Article: The Weekly: Mythological catchers

[Brent Sirvio]

"If the deeds of an actual historical figure proclaim him to have been a hero, the builders of his legend will invent for him appropriate adventures in depth." -- Joseph Campbell, The Hero with a Thousand Faces

In the good times, it's remarkably easy to ignore problems. When hope meets fulfillment -- Do you believe in miracles? Morgan, a smash up the middle, base hit to center! Wisconsin, we've got a room at the top of the world tonight! She said yes! -- who wants to think about the negative?

 

Green Bay Packers fans were deluded [and this is where I could place a period] into thinking that Mike McCarthy was a quarterback whisperer and Ted Thompson a sort of demigod when in reality, the team won a single Super Bowl despite the former's buffoonery and lost many more chances at one as a direct result of it. They held onto that idea because Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers played exceptionally well for a long enough time. The generations that remembered the 70s and 80s aged out from being peak fans. Now, younger Packers fans do not remember when Lambeau Field was a simple bowl, an oval dumpster containing a fire worthy of its location.

Milwaukee Brewers fans face a similar, tantalizing stupor. Now that we have arrived at a time when the club is perennially competitive and has been involved in October baseball for an unprecedented four consecutive seasons, fans -- and perhaps some of the front office -- have become convinced of some myths about their club.

Compare these two players:

Player A: 280 PA, .238/.307/.347, 12 2B, 5 HR, 11 GIDP, 30 RBI, 24 BB, 57 K, -0.548 WPA

Player B: 258 PA, .219/.349/.381, 8 2B, 9 HR, 6 GIDP, 24 RBI, 43 BB, 57 K, 1.337 WPA

They're both not very good at the plate, but one gets on base reasonably well and doesn't get more guys than himself out at once by half.

Player B was Dan Vogelbach last season. Player A was Omar Narvaez from June 15 through the end of the 2021 regular season. Many of us ignored that his offensive game completely disappeared because the Brewers played very strong June-July-August baseball. There was also the fact that Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura's bats, in particular, remained MIA, and the pitching rotation was all-time great. 

The Brewers can develop catchers. They cannot -- and they should not -- reconstruct them.

Since Jonathan Lucroy left the Brewers in 2016, the Brewers have featured Manny Piña, Jett Bandy, Andrew Susac, Erik Kratz, Luke Maile, Jacob Nottingham, and Yasmani Grandal behind the plate. Stephen Vogt spent most of his time as a Brewer injured; Pedro Severino's career reclamation project with the Crew was largely the byproduct of better yet banned pharmacology.

Piña's defense was never in question. Aside from having a flair for the dramatic and being a beloved clubhouse stalwart by teammates and fans alike, his bat has always been beneath league average. In that respect, you knew what you were getting with him and could marshal resources accordingly.

Bandy, Susac, and Maile were barely major league-caliber players. Kratz, a Brewer folk hero for his triumphant 2018 NLDS, was traded for C.J. Hinojosa and Hinojosa continues to bounce around the minors. Grandal bet on himself in 2019 and cashed in with the White Sox, where age would appear to be catching up to him finally. 

If the Brewers were truly good at catcher fixer-upper projects, they wouldn't have needed seven different catchers in the last five years, and Narvaez would have something to show for his Brewer career beyond backing into an All-Star because Yadier Molina recused himself from the proceedings. Further, if the Brewers wanted a strong defensive catcher with whatever they get from that catcher as a bonus, they should have kept Piña. Narvaez' defense may have improved by the metrics, but many of those metrics are still below average; while his skill as a receiver did improve in 2020, he reverted in 2021.

There's a reason the Mariners were all too happy to move Narvaez for little more than a bucket of baseballs in 2019: the Brewers paid him to do nothing with his bat in 2020, nearly $1.5M per (BRef) win above replacement in 2021 and he's scheduled to make $5M this season. Last year, the only 5-bWAR players on the Brewers' roster were Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, which says more about the Brewer offense than anything, but expecting Narvaez to pull a Salvador Perez (5.3 bWAR in 2021) is expecting far too much. Plainly put, Narvaez represents a sunk cost.

Mario Feliciano should be ready to take over behind the plate in 2023, and Jeferson Quero, the Brewers' No. 5 prospect, shows considerable promise further up the pipeline. Still, for a team that has deep October and even World Series aspirations, hope doesn't help them right now.

Neither do myths.

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[Frisbee Slider]

Omar was the ninth most valuable catcher in baseball in 2021 according to WAR. Over the course of a season, that seems pretty good to me. Omar had an .805 OPS against RHP pitching in 2021, which is what he is meant to do.
 

Feliciano doesn’t have an extra base hit in Nashville yet through 25 PA. 
 

Overall, I’m pleased with how Milwaukee has handled the catcher position in recent years.

[Frisbee Slider]

Omar was the ninth most valuable catcher in baseball in 2021 according to WAR. Over the course of a season, that seems pretty good to me. Omar had an .805 OPS against RHP pitching in 2021, which is what he is meant to do.
 

Feliciano doesn’t have an extra base hit in Nashville yet through 25 PA. 
 

Overall, I’m pleased with how Milwaukee has handled the catcher position in recent years.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Omar was the ninth most valuable catcher in baseball in 2021 according to WAR. Over the course of a season, that seems pretty good to me. Omar had an .805 OPS against RHP pitching in 2021, which is what he is meant to do.
 

Feliciano doesn’t have an extra base hit in Nashville yet through 25 PA. 
 

Overall, I’m pleased with how Milwaukee has handled the catcher position in recent years.

Right. The Narvaez hate in this article seems incredibly nitpicky and misplaced. Other than not hitting much in the pandemic year, he's been good. I'd say he's a step below Grandal, but it's a small step. He's improved his defense to the point where it is a positive. Regardless of what a stupid site like Fangraphs says, he's a top 10 MLB catcher. Not so bad for a bag of ball trade.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

5 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Omar was the ninth most valuable catcher in baseball in 2021 according to WAR. Over the course of a season, that seems pretty good to me. Omar had an .805 OPS against RHP pitching in 2021, which is what he is meant to do.
 

Feliciano doesn’t have an extra base hit in Nashville yet through 25 PA. 
 

Overall, I’m pleased with how Milwaukee has handled the catcher position in recent years.

Right. The Narvaez hate in this article seems incredibly nitpicky and misplaced. Other than not hitting much in the pandemic year, he's been good. I'd say he's a step below Grandal, but it's a small step. He's improved his defense to the point where it is a positive. Regardless of what a stupid site like Fangraphs says, he's a top 10 MLB catcher. Not so bad for a bag of ball trade.

[sveumrules]

Narvaez was 4th in framing runs (+8.8) last year & posted +3 DRS, what metrics are you seeing that have him below average?

Since Stearns & company took over Brewers catchers are 2nd in MLB in WAR, better than Posey & the Giants, better than JTR & the Phil’s, way better than Sal Perez & the Royals, etc…

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2022&month=35&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31

[sveumrules]

Narvaez was 4th in framing runs (+8.8) last year & posted +3 DRS, what metrics are you seeing that have him below average?

Since Stearns & company took over Brewers catchers are 2nd in MLB in WAR, better than Posey & the Giants, better than JTR & the Phil’s, way better than Sal Perez & the Royals, etc…

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2022&month=35&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2016-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31

[sveumrules]

Narvaez put up 2.8 fWAR for 2.5 million dollars in 2021, that is an incredible value not a sunk cost.

[sveumrules]

Narvaez put up 2.8 fWAR for 2.5 million dollars in 2021, that is an incredible value not a sunk cost.

[Brent Sirvio]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Right. The Narvaez hate in this article seems incredibly nitpicky and misplaced. Other than not hitting much in the pandemic year, he's been good. I'd say he's a step below Grandal, but it's a small step. He's improved his defense to the point where it is a positive. Regardless of what a stupid site like Fangraphs says, he's a top 10 MLB catcher. Not so bad for a bag of ball trade.

For offense, defense, upside/team control or any or all of the above: Realmuto, Perez, Garver, Molina, Contreras, Will Smith, Sean Murphy, d'Arnaud, Stephenson, Maldonado, Joey Bart, Mejia...

If Narvaez is top-10, he's #10. But I would take any of the above over Narvaez.

##

Narvaez' OPS against RHP is inflated by his outsized April sample. The more he played, following the Brewers' 2021 offense as a whole, the more he was exposed and the more he was exposed at the plate, the more he regressed behind it.

[Brent Sirvio]

2 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

Right. The Narvaez hate in this article seems incredibly nitpicky and misplaced. Other than not hitting much in the pandemic year, he's been good. I'd say he's a step below Grandal, but it's a small step. He's improved his defense to the point where it is a positive. Regardless of what a stupid site like Fangraphs says, he's a top 10 MLB catcher. Not so bad for a bag of ball trade.

For offense, defense, upside/team control or any or all of the above: Realmuto, Perez, Garver, Molina, Contreras, Will Smith, Sean Murphy, d'Arnaud, Stephenson, Maldonado, Joey Bart, Mejia...

If Narvaez is top-10, he's #10. But I would take any of the above over Narvaez.

##

Narvaez' OPS against RHP is inflated by his outsized April sample. The more he played, following the Brewers' 2021 offense as a whole, the more he was exposed and the more he was exposed at the plate, the more he regressed behind it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 minutes ago, Brent Sirvio said:

For offense, defense, upside/team control or any or all of the above: Realmuto, Perez, Garver, Molina, Contreras, Will Smith, Sean Murphy, d'Arnaud, Stephenson, Maldonado, Joey Bart, Mejia...

If Narvaez is top-10, he's #10. But I would take any of the above over Narvaez.

##

Narvaez' OPS against RHP is inflated by his outsized April sample. The more he played, following the Brewers' 2021 offense as a whole, the more he was exposed and the more he was exposed at the plate, the more he regressed behind it.

Mejia? Maldonado? The current version of Molina? Really?

Agree to disagree I suppose. I just thought your article was being unfairly harsh on a guy who's proven to be a solid, affordable backstop. It isn't exactly an easy position to fill.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

8 minutes ago, Brent Sirvio said:

For offense, defense, upside/team control or any or all of the above: Realmuto, Perez, Garver, Molina, Contreras, Will Smith, Sean Murphy, d'Arnaud, Stephenson, Maldonado, Joey Bart, Mejia...

If Narvaez is top-10, he's #10. But I would take any of the above over Narvaez.

##

Narvaez' OPS against RHP is inflated by his outsized April sample. The more he played, following the Brewers' 2021 offense as a whole, the more he was exposed and the more he was exposed at the plate, the more he regressed behind it.

Mejia? Maldonado? The current version of Molina? Really?

Agree to disagree I suppose. I just thought your article was being unfairly harsh on a guy who's proven to be a solid, affordable backstop. It isn't exactly an easy position to fill.

[sveumrules]

How is Narvaez April sample outsized?

His PAs by month were 79, 52, 82, 76, 79, and 77.

The April sample was the same size as every other mon-May month.

Why say it was inflated by April (972 OPS) & not that it was deflated by September (427 OPS)?

Better yet, why slice it up into smaller unreliable samples at all?

Last year Omar posted an .805 OPS vs RHP, since 2018 Omar has posted a .804 OPS vs RHP, that’s probably the best estimate of his true talent level vs RHP.

Also curious what metrics had Omar below average behind the plate in 2021 & now regressing as the year went on to boot?

[sveumrules]

How is Narvaez April sample outsized?

His PAs by month were 79, 52, 82, 76, 79, and 77.

The April sample was the same size as every other mon-May month.

Why say it was inflated by April (972 OPS) & not that it was deflated by September (427 OPS)?

Better yet, why slice it up into smaller unreliable samples at all?

Last year Omar posted an .805 OPS vs RHP, since 2018 Omar has posted a .804 OPS vs RHP, that’s probably the best estimate of his true talent level vs RHP.

Also curious what metrics had Omar below average behind the plate in 2021 & now regressing as the year went on to boot?

[Frisbee Slider]

2021 salaries: 

Realmuto: $20 million

Perez: $14.2 million

Molina: $9 million 

d’Arnaud: $8 million

Contreras: $6.65 million 

Maldanado: $3.5 million 

Narvaez: $2.5 million

Dollar for dollar, I think Omar maybe among the more productive catchers on this list. Remember, he is only supposed to hit RHP. Anything more is gravy.

[Frisbee Slider]

2021 salaries: 

Realmuto: $20 million

Perez: $14.2 million

Molina: $9 million 

d’Arnaud: $8 million

Contreras: $6.65 million 

Maldanado: $3.5 million 

Narvaez: $2.5 million

Dollar for dollar, I think Omar maybe among the more productive catchers on this list. Remember, he is only supposed to hit RHP. Anything more is gravy.

[Frisbee Slider]

2021 salaries: 

Realmuto: $20 million

Perez: $14.2 million

Molina: $9 million 

d’Arnaud: $8 million

Contreras: $6.65 million 

Maldanado: $3.5 million 

Narvaez: $2.5 million

Dollar for dollar, I think Omar maybe among the more productive catchers on this list. Remember, he is only supposed to hit RHP. Anything more is gravy.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think part of the problem with the article is a misconception of what the "myths" actually are, starting even with the Packers examples (McCarthy's reputation largely centered around his quarterback school, which was eliminated by a later CBA and was always kind of looked at as a good game planner who was a gameday liability, and Thompson's was his draft record, which was stellar until he lost his fastball at the end). The Brewers' involving catchers centers solely around defense, not hitting, specifically pitch framing improvements. Fangraphs had Narvaez as the sixth best defensive catcher in 2020 and the fourth best in 2021 after being a definite negative before that, so I think the Brewers' reputation in that area has proven justified.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think part of the problem with the article is a misconception of what the "myths" actually are, starting even with the Packers examples (McCarthy's reputation largely centered around his quarterback school, which was eliminated by a later CBA and was always kind of looked at as a good game planner who was a gameday liability, and Thompson's was his draft record, which was stellar until he lost his fastball at the end). The Brewers' involving catchers centers solely around defense, not hitting, specifically pitch framing improvements. Fangraphs had Narvaez as the sixth best defensive catcher in 2020 and the fourth best in 2021 after being a definite negative before that, so I think the Brewers' reputation in that area has proven justified.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think part of the problem with the article is a misconception of what the "myths" actually are, starting even with the Packers examples (McCarthy's reputation largely centered around his quarterback school, which was eliminated by a later CBA and was always kind of looked at as a good game planner who was a gameday liability, and Thompson's was his draft record, which was stellar until he lost his fastball at the end). The Brewers' involving catchers centers solely around defense, not hitting, specifically pitch framing improvements. Fangraphs had Narvaez as the sixth best defensive catcher in 2020 and the fourth best in 2021 after being a definite negative before that, so I think the Brewers' reputation in that area has proven justified.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I think part of the problem with the article is a misconception of what the "myths" actually are, starting even with the Packers examples (McCarthy's reputation largely centered around his quarterback school, which was eliminated by a later CBA and was always kind of looked at as a good game planner who was a gameday liability, and Thompson's was his draft record, which was stellar until he lost his fastball at the end). The Brewers' involving catchers centers solely around defense, not hitting, specifically pitch framing improvements. Fangraphs had Narvaez as the sixth best defensive catcher in 2020 and the fourth best in 2021 after being a definite negative before that, so I think the Brewers' reputation in that area has proven justified.

[Joseph Zarr]

Bold article @Brent Sirvio. I appreciate the discussions it is provoking in the comment sections! And, I thank you for your thoughts and elocution.

I have to go the way of my good cohorts @CheeseheadInQC, @sveumrules, and @Ron Robinsons Beard: I fairly quickly and easily disagree with your premise and conclusions. I would also point out, and I believe it is worth mentioning: when you win a Cy Young with a young Ace having the best season of his career and your entire starting staff has outlier seasons of excellence the catcher definitely plays a part and deserves some accolades in that ring of successes and celebrations. From a Brewers fan perspective, 2021 was a year to celebrate after Narvaez's ho-hum 2020. But, really, on a personal level: I simply do not place judgments of any kind on the COVID year that was 2020. The world was unhinged, a true mess, and athletic routines were up-ended just as all our lives experienced the same. 

When I look at the Brewers roster, and when I watch Brewers games, Omar Narvaez and his overall play is very very far down the list of things I complain about. The true sunk cost, as it currently plays out, on this Brewers roster pretty clearly resides in the left field grass batting third in the lineup. ?

[Joseph Zarr]

Bold article @Brent Sirvio. I appreciate the discussions it is provoking in the comment sections! And, I thank you for your thoughts and elocution.

I have to go the way of my good cohorts @CheeseheadInQC, @sveumrules, and @Ron Robinsons Beard: I fairly quickly and easily disagree with your premise and conclusions. I would also point out, and I believe it is worth mentioning: when you win a Cy Young with a young Ace having the best season of his career and your entire starting staff has outlier seasons of excellence the catcher definitely plays a part and deserves some accolades in that ring of successes and celebrations. From a Brewers fan perspective, 2021 was a year to celebrate after Narvaez's ho-hum 2020. But, really, on a personal level: I simply do not place judgments of any kind on the COVID year that was 2020. The world was unhinged, a true mess, and athletic routines were up-ended just as all our lives experienced the same. 

When I look at the Brewers roster, and when I watch Brewers games, Omar Narvaez and his overall play is very very far down the list of things I complain about. The true sunk cost, as it currently plays out, on this Brewers roster pretty clearly resides in the left field grass batting third in the lineup. ?

[Joseph Zarr]

Bold article @Brent Sirvio. I appreciate the discussions it is provoking in the comment sections! And, I thank you for your thoughts and elocution.

I have to go the way of my good cohorts @CheeseheadInQC, @sveumrules, and @Ron Robinsons Beard: I fairly quickly and easily disagree with your premise and conclusions. I would also point out, and I believe it is worth mentioning: when you win a Cy Young with a young Ace having the best season of his career and your entire starting staff has outlier seasons of excellence the catcher definitely plays a part and deserves some accolades in that ring of successes and celebrations. From a Brewers fan perspective, 2021 was a year to celebrate after Narvaez's ho-hum 2020. But, really, on a personal level: I simply do not place judgments of any kind on the COVID year that was 2020. The world was unhinged, a true mess, and athletic routines were up-ended just as all our lives experienced the same. 

When I look at the Brewers roster, and when I watch Brewers games, Omar Narvaez and his overall play is very very far down the list of things I complain about. The true sunk cost, as it currently plays out, on this Brewers roster pretty clearly resides in the left field grass batting third in the lineup. ?