons of consistency. What we've had, imho, is a taste.

[Joseph Zarr]

Preach it @Tim Muma. It's hard to fathom what we have witnessed from Lauer since his return on that brief 2021 IL stint. You paint that picture quite well. 

What's his ceiling? Honestly, I think we might just be scratching the surface. He added a couple upticks in velo this off-season. He's worked in the slider to more effect. He has a legit 4-5 pitch Mix. It's uncanny how he has gone under the radar. For me, the question I legitimately and routinely ask myself these days is:

Have both Houser and Lauer passed Freddy?

Time will tell. We need seasons of consistency. What we've had, imho, is a taste.

[Joseph Zarr]

Preach it @Tim Muma. It's hard to fathom what we have witnessed from Lauer since his return on that brief 2021 IL stint. You paint that picture quite well. 

What's his ceiling? Honestly, I think we might just be scratching the surface. He added a couple upticks in velo this off-season. He's worked in the slider to more effect. He has a legit 4-5 pitch Mix. It's uncanny how he has gone under the radar. For me, the question I legitimately and routinely ask myself these days is:

Have both Houser and Lauer passed Freddy?

Time will tell. We need seasons of consistency. What we've had, imho, is a taste.

[Joseph Zarr]

Preach it @Tim Muma. It's hard to fathom what we have witnessed from Lauer since his return on that brief 2021 IL stint. You paint that picture quite well. 

What's his ceiling? Honestly, I think we might just be scratching the surface. He added a couple upticks in velo this off-season. He's worked in the slider to more effect. He has a legit 4-5 pitch Mix. It's uncanny how he has gone under the radar. For me, the question I legitimately and routinely ask myself these days is:

Have both Houser and Lauer passed Freddy?

Time will tell. We need seasons of consistency. What we've had, imho, is a taste.

[brewmann04]

I really like Eric and think they found a stud Lefty. 

[brewmann04]

I really like Eric and think they found a stud Lefty. 

[brewmann04]

I really like Eric and think they found a stud Lefty. 

[brewmann04]

I really like Eric and think they found a stud Lefty. 

[BrewCrewBBQ]

Let that b zoom.

 

Lauer has been an incredible pickup for the team. Glad he got it figured out, and glad he seemingly has a better head on his shoulders than when he showed up. I remember about losing it when he blamed Omar for his early struggles. That could have been a miscommunication as well, but glad it's well behind him. It is crazy to think about the Milwaukee rotation. There was a day, not that long ago, we (collective fan base) would have killed for any one of the six guys currently in the rotation.

[BrewCrewBBQ]

Let that b zoom.

 

Lauer has been an incredible pickup for the team. Glad he got it figured out, and glad he seemingly has a better head on his shoulders than when he showed up. I remember about losing it when he blamed Omar for his early struggles. That could have been a miscommunication as well, but glad it's well behind him. It is crazy to think about the Milwaukee rotation. There was a day, not that long ago, we (collective fan base) would have killed for any one of the six guys currently in the rotation.

[BrewCrewBBQ]

Let that b zoom.

 

Lauer has been an incredible pickup for the team. Glad he got it figured out, and glad he seemingly has a better head on his shoulders than when he showed up. I remember about losing it when he blamed Omar for his early struggles. That could have been a miscommunication as well, but glad it's well behind him. It is crazy to think about the Milwaukee rotation. There was a day, not that long ago, we (collective fan base) would have killed for any one of the six guys currently in the rotation.

[BrewCrewBBQ]

Let that b zoom.

 

Lauer has been an incredible pickup for the team. Glad he got it figured out, and glad he seemingly has a better head on his shoulders than when he showed up. I remember about losing it when he blamed Omar for his early struggles. That could have been a miscommunication as well, but glad it's well behind him. It is crazy to think about the Milwaukee rotation. There was a day, not that long ago, we (collective fan base) would have killed for any one of the six guys currently in the rotation.

[Frisbee Slider]

In 2020, when Urias had a .608 OPS and Grisham had .808 OPS and won Gold Glove plus Davies had a 2.73 ERA - the trade looked pretty dim. Now, in 2022 the trade looks great. Probably still for both sides despite Grisham’s slow start. 

[Frisbee Slider]

In 2020, when Urias had a .608 OPS and Grisham had .808 OPS and won Gold Glove plus Davies had a 2.73 ERA - the trade looked pretty dim. Now, in 2022 the trade looks great. Probably still for both sides despite Grisham’s slow start. 

[Frisbee Slider]

In 2020, when Urias had a .608 OPS and Grisham had .808 OPS and won Gold Glove plus Davies had a 2.73 ERA - the trade looked pretty dim. Now, in 2022 the trade looks great. Probably still for both sides despite Grisham’s slow start. 

