Extreme splits

[Herm]

Going into today's game, Braun has an extreme split of 1.753 OPS vs lefties (in 36 at bats) and .758 OPS vs righties (in 111 at bats). As a comparison, Hart has a more balanced split of .953 OPS vs lefties (86 at bats) and .877 OPS vs righties (145 at bats).

 

I know Braun's vs lefties is an extremely small sample, but is pretty consistent with what his splits looked like at AAA (going from memory).

 

I wonder if one proflile tends to be more predictive of long-term success -- meaning is Braun's production more likely to be fluky since it is largely influence by such domination of lefties. Any historical comparisons or patterns that would shed some light on this?

[rluzinski]

He would need way more ABs before we could presume such an extreme split. You can find his splits in the minors here:

 

LINK

 

Not very many AB there either, though.

[1992casey]

Aren't we supposed to assume a 'league average' split when samples are small? How would we determine that?

[rluzinski]

Aren't we supposed to assume a 'league average' split when samples are small? How would we determine that?

 

You might be tempted to look at the league splits. Here they are for 2006:

 [b] PA BA OBP SLG OPS[/b] vs RHP as RH 74473 .264 .322 .419 .741 vs RHP as LH 62692 .277 .352 .449 .801 vs LHP as RH 37975 .275 .346 .442 .788 vs LHP as LH 12931 .248 .319 .392 .711

ML Batting Splits: 2006

 

Looks like the league average split is around .060 - .070 OPS? Nope? There's a selection bias because of platoons and pinch hitting. The actual platoon advantage is greater.

 

"The Book" compensates for this in their platoon chapter:

 

The Book: Platoons

 

Casey, you really need to just buy the book. It's a goldmind of information. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[JoeHova]

well, his split against lefties went even higher now.

 

I noticed this a couple weeks ago, but I agree that it's way too soon to worry about it.