Article: Brewers Winning Despite Struggles: A Good Thing?

[Tim Muma]

Baseball fans and experts look to correlate "the numbers" to team success more than in any other sport. The statistical analysis over an entire season will often net expected results. However, those wins and losses don't always fall in line over shorter periods. This season, the Milwaukee Brewers' first ten games have the feel of something not adding up – and it could be a good thing in the long run.

Milwaukee's 6-5 win over the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday improved the Brewers' record to 5-5 to open 2022. That's a perfectly fine record over the first ten contests, but if you listened to many fans or even watched a few games yourself, you might think they had the worst record in MLB. Much of the trepidation about the team stems from various statistical categories – individually and as a team.

This is where finding a path to victory through struggle is valuable, as technically, the win is the only "stat" that matters in the end. The offense and pitching staff have their concerns through the first ten games. To look at it positively, despite the seemingly terrible struggles, the Brewers entered Monday with a .500 and lots of room for improvement.

Most of the complaints early on have been pointed toward the bats. Not only has the 2022 lineup gotten off to a slow start, but the anxiety includes a carry-over effect from the 2021 campaign. Fans, in particular, clearly remember the listless offense to close out the regular season and knock the Brewers out of the playoffs.

Entering play Monday, Milwaukee ranked 27th out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored at 3.10 runs per game. A more significant concern is the four games the Brewers tallied one or zero runs. Similar problems that existed last season have crept up early in 2022, namely the inability to deliver with men in scoring position and hitting against left-handed pitching.

Milwaukee's .206 average with runners in scoring position (RISP) placed them 24th through Sunday's games. Few things frustrate fans more than a team putting men on second or third with less than two outs and failing to score. The success with RISP can fluctuate year to year and change as weeks become months, but that doesn't ease the minds of Brewers fans right now.

The same goes for facing lefties on the hill. After scuffling against southpaws last season, Milwaukee's front office looked to address the issue with some lefty killers. After those first ten contests, the Brewers are 23rd in OPS versus left-handers (.565) with a slash line of .192/.252/.313. Milwaukee's two shutouts this year came against left-handed starters, with the team starting 1-3 when an opponent starts a southpaw.

Once again, despite these two significant issues early on, the Brewers have found their way to a 5-5 record. Imagine what they could start doing across 20, or 40 games should the offense improve marginally in these couple of areas. The turnaround likely happens when some of the individual hitters find their strokes.

People are focusing heavily on Christian Yelich at the plate, but many players are cold through 10 team games:

It doesn't matter how bad you think any of these hitters are; these will not be the final stat lines.

• Willy Adames will not hit .189 or only slug .324 in a season. He is a career .260 hitter with a .441 SLG.
• Lorenzo Cain is at the end of his career, but a .150 OBP and 2 OPS+ (100 is average) aren't happening by the season's end. His worst numbers in those categories (65+ games) have been a .310 OBP and 80 OPS+. Not good, but nothing close to what he's at now.
• Omar Narvaez has never had an average below .266 in a full season
• Hunter Renfroe might always have a low OBP, but a .273 SLG and 59 OPS+ would be unimaginable for him. In his four seasons playing 115 or more games, he owns a .490 SLG and 107 OPS+ while averaging 29 HR.
• Kolten Wong with a sub-.200 AVG, .240 OBP, and 60 OPS+ will not last. His career marks are .261 AVG, .332 OBP, and 96 OPS+.
• Yelich's OBP is robust, but his .200 AVG and .300 SLG are well below his career-worst marks in 2021. He hit .248 last year with a .373 SLG (and he's already hitting more balls better this year).

Consider all of those players underperforming in a big way through Sunday, and Milwaukee still finished with a .500 record over ten games. Only Rowdy Tellez has produced at an above-expected level, so it's not like other bats in the lineup are carrying the quiet ones. And sure, someone like Cain may not reach respectable output levels, but to think each player above will continue hitting this way into June and July – that's a giant leap of (negative) faith.

So yes, as planned, the pitching is carrying the club on most nights; however, the hurlers have not been infallible. One could take that as a negative (they won't be as good as last season) or another positive, in that there is still room for improvement. The most prominent examples are Freddy Peralta and Devin Williams.

Peralta owns an 11.57 ERA through two starts with a 2.29 WHIP and 12.9 H/9. Again, minimal sample size, so it could mean nothing. But Milwaukee started 5-5 despite his rough outings. Meanwhile, the Brewers somehow survived a pair of implosions by Williams and won both games he struggled in. Williams has allowed six walks, five hits, and four earned runs in his three innings (12.00 ERA, 2.25 WHIP). His performance certainly raises red flags for the usual 8th-inning reliever, but the club has still found ways to win, and he's too talented to pitch THAT poorly throughout the season.

Does this make you feel any better? Especially offensively, there is a ton of room between their current situation and the ceiling. They don't even need to reach the ceiling to rack up more runs, just a midway point. Everything gets blown up early in the season, and it is easy to see the problems and think of worst-case scenarios. The facts remain that these will NOT be the final statistics, and with all the ugly numbers, the Brewers started 5-5 with 152 games to play. They are still the best team in the NL Central and a World Series contender.

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[Seth Stohs]

Winning any way is good. Winning pretty. Winning ugly. Winning by blowouts. Winning with shutouts. Winning despite struggling is great! You don't want to bury yourself too far back in the division early in the season, so wins are always good. And yes, it's encouraging for when things do come together. 

[Seth Stohs]

Winning any way is good. Winning pretty. Winning ugly. Winning by blowouts. Winning with shutouts. Winning despite struggling is great! You don't want to bury yourself too far back in the division early in the season, so wins are always good. And yes, it's encouraging for when things do come together. 

[Seth Stohs]

Winning any way is good. Winning pretty. Winning ugly. Winning by blowouts. Winning with shutouts. Winning despite struggling is great! You don't want to bury yourself too far back in the division early in the season, so wins are always good. And yes, it's encouraging for when things do come together. 

[Seth Stohs]

Winning any way is good. Winning pretty. Winning ugly. Winning by blowouts. Winning with shutouts. Winning despite struggling is great! You don't want to bury yourself too far back in the division early in the season, so wins are always good. And yes, it's encouraging for when things do come together.