[Frisbee Slider]

In 2020, when Urias had a .608 OPS and Grisham had .808 OPS and won Gold Glove plus Davies had a 2.73 ERA - the trade looked pretty dim. Now, in 2022 the trade looks great. Probably still for both sides despite Grisham’s slow start. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

9 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

In 2020, when Urias had a .608 OPS and Grisham had .808 OPS and won Gold Glove plus Davies had a 2.73 ERA - the trade looked pretty dim. Now, in 2022 the trade looks great. Probably still for both sides despite Grisham’s slow start. 

I think at this point Grisham and Urias have basically cancelled each other out. Grisham looked great in 2020, but was pretty meh last year. Whereas Urias looked like a solid building block last year after a poor 2020 showing, If Urias could have stuck at SS, I think it was an easy win for the Brewers. A little closer if he's a 3B only moving forward. I wouldn't be surprised if they already have him pegged as the 2B of the future, though, once Wong's deal is up. It's easy to forget that he's still only 24. 

Lauer looking like a potential stud lefty starter at only 26 makes this an easy Brewers win. Davies was decent in his one season as a Padre, and was then used as basically a throw-in for the Darvish salary dump trade. He's now getting close to washing out of the league.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

9 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

In 2020, when Urias had a .608 OPS and Grisham had .808 OPS and won Gold Glove plus Davies had a 2.73 ERA - the trade looked pretty dim. Now, in 2022 the trade looks great. Probably still for both sides despite Grisham’s slow start. 

I think at this point Grisham and Urias have basically cancelled each other out. Grisham looked great in 2020, but was pretty meh last year. Whereas Urias looked like a solid building block last year after a poor 2020 showing, If Urias could have stuck at SS, I think it was an easy win for the Brewers. A little closer if he's a 3B only moving forward. I wouldn't be surprised if they already have him pegged as the 2B of the future, though, once Wong's deal is up. It's easy to forget that he's still only 24. 

Lauer looking like a potential stud lefty starter at only 26 makes this an easy Brewers win. Davies was decent in his one season as a Padre, and was then used as basically a throw-in for the Darvish salary dump trade. He's now getting close to washing out of the league.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

9 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

In 2020, when Urias had a .608 OPS and Grisham had .808 OPS and won Gold Glove plus Davies had a 2.73 ERA - the trade looked pretty dim. Now, in 2022 the trade looks great. Probably still for both sides despite Grisham’s slow start. 

I think at this point Grisham and Urias have basically cancelled each other out. Grisham looked great in 2020, but was pretty meh last year. Whereas Urias looked like a solid building block last year after a poor 2020 showing, If Urias could have stuck at SS, I think it was an easy win for the Brewers. A little closer if he's a 3B only moving forward. I wouldn't be surprised if they already have him pegged as the 2B of the future, though, once Wong's deal is up. It's easy to forget that he's still only 24. 

Lauer looking like a potential stud lefty starter at only 26 makes this an easy Brewers win. Davies was decent in his one season as a Padre, and was then used as basically a throw-in for the Darvish salary dump trade. He's now getting close to washing out of the league.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

9 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

In 2020, when Urias had a .608 OPS and Grisham had .808 OPS and won Gold Glove plus Davies had a 2.73 ERA - the trade looked pretty dim. Now, in 2022 the trade looks great. Probably still for both sides despite Grisham’s slow start. 

I think at this point Grisham and Urias have basically cancelled each other out. Grisham looked great in 2020, but was pretty meh last year. Whereas Urias looked like a solid building block last year after a poor 2020 showing, If Urias could have stuck at SS, I think it was an easy win for the Brewers. A little closer if he's a 3B only moving forward. I wouldn't be surprised if they already have him pegged as the 2B of the future, though, once Wong's deal is up. It's easy to forget that he's still only 24. 

Lauer looking like a potential stud lefty starter at only 26 makes this an easy Brewers win. Davies was decent in his one season as a Padre, and was then used as basically a throw-in for the Darvish salary dump trade. He's now getting close to washing out of the league.

[Joseph Zarr]

Well @Tim Muma, Mr. Lauer sure gave you a start on this fine April 24th Sunday that would age this article quite well in the near term. Tip of the glass to you and the timing!

[Joseph Zarr]

Well @Tim Muma, Mr. Lauer sure gave you a start on this fine April 24th Sunday that would age this article quite well in the near term. Tip of the glass to you and the timing!

[Joseph Zarr]

Well @Tim Muma, Mr. Lauer sure gave you a start on this fine April 24th Sunday that would age this article quite well in the near term. Tip of the glass to you and the timing!

[Joseph Zarr]

Well @Tim Muma, Mr. Lauer sure gave you a start on this fine April 24th Sunday that would age this article quite well in the near term. Tip of the glass to you and the timing